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  • In addition to the game day thread we will also have live chat during the Buffs UCLA game. Consider it the 2020 version of a tailgate. This is normally a club member only feature but will be open to all registered users this weekend.

2020-21 MBB Season

SewallBeach

Not Built Like an Action Figure
Club Member

Thursday's game against Oregon has been moved from 9 p.m. up to 3 p.m. Mountain. The game will still air on FS1 as the first game of network's national triple header and will also broadcast on KOA 850 AM & 94.1 FM.

With the postponement of Saturday's Oregon State game, announced Tuesday, Colorado will now travel to play at Utah on Monday, Jan. 11, on the Pac-12 Network. Tip time has not been determined. The Buffaloes were originally scheduled to play in Salt Lake City on Saturday, Mar. 6, in their lone game during the final week of the regular season. That week will now free up the Buffaloes for any additional rescheduling needs.

Colorado's home game with California has been moved back one day from Wednesday, Jan. 13, to Thursday, Jan. 14 and will be played at 12 p.m. on the Pac-12 Network. The Buffaloes are still scheduled to host Stanford on Saturday, Jan. 16, as scheduled (1 p.m., Pac-12 Network).

Lastly, Colorado's home game with Washington State, postponed from Dec. 5, will be played on Wednesday, Jan. 27, at 7 p.m. on ESPNU.
That was originally the week the Buffaloes were set host only Utah; that game still slated for Saturday, Jan. 30 at the CU Events Center at a time to be determined.

The Utah move is smart.
 

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
Club Member
Junta Member
CU now #11 in Net Ratings.

I don't think we're that good, but it's sure fun to have a reputable source to drive my fantasies.

What really matters is that the NET is really important for Dance bid and seeding. Kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy - if it says we're really good and the committee gives us a 4-seed, we end up as heavy favorites to advance in the tourney.
 

Highlander

There can be only one
Club Member
I don't think we're that good, but it's sure fun to have a reputable source to drive my fantasies.

What really matters is that the NET is really important for Dance bid and seeding. Kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy - if it says we're really good and the committee gives us a 4-seed, we end up as heavy favorites to advance in the tourney.
I whole heartedly endorse this post.
 

SewallBeach

Not Built Like an Action Figure
Club Member

Referencing ‘84 Harvard’s record season team FT % of 82.2%
Based on a linear regression, we can estimate that Colorado’s skill is about 77.7%. At least, that’s what they should be expected to shoot the rest of the season. But they won’t! They won’t shoot exactly that for the rest of the season. For the same reason they’ve far exceeded their skill so far, stuff will happen to cause their FT% to not match their skill the rest of the season. This is why they have a chance at the record. How much of a chance? Well, I ran a Monte Carlo simulation for the rest of the season to figure this out using the following very simple assumptions:

– They will take 18 FTA’s per game
– They will play somewhere between 14 and 18 more games

This assumes they’ll play all of the games left on the schedule and makes allowances for some tournament games.

In 10,000 runs, 21% of simulations produced an FT% that would beat Harvard. The length of the season is a pretty big help to Colorado. If we assume a normal season, they’d play a minimum of 32 games. With a range of 32-36 games played, their chances drop to 9%. So this is the year to do it.

Of course, we don’t know Colorado’s true skill. It could be higher than the estimate of 77.7%. But given that every one of their rotation players is shooting better than their career average, it’s unlikely that it’s too much higher. Assuming the estimate is close, even in a season with limited games and limited free throws, Colorado has a difficult road to knocking Harvard from the record books. That goes a long way to explain why the record has stood for so long. Even the most skilled teams need a healthy dose of luck to challenge the record.
 

Buffsbball

Well-Known Member

Referencing ‘84 Harvard’s record season team FT % of 82.2%
Free throw shooting has been one of the biggest surprises this year for me. I feel like Tad has put an emphasis on shooting the last couple years he hadn't in past teams. I feel like I remember not too long ago when people on this board would B**** about the lack of shooting and free throw misses on the front end of 1-1's and that Tad didn't adjust to that. Well Tad has adjusted and our 3 point percentage and free throws have improved drastically!
 

FM-Buff

Club Member
Club Member
Some numbers:

Buffs are 19 in KenPom. They are 24 in AdjO and 18 in AdjD. They are only 1 of 10 teams in the county that are in the top ten of both.

Buffs are 11 in Net Rankings. 2-3 in Q1 games. 1-0 in Q2. 3-0 in Q3. 3-0 in Q4
I meant to add the info from bracket matrix. It has the Buffs as the last 6 seed. If you aren't familiar with bracket matrix, it's simply an average of all the "bracketologists".
 

hokiehead

Gobbler on the Mountain!
Club Member
Tad has always had the philosophy that free throws are something the guys should develop mostly on their own and they don't need to waste practice time on it. Credit to the guys for stepping it up.
I think this is valid. NCAA rules limit teams to (I think) 20 hours/week of organized practice. Not using that time for repetition drills of skill that can be done outside of team settings makes a ton of sense to me.
 

dwyermj

Club Member
Club Member
I think this is valid. NCAA rules limit teams to (I think) 20 hours/week of organized practice. Not using that time for repetition drills of skill that can be done outside of team settings makes a ton of sense to me.
100% agree. I never thought about how the pandemic not allowing 5 on 5 pickup game would obviously make them practice free throws more but it does make sense. Hopefully the young guys realize how big of a jump it gave them and we keep it going moving forward.
 

hokiehead

Gobbler on the Mountain!
Club Member
lots of talk about the early tip times.

they're great for me, but i have an unusual work schedule that typically ends by 12PM MT.

For those who work normal business hours, are you still able to enjoy these games?

I'm guessing that some have flexibility in their WFH routines such that they can.

For those who can't watch the games during work hours, are you able to avoid spoilers and enjoy the game on DVR (it would seem to follow that if one is busy with work that avoiding spoilers shouldn't be too challenging)? or is that not practical in your life?
 

RiverBuff

Club Member
Club Member
lots of talk about the early tip times.

they're great for me, but i have an unusual work schedule that typically ends by 12PM MT.

For those who work normal business hours, are you still able to enjoy these games?

I'm guessing that some have flexibility in their WFH routines such that they can.

For those who can't watch the games during work hours, are you able to avoid spoilers and enjoy the game on DVR (it would seem to follow that if one is busy with work that avoiding spoilers shouldn't be too challenging)? or is that not practical in your life?
Mainly affects when I start day drinking and how many beers I drink.

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FM-Buff

Club Member
Club Member
Buffs should be a ranked team. After hammering CAL, up to 14th in KenPom and were 9th in NET before the game.
They might drop in NET since CAL is so bad.
 

seattlebuff

Well-Known Member
Is this the most talented, creative team we've had in recent memory top to bottom? It feels like we finally have 5-6 guys now that can actually put it on the floor and create for themselves or others. And multiple legit outside shooters. Remains to be seen what we do vs. a team with 2-3 good big men, but this team could be REALLY good.
 

Robert Sorell

Well-Known Member
Is this the most talented, creative team we've had in recent memory top to bottom? It feels like we finally have 5-6 guys now that can actually put it on the floor and create for themselves or others. And multiple legit outside shooters. Remains to be seen what we do vs. a team with 2-3 good big men, but this team could be REALLY good.
GCU had 2 really good bigs, they gave us trouble in stretches.
 

Zachsquatch

Well-Known Member
GCU had 2 really good bigs, they gave us trouble in stretches.

They did. Hard to think of any other teams on our schedule that will replicate that though.

Speaking of GCU — could be a top 100 win by season end and I feel like that is still seriously underrating them.
 

BuffsNYC

Captain Jazz Ass
Club Member
They did. Hard to think of any other teams on our schedule that will replicate that though.

Speaking of GCU — could be a top 100 win by season end and I feel like that is still seriously underrating them.

USC is playing better than when we played them in LA. They could be trouble in the tournament.
 
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