2023 CFB Predictions/Gambling Thread

[chase5857]

I like Army -7.5 at Louisiana Monroe on Sept 2. I’m waiting to see if goes to -7 though. I’ll bet it either way or even at -8. Army is going to a more balanced offense this year so there will be some adjustments, but ULM looks to be really bad, again, and lost a lot of guys to the portal.

That’s my obscure game of that week.

Got steamed today to -10

 

[PAHIBuff]

Got steamed today to -10

It sure did. Damn.

 

[crosby87]

Army are going to a shotgun, correct? would have to think that's going to be hard after all the years of running with no ability to add in the portal..

 

[PAHIBuff]

Army are going to a shotgun, correct? would have to think that's going to be hard after all the years of running with no ability to add in the portal..

Yeah, that’s a big change for sure. The roster is RB heavy and WR short, as you’d expect.

 

[Duff Man]

PAC 12: Washington
SEC: LSU
ACC: Clemson
Big 10: Penn State
Big 12: Kansas State

 

[Highlander]

Army are going to a shotgun, correct? would have to think that's going to be hard after all the years of running with no ability to add in the portal..

Interesting reasoning behind it.

Army’s opponents will no longer have to defend the under-center triple option. This spring, Monken is doing the unthinkable and moving his team to a primarily shotgun offense. He felt he didn’t have a choice in the wake of an under-the-radar NCAA rules change last year that eliminated blocking below the waist — known as cut blocking — anywhere but inside the tackle box.

Army in the shotgun? Why Jeff Monken is changing how triple-option offense runs

Monken felt he had to switch Army to the shotgun in the wake of an under-the-radar NCAA rules change last year.

theathletic.com

 

[Buffnik]

Switching to a passing attack is going to be really challenging for the OL.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Switching to a passing attack is going to be really challenging for the OL.

I didn’t read the article but are they really moving to a passing attack or are they likely still running triple option from shotgun?

 

[CarolinaBuff]

ACC - FSU
Big 12 - Texas
B1G - PSU
SEC - Alabama
Pac12 - Oregon

ACC: Noles are loaded and Clemson doesn't have the playmakers they had during their dominant run. I'll be very surprised if the CCG isn't FSU-Clemson.

Big 12: I think Texas loses to Alabama plus at least 1 conference game but will make the CCG and win it. Not even sure who their best competition in the Big12 is, probably KSU.

B1G: Michigan, OSU and PSU are all pretty close in talent level and I think this is the year PSU breaks thru. The key game is against Michigan and PSU gets them at home.

SEC: Alabama. Yes they have uncertainty at QB and word is nobody is stepping up at WR but Rees will have them playing a more smash mouth style and defense should be stout. A&M could surprise especially if Weigman is the real deal. LSU should be very good but losing to Bama will be the difference in the West. Georgia will obviously win the East but they drop a random game somewhere along the way and then Bama gets them in the CCG.

Pac12: Half the teams are capable of winning the conference so I see this as kind of a crapshoot. USC was +22 in turnovers last year, D is still a liability and the back half of that schedule is rough. Not sold on DJ at OSU. UW meh, and their OL is not good. Utah, maybe but I think they drop a couple in conference in addition to 1 non-conference game. UCLA, no.

 

[hawg1]

I took o49 in ND game.

 

[Da Lama]

Switching to a passing attack is going to be really challenging for the OL.

It's going to be run heavy. There's lots of triple option you can run out of gun. And I'm assuming it may look more like a pistol.

 

[PAHIBuff]

It's going to be run heavy. There's lots of triple option you can run out of gun. And I'm assuming it may look more like a pistol.

I think it might trend that way after a few games but some of the publications are listing the offense as 1 RB and 3 WRs. I still think the QB(s) will wind up carrying the ball a lot - it’s in the Army DNA. Army without a FB is just weird.

 

[InTheBuff]

I think the best bet I can see for O/U might be Vandy over 3.5.
I'm hammering that.

I can see three wins against Bama A&M, Hawaii and UNLV, but having a hard time finding the fourth.

 

[ahoelsken]

Ask @manhattanbuff. I am willing to risk my money, not yours.

You're off on an island with the 49 point CU W. That 20.5 is way too much. TCU does take a step back, but I think they win 8-9 games still. If CU wins, it'll be something like 38-31.

63-14 is what I've got the CSU game at.

 

[ahoelsken]

Interesting reasoning behind it.

Army’s opponents will no longer have to defend the under-center triple option. This spring, Monken is doing the unthinkable and moving his team to a primarily shotgun offense. He felt he didn’t have a choice in the wake of an under-the-radar NCAA rules change last year that eliminated blocking below the waist — known as cut blocking — anywhere but inside the tackle box.

Army in the shotgun? Why Jeff Monken is changing how triple-option offense runs

Monken felt he had to switch Army to the shotgun in the wake of an under-the-radar NCAA rules change last year.

theathletic.com

I've read that. It makes me wonder if Army's going to more of a Rich Rodriguez type offense.

 

[crosby87]

The UMASS spread opened at 9.5 I believe... That's amazing to me...the new QB was at Clemson/GT, but he hasn't been any good. I feel like NMST, who won a bowl game can handle -7 at home against a 1-11 UMASS team. Beat them last year. UMASS are brutal on the road. yes they did ok in the transfer market, for them. Kill is perfect for NMST btw.

Gonna be really hot and humid for Vandy/UH. V smoked them last season 63-10. Did some cursory research, Vandys DL is hurting but....come on....Again -17.5 almost seems too easy.

anyone have any thoughts?

 

[hawg1]

You're off on an island with the 49 point CU W. That 20.5 is way too much. TCU does take a step back, but I think they win 8-9 games still. If CU wins, it'll be something like 38-31.

63-14 is what I've got the CSU game at.

I am very willing to risk my money on #1’s game line. Please let me in.

 

[ahoelsken]

I am very willing to risk my money on #1’s game line. Please let me in.

Oh I'll take TCU and 49 points as well.

 

[CarolinaBuff]

SDSU is about a 3-point favorite of Ohio, I heard a quick blurb this morning that one of SDSU's corners is out and Ohio likes to sling the ball around. That's all I got.

 

[rscmac]

Points bet has cu getting 21 against tcu now if anyone is looking.

 

[PhillyBuff]

PAC 12: Washington
SEC: LSU
ACC: Clemson
Big 10: Penn State
Big 12: Kansas State

What is it about Penn State that you like over Ohio State and Michigan? Those 2 teams will win the Big 10 every year for the forseeable future. They both have such a huge recruiting advantage over every Big 10 team.

For PSU to win their division, they have to beat BOTH OSU (1-9) & Michigan (4-6) (Mich State (5-5)gives them fits most years).

It won't happen anytime soon with Franklin at the helm.

 

[PhillyBuff]

ACC - FSU
Big 12 - Texas
B1G - PSU
SEC - Alabama
Pac12 - Oregon

ACC: Noles are loaded and Clemson doesn't have the playmakers they had during their dominant run. I'll be very surprised if the CCG isn't FSU-Clemson.

Big 12: I think Texas loses to Alabama plus at least 1 conference game but will make the CCG and win it. Not even sure who their best competition in the Big12 is, probably KSU.

B1G: Michigan, OSU and PSU are all pretty close in talent level and I think this is the year PSU breaks thru. The key game is against Michigan and PSU gets them at home.

SEC: Alabama. Yes they have uncertainty at QB and word is nobody is stepping up at WR but Rees will have them playing a more smash mouth style and defense should be stout. A&M could surprise especially if Weigman is the real deal. LSU should be very good but losing to Bama will be the difference in the West. Georgia will obviously win the East but they drop a random game somewhere along the way and then Bama gets them in the CCG.

Pac12: Half the teams are capable of winning the conference so I see this as kind of a crapshoot. USC was +22 in turnovers last year, D is still a liability and the back half of that schedule is rough. Not sold on DJ at OSU. UW meh, and their OL is not good. Utah, maybe but I think they drop a couple in conference in addition to 1 non-conference game. UCLA, no.

PSU just cant beat OSU. They are 1-9 against them and this year they play them at OSU. PSU is not winning their division. Maybe they beat Michigan, butMichigan is the better team. PSU has at least 2 losses in their conference EVERY year except for 2016 and 2008. PSU is a good team, not a great team.

 

[DBT]

Here's my prediction:

Colorado can win every game but I am not expecting them to but it's possible.

Compare favorably to last year's TCU squad.

Strengths: QB1, WRs, Tackles1, Centers, RBs, EDGEs, Safeties, CB1/2/3, starting interior DLs, STs
Areas that can surprise you: TEs, CB depth, backup DLs
Weaknesses: QB depth, OL depth, Interior DL overall numbers (5 players), LBs.

Hard to stop: Skill players, passing attack, rushing attack, EDGE rushing on +5 3rd downs, poor passing attempts, or bad decision-making by the opp QB
What to try to beat CU: Rushing up the middle, testing TE's experience, testing CU OL in space, testing LBs on running downs, testing the young CBs.

TCU: I have this as a blowout win for CU. 63-14. Mirror images. CU more prepped for TCU. TCU overly confident just due to outside noise. CU has too much primetime players.

Nebraska: I find this to be a challenging game. Big OL like TCU but not as good as TCU. Good backs like TCU, no studs. But they actually plan on playing with 9-10 in the formation. They will test CU's lack of interior size and smaller safeties outside of Slusher. Also, I am much higher on Jeff Sims. While passing might not be how he's going to compete in this game, rushing will be and Prime has struggled with run-first QBs who are smart and make good throws in the past, see Southern game. I have this as a toss-up or CU blowout. If CU gets up 14-0 or 21-0 early, it's over but if it's close, it can go either way.

CSU: Better than people expect but too much horsepower for CU. 56 points or more will be scored by CU. CSU has the ability to score 28 but I am leaning to 10 points for now.

Oregon: I expect Oregon to win this game. One of the best OLs in CF. Good running game. Stud at QB. A couple of WR studs. No real weaknesses on defense. I do believe if CU gets ahead early, CU would pull the upset but I am strongly leaning toward Oregon 35-21. If CU wins, 42-21. I don't believe in Bo Nix as a QB playing from behind with the pass rush pinning their ears back.

USC: Another major upset alert. I have CU beating USC. Obviously, health is key but USC doesn't match up well against CU. They give up too many big plays, and their overly aggressive defensive style will get them killed against CU. That said, USC will score and score often. CU isn't stopping Celeb but like TCU v. Michigan or USC v. Tulane, you just need a couple of timely stops. CU 49-42.

ASU: This should be a good game. Both teams improved during the portal. I expect Rashada to start. This game might just be a really bad matchup as CU has a mix of things to make this a long day for a true FR QB. I have this as his first bad game. I think he will play well in the others, including against USC who will crush ASU. CU 49-3

Stanford: Another game I expect to be tougher than expected. Still, CU should win this game. 28-7 CU

UCLA: I actually really think UCLA is an excellent team this year. 2nd best to Washington in the PAC. QB really matters so much. I have this as a toss-up. If CU was to win, 35-32. This will be a close game, no matter what. UCLA has enough to keep CU to a level overall.

Oregon State: Styles make fights. Another toss-up for me. Development means so much because injuries could hurt either team. If CU wins, I am expecting 24-21 CU. Expecting a close game. OSU can really run. This could easily go either way.

Arizona: I like Jayden De Laura, the football player. I like his weapons. I like their coach. But they don't have the ability to shoot with CU or stop them. Then again, I don't believe CU will stop them either. 63-56 CU wins. Edge CU. Could be close.

Washington State: This should be tough. In Pullman. Ward v. Sanders. It's all about how the DL plays v. Washington St. OL which struggled greatly last year. If they dominate and WSU can't match CU for points, this could be a long night for Ward. That said, 42-35 CU. Edge CU. Could be close.

Utah: Another team I have beating the Buffs but the Buffs can beat anyone. Just a tough matchup and injuries could play a key role for CU. That said, Utah has to stop CU insane offense. 28-21 Utah but if Utah can't stop CU passing attack, 42-24 CU.

No PAC-12CC or playoff predictions.

Wins: 7 and 2 were upsets (TCU and USC)
Toss-Ups: 3
Losses: 2

Development and health will be key for CU.

I currently have 40 good players on CU. 2 are studs. 8 could join as studs. 2 potential Heisman candidates, and 11 potentially good players like Dylan, and Cormani, for instance.)

Depth is a concern for me.

 

[buff4bcs1985]

Here's my prediction:

Colorado can win every game but I am not expecting them to but it's possible.

Compare favorably to last year's TCU squad.

Strengths: QB1, WRs, Tackles1, Centers, RBs, EDGEs, Safeties, CB1/2/3, starting interior DLs, STs
Areas that can surprise you: TEs, CB depth, backup DLs
Weaknesses: QB depth, OL depth, Interior DL overall numbers (5 players), LBs.

Hard to stop: Skill players, passing attack, rushing attack, EDGE rushing on +5 3rd downs, poor passing attempts, or bad decision-making by the opp QB
What to try to beat CU: Rushing up the middle, testing TE's experience, testing CU OL in space, testing LBs on running downs, testing the young CBs.

TCU: I have this as a blowout win for CU. 63-14. Mirror images. CU more prepped for TCU. TCU overly confident just due to outside noise. CU has too much primetime players.

Nebraska: I find this to be a challenging game. Big OL like TCU but not as good as TCU. Good backs like TCU, no studs. But they actually plan on playing with 9-10 in the formation. They will test CU's lack of interior size and smaller safeties outside of Slusher. Also, I am much higher on Jeff Sims. While passing might not be how he's going to compete in this game, rushing will be and Prime has struggled with run-first QBs who are smart and make good throws in the past, see Southern game. I have this as a toss-up or CU blowout. If CU gets up 14-0 or 21-0 early, it's over but if it's close, it can go either way.

CSU: Better than people expect but too much horsepower for CU. 56 points or more will be scored by CU. CSU has the ability to score 28 but I am leaning to 10 points for now.

Oregon: I expect Oregon to win this game. One of the best OLs in CF. Good running game. Stud at QB. A couple of WR studs. No real weaknesses on defense. I do believe if CU gets ahead early, CU would pull the upset but I am strongly leaning toward Oregon 35-21. If CU wins, 42-21. I don't believe in Bo Nix as a QB playing from behind with the pass rush pinning their ears back.

USC: Another major upset alert. I have CU beating USC. Obviously, health is key but USC doesn't match up well against CU. They give up too many big plays, and their overly aggressive defensive style will get them killed against CU. That said, USC will score and score often. CU isn't stopping Celeb but like TCU v. Michigan or USC v. Tulane, you just need a couple of timely stops. CU 49-42.

ASU: This should be a good game. Both teams improved during the portal. I expect Rashada to start. This game might just be a really bad matchup as CU has a mix of things to make this a long day for a true FR QB. I have this as his first bad game. I think he will play well in the others, including against USC who will crush ASU. CU 49-3

Stanford: Another game I expect to be tougher than expected. Still, CU should win this game. 28-7 CU

UCLA: I actually really think UCLA is an excellent team this year. 2nd best to Washington in the PAC. QB really matters so much. I have this as a toss-up. If CU was to win, 35-32. This will be a close game, no matter what. UCLA has enough to keep CU to a level overall.

Oregon State: Styles make fights. Another toss-up for me. Development means so much because injuries could hurt either team. If CU wins, I am expecting 24-21 CU. Expecting a close game. OSU can really run. This could easily go either way.

Arizona: I like Jayden De Laura, the football player. I like his weapons. I like their coach. But they don't have the ability to shoot with CU or stop them. Then again, I don't believe CU will stop them either. 63-56 CU wins. Edge CU. Could be close.

Washington State: This should be tough. In Pullman. Ward v. Sanders. It's all about how the DL plays v. Washington St. OL which struggled greatly last year. If they dominate and WSU can't match CU for points, this could be a long night for Ward. That said, 42-35 CU. Edge CU. Could be close.

Utah: Another team I have beating the Buffs but the Buffs can beat anyone. Just a tough matchup and injuries could play a key role for CU. That said, Utah has to stop CU insane offense. 28-21 Utah but if Utah can't stop CU passing attack, 42-24 CU.

No PAC-12CC or playoff predictions.

Wins: 7 and 2 were upsets (TCU and USC)
Toss-Ups: 3
Losses: 2

Development and health will be key for CU.

I currently have 40 good players on CU. 2 are studs. 8 could join as studs. 2 potential Heisman candidates, and 11 potentially good players like Dylan, and Cormani, for instance.)

Depth is a concern for me.

 

[cu3x]

USC will be aiming to score 60, as it chases the playoffs. 56 - 10.

I imagine there will be some fun in Dublin this afternoon. The Fighting Irish 43 - Navy 24.

I expect to be near perfect in my picks this year

 

[Da Lama]

Here's my prediction:

Colorado can win every game but I am not expecting them to but it's possible.

Compare favorably to last year's TCU squad.

Strengths: QB1, WRs, Tackles1, Centers, RBs, EDGEs, Safeties, CB1/2/3, starting interior DLs, STs
Areas that can surprise you: TEs, CB depth, backup DLs
Weaknesses: QB depth, OL depth, Interior DL overall numbers (5 players), LBs.

Hard to stop: Skill players, passing attack, rushing attack, EDGE rushing on +5 3rd downs, poor passing attempts, or bad decision-making by the opp QB
What to try to beat CU: Rushing up the middle, testing TE's experience, testing CU OL in space, testing LBs on running downs, testing the young CBs.

TCU: I have this as a blowout win for CU. 63-14. Mirror images. CU more prepped for TCU. TCU overly confident just due to outside noise. CU has too much primetime players.

Nebraska: I find this to be a challenging game. Big OL like TCU but not as good as TCU. Good backs like TCU, no studs. But they actually plan on playing with 9-10 in the formation. They will test CU's lack of interior size and smaller safeties outside of Slusher. Also, I am much higher on Jeff Sims. While passing might not be how he's going to compete in this game, rushing will be and Prime has struggled with run-first QBs who are smart and make good throws in the past, see Southern game. I have this as a toss-up or CU blowout. If CU gets up 14-0 or 21-0 early, it's over but if it's close, it can go either way.

CSU: Better than people expect but too much horsepower for CU. 56 points or more will be scored by CU. CSU has the ability to score 28 but I am leaning to 10 points for now.

Oregon: I expect Oregon to win this game. One of the best OLs in CF. Good running game. Stud at QB. A couple of WR studs. No real weaknesses on defense. I do believe if CU gets ahead early, CU would pull the upset but I am strongly leaning toward Oregon 35-21. If CU wins, 42-21. I don't believe in Bo Nix as a QB playing from behind with the pass rush pinning their ears back.

USC: Another major upset alert. I have CU beating USC. Obviously, health is key but USC doesn't match up well against CU. They give up too many big plays, and their overly aggressive defensive style will get them killed against CU. That said, USC will score and score often. CU isn't stopping Celeb but like TCU v. Michigan or USC v. Tulane, you just need a couple of timely stops. CU 49-42.

ASU: This should be a good game. Both teams improved during the portal. I expect Rashada to start. This game might just be a really bad matchup as CU has a mix of things to make this a long day for a true FR QB. I have this as his first bad game. I think he will play well in the others, including against USC who will crush ASU. CU 49-3

Stanford: Another game I expect to be tougher than expected. Still, CU should win this game. 28-7 CU

UCLA: I actually really think UCLA is an excellent team this year. 2nd best to Washington in the PAC. QB really matters so much. I have this as a toss-up. If CU was to win, 35-32. This will be a close game, no matter what. UCLA has enough to keep CU to a level overall.

Oregon State: Styles make fights. Another toss-up for me. Development means so much because injuries could hurt either team. If CU wins, I am expecting 24-21 CU. Expecting a close game. OSU can really run. This could easily go either way.

Arizona: I like Jayden De Laura, the football player. I like his weapons. I like their coach. But they don't have the ability to shoot with CU or stop them. Then again, I don't believe CU will stop them either. 63-56 CU wins. Edge CU. Could be close.

Washington State: This should be tough. In Pullman. Ward v. Sanders. It's all about how the DL plays v. Washington St. OL which struggled greatly last year. If they dominate and WSU can't match CU for points, this could be a long night for Ward. That said, 42-35 CU. Edge CU. Could be close.

Utah: Another team I have beating the Buffs but the Buffs can beat anyone. Just a tough matchup and injuries could play a key role for CU. That said, Utah has to stop CU insane offense. 28-21 Utah but if Utah can't stop CU passing attack, 42-24 CU.

No PAC-12CC or playoff predictions.

Wins: 7 and 2 were upsets (TCU and USC)
Toss-Ups: 3
Losses: 2

Development and health will be key for CU.

I currently have 40 good players on CU. 2 are studs. 8 could join as studs. 2 potential Heisman candidates, and 11 potentially good players like Dylan, and Cormani, for instance.)

Depth is a concern for me.

Bruv, you were absolutely killing it on this board then this. What the hell? Were you doing some long game trolling? I'm optimistic about CU's team this season, but some of this is just delusional.

 

[PhillyBuff]

USC will be aiming to score 60, as it chases the playoffs. 56 - 10.

Is there anyone more annoying than Caleb Williams in NCAA football this year? His behavior in the Utah game and the Tulane game was embarrassing.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Any bets today?

 

[Big Jim]

Is there anyone more annoying than Caleb Williams in NCAA football this year? His behavior in the Utah game and the Tulane game was embarrassing.

I love watching Williams play.

 

[PAHIBuff]

Any bets today?

A very small bet on Ohio at SDSU u49.5 just to kick off the season.