2019 NFL Draft Thread

[onealcd]

As a passer he was terrible, as predicted. He made a handful of elite down field throws, but that kind of thing was never in question. The problem is that he’s never been a >60% passer and I just don’t think he can truly be successful in the NFL if he can’t have even slightly below average accuracy.

He won’t flame out like Paxton Lynch or anything, but he’ll be lucky to make it to a Blake Bortles level, IMO.

Yeah I don’t really agree with that. He played about the same or better than everyone other than Baker mayfield which is to be expected. Like I said he has some learning to do but people saying he sucks after one season are kidding themselves.

Now I do feel bad for darnold because he had Dennison as his OC right? That downright sucks lol

 

[dyemeduke]

Lock = This year's Josh Allen (and not in a good way) in a QB class that's the absolute definition of mediocrity. Does anyone truly believe Haskins is franchise type QB? And I'll go ahead and put the over/under on Murray switching to baseball at 2.5 years. Dude is 5-8 170, no matter what OU S&C says.

I absolutely think Haskins could be a franchise QB. Only real question marks are how accurate he truly is (system at OSU or can he make tight reads and be accurate) and his lack of starts. He can make a lot of throws, has a strong arm, seems like a good leader, is mobile enough, and doesn't seem to have a lot of off field issues. No, he may not be on the level of Tua and Lawrence, but Haskins definitely can be a franchise. I've been on the Haskins train for a bit. If Haskins is at 10 somehow, I hope that Broncos take him. Only thing I don't want is to trade up to 5 to snag Haskins.

 

[onealcd]

Does drew lewis’ dad still work for the Queefs? That would be tough to cheer for.

 

[manhattanbuff]

What? Those are season long stats. I'm well aware of what Allen did in college, I was comparing his first season in the NFL with other guys in their first taste of the NFL. Those guys that you apparently didn't read too closely were: John Elway, Steve Young, Troy Aikman, and Jared Goff.

So here are the other guys from last years class ******SEASON LONG STATS*********

Josh Rosen:

3-10 55.2% 5.8 YPA 11 TD 14 INT 138 rushing yards 0 TDs

Sam Darnold:

4-9 57.7% 6.9 YPA 17 TD 15 INT 138 rushing 1 TD

Josh Allen:

5-6 52.8% 6.5 YPA 10 TD 12 INT 631 rushing 8 TDs

Lamar Jackson:

6-1 58.2% 7.1 YPA 6 TDs 3 INT 695 rushing 5 TDs

The completion % is obviously worse than the other guys, but other than that, he doesn't look like he's all that much worse than those other guys, hence my extremely controversial earlier statement that he wasn't a complete dumpster fire. I'd venture a guess that 5 years from now, 1 of these guys will be really good, one a borderline starter, one holding up posterboards on the sideline, and one out of the NFL. I'd throw my money in on Darnold being the good one, but I don't honestly know.

Circling back to the topic of this thread, I don't like guys that have accuracy issues as their red flag like Drew Lock or Josh Allen. Guys don't suddenly learn to accurately throw the football, just like some pitchers never learn how to throw strikes.

Sorry. I don’t consider win/loss record when evaluating QB ability. I thought you were listing passing stats for individual games.

Football is a team sport. Complementary play and surrounding talent have a huge impact on record. The other QBs showed upside and success at the college level that Allen never did. Given their limited surrounding rosters and mostly horrible ownership situations (Lamar having the best organization and surrounding talent), I think the other players struggled as rookies as you’d expect. That’s why I accounted for Allen’s regression against better competition when he became a professional.

This is also another argument against him. Allen is starting at a lower baseline than his fellow rookies. He will have to do more than simply rely on his very strong arm and current agility to become a competent professional. Finally, strangely, you make another very compelling argument against Allen. He’s never been an accurate passer. He hasn’t shown the capacity to improve in this area either.

 

[MtnBuff]

Sorry. I don’t consider win/loss record when evaluating QB ability. I thought you were listing passing stats for individual games.

Football is a team sport. Complementary play and surrounding talent have a huge impact on record. The other QBs showed upside and success at the college level that Allen never did. Given their limited surrounding rosters and mostly horrible ownership situations (Lamar having the best organization and surrounding talent), I think the other players struggled as rookies as you’d expect. That’s why I accounted for Allen’s regression against better competition when he became a professional.

This is also another argument against him. Allen is starting at a lower baseline than his fellow rookies. He will have to do more than simply rely on his very strong arm and current agility to become a competent professional. Finally, strangely, you make another very compelling argument against Allen. He’s never been an accurate passer. He hasn’t shown the capacity to improve in this area either.

Other QBs have had statistically bad seasons in their first year or more as pros but those QBs had been statistically stronger and shown the needed skills at the college level. Allen not only had bad statistics as a pro, he also never stood out statistically in college despite weak competition. He never showed solid accuracy in the short to medium game.

He can't "do it again" if he hasn't done it before.

I'd love to see Allen make it, he seems like a good guy and a hard worker. He is a good story.

Problem is who can be pointed out as having the weaknesses that Allen had in college and as a rookie who overcame it and eventually became accurate and a guy who could excel at the mental aspects of the position?

 

[White_Rabbit]

rofl

 

[Gary Indiana]

I’m not sure how someone watches the tape on Josh Allen from this season and determines he’ll be a successful NFL QB.

And saying that he only sucks as bad as Rosen and Darnold isn’t really much of a defense.

 

[Denver_sc]

What? Those are season long stats. I'm well aware of what Allen did in college, I was comparing his first season in the NFL with other guys in their first taste of the NFL. Those guys that you apparently didn't read too closely were: John Elway, Steve Young, Troy Aikman, and Jared Goff.

YOU
HAVE
TO
ADJUST
FOR
ERA

 

[hefdub]

As a Buffalo Bills fan, I want Josh Allen to be a great QB. I don't know if he will and there are reasons to believe that he won't.

But he's a hell of an athlete and leader. I think that was the biggest takeaway, was his athleticism. That team played really hard for him and rallied around him. He's white Cam Newton. He played all season with one of the worst offensive lines and WR/TE units in the league.

He'll never be a 65-70 percent passer. But if all goes well I think you could see him have a Cam Newton-like effect.

 

[DrunkRalphie]

You'll never be successful in the NFL with an inaccurate QB.

 

[tante]

As a Buffalo Bills fan, I want Josh Allen to be a great QB. I don't know if he will and there are reasons to believe that he won't.

But he's a hell of an athlete and leader. I think that was the biggest takeaway, was his athleticism. That team played really hard for him and rallied around him. He's white Cam Newton. He played all season with one of the worst offensive lines and WR/TE units in the league.

He'll never be a 65-70 percent passer. But if all goes well I think you could see him have a Cam Newton-like effect.

Do you think Newton was sucessful because of his passing? He had some completion percentages over 70 percent.

 

[White_Rabbit]

I’m not sure how someone watches the tape on Josh Allen from this season and determines he’ll be a successful NFL QB.

And saying that he only sucks as bad as Rosen and Darnold isn’t really much of a defense.

I never said he was definitely going to be successful. I said he wasn't a complete dumpster fire. Tante then chimed in with he had a low completion % and more INT than TDs, I cited several people who also had those issues and ended up just fine. My entire point was I don't like Allen's prospect type and therefore don't like Drew Lock. I really don't understand where you guys are getting this idea that I think Allen is good or will definitely be a good NFL QB.

My secondary point is guys often struggle in their first go in the NFL. Darnold, Rosen, and Allen all sucked this year, but I wouldn't give up on them yet. I'd argue it's more alarming Rosen and Darnold struggled so much given they weren't the massive projects Allen is.

YOU
HAVE
TO
ADJUST
FOR
ERA

Alex Smith's first three years:
2-5 50.9% 1 TD 11 INT 5.3 Y/A
7-9 58.1% 16 TD 16 INT 6.5 Y/A
2-5 48.7% 2 TD 4 INT 4.7 Y/A

now that's dumpster fire level

Matt Stafford
2-8 53.3% 13 TD 20 INT 6.0 Y/A

Andrew Luck
11-5 54.1% 23 TD 18 INT 7.0 Y/A

Eli Manning
1-6 48.2% 6 TD 9 INT 5.3 Y/A

Peyton Manning
3-13 56.7% 26 TD 28 INT 5.2 Y/A

 

[Denver_sc]

I never said he was definitely going to be successful. I said he wasn't a complete dumpster fire. Tante then chimed in with he had a low completion % and more INT than TDs, I cited several people who also had those issues and ended up just fine. My entire point was I don't like Allen's prospect type and therefore don't like Drew Lock. I really don't understand where you guys are getting this idea that I think Allen is good or will definitely be a good NFL QB.

My secondary point is guys often struggle in their first go in the NFL. Darnold, Rosen, and Allen all sucked this year, but I wouldn't give up on them yet. I'd argue it's more alarming Rosen and Darnold struggled so much given they weren't the massive projects Allen is.



Alex Smith's first three years:
2-5 50.9% 1 TD 11 INT 5.3 Y/A
7-9 58.1% 16 TD 16 INT 6.5 Y/A
2-5 48.7% 2 TD 4 INT 4.7 Y/A

now that's dumpster fire level

Matt Stafford
2-8 53.3% 13 TD 20 INT 6.0 Y/A

Andrew Luck
11-5 54.1% 23 TD 18 INT 7.0 Y/A

Eli Manning
1-6 48.2% 6 TD 9 INT 5.3 Y/A

Peyton Manning
3-13 56.7% 26 TD 28 INT 5.2 Y/A

Ok, but look at rankings among qualified starters for Allen:

Allen:
Comp: 33rd out of 33, TD %: 31st out of 33, TDs: 32nd, INT %: 32nd out of 33 (second highest, for clarity), INT: 9th most, Y/A: 32nd out of 33

None of those guys ranked as low vs. league average in every single category. The only one that you've mentioned that's comparable is Rosen.

And the other thing that's unsaid about all of those guys you've mentioned: every single one was a VERY high draft pick drafted with the team's own pick. Allen's the only one that went to a team with a winning record in the year prior.

It's possible that Allen will develop into a very good player. But historical data shows that typically a QB's completion percentage in college is their absolute ceiling in the NFL, and Allen's completion percentage as a starter in Wyoming of 56.2% would have only put him at 31st out of 33 qualified starters last year.

 

[Medford M.]

Allen will never be a good NFL QB, and I'm already on record stating that Lock and Haskins won't be either.

 

[somebody]

Rosen should get some kind of pass for being on the Cardinals, e.g. their OL was rated last by PFF:
The Cardinals’ offensive line was in shambles when fully healthy, so it didn’t help that only rookie center Mason Cole was able to stay healthy for more than 600 snaps this season. 11 different offensive linemen played at least 100 snaps for the Cardinals this season, and not a single one played well. Quarterback Josh Rosen didn’t have a chance.

 

[hefdub]

Do you think Newton was sucessful because of his passing? He had some completion percentages over 70 percent.

Cam Newton has a career 59% completion percentage. His MVP season he completed right at that number.

I want to believe that Josh Allen will be a good NFL quarterback. Let's see him play a couple of full seasons with an offensive line and playmakers that aren't among the worst in the league. Then let's decide. I do know that he is every bit the athlete Cam Newton is.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Cam Newton is vastly overrated as a passer, and generally as a QB in the NFL. He had the one MVP season, which was pretty pedestrian from a passing standpoint, but outside of that he's been very average and hasn't won a much of anything. If everything falls into place, Allen might be able to come close to him.

 

[higgyhoops12]

Cam Newton is vastly overrated as a passer, and generally as a QB in the NFL. He had the one MVP season, which was pretty pedestrian from a passing standpoint, but outside of that he's been very average and hasn't won a much of anything. If everything falls into place, Allen might be able to come close to him.

But you continue to stress the importance of drafting a "franchise" QB with a top 5 pick. Do you consider Cam a franchise guy?

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

But you continue to stress the importance of drafting a "franchise" QB with a top 5 pick. Do you consider Cam a franchise guy?

I consider him a franchise guy in a similar way I consider Stafford and Andy Dalton franchise guys. Good enough to put up some numbers from time to time, maybe get you to the playoffs every so often, but not good enough for a franchise to have sustained success. Not a great position to be in with a QB like that, tbh. You can't really get rid of him, but they're going to demand $25-$30m/year.

 

[higgyhoops12]

I consider him a franchise guy in a similar fashion I consider Stafford and Andy Dalton franchise guys. Good enough to put up some numbers from time to time, maybe get you to the playoffs every so often, but not good enough for a franchise to have sustained success. Not a great position to be in with a QB like that, tbh. You can't really get rid of him, but they're going to demand $25-$30m/year.

So the question goes would you rather have Cam or Von?

It seems to me there's becoming a pretty deep middle tier QB's (Newton, Eli, Flacco, Carr, Dalton, Stafford, Tannehill, Winston, Mariota, etc.) that won't win you games on their own but are serviceable. Maybe owners will realize they aren't worth the $25-$30 million annually and the prices will drop. In hindsight I'm extremely happy we didn't win the Cousins sweepstakes.

 

[hefdub]

I consider him a franchise guy in a similar way I consider Stafford and Andy Dalton franchise guys. Good enough to put up some numbers from time to time, maybe get you to the playoffs every so often, but not good enough for a franchise to have sustained success. Not a great position to be in with a QB like that, tbh. You can't really get rid of him, but they're going to demand $25-$30m/year.

Cam Newton is a franchise guy. He has an MVP (other QB's in the last 20 years to have an MVP include Brady, Manning, Rodgers and Ryan). He threw for 35 TDs that year and ran for another 10. He led his team to the Super Bowl and also had 12-4, 15-1 and 11-5 seasons. He's an upper echelon QB. To put him in the same sentence as Stafford or Dalton is absurd.

 

[White_Rabbit]

Cam Newton is vastly overrated as a passer, and generally as a QB in the NFL. He had the one MVP season, which was pretty pedestrian from a passing standpoint, but outside of that he's been very average and hasn't won a much of anything. If everything falls into place, Allen might be able to come close to him.

I think that's what Bills fans have to hope for. Allen can somehow get into the upper 50s % wise, continue being a running threat to the tune of 600 yards a year. Gotta hope they can tweak his mechanics and footwork and get him some actual playmakers and an OL. For as great as the Bills apparently are, they have the skeleton of LeSean McCoy, Zay Jones is their best WR, and their OL blows. Their defense is super legit, though.

They really should've kept Tyrod Taylor around and kept Allen on the bench for a year at least. Rolling with Allen, Derek Anderson apparently still around, and Nathan Peterman was a seriously poor choice.

 

[tante]

Cam Newton has a career 59% completion percentage. His MVP season he completed right at that number.

I want to believe that Josh Allen will be a good NFL quarterback. Let's see him play a couple of full seasons with an offensive line and playmakers that aren't among the worst in the league. Then let's decide. I do know that he is every bit the athlete Cam Newton is.

You are right. I just glanced at his numbers and looked at each week this season, not his season totals. Your comparison might be good.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Cam Newton is a franchise guy. He has an MVP (other QB's in the last 20 years to have an MVP include Brady, Manning, Rodgers and Ryan). He threw for 35 TDs that year and ran for another 10. He led his team to the Super Bowl and also had 12-4, 15-1 and 11-5 seasons. He's an upper echelon QB. To put him in the same sentence as Stafford or Dalton is absurd.

He had a really good year in 2015, I acknowledged that. The other 7 years of his career, he’s been very pedestrian as a passing QB. He’s 3-4 in the playoffs and has only made the playoffs 4 times in 8 seasons. He’s a decent QB but he’s not upper echelon at this point.

 

[hefdub]

He had a really good year in 2015, I acknowledged that. The other 7 years of his career, he’s been very pedestrian as a passing QB. He’s 3-4 in the playoffs and has only made the playoffs 4 times in 8 seasons. He’s a decent QB but he’s not upper echelon at this point.

I assume this will be an agree to disagree situation. Newton is a top 10 QB by all accounts — unless you think there are 10 QBs that are better — and had the Panthers rolling this year until he hurt his shoulder. Outside of the Patriots and Brady, it's tough to make the playoffs year-in and year-out.
Here is the list of teams with the longest current playoff streaks.

• 10 seasons: New England Patriots
• 4 seasons: Kansas City Chiefs
• 2 seasons: Los Angeles Rams, New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles

I guess it comes down to, do you think you can win a Super Bowl with him? I do and think he's about one of 7-8 QBs that you can say that about.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

I assume this will be an agree to disagree situation. Newton is a top 10 QB by all accounts — unless you think there are 10 QBs that are better — and had the Panthers rolling this year until he hurt his shoulder. Outside of the Patriots and Brady, it's tough to make the playoffs year-in and year-out.
Here is the list of teams with the longest current playoff streaks.

• 10 seasons: New England Patriots
• 4 seasons: Kansas City Chiefs
• 2 seasons: Los Angeles Rams, New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles

I guess it comes down to, do you think you can win a Super Bowl with him? I do and think he's about one of 7-8 QBs that you can say that about.

He averages 3,500 yards passing 23 TDs and 13 INTs per year and has only thrown for more than 4k yards once in his career, as a Rookie. Sure, he is among the league leaders in rushing yards and rushing TDs for a QB, but that hasn’t meant much to his team (outside of his MVP season), nor is it his primary role as a QB.

If there was a fantasy draft in the real NFL this offseason that only applied for the 2019 season, do you think Cam would be a top 10 QB pick? I don’t. I think he’d be in the 12-18 range with guys like Watson, Cousins, Stafford, Mayfield, Prescott and Carr, which puts him squarely in the third tier and fairly average for an NFL starter.

He’s a fine player. Good enough for 8-9 wins/year (his actual career average). Is that a franchise QB? Depends on your definition of that term I guess, but I’d absolutely be looking to upgrade if I were the Panthers (just like if I were the Lions and Bengals, among other teams).

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

So the question goes would you rather have Cam or Von?

It seems to me there's becoming a pretty deep middle tier QB's (Newton, Eli, Flacco, Carr, Dalton, Stafford, Tannehill, Winston, Mariota, etc.) that won't win you games on their own but are serviceable. Maybe owners will realize they aren't worth the $25-$30 million annually and the prices will drop. In hindsight I'm extremely happy we didn't win the Cousins sweepstakes.

I’d rather have Von as I look at things right now. I agree, there needs to be something done about the ridiculous QB $$ for guys like Stafford, Carr and Cousins. Three highest paid QBs in the league...

 

[onealcd]

Rosen should get some kind of pass for being on the Cardinals, e.g. their OL was rated last by PFF:
The Cardinals’ offensive line was in shambles when fully healthy, so it didn’t help that only rookie center Mason Cole was able to stay healthy for more than 600 snaps this season. 11 different offensive linemen played at least 100 snaps for the Cardinals this season, and not a single one played well. Quarterback Josh Rosen didn’t have a chance.

I totally agree about giving Rosen a pass because that team was awful but Allen sort of deserves the same because he didn’t have **** in front of him either, and had way worse receivers on his team. I actually think his rushing numbers will shrink (hopefully) over the next couple years because he was sort of running for his life this year.

I just watched some of his games this year and I think they have something they can build on that’s all. I don’t know if he will be great, the odds of any of these guys being great is small but he can definitely improve. Bills fans are hopeful, that’s for sure.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Back to this years draft topics... Risner continues to receive praise from draft guys.

 

[4BienemyTDs]

Quinten Nelson is a pro bowl stud lineman that every guy said should be drafted way up there. The QB bonanza and the fact that he was a guard pushed him to Indy and now the kid could be a 12-15 year HOF guard. Seems like you have to consider guys that epitomize their position like Von or even Chubb that is probably Elways best draft pick. I feel you must go best player if they dominate their position, and I think that is Quinnen Williams from Alabama!!! Put him at DT or DE with Von and Chubb and QB’s are gonna die. Then come back and trade into late first round to get Baker or another top tier CB.