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2018 Season Prediction Thread
- Thread starter Jaximus
- Start date
Bliff Cranch
Well-Known Member
Here’s a rational path to 8 regular season wins:
- Must win all home and neutral site games, with the exception of Utah. CSU, UNH, WSU, ASU, and OSU are all very winnable. Utah is a tough position matchup for the Buffs this year. Their strength is their front seven and with the Buff OL in the kind of flux it’s in, it’s just a tough matchup. Regardless, if they can take care of other home business, including UCLA, they get to six.
- To get the other two wins, they have to win two of three amongst the Nubs, Cal, and Arizona. All on the road but each is winnable.
CSU W 44-3
Nebraska W 38-24
NH W 56-3
UCLA W 41-24
ASU W 56-10
USC L 27-31
Washington L 27-24
Oregon State W 45-14
Arizona L 38-34
WSU W 45-31
Utah L 31-24
Cal W 31-17
Nebraska W 38-24
NH W 56-3
UCLA W 41-24
ASU W 56-10
USC L 27-31
Washington L 27-24
Oregon State W 45-14
Arizona L 38-34
WSU W 45-31
Utah L 31-24
Cal W 31-17
7-5 regular season; not picking the bowl result yet.
6-6
8-4 with some special moments, this team is more locked in
All the credit being given to Nebraska, ASU, and UCLA is amazing. I think that all 3 of those programs may not even make a bowl game, as they have a lot of mismatch between roster, coaches, system, etc. Herm Edwards has never ever been a good coach at any level.
All the credit being given to Nebraska, ASU, and UCLA is amazing. I think that all 3 of those programs may not even make a bowl game, as they have a lot of mismatch between roster, coaches, system, etc. Herm Edwards has never ever been a good coach at any level.
95 BUFF
Member
CSU 90% chance of win: After last night worst team on schedule
At Nebraska 40%: on the road with iffy OL will be tough
New Hampshire 90%: They are better than CSU. Expect unsatisfying win. Big win would speak to strong leadership.
UCLA 60%: UCLA might be the players biggest rival. Always a close game with Bruins.
Arizona St 75%: ASU is a mess. Would be disappointed if this isn’t a Buffs rout.
At USC 35%: Not sold on Helton. Young QB will expose coaching issues Darnold covered up. Closer than you think.
At Washington 20%: Talent and superior coaching. Only no hoper on schedule.
Oregon St 80%: Should be a big blow out
At Arizona 40%: Tate is a talent but at this point in season he will be softened up or dinged. UA D is better though
Washington St 75%: Serious regression to the mean for WSU. I expect them to fall off sharply.
Utah 50%: Still have Moss nightmares from November. Home game makes this a toss up.
At Cal 50%: CU better but Senior day road game is tough. Will be out of South race but in Bowl. Could see let down.
Those percentages translate to 7.05 wins.
Realistic lowest point would be 5-7. 5 wins: CSU UNH ASU OSU WSU
Realistic highest point would be 10-2. 2 losses: USC and Washington
5 games that will decide season: At Nebraska, Vs UCLA, At Arizona, vs Utah At Cal. I think Morretti and Sherman will have taken over on the OL for Kaiser and Tonz and not be playing like Freshmen because both are really good. The rest of this team is pretty solid and if the OL is worked out they finish very strong. I predict they lose to Nebraska and Arizona but beat UCLA early and Utah and Cal late. They hit bowl season on a roll and win to finish 9-4.
At Nebraska 40%: on the road with iffy OL will be tough
New Hampshire 90%: They are better than CSU. Expect unsatisfying win. Big win would speak to strong leadership.
UCLA 60%: UCLA might be the players biggest rival. Always a close game with Bruins.
Arizona St 75%: ASU is a mess. Would be disappointed if this isn’t a Buffs rout.
At USC 35%: Not sold on Helton. Young QB will expose coaching issues Darnold covered up. Closer than you think.
At Washington 20%: Talent and superior coaching. Only no hoper on schedule.
Oregon St 80%: Should be a big blow out
At Arizona 40%: Tate is a talent but at this point in season he will be softened up or dinged. UA D is better though
Washington St 75%: Serious regression to the mean for WSU. I expect them to fall off sharply.
Utah 50%: Still have Moss nightmares from November. Home game makes this a toss up.
At Cal 50%: CU better but Senior day road game is tough. Will be out of South race but in Bowl. Could see let down.
Those percentages translate to 7.05 wins.
Realistic lowest point would be 5-7. 5 wins: CSU UNH ASU OSU WSU
Realistic highest point would be 10-2. 2 losses: USC and Washington
5 games that will decide season: At Nebraska, Vs UCLA, At Arizona, vs Utah At Cal. I think Morretti and Sherman will have taken over on the OL for Kaiser and Tonz and not be playing like Freshmen because both are really good. The rest of this team is pretty solid and if the OL is worked out they finish very strong. I predict they lose to Nebraska and Arizona but beat UCLA early and Utah and Cal late. They hit bowl season on a roll and win to finish 9-4.
We are going to beat USC this year. You heard it here first.
I predicted 8 in this. I think I'm at 8.5 now in terms of expectations. Winning at Nebraska was a big hurdle with it being a game I'd seen as a 50/50 going into the season. I saw CSU as like an 80/20, so that doesn't move the needle much but it does move it some now that it's in the books.
The next 2 games (UCLA and ASU) were games I had at about 60/40. We win both of these and I'll definitely be at 9.
The next 2 games (UCLA and ASU) were games I had at about 60/40. We win both of these and I'll definitely be at 9.
****you right back, asshole!
Things that have improved my outlook for the season:
- Style points and ease with which we dismantled CSU
- Nice road win, with grit against Nebraska (saw it as 50/50 as well)
- Solid victory v. NH (if that would have been more like Northern Colorado, I would have been worried)
- UCLA looking horrible, USC not looking totally dominant, AZ schools looking totally vulnerable
- Our Linebackers
MDBuff83
Well-Known Member
I have a hard time calling the UNH win "solid"....it was mediocre at best, and statistically a lesser performance than UNC last year.
A win is a win, but man, the lack of effort in the second half left a lot to desire. Not to mention, if for some reason #12 gets hurt this year, we are royally ****ed!!
A win is a win, but man, the lack of effort in the second half left a lot to desire. Not to mention, if for some reason #12 gets hurt this year, we are royally ****ed!!
The UNC game last year was 28-14 at half and very few, if any backups played. This was 35-0 after the first play from scrimmage in the 3rd quarter. It was a dominating performance and CU would have won 70-0 had the starters played as much as they did against UNC.
Edit - Well, dammit - what TShek said....
Original Post:
Last year against UNC, they scored coming out of the half to make it 28-21. We gave away a fumble on the next possession. That game was dangerously close to being a dogfight.
UNH was never in doubt, even if our 1H offensive performance was uneven and frustrating.
I was at the UNC game and forgot about the start to the 2nd half. It was a very nervous and "WTF" game until the 4th quarter.
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
I wasn't looking for "solid" or "perfect" Saturday. One, these are 18-22 year old kids. They're not going to be a sky-high for some cupcake from the east coast as they were for Colorado State or Nebraska (if they didn't get it in the days leading up to the game-they get it now. It was a blast seeing the kids run onto the Memorial Stadium turf after the last play). I didn't want to be so flat we had to play starters into the fourth quarter like we did against UNC, and I didn't want to see any critical injuries. Wasn't the cleanest game, and the 2nd half was very hard to watch........but it was fine. Onto FUCLA!
Kinda making my point. Everyone on the team, and all students in the first two rows played, and we still won by 31...all while “looking like ****.” A) when was the last time a Buffs team could do that? 2) I really don’t have anything else.
UNH was set up to be a total letdown week.
Had just played 2 rivalry games, with the game at Nebraska a very emotional road trip. There were a lot of players banged up. We were playing a good FCS team that is used to winning. Coaches were focused on developing some aspects of our schemes, so the game plan was a lot of tinkering to get some things like the run game going instead of a "light up the scoreboard" type plan. It was hot on the field and basically unpleasant.
Our team took care of business with all of that. That is what good teams do. There is absolutely nothing to be upset about with that performance outside of some new anxiety about our backup QB situations (the capability of Noyer and the fact that our coaches won't let them run more of the offense -- which pisses me off because doing what's best for your team trumps the "sportsmanship" of not running the score up a bit).
Had just played 2 rivalry games, with the game at Nebraska a very emotional road trip. There were a lot of players banged up. We were playing a good FCS team that is used to winning. Coaches were focused on developing some aspects of our schemes, so the game plan was a lot of tinkering to get some things like the run game going instead of a "light up the scoreboard" type plan. It was hot on the field and basically unpleasant.
Our team took care of business with all of that. That is what good teams do. There is absolutely nothing to be upset about with that performance outside of some new anxiety about our backup QB situations (the capability of Noyer and the fact that our coaches won't let them run more of the offense -- which pisses me off because doing what's best for your team trumps the "sportsmanship" of not running the score up a bit).
BerkeleyBuff
Well-Known Member
Ya I’m not sure how anyone could be too disappointed by Saturday. Let’s all just take a trip down memory lane to our OOC games last year. Ah, there it is - I feel better.
Or any OOC from 2006-2015
Buffskier
Club Member
Oh. Well then. Edit: I second that!
HawaiiBUFF
Well-Known Member
I really think we can attain 11-1 if everything goes our way. I had us starting 5-0 (2-0), then really kept coming back to 9-3. But after seeing the first three weeks, I feel a lot more confident.
CSU W
@Nebraska W
UNH W
UCLA W - Complete dumpster fire right now. I still feel that Chip was a great hire, but going to take time to fix UCLA.
ASU W - Not as bad as anyone thought they'd be. They were exposed at SDSU. If this was at ASU I'd feel less confident. I think its close, but we win.
@USC W - We seem to play them close as of late. Should've beat them in 2016 on the road. 50/50 for me right now, but feel like we sneak one out.
@Washington L - Washington has too much fire power. I think they are able to run all over us.
OREGON STATE W - New coach, looks improved but not there yet.
@UA W - Tate not doing what Tate did in 2017. I think that this one might be a high scoring game, with us having too much fire power.
WAZZU W - Leach is doing a great job at WAZZU, but I think this is our year.
UTAH W - Always a close game. I'd feel less confident in Salt Lake, but I think we come away with a gritty win.
@CAL W - I think CAL is going to be very good soon, but I think we play another gritty game and end our season on a high note.
I update my 9-3 prediction to 11-1. I am drinking all the Koolade.
CSU W
@Nebraska W
UNH W
UCLA W - Complete dumpster fire right now. I still feel that Chip was a great hire, but going to take time to fix UCLA.
ASU W - Not as bad as anyone thought they'd be. They were exposed at SDSU. If this was at ASU I'd feel less confident. I think its close, but we win.
@USC W - We seem to play them close as of late. Should've beat them in 2016 on the road. 50/50 for me right now, but feel like we sneak one out.
@Washington L - Washington has too much fire power. I think they are able to run all over us.
OREGON STATE W - New coach, looks improved but not there yet.
@UA W - Tate not doing what Tate did in 2017. I think that this one might be a high scoring game, with us having too much fire power.
WAZZU W - Leach is doing a great job at WAZZU, but I think this is our year.
UTAH W - Always a close game. I'd feel less confident in Salt Lake, but I think we come away with a gritty win.
@CAL W - I think CAL is going to be very good soon, but I think we play another gritty game and end our season on a high note.
I update my 9-3 prediction to 11-1. I am drinking all the Koolade.
BerkeleyBuff
Well-Known Member
Spiked with tequila.
DenverBuff
Douchebag
Anything less than 8 wins would be a huge disappointment given we’re sitting at 3 - 0 and pac 12 is weak, and pac 12 South is even weaker, and we don’t play 2 of the top 3 teams, and we get 5 home games vs 4 away. In fact, 5 - 4 in the conference (8 wins) almost seems like it would be a disappointment. Can’t we expect to win at home and grab one on the road?