2023 5 star recruit guaranteed $8mm in NIL

[Buffnik]

The PAC is ****ed…

<disclaimer- I know this will never happen>
If I’m the new incoming President of CU, I take a hard look at leaving the conference and dropping football.

At the current trajectory of CFB, how long until CU is just hemorrhaging money to keep a FB team afloat? With no hope of every really competing.

I’d focus on competitive Mens and Womens teams in Bball, Soccer, Lacrosse, and add both mens and womens hockey. You would have natural rivals in all of these sports right in state with DU, CC, AFA and could join the NCHC for hockey and immediately become one of the bigger fish in that pond.

Football just seems like an albatross in the changing landscape of college athletics. I can’t imagine the juice is worth the squeeze much longer for schools like CU with regard to football.

The thing is, the court sports can maybe get to where they pay for themselves as a group even though they currently do not (MBB, WBB, VB). Everything else runs at a major loss which football has to cover.

So it's not about dropping football. It's about running that program efficiently by trying to be a stable program that finds its way to a bowl game almost every year and gives fans a season to get excited about once or twice a decade.

That dovetails with the idea behind your post -- don't invest every spare dollar into football and start using resources to build up the court & field sports to champion contenders. Doing that just might have the consequence of building an AD culture, national prestige & larger fan/booster base which lifts football as a consequence. The CU mindset of being all about football while sucking at it doesn't accomplish anything good.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

The PAC is ****ed…

<disclaimer- I know this will never happen>
If I’m the new incoming President of CU, I take a hard look at leaving the conference and dropping football.

At the current trajectory of CFB, how long until CU is just hemorrhaging money to keep a FB team afloat? With no hope of every really competing.

I’d focus on competitive Mens and Womens teams in Bball, Soccer, Lacrosse, and add both mens and womens hockey. You would have natural rivals in all of these sports right in state with DU, CC, AFA and could join the NCHC for hockey and immediately become one of the bigger fish in that pond.

Football just seems like an albatross in the changing landscape of college athletics. I can’t imagine the juice is worth the squeeze much longer for schools like CU with regard to football.

The albatross that still turns a huge profit, especially once the new media deal kicks in, and allows those other sports to exist.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

The thing is, the court sports can maybe get to where they pay for themselves as a group even though they currently do not (MBB, WBB, VB). Everything else runs at a major loss which football has to cover.

So it's not about dropping football. It's about running that program efficiently by trying to be a stable program that finds its way to a bowl game almost every year and gives fans a season to get excited about once or twice a decade.

That dovetails with the idea behind your post -- don't invest every spare dollar into football and start using resources to build up the court & field sports to champion contenders. Doing that just might have the consequence of building an AD culture, national prestige & larger fan/booster base which lifts football as a consequence. The CU mindset of being all about football while sucking at it doesn't accomplish anything good.

It’s really not that hard. Gary and Branch continually operate with the mindset that if CU can’t pay $8m for a recruit, football isn’t worth having as a sport. No, we aren’t competing for national titles again. There’s a massive area between where CU currently stands as a program, and being Alabama. Hire better coaches. Period.

 

[Liver]

The thing is, the court sports can maybe get to where they pay for themselves as a group even though they currently do not (MBB, WBB, VB). Everything else runs at a major loss which football has to cover.

So it's not about dropping football. It's about running that program efficiently by trying to be a stable program that finds its way to a bowl game almost every year and gives fans a season to get excited about once or twice a decade.

That dovetails with the idea behind your post -- don't invest every spare dollar into football and start using resources to build up the court & field sports to champion contenders. Doing that just might have the consequence of building an AD culture, national prestige & larger fan/booster base which lifts football as a consequence. The CU mindset of being all about football while sucking at it doesn't accomplish anything good.

i dunno. i hate this but it may be the new reality. the football program is basically supposed to pay for everything else through tv and gate. but we aren't competitive and the p12 tv deal is not competitive. add NIL and it gets even more grim. without some new rules in place for NIL, there are going to be about 15-20 football programs capable of competing for championships and we are not one of them by a wide margin.

i find all of this to be off putting in terms of my fan support. i have nothing against centering the revenue plan around men's bb if that is what is best, but this isn't meeting my expectations for fb success in any case.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

i dunno. i hate this but it may be the new reality. the football program is basically supposed to pay for everything else through tv and gate. but we aren't competitive and the p12 tv deal is not competitive. add NIL and it gets even more grim. without some new rules in place for NIL, there are going to be about 15-20 football programs capable of competing for championships and we are not one of them by a wide margin.

i find all of this to be off putting in terms of my fan support. i have nothing against centering the revenue plan around men's bb if that is what is best, but this isn't meeting my expectations for fb success in any case.

The new Pac 12 media deal will be a massive boon for the CUAD. No, it won’t be on par with the SEC or B1G but it will be a huge windfall that CU has never had before. This alone is worth keeping Football and it will keep the other sports, including MBB, operating.

Besides, if the focus shifted entirely to MBB, fans would have to raise expectations to a point where they aren’t happy with the NIT in most years.

 

[Gary Indiana]

The albatross that still turns a huge profit, especially once the new media deal kicks in, and allows those other sports to exist.

An Analysis Of College Football Return On Investment

AthleticDirectorU presents the most comprehensive analysis of college football program spending and return on investment over the last two decades.

www.athleticdirectoru.com

And this is pre NLI figures.

 

[hokiehead]

I think one solution that seems reasonable is for FCS to grow and include the FBS schools that aren't in a position to compete in the NIL era.

Let those 6 - 12 teams compete for the CFP, LLC championship. Schools like CU and VT can still have a meaningful and relevant football program that more resembles the college athletics we are accustomed to.

 

[hokiehead]

An Analysis Of College Football Return On Investment

AthleticDirectorU presents the most comprehensive analysis of college football program spending and return on investment over the last two decades.

www.athleticdirectoru.com

And this is pre NLI figures.

first, thanks for posting.

I was really excited when I saw the headline of this piece, but the author measures 'return' solely in terms of football wins, neglecting increased admissions, overall improvement to the university's band, benefits to other sports, merchandise sales, ticket sales, concession sales, etc...

i think calling this an "ROI analysis" is inaccurate, as it leaves out (arguably) the greatest return benefits.

 

[Gary Indiana]

It’s really not that hard. Gary and Branch continually operate with the mindset that if CU can’t pay $8m for a recruit, football isn’t worth having as a sport. No, we aren’t competing for national titles again. There’s a massive area between where CU currently stands as a program, and being Alabama. Hire better coaches. Period.

We can’t afford better coaches. That’s part of my larger point.

-We can’t afford top tier recruits
-The players we develop get poached to schools that can afford to pay them
-We can’t afford top coaches
-The coaches that do well get poached 12-24 months
- This has led to declining attendance and it looks like this year will be ugly for season tickets

How much longer can the AD sustain this if attendance and donations end up in free fall? My point is if I’m the incoming President, I’m probably looking at some other models for the AD that are less risky and volatile.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

An Analysis Of College Football Return On Investment

AthleticDirectorU presents the most comprehensive analysis of college football program spending and return on investment over the last two decades.

www.athleticdirectoru.com

And this is pre NLI figures.

I don't understand what that piece does to further your point or counter what I said.

 

[Gary Indiana]

first, thanks for posting.

I was really excited when I saw the headline of this piece, but the author measures 'return' solely in terms of football wins, neglecting increased admissions, overall improvement to the university's band, benefits to other sports, merchandise sales, ticket sales, concession sales, etc...

i think calling this an "ROI analysis" is inaccurate, as it leaves out (arguably) the greatest return benefits.

Yeah, I was posting to illustrate the amount of dollars that need to be invested inCFB to be relevant. I would also like a deeper dive on actual ROI figures.

 

[Liver]

The new Pac 12 media deal will be a massive boon for the CUAD. No, it won’t be on par with the SEC or B1G but it will be a huge windfall that CU has never had before. This alone is worth keeping Football and it will keep the other sports, including MBB, operating.

Besides, if the focus shifted entirely to MBB, fans would have to raise expectations to a point where they aren’t happy with the NIT in most years.

yeah, the deal will be historic for CU. and, it will also be too small to give us a reasonable chance to compete for championships in football. something has to give. the ncaa needs to regrow its fortitude and regulate NIL or something.

i am not where @Buffnik is on the possible rethinking of emphasis on the court sports, but there are a lot of warning signs out there and many of them are really beyond CU's control. personally, i would like to see us double-down on football. the tucker hire felt like that to a large extent. now? it feels like the ad just wants a program that isn't embarrassing on or off the field and maybe looks decent 1-2 times a decade. if this is the reality, then i do wonder about the commitment of fans and boosters. i want to see CU compete in football at the highest level. if we cannot, then i dunno anymore ...

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

We can’t afford better coaches. That’s part of my larger point.

-We can’t afford top tier recruits
-The players we develop get poached to schools that can afford to pay them
-We can’t afford top coaches
-The coaches that do well get poached 12-24 months
- This has led to declining attendance and it looks like this year will be ugly for season tickets

How much longer can the AD sustain this if attendance and donations end up in free fall? My point is if I’m the incoming President, I’m probably looking at some other models for the AD that are less risky and volatile.

It just feels like you are looking at all of this through the lens of, "if we can't compete with the SEC and B1G elites, why should we even field a program". No, we can't afford to double another P5 coaches salary to poach him at the 11th hour like Michigan State did. No, we can't pay a recruit $8m over 3 years to come play here. I don't know why that means we need to drop the program. The vast majority of P5 programs can't do any of that either.

 

[Gary Indiana]

I don't understand what that piece does to further your point or counter what I said.

We just borrowed $18m from the conference last year to cover losses. I don’t think football is doing as well at CU as you’re imagining it is.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

yeah, the deal will be historic for CU. and, it will also be too small to give us a reasonable chance to compete for championships in football. something has to give. the ncaa needs to regrow its fortitude and regulate NIL or something.

i am not where @Buffnik is on the possible rethinking of emphasis on the court sports, but there are a lot of warning signs out there and many of them are really beyond CU's control. personally, i would like to see us double-down on football. the tucker hire felt like that to a large extent. now? it feels like the ad just wants a program that isn't embarrassing on or off the field and maybe looks decent 1-2 times a decade. if this is the reality, then i do wonder about the commitment of fans and boosters. i want to see CU compete in football at the highest level. if we cannot, then i dunno anymore ...

I remember having the conversation on this board about the expectations going forward for CU football 3-4 years ago and most people said 6-8 wins consistently and competing for a Pac 12 Championship every 7-10 years. Along the same lines, we have always known this program is a stepping stone program for coaches and it's been discussed ad naseum. We are going to lose coaches to bigger programs. Again, the vast majority of P5 programs are in the same boat with that.

Make better coaching hires (yes, this can be done) and winning 6 games/year isn't hard.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

We just borrowed $18m from the conference last year to cover losses. I don’t think football is doing as well at CU as you’re imagining it is.

But i'm sure the AD will miraculously be able to fund the other sports and build those up to competitive levels if they just drop football, right?

 

[Not Sure]

Right now, football pays for all the other stuff. I think it’s a reasonable question to wonder how long that lasts. There will need to be some parameters placed around NIL to keep it from getting out of control. Well, hold on a sec. It’s already out of control. The restrictions will be needed to reign in some of the insanity in order to keep the sport viable. Long term, I think we may have to resign ourselves to the possibility that college football has a limited shelf life, and may be in the beginning stages of a decline from which CU - and about 100 other schools - will never recover.

I’ll add that it’s pretty unrealistic to expect CU to be an immediate player in the NCHC. The NCHC would have no incentive to admit CU, and between DU, UND, Duluth and St Cloud, has four of the all time strongest hockey programs in college hockey. You don’t just waltz in to a conference like that and expect to compete.

 

[Jens1893]

I remember having the conversation on this board about the expectations going forward for CU football 3-4 years ago and most people said 6-8 wins consistently and competing for a Pac 12 Championship every 7-10 years. Along the same lines, we have always known this program is a stepping stone program for coaches and it's been discussed ad naseum. We are going to lose coaches to bigger programs. Again, the vast majority of P5 programs are in the same boat with that.

Make better coaching hires (yes, this can be done) and winning 6 games/year isn't hard.

We will now also be losing players to bigger programs. ^^

 

[Gary Indiana]

I remember having the conversation on this board about the expectations going forward for CU football 3-4 years ago and most people said 6-8 wins consistently and competing for a Pac 12 Championship every 7-10 years. Along the same lines, we have always known this program is a stepping stone program for coaches and it's been discussed ad naseum. We are going to lose coaches to bigger programs. Again, the vast majority of P5 programs are in the same boat with that.

Make better coaching hires (yes, this can be done) and winning 6 games/year isn't hard.

And when was the last time we were meeting those expectations? 20 years ago? What makes you believe the evolving landscape will make things any easier for CU?

 

[Jens1893]

Right now, football pays for all the other stuff. I think it’s a reasonable question to wonder how long that lasts. There will need to be some parameters placed around NIL to keep it from getting out of control. Well, hold on a sec. It’s already out of control. The restrictions will be needed to reign in some of the insanity in order to keep the sport viable. Long term, I think we may have to resign ourselves to the possibility that college football has a limited shelf life, and may be in the beginning stages of a decline from which CU - and about 100 other schools - will never recover.

I’ll add that it’s pretty unrealistic to expect CU to be an immediate player in the NCHC. The NCHC would have no incentive to admit CU, and between DU, UND, Duluth and St Cloud, has four of the all time strongest hockey programs in college hockey. You don’t just waltz in to a conference like that and expect to compete.

Is your point that interest will drop in the level of CFB CU competes at and that will drive down TV revenues as everyone will just focus and throw money at the super league and leave the other conferences fighting for whatever scraps are left over?

 

[Not Sure]

Is your point that interest will drop in the level of CFB CU competes at and that will drive down TV revenues as everyone will just focus and throw money at the super league and leave the other conferences fighting for whatever scraps are left over?

I think that’s one very possible outcome. I think there are several ways the landscape can change over the next 5-10 years, and it would be wise to start working on some of the calculus to position ourselves accordingly. One potential outcome is that the PAC 12 folds, with 2-3 teams joining some kind of super conference and the rear are left to fend for themselves. That’s basically what has happened to the B12.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

And when was the last time we were meeting those expectations? 20 years ago? What makes you believe the evolving landscape will make things any easier for CU?

Pre-NIL: Mike ****ing MacIntyre built the program to a 10 game winner and then two consecutive 5-7 seasons, where any competent gameday coach would have easily won at least 6 games both those seasons. Same could be said for Tucker's first season at CU. He didn't have any crazy upsets but lost to AFA and Arizona at home to go 5-7. The 6 win mark has been elusive for CU since 2016, but it's not some systemic issue.

NIL era: CU is in the same position as the majority of P5 programs with this. I also tend to believe the novelty of NIL is going to wear off and things will settle down a bit for 90% of recruits/players. The transfer rules are having a greater impact than NIL right now and there is talk about amending those rules to something other than free transfers for all.

 

[Gary Indiana]

Pre-NIL: Mike ****ing MacIntyre built the program to a 10 game winner and then two consecutive 5-7 seasons, where any competent gameday coach would have easily won at least 6 games both those seasons. Same could be said for Tucker's first season at CU. He didn't have any crazy upsets but lost to AFA and Arizona at home to go 5-7. The 6 win mark has been elusive for CU since 2016, but it's not some systemic issue.

NIL era: CU is in the same position as the majority of P5 programs with this. I also tend to believe the novelty of NIL is going to wear off and things will settle down a bit for 90% of recruits/players. The transfer rules are having a greater impact than NIL right now and there is talk about amending those rules to something other than free transfers for all.

How is Tucker getting poached by MSU after 12 months not a sign of a systemic issue at CU?

And your pointing to one season in the last decade plus as evidence that we can be successful? I believe it proves the exact opposite. We’re a lot closer to Kansas than MSU (who isn’t even elite).

 

[patebuff]

When you have coaches like Saban demanding that regulations and a governing body is needed, you know the system is broken.

CFB will need a commissioner with a governing body and have very specific rules for NIL. Those rules need to be very clear and harsh if anyone breaks them. I think we eventually get there as everyone knows they need this to survive as a sport. Until then, it'll still be the wild wild west.

 

[WarBuff]

How is Tucker getting poached by MSU after 12 months not a sign of a systemic issue at CU?

And your pointing to one season in the last decade plus as evidence that we can be successful? I believe it proves the exact opposite. We’re a lot closer to Kansas than MSU (who isn’t even elite).

It is interesting that a first time HC with a losing record in his only year as a HC even registered on any search. I was disappointed to see him go but wondered why the huge excitement to get someone who didn’t even improve the WL record of the previous coach.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

How is Tucker getting poached by MSU after 12 months not a sign of a systemic issue at CU?

And your pointing to one season in the last decade plus as evidence that we can be successful? I believe it proves the exact opposite. We’re a lot closer to Kansas than MSU (who isn’t even elite).

The Tucker situation is pretty unique in that he was MSU's 2nd choice, he turned down their initial offer, and then they came back in over the top to take him and make him a top 10 paid coach in the sport after one season going 5-7. That isn't normal, they were desperate.

Again, we have had this discussion around CU losing coaches. It's going to happen. Unfortunately, our chicken **** AD folded and went with the path of least resistance instead of swinging again.

I'm not pointing to the 10 win season as evidence. I'm saying that a below average HC got this program from bottom feeder to the Pac 12 Championship Game and had there not been epic collapses the following two seasons, would have had the program at the 6-8 win/season mark that we all have expectations for. My point is, there is a lot of room between 6 wins and competing with the top 10 in the country. CU absolutely has the budget and resources to field a consistent bowl program. They don't currently have the people in place at any level to do that, though.

 

[Jens1893]

When you have coaches like Saban demanding that regulations and a governing body is needed, you know the system is broken.

CFB will need a commissioner with a governing body and have very specific rules for NIL. Those rules need to be very clear and harsh if anyone breaks them. I think we eventually get there as everyone knows they need this to survive as a sport. Until then, it'll still be the wild wild west.

The issue is that all such moves will be tailored towards the needs and demands of the top 20 programs and not the top 120 programs as the power solely lies with the top 20 and there's a very real threat of them doing their own thing if they don't get what they want.

 

[Gary Indiana]

The Tucker situation is pretty unique in that he was MSU's 2nd choice, he turned down their initial offer, and then they came back in over the top to take him and make him a top 10 paid coach in the sport after one season going 5-7. That isn't normal, they were desperate.

Again, we have had this discussion around CU losing coaches. It's going to happen. Unfortunately, our chicken **** AD folded and went with the path of least resistance instead of swinging again.

I'm not pointing to the 10 win season as evidence. I'm saying that a below average HC got this program from bottom feeder to the Pac 12 Championship Game and had there not been epic collapses the following two seasons, would have had the program at the 6-8 win/season mark that we all have expectations for. My point is, there is a lot of room between 6 wins and competing with the top 10 in the country. CU absolutely has the budget and resources to field a consistent bowl program. They don't currently have the people in place at any level to do that, though.

I don’t think there was anything unique about the Tucker situation. This is the new normal.

Let’s say CU fires KD after this season and the new guy wins 7-8 games in his first year. He’s gone. Some bigger budget school will just come and poach him. When coaches are getting poached from ND and OK, I don’t think it’s fair to call the Tucker situation an anomaly.

 

[Buffs35]

We just borrowed $18m from the conference last year to cover losses. I don’t think football is doing as well at CU as you’re imagining it is.

Maybe CU should just raise ticket prices to make up the difference.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

I don’t think there was anything unique about the Tucker situation. This is the new normal.

Let’s say CU fires KD after this season and the new guy wins 7-8 games in his first year. He’s gone. Some bigger budget school will just come and poach him. When coaches are getting poached from ND and OK, I don’t think it’s fair to call the Tucker situation an anomaly.

I think looking at context and details is important and with that in mind, I believe it is unique. To your hypothetical, you could be right, but bigger programs poaching successful coaches from smaller programs is nothing new. I also don't think blue bloods poaching blue bloods is anything new, nor does it say much about CU's situation.

Regardless, I think this is veering away from your initial post and the reason I responded. Dropping football doesn't make much sense, and for the life of me, I don't really understand why a fan would carry that mindset, but then again, you have been fairly outspoken about your level of interest in CFB as a whole.