And the Big12 is already crumbling...

[CUFan]

I see Texas reluctantly joining some conference when the rest of the Big 12 falls apart. The ideal scenario would be A&M going SEC one year and they fill that spot with TCU. Then the next year Missouri bolts to the Big 10. And they add Rice or SMU. Then the earthquake hits and OU leaves...

If the Big XII falls apart, I think Missouri may be the last to get invited to Big 10, if at all. Big 10 will be looking much more at ND and UT (and I think the Big 10 is a more likely destination for UT than the SEC). Missouri doesn't bring much to the Big 10. The Big 10 already has Illinois covered and by default a significant portion of Missouri covered (TV wise). I think the Big 10 will only invite Missouri if the college football landscape changes and they are forced to add schools (and UT and ND say "no"). The Big 10 would be much better served to invited some of the east coast schools (Syracuse, etc.), UT and ND. Missouri may be left out in the cold and have to go crawling the Little East.

 

[MiamiBuffs]

If the Big XII falls apart, I think Missouri may be the last to get invited to Big 10, if at all. Big 10 will be looking much more at ND and UT (and I think the Big 10 is a more likely destination for UT than the SEC). Missouri doesn't bring much to the Big 10. The Big 10 already has Illinois covered and by default a significant portion of Missouri covered (TV wise). I think the Big 10 will only invite Missouri if the college football landscape changes and they are forced to add schools (and UT and ND say "no"). The Big 10 would be much better served to invited some of the east coast schools (Syracuse, etc.), UT and ND. Missouri may be left out in the cold and have to go crawling the Little East.

UT will go where the money is good for them. The Big 10's revenue sharing formula is supposedly all encompassing and pays out equally ($14mil per member) plus bonuses for TV appearances in basketball and football. This is why Notre Dame and possibly Texas will not join because they will be giving up money (once UT starts their TV channel). Missouri gives the Big 10 more television time in Kansas City and St. Louis. Missouri also has a good basketball program. I would not be overly shocked if MU and KU ended up in a Big 10 featuring 16 teams at some point.

The point of this thread is A&M was promised $20mil per season to stay. How will they deliver that when they Big 10 is only delivering $14mil per team, have one of the highest revenue conferences? How will the other members react to that growing disparity? The conference is doomed.

 

[BlackNGold]

Perzacly. In another 20 years, Las Vegas will be bigger than Detroit. SLC will be bigger than Cleveland. Albuquerque and Kansas City will be about the same size. As the country grows, the population shifts to the South and the West. In the West, there is only going to be one major conference.

And it has no beneficial affect on the Television ratings or on college football. Those people who move in have little (re: none) loyalty to the local college teams. College football fandom seems to be much more parochial than pro sports. People will move to a new area and adopt the local pro teams much more readily than they will the local college team. This is especially true in the west where the fanaticism for college football is less and thus peer pressure is much less.

Arizona State use lead the PAC 10 in Average Attendance in the 1980s. The population is Phoenix has exploded in the last 20 years and tripling since 1980 - but the ASU football attendance has declined over that period of time. CU is in the same boat...population growth in the area has little real impact on the CU support.

 

[sackman]

UT will go where the money is good for them. The Big 10's revenue sharing formula is supposedly all encompassing and pays out equally ($14mil per member) plus bonuses for TV appearances in basketball and football. This is why Notre Dame and possibly Texas will not join because they will be giving up money (once UT starts their TV channel). Missouri gives the Big 10 more television time in Kansas City and St. Louis. Missouri also has a good basketball program. I would not be overly shocked if MU and KU ended up in a Big 10 featuring 16 teams at some point.

The point of this thread is A&M was promised $20mil per season to stay. How will they deliver that when they Big 10 is only delivering $14mil per team, have one of the highest revenue conferences? How will the other members react to that growing disparity? The conference is doomed.

Maybe because the Big 10 is delivering upwards of $22MM, not $14MM?

"according to tax forms the nonprofit conference is required to make public, it generated $217.7 million and paid each school about $18.8 million in 2007, the most recent year for which tax forms are available.
The next year, according to the Sports Business Journal, the new TV network added another $66 million to the pot. That pushed the per-team payout to about $22 million each, a figure officials from several Big Ten schools confirm remains accurate."

From this story:
http://www.cleveland.com/osu/index.ssf/2010/02/big_ten_expansion_likely_will.html

 

[sackman]

And it has no beneficial affect on the Television ratings or on college football. Those people who move in have little (re: none) loyalty to the local college teams. College football fandom seems to be much more parochial than pro sports. People will move to a new area and adopt the local pro teams much more readily than they will the local college team. This is especially true in the west where the fanaticism for college football is less and thus peer pressure is much less.

Arizona State use lead the PAC 10 in Average Attendance in the 1980s. The population is Phoenix has exploded in the last 20 years and tripling since 1980 - but the ASU football attendance has declined over that period of time. CU is in the same boat...population growth in the area has little real impact on the CU support.

Granted. However, more people still means more television sets. More television sets means more cable & satellite subscriptions. That's what drove the Pac to invite CU. It sure as hell wasn't our stellar on-field/court performance over the last 5 years.

 

[boulder77]

Commish Delaney on the Future of the XII Lite

from espn.com:

"He maintained that the two remain friends, but also expressed doubts about the conference's future. Luckily, Delany is a bit outside Beebe's jurisdiction, so he doesn't have to worry about fines.

"I'm very proud of how he represented his conference and how he fought for their survival. And I told him that. I said, 'I don't know if it will all hang together for you or not.' But I have a tremendous amount of respect on how he represented his institutions," Delany said."