besides the Lady Gaga concerts, right?
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2020 Rocky Mountain Showdown (CANCELED) at Canvas Stadium
- Thread starter TDforTD
- Start date
Drag 'em Kiszla.
Well sure. But who could have known?
Known about Covid? Or just simply known that there was no way they’d ever be able to recoup that investment? I know you didn’t click the link, but Kizla is talking about how they built the stadium so they could host a CU game that may not even happen now.
Nobody could have predicted Covid, but it wasn’t difficult to predict the difficult economic realities they would be facing.
They also built it in the delusional fantasy of getting an invite to the Big 12. That wasnt ever mentioned by Kizla, and probably for good reason. It makes the decision to build it look all the more idiotic.
SMH, should have used the sarcasm font.
By the way, those projections and feasibility studies on the stadium were trash from the get go. In all my years of banking, having reviewed a fairly large swath of feasibility studies, I can’t recall ever reading one where the author stated that the project wasn’t feasible. They are always feasible. Cant tell you how many times I’ve had conversations like this:
Creebuzz:, “you know, Bob, this project looks pretty aggressive. It doesn’t seem like it’ll work”.
Bob the lender: “well, we have a feasibility study and an appraisal that says it will.”
Cree: “feasibility studies and appraisals are garbage”
Bob: “then why do we order them?”
Cree: “it makes our regulators happy”
Bob: “you think you’re smarter than everyone, don’t you?”
Cree: “I’m smarter than you”
Bob: “you’re an asshole”
Cree: “maybe, but I’m still smarter than you”
CSU has a lot of Bobs in its C-suites.
Creebuzz:, “you know, Bob, this project looks pretty aggressive. It doesn’t seem like it’ll work”.
Bob the lender: “well, we have a feasibility study and an appraisal that says it will.”
Cree: “feasibility studies and appraisals are garbage”
Bob: “then why do we order them?”
Cree: “it makes our regulators happy”
Bob: “you think you’re smarter than everyone, don’t you?”
Cree: “I’m smarter than you”
Bob: “you’re an asshole”
Cree: “maybe, but I’m still smarter than you”
CSU has a lot of Bobs in its C-suites.
Bob: “can I keep the pen?”
It must drive you crazy knowing that your job depends on Bob doing his job.
Apologies, I should’ve used the sarcasm font. There were ample opposition opinions given prior to constructIon regarding the financial risks.
That’s not really true at larger institutions. And not all lenders are like Bob. Bob is either stupid or greedy, or a combination of both.
Here’s the larger point: CU built it’s stadium close to 100 years ago (1924) and during the last renovation spent somewhere around $170 million, which they initially funded through a $150 million bond offering. However, I believe they had raised $60 million at the outset through a capital campaign, so we are talking about a net figure of say $110 million. CU’s conference pay out is around $25 million, so you are leveraging that cash flow (without consideration of other sources) at 4x. Pretty conservative in a low rate environment.
CSU spent $220 million on a smaller stadium, with far fewer bells and whistles. I don’t know how much they raised in their capital campaign, but let’s say they equally raised $60 million like CU to get to a net number around $160 million. Their conference payout is a mere $2 million annually, so they’ve leveraged that cash flow stream at 80x versus CU at 4x.
Now, I understand that I’m playing loose with these numbers, but I get Kizla’s point. The only way to arrive at reasonable repayment capacity was to throw in a bunch of projections in a feasibility study the included higher attendance, greater average ticket prices, and supplemental stadium revenue from (Lady Gaga) concerts. Now, someone should’ve questioned those projections. It’s hard to tell because the product on the field was bad, but I don’t believe there has been any sustained increase in attendance figures. Further, I think Kizla’s jab on the tailgating was to allude to the fact that the on campus stadium is great for students (who pay little for tickets), but horrible for fans and alumni who now have a difficult drive into town and fewer tailgating options. To my knowledge, Lady G has never been to Ft. Collins. An independent professor, outside of the State of Colorado, looked at the projections and called them highly questionable. There were dissenting voices. But the Bobs won out. After all, they had a feasibility study, you know.
The Canvas Stadium construction company made its money, the bond holders will get paid, and perhaps Dr. Frank got a grand achievement, but someone will be left paying for this because it is not coming from a new TV contract or gate revenue. I suspect the students or taxpayers will get stuck with the tab one way or another, probably indirectly through some backhanded way.
So it isn't feasible?
Cree is right in that every feasibility study says every project is technically “feasible”. Anybody who read that CSU study saw the assumptions it was based on in terms of add on revenue and increased ticket sales. I don’t recall that the study made the assumption that they’d get a P5 invite, but it was pretty aggressive in its revenue projections.
Just the Lady Gaga receipts alone...
lvbuff
Well-Known Member
I heard many times that a cousin of a ram fan girlfriend had ties to the Big 10 and an invite was imminent. Unfortunately, the lack of interest from the FBI to investigate bad pass interference calls resulted in the Big 10 reneging on the offer. It was later determined that the ran fan girl friend had a “scorching case of genital herpes”*
*Ferris Bueller’s Day Off
Wish I could say this was all a surprise.
Feasibility studies as @Creebuzz points out are almost universally positive. They are paid for by those who want a project to happen and they go find a consultant who will give them what they want it to say.
Past history has shown that new stadiums don't result in lasting big bumps to attendance, IIRC most other schools that have done it have seen long term gains averaging 5-10%. None has sustained the >25% that CSU counted on to make this thing work.
Concerts and events are another element that was greatly overstated (Lady Gaga aside) Canvas has not become a major concert venue. I tried to find any information on the frequency and size of events at the stadium and came up with this from 2018 https://www.coloradoan.com/story/en...rado-states-canvas-stadium-season/1044497002/ It seems like major (as in paying) concert events there are rarer than football wins over significant opponents.
The future doesn't look bright. They aren't getting an invite to a major conference soon (or ever,) the prospects for MWC money to increase significantly are slim. They are in a rut as a second level team in their conference, not good enough to get marginal fans excited and inspired to come out.
Nationally attendance at live sporting events including college football has been trending down. I can't imagine the Covid crisis doing anything to help reverse that trend. My guess would be (and this will hit many college programs) that many fans after staying home this year will be hard to bring back. For a place like CSU where football isn't a significant part of the general culture that will be harder.
Long term the changing landscape of college athletics is going to be even worse for schools like CSU. They will not be able to keep up with the spending and fall further from competitiveness. Long term I see a major re-alignment of college football with an elite division of money programs (most but not all of the current P5 schools,) at the top level. A significant step down we will see those P5 schools that fall out, most of the current G5 schools, and some of the top FCS programs, this is where CSU and most of the MWC end up. Below that we have the bottom of the current FCS (schools like UNC) and the D2 schools. In this whole process a number of schools will likely just quit playing football (San Jose State I.E.) A few will try to fight it expending a lot of money to stay "big time" but end up failing and having to swallow those expenditures. Based on their irrational decision to spend on Lady Gaga Stadium I could see a very vocal core of CSU supporter push for this.
The concern is, and I expressed this while they were still in the process of trying to get the thing built, is that as their financial projections fall apart they will have to take significant money from student programs to pay for it. At that point some legislators in Denver (Jack Kroll types) decide to sponsor and get passed some sweeping bills dealing with campus projects that will limit what CU can do both in athletics and other areas even though CU has been financially responsible and not put the money going into students at risk.
Feasibility studies as @Creebuzz points out are almost universally positive. They are paid for by those who want a project to happen and they go find a consultant who will give them what they want it to say.
Past history has shown that new stadiums don't result in lasting big bumps to attendance, IIRC most other schools that have done it have seen long term gains averaging 5-10%. None has sustained the >25% that CSU counted on to make this thing work.
Concerts and events are another element that was greatly overstated (Lady Gaga aside) Canvas has not become a major concert venue. I tried to find any information on the frequency and size of events at the stadium and came up with this from 2018 https://www.coloradoan.com/story/en...rado-states-canvas-stadium-season/1044497002/ It seems like major (as in paying) concert events there are rarer than football wins over significant opponents.
The future doesn't look bright. They aren't getting an invite to a major conference soon (or ever,) the prospects for MWC money to increase significantly are slim. They are in a rut as a second level team in their conference, not good enough to get marginal fans excited and inspired to come out.
Nationally attendance at live sporting events including college football has been trending down. I can't imagine the Covid crisis doing anything to help reverse that trend. My guess would be (and this will hit many college programs) that many fans after staying home this year will be hard to bring back. For a place like CSU where football isn't a significant part of the general culture that will be harder.
Long term the changing landscape of college athletics is going to be even worse for schools like CSU. They will not be able to keep up with the spending and fall further from competitiveness. Long term I see a major re-alignment of college football with an elite division of money programs (most but not all of the current P5 schools,) at the top level. A significant step down we will see those P5 schools that fall out, most of the current G5 schools, and some of the top FCS programs, this is where CSU and most of the MWC end up. Below that we have the bottom of the current FCS (schools like UNC) and the D2 schools. In this whole process a number of schools will likely just quit playing football (San Jose State I.E.) A few will try to fight it expending a lot of money to stay "big time" but end up failing and having to swallow those expenditures. Based on their irrational decision to spend on Lady Gaga Stadium I could see a very vocal core of CSU supporter push for this.
The concern is, and I expressed this while they were still in the process of trying to get the thing built, is that as their financial projections fall apart they will have to take significant money from student programs to pay for it. At that point some legislators in Denver (Jack Kroll types) decide to sponsor and get passed some sweeping bills dealing with campus projects that will limit what CU can do both in athletics and other areas even though CU has been financially responsible and not put the money going into students at risk.
CSU's offense philosophy will change as well. Will be more focused on the run. I don't think that former Husker QB will necessarily be a good fit for that offense.
Even if CU has questions of its own on offense, the Buffs should win in Ft. Collins no questions asked.
i know the Lady Gaga thing has been a running source of amusement here for a while, if their feasibility study and revenue plan was really based on concert sales, they never should've gotten the loan.
I've followed the live music scene in CO fairly closely for the last 6.5 years:
I've followed the live music scene in CO fairly closely for the last 6.5 years:
- the Denver/Boulder metro area is over-saturated on music venues already, and that metro area likely contains > 90% of the Colorado concert attendees.
- FoCo with it's <200k population can't fill up shows at the Aggie Theatre (650 capacity). there isn't the market to justify a large concert venue.
- if the feasibility study assumed Denver/Boulder people would travel to FoCo for big concerts, they need to explain why the Budweiser Events Center in Loveland (7200 capacity) can't attract acts better than those you see at Midwest State Fairs (and not sell out).
It sucks to be a CSU Ram.
The Loveland arena is in direct competition with the Broomfield arena and loses out by proximity. They were both built at about the same time and both were homes for minor league hockey. At least Loveland keeps the Eagles.
I didn't realize that. I do think the Broomfield venue is great for live music.
Budweiser events center is propped up by the Eagles. If they didn't exist, or go away, then that facility goes away. I have no idea how Broomfield events center stays in business