As I said, they don’t have a blank check like the top handful of programs, so they are obviously going to lose out on some guys they are targeting. They will also win some battles as well.
If CU signs a class of say 15 HS kids, I would expect the following:
5*: 1-2
4*: 4-5
3* (with many P4 options): 8-10
If they expand the class and sign 20 guys, I think it’s one extra 4* and four extra 3* types. The avg rating probably in the 90 range, which will still put them 1 or 2 in the Big 12 and top 20 nationally for avg rating.
The quality per recruit is going to be similar to many big programs, but the difference is that they aren’t going to have the quantity of those quality recruits so their margin for error on their signings panning out is small relative to the top programs.
This post is general to the general discussion, I think the enforcement of Non-Nil deals is a huge unknown rendering High School recruiting an unknown.
In theory the House Settlement could equalize NIL somewhat, but the devil is in the regulation/enforcement ("the E-ARM") of the non-NIL deals. For many players it is still show me the $$$. Some schools have/will always have Whales, so if the enforcement lags or is toothless it will just be a about who pays/cheats the best with those non-House NIL deals. For the proposed E-ARM, it will take them time, probably years to upscale it and set precedents. To be successful the E-ARM will have to be a large scale and experienced with learned expertise. Then it is strict how they act and where they set the bar in scrutinizing non-House NIL deals? I suspect the P-4 commissioners and members are not all that interested in strict or punitive enforcement--they may want to keep some wild-west. I sort of draw this conclusion because the "tampering" problem has been mentioned, however anti-tampering type rules/penalties not really discussed. It is inevitable some programs will play the "catch us if you can" game in cheating or non-NIL compensation--Pony Excess ("we have a payroll to meet"), in Florida's programs wasn't one NIL collective a Ponzi scheme and the other (UF) just the Jaden Rashada fraud.
Although CU does not have a Whale, CU is interesting because in this open NIL era our players made any sorts of deal, some with of novel entrepreneurship angles, and I think our in-house media/hype machine helps. Prime helps this with his experience as a player and coach maximizing his own endorsements and relationships with others. IMO, next to the $$$, probably next on a players list are playing time, exposure and NFL opp. Prime is a hype/exposure machine.
Addressing the HS recruiting, during the interim roll out of House NIL and E-ARM enforcement, I still see an active transfer portal and the big $$$ going to experienced transfers. IMO, the portal will not slow down until there are mandatory sit out years for transfers, and it appears doubtful the Courts go for that. Overall, in HS recruiting the attrition rate is pretty high--just so many HS 4*'s in the portal who stay 1-2 seasons, tank, or suffer injuries. IMO, HS recruiting is important for some buzz, but also it is a huge risk in apportioning substantial NIL for Freshman. The very top echelon of players may demand/receive it, but a program cannot massively invest in a blue-chip 4-5* recruit and not have them work out or just transfer after 2 years. Also, for win-now teams or coaches nearing the hot seat, they need experienced players to win now, so they should glean towards the portal.
Until CU is a well established program with 3-5 winnings seasons, a couple of top-10's, a playoff appearance and win, and looked Primed for a run at a NC, I do not believe recruiting lights out at the HS level taking 17-20 players likely. Given House, HS recruits may not be CU's priority until things shake out and we take more steps as a program. However, if the NIL market for upper-tier 3* recruit (flier guys with high ceiling, but unknown) is abnormally low/non-existent, I could see teams back-fill players with negligible NIL with CU recruiting following suit. As we see at QB JUJU is our 5* of the future, but we still had to bring in Salter paying him as a 1 year bridge. Same thing with Texas, Arch Manning had huge upside compared to Ewers, but Sark had to play Ewers to give them the best chance at a NC last year and just fell short.
