2017 Football Advanced Stats & Analysis thread

[Darth Snow]

I like to keep tabs on what the stats geeks think of our team as the season goes on, and it's time for this year's edition!

SBN's Bill Connelly is more or less the public leader of this stuff. Here's a synopsis of his updated preview of us:

Biggest 2017 game: Take your pick — there are eight virtual tossups on the schedule. The trip to UCLA (Sept. 30) is particularly big, though, as it kicks off a run of six virtual tossups in a row.

Summary: Big-time football returned to Boulder in 2016, and with so many tossup games, CU is only a couple of new pieces or good breaks from making another run at nine or 10 wins. Of course, the Buffs are a couple of bad breaks from seeing that win total cut in half. Big year ahead

https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...olorado-football-2017-preview-schedule-roster

However, the first article that reminded me it was FOOTBALL time was this breakdown of our offense along with Montez:

Montez and the Colorado spread run game
The offense that longtime MacIntyre assistant and QB coach Brian Lindgren and Darrin Chiaverine have built in Boulder requires “a very particular set of skills” to execute properly. They now frequently utilize three and four-receiver formations but still make the “power” run scheme a foundational piece of the offense.
The key to successfully running “power” from spread sets is having a QB that can run the ball and run the ball between the tackles. They started to build this offense for Sefo Liufau, a 6’4” 230 pound scrapper but found that 6’5” 225 pound freshman Steven Montez was also quite capable.

Perhaps the best components to that scheme are the popular “power toss read” play that Clemson made famous a year ago as well as the “counter” run that goes along with it. The toss-read is a nasty adjunct to the spread staple “power-read” play because it prevents the defense from aligning their front to defend one or the other. Teams often like to defend power-read by setting their 3-technique tackle opposite the running back, which frees up the DE who’s being read to stay wide to force a QB keeper while making it harder for the OL to reach the linebackers:

keep reading for more (and pictures/video) of Montez and our running/short passing game.

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2...-in-the-hole-for-2017-steven-montez-macintyre

Another article that grabbed my attention was this one, which is more general: https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2...ge-football-big-plays-efficiency-five-factors

It's a long, complicated read that dives into work by Kenpom (basketball advanced stats legend) on three point defense. I'm sure @Goose and @jgisland and others will love that part. For me, what jumped out to me was this conclusion:

Efficiency is everything in college football. Explosiveness is too random to rely on without efficiency.

He found that explosiveness was not something you could predict as "inherent" in an offense. Instead, explosive plays just happen every so often. So, setting aside sheer talent and only looking at offensive design, the most important thing for an offense in generating big plays is staying on the field.

I liked this because that's basically HCMM's philosophy. Last year, we weren't very explosive, but we were relatively efficient, always on the field, and ran lots of plays. I think you can consider that a success. If we can maintain that efficiency this year, look out!

Of course, I could be too dumb to understand what he was doing in that article, but I think I grasped the edges of it.

 

[Buffnik]

Great stuff!

If we look at the two most successful coaches in college football, Saban and Meyer, this is exactly what they emphasize. They have offenses that keep their defense fresh while wearing down the opposing defense by staying on the field. But what really separates them is that no one does it better with generating explosive plays.

 

[Duff Man]

Anyone who thinks we should go to the air raid should read that second link.

On the more general themes in Darth's post, part of efficiency and running a lot of plays is that RUNNING THE BALL (actual running plays, not changing the definition of running the ball) is a vital part of the offense.

 

[Darth Snow]

Anyone who thinks we should go to the air raid should read that second link.

On the more general themes in Darth's post, part of efficiency and running a lot of plays is that RUNNING THE BALL (actual running plays, not changing the definition of running the ball) is a vital part of the offense.

Not sure that's 100 percent true. But i think there are very few offenses that can do short yardage passing plays with enough efficiency to supplant running the ball. Even Leach has more or less admitted this

 

[Buffnik]

Not sure that's 100 percent true. But i think there are very few offenses that can do short yardage passing plays with enough efficiency to supplant running the ball. Even Leach has more or less admitted this

I think you can be in that 60-65% pass range as long as it's a very efficient passing offense. It's those offenses that get over 70% that become unable to handle the short field in red zone situations and those late game situations when you need to ice the game by running clock. They fail there and that puts a significant cap on their ceiling.

 

[Burrito]

Good thread, nerds.

 

[J.R. Ewing]

Based solely on 2017 play, S&P+ currently has CU at 53rd in the nation which feels about right after our lackluster OOC play and our ass-kicking by Washington.

Here's how the Pac 12 lines up.

1 - Washington - 4th
2 - Wash St - 8th
3 -Oregon - 20th
4 - USC - 28th
5 - Utah - 29th
6 - Stanford - 31st
7 - Arizona - 52nd
8 - CU - 53rd
9 - UCLA - 64th
10 - Cal - 83rd
11 - Arizona St - 84th
12 - Oregon St - 117th

It's early, so the numbers don't always make a ton of sense.

 

[Darth Snow]

More advanced stats. Similar to S&P, Bill Connelly's rankings have us at #50.

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-colorado-advanced-statistical-profile

Still expected to win 7 games.

Probability of finishing 6-6 or better: 83.7%

In what is becoming typical, despite their struggles, the offense is decent at being efficient (last year's offense was ridiculously efficient, especially early). #36. However, we suck at being explosive, #107 in the country.

Defense is top 25 at preventing explosive plays, despite UW's incredible (absolutely incredible) long TD catch and Gaskins' long run. Also top 25 in the red zone. Middling at efficiency. So another bend and don't break D. Doing their job.

We have been a little unlucky with turnovers, but not enough to change any outcomes.

Lindsay is good. Creating a lot of yards every time he touches the ball even though his YPC is much less than Montez's.

And, this is what I think all of you bitching about Lindgren need to figure out: we are #120 in the nation in sack rate on passing downs. When teams know we have to pass, they get to our quarterback 16% of the time. We don't have the ability to stop the pass rush. That's why all you see are slants, screens, and checkdowns on passing plays. Or sacks. When Lindgren can't scheme a pass blocking advantage due to the situation, Montez goes down. Really limits explosive plays.

Strength of the defense looks like the DBs with a top 10 havoc rate. (Basically, Havoc = doing something good that affects the play).

Biggest surprise or change year over year is on Special Teams.
CU is #1 in kickoff coverage (cause we've given up like one actual return), and average (46 or so) in punt returns and coverage. Field goals are good too.

Basically, this team needs its offensive line to figure its **** out and it can still make some noise.

 

[Darth Snow]

More of a look at Montez. Lots of room for improvement, but despite being even in TDs and INTs, he is doing ok. Lots of this has to do with his level of competition.
http://www.espn.com/college-footbal...assing/sort/collegeQuarterbackRating/count/41
Here's a look using ESPNs magic QBR. Some interesting company.

RK	PLAYER	TEAM	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	YDS/A	LONG	TD	INT	SACK	RAT
41	Jalen Hurts, QB	ALA	45	70	64.3	550	7.9	78	4	0	3	149.1
42	Andrew Ford, QB	UMASS	101	157	64.3	1333	8.5	60	7	1	27	149.1
43	Sam Darnold, QB	USC	98	146	67.1	1225	8.4	56	9	7	7	148.4
44	Jarrett Stidham, QB	AUB	72	102	70.6	846	8.3	58	3	2	15	146.0
45	Jesse Ertz, QB	KSU	36	65	55.4	587	9.0	70	4	2	4	145.4
46	Riley Ferguson, QB	MEM	55	99	55.6	783	7.9	55	8	2	3	144.6
47	Clayton Thorson, QB	NW	62	97	63.9	842	8.7	58	4	3	7	144.3
48	Kurt Benkert, QB	UVA	115	174	66.1	1249	7.2	73	10	1	6	144.2
49	Steven Montez, QB	COLO	90	128	70.3	1029	8.0	44	6	6	12	143.9
50	Zach Smith, QB	BAY	46	86	53.5	742	8.6	79	7	4	7	143.5

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Denver_sc]

More advanced stats. Similar to S&P, Bill Connelly's rankings have us at #50.

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-colorado-advanced-statistical-profile

Still expected to win 7 games.


In what is becoming typical, despite their struggles, the offense is decent at being efficient (last year's offense was ridiculously efficient, especially early). #36. However, we suck at being explosive, #107 in the country.

Defense is top 25 at preventing explosive plays, despite UW's incredible (absolutely incredible) long TD catch and Gaskins' long run. Also top 25 in the red zone. Middling at efficiency. So another bend and don't break D. Doing their job.

We have been a little unlucky with turnovers, but not enough to change any outcomes.

Lindsay is good. Creating a lot of yards every time he touches the ball even though his YPC is much less than Montez's.

And, this is what I think all of you bitching about Lindgren need to figure out: we are #120 in the nation in sack rate on passing downs. When teams know we have to pass, they get to our quarterback 16% of the time. We don't have the ability to stop the pass rush. That's why all you see are slants, screens, and checkdowns on passing plays. Or sacks. When Lindgren can't scheme a pass blocking advantage due to the situation, Montez goes down. Really limits explosive plays.

Strength of the defense looks like the DBs with a top 10 havoc rate. (Basically, Havoc = doing something good that affects the play).

Biggest surprise or change year over year is on Special Teams.
CU is #1 in kickoff coverage (cause we've given up like one actual return), and average (46 or so) in punt returns and coverage. Field goals are good too.

Basically, this team needs its offensive line to figure its **** out and it can still make some noise.

Good summary. However, I know the OLine has its flaws, especially in pass protection, but to my inexpert eyes it appears that Montez does them no favors in terms of figuring out where the pressure is coming from and moving his body to create a pocket.

 

[Darth Snow]

Good summary. However, I know the OLine has its flaws, especially in pass protection, but to my inexpert eyes it appears that Montez does them no favors in terms of figuring out where the pressure is coming from and moving his body to create a pocket.

He's gotten a LOT better at it since the first 2 games. But that kind of thing will probably never be his strength.

 

[J.R. Ewing]

Being 99th in big play passing is killing us. If I remember correctly, we were top 10 in that stat at the mid-way of last season.

 

[Darth Snow]

Being 99th in big play passing is killing us. If I remember correctly, we were top 10 in that stat at the mid-way of last season.

got way worse as the OL and team got beat up and we entered the 2d half the season. That CSU game and the Michigan first quarter kept us up for a while though. Haven't broken out at all this year.

 

[Duff Man]

More of a look at Montez. Lots of room for improvement, but despite being even in TDs and INTs, he is doing ok. Lots of this has to do with his level of competition.
http://www.espn.com/college-footbal...assing/sort/collegeQuarterbackRating/count/41
Here's a look using ESPNs magic QBR. Some interesting company.

RK	PLAYER	TEAM	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	YDS/A	LONG	TD	INT	SACK	RAT
41	Jalen Hurts, QB	ALA	45	70	64.3	550	7.9	78	4	0	3	149.1
42	Andrew Ford, QB	UMASS	101	157	64.3	1333	8.5	60	7	1	27	149.1
43	Sam Darnold, QB	USC	98	146	67.1	1225	8.4	56	9	7	7	148.4
44	Jarrett Stidham, QB	AUB	72	102	70.6	846	8.3	58	3	2	15	146.0
45	Jesse Ertz, QB	KSU	36	65	55.4	587	9.0	70	4	2	4	145.4
46	Riley Ferguson, QB	MEM	55	99	55.6	783	7.9	55	8	2	3	144.6
47	Clayton Thorson, QB	NW	62	97	63.9	842	8.7	58	4	3	7	144.3
48	Kurt Benkert, QB	UVA	115	174	66.1	1249	7.2	73	10	1	6	144.2
49	Steven Montez, QB	COLO	90	128	70.3	1029	8.0	44	6	6	12	143.9
50	Zach Smith, QB	BAY	46	86	53.5	742	8.6	79	7	4	7	143.5

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

He's close to the reigning SEC OPOY.

 

[Bufffan68]

Lack of big pass plays is the exact opposite of the hype. This passing game is a hot mess.

 

[BuffUp]

6 TD 6 int = yikes

 

[J.R. Ewing]

6 TD 6 int = yikes

Not all those picks are his fault. I think the 12 sacks given up against 1 good team and 3 dog**** teams might be the worse stat.

 

[Medford M.]

Darth, Lindgren has been garbage since birth. He needs to go.

 

[Duff Man]

Not all those picks are his fault. I think the 12 sacks given up against 1 good team and 3 dog**** teams might be the worse stat.

CSU is not dog ****, but point taken.

 

[J.R. Ewing]

CSU is not dog ****, but point taken.

Their offense is quite capable. Their defense is very average G5 this year.

 

[Darth Snow]

Darth, Lindgren has been garbage since birth. He needs to go.

Medford with the personal hot take!

 

[Buffnik]

More of a look at Montez. Lots of room for improvement, but despite being even in TDs and INTs, he is doing ok. Lots of this has to do with his level of competition.
http://www.espn.com/college-footbal...assing/sort/collegeQuarterbackRating/count/41
Here's a look using ESPNs magic QBR. Some interesting company.

RK	PLAYER	TEAM	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	YDS/A	LONG	TD	INT	SACK	RAT
41	Jalen Hurts, QB	ALA	45	70	64.3	550	7.9	78	4	0	3	149.1
42	Andrew Ford, QB	UMASS	101	157	64.3	1333	8.5	60	7	1	27	149.1
43	Sam Darnold, QB	USC	98	146	67.1	1225	8.4	56	9	7	7	148.4
44	Jarrett Stidham, QB	AUB	72	102	70.6	846	8.3	58	3	2	15	146.0
45	Jesse Ertz, QB	KSU	36	65	55.4	587	9.0	70	4	2	4	145.4
46	Riley Ferguson, QB	MEM	55	99	55.6	783	7.9	55	8	2	3	144.6
47	Clayton Thorson, QB	NW	62	97	63.9	842	8.7	58	4	3	7	144.3
48	Kurt Benkert, QB	UVA	115	174	66.1	1249	7.2	73	10	1	6	144.2
49	Steven Montez, QB	COLO	90	128	70.3	1029	8.0	44	6	6	12	143.9
50	Zach Smith, QB	BAY	46	86	53.5	742	8.6	79	7	4	7	143.5

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Without knowing what "luck" the other QBs have had, got to say that Montez's numbers are really hurt by the INTs he is credited with that are 100% on Ross and Lindsay.

 

[J.R. Ewing]

After 5 games, the Buffs sit at 61st. Two spots below UCLA, one spot above Texas.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/10/1/16392556/ncaa-football-rankings-2017-130-teams

 

[Darth Snow]

After 5 games, the Buffs sit at 51st. Two spots below UCLA, one spot above Texas.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/10/1/16392556/ncaa-football-rankings-2017-130-teams

FIFY. feels about right. When your OL is this bad, nothing is going to be easy.

61st w/o pre-season expectations. UGH.

 

[J.R. Ewing]

Current Pac 12 Rankings:
Washington - 6
Oregon - 14
Wash St - 16
Utah - 23
Stanford - 24
USC - 26
Arizona - 49
UCLA - 59
Colorado - 61
Cal - 95
ASU - 96
Oregon St - 121

Half the Pac is pretty good. The other half is playing like trash.

 

[BuffUp]

Look at where troy is ranked, and you seen what they just did. So there is hope

 

[Darth Snow]

Look at where troy is ranked, and you seen what they just did. So there is hope

huh? Despite being racked by injuries, they were a play away from beating a top 20 team on the road on a short week?

 

[onealcd]

Current Pac 12 Rankings:
Washington - 6
Oregon - 14
Wash St - 16
Utah - 23
Stanford - 24
USC - 26
Arizona - 49
UCLA - 59
Colorado - 61
Cal - 95
ASU - 96
Oregon St - 121

Half the Pac is pretty good. The other half is playing like trash.

Sort of seems like 3/4 of the conference is playing alright but the dropoff on that bottom quarter is pretty bad. Cal looks like they are definitely improving though.

 

[Denver_sc]

Current Pac 12 Rankings:
Washington - 6
Oregon - 14
Wash St - 16
Utah - 23
Stanford - 24
USC - 26
Arizona - 49
UCLA - 59
Colorado - 61
Cal - 95
ASU - 96
Oregon St - 121

Half the Pac is pretty good. The other half is playing like trash.

Fortunately, we catch all three teams that are below us on the schedule. Win those three and it's a bowl game; anything else is gravy.

 

[onealcd]

ASU seems to be playing a lot better than the beginning of the season.