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are we going to get kids to sign?
- Thread starter BuffUp
- Start date
Lt.Col.FrankSlade
Well-Known Member
That's valid - to a point.
This isn't the NFL. The players on the team are the players on the team. We can't go out and hire a new team. We have to go out and recruit a new team. Who is responsible for recruiting? The coaches. Who was the DB coach for 4 out of the past 5 years? Greg Brown. Who has been the LB coach for the past 20 years? Brian Cabral. Which two positions on defense seem to be the weakest? LB & DB. Just saying.
At some point, the "we don't have any talent" excuse runs out, because the people responsible for the talent are the current coaches.
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People talk about Luck (and rightfully so). The QB is the most important position on the field and a great QB can elevate teams.
But if you want to know one of the secrets to Stanford's success, take a look at the TE recruiting they have done over the past several seasons. It is pretty impressive and goes a long way in explaining why they are great in a pro-style offense. Just about every player they have signed at that position had multiple BCS offers. They go four deep at TE. Four deep. We have trouble finding one or two.
Unleash Hell
Well-Known Member
And we used to have so many great players at the position.
Another example of a good team that uses TE's a lot is the New England Patriots.
Lt.Col.FrankSlade
Well-Known Member
Is it true that Luck's offer list only included Northwestern, Rice, Purdue, Virginia, Ok State, and Stanford?!!?
According to Rivals, yup.
moett88
Well-Known Member
Braggin right vs. Quality
Ok........wanted to give my perspective on recruiting and share a story that will hopefully keep things moving thru the rest of the year. As I see and have been fighting this battle for awhile.......stars beside names do not tell the whole story. Class rankings are great for bragging right but if you really get deep into things schools are using them as smoke screens for things that they are doing behind the scenes to get those. I see USC comes into discussion alot when it comes to recruiting. But nobody seems to remember that they were BUYING PLAYERS to get where they are. Another class comparison was UCLA, but yet again........what are they doing NOW? One of my favs is current Texas because I am the closest to that situation....... and they are going thru the same thing you guys are........with 5 STAR RECRUITS. I've watched media guy after media guy overlook the 3 receivers you have coming in, yet their numbers by position are just as competitive as any of the top 10 receivers in the state. The top Texas receiver has 783 yrd and 2 TDs so far. His team has won 1 game. This is his senior year. The 3 star receivers you have are at 655, 591, 534 yrds with I think 7, 6, and 5 TDs (sorry other guys its just easier to keep up with receivers but I know you are putting in work as well). One has an undefeated team. So if you need stats to help make you confident that things will change, dig deep. You would be surprised what you find.
Ok........wanted to give my perspective on recruiting and share a story that will hopefully keep things moving thru the rest of the year. As I see and have been fighting this battle for awhile.......stars beside names do not tell the whole story. Class rankings are great for bragging right but if you really get deep into things schools are using them as smoke screens for things that they are doing behind the scenes to get those. I see USC comes into discussion alot when it comes to recruiting. But nobody seems to remember that they were BUYING PLAYERS to get where they are. Another class comparison was UCLA, but yet again........what are they doing NOW? One of my favs is current Texas because I am the closest to that situation....... and they are going thru the same thing you guys are........with 5 STAR RECRUITS. I've watched media guy after media guy overlook the 3 receivers you have coming in, yet their numbers by position are just as competitive as any of the top 10 receivers in the state. The top Texas receiver has 783 yrd and 2 TDs so far. His team has won 1 game. This is his senior year. The 3 star receivers you have are at 655, 591, 534 yrds with I think 7, 6, and 5 TDs (sorry other guys its just easier to keep up with receivers but I know you are putting in work as well). One has an undefeated team. So if you need stats to help make you confident that things will change, dig deep. You would be surprised what you find.
moett88
Well-Known Member
Well said!
Junction
Club Member
Hard to believe West Virginia didn't even offer, considering that's his daddy's alma mater....
moett88
Well-Known Member
Now my story............the son was working with his trainer last night. There were only 2 boys there and they did a 1 and a half hour workout. After workout, the trainer was bringing on a new client and asked us to stay to watch. He gave me his name. While the workout was going on I googled him from my phone. Found out the guy was a local high schooler and went to Texas for college. He was a BEAST in high school! Career yards.........2300+ passing, 694 receiving, 1000+ rushing. Lettered in 3 sports. Just a recruiter's dream. Got to college, rode the bench until he got his shot at QB. Didn't look like things worked out and asked to be moved to WR. Not sure if he struggled cause I can't find too many stats on him. Was drafted in the 6th round this past year and cut during training. Just got picked up for an arena team. It's truly funny how things circle around...........cause after 30 mins he was seriously tired. Hands on head and weezing. But was most interesting is his entourage that came with him. His agent came 20 min early to watch practice and bring his cleats. 3 other guys came later.........to film and hang out I guess. And what they ended up doing is throwing the football to the son.
I had a convo with my trainer and this guy (he was nice by the way). We talked recruiting and who might be circling back trying to get into the picture. I went toe to toe for about 30 mins........and what was funny to me is how easy they were still caught up with the school NAME in the beginning but once I stated my case and the FACTS they both said yeah, probably should've done the same thing........ don't always take everything at face value because times are tough. Most of the schools you SWEAR you want to be like because they are winning have cheated to get there.........and from some of the stories i've heard........are still cheating. They have lied to kids and parents, paid off any and everybody to keep their 7 figure jobs and are only sorry when they get caught. Just don't believe the hype and believe that a change is coming. I call it "WHEN THE TSUNAMI HITS". I drove my family crazy last year because I am a Celts fan and they are Lakers fans.........they hated me by the end of the season....but they were believers at least until this season starts. LOL!
I had a convo with my trainer and this guy (he was nice by the way). We talked recruiting and who might be circling back trying to get into the picture. I went toe to toe for about 30 mins........and what was funny to me is how easy they were still caught up with the school NAME in the beginning but once I stated my case and the FACTS they both said yeah, probably should've done the same thing........ don't always take everything at face value because times are tough. Most of the schools you SWEAR you want to be like because they are winning have cheated to get there.........and from some of the stories i've heard........are still cheating. They have lied to kids and parents, paid off any and everybody to keep their 7 figure jobs and are only sorry when they get caught. Just don't believe the hype and believe that a change is coming. I call it "WHEN THE TSUNAMI HITS". I drove my family crazy last year because I am a Celts fan and they are Lakers fans.........they hated me by the end of the season....but they were believers at least until this season starts. LOL!
OUBuff
American
Like Wally, I hate the direction this thread took. I appreciate moett88 making the effort to reengage this frustrated fan base. I for one have very much appreciated the insight offered by Moett88 and Ann Henry. I for one and I know that most if not all of the regular contributors here appreciate their family's love for the University of Colorado. I am thrilled their sons and others think enough of the Buffs to want to be a part of the resurgence. I look forward to seeing their sons be leaders in our return.
This internet thing isn't quite as anonymous as you think, we should all remember that we have Buff family here and they should be made to feel welcome, because they are!
SOULDER TO SHOULDER!!! Remember?
This internet thing isn't quite as anonymous as you think, we should all remember that we have Buff family here and they should be made to feel welcome, because they are!
SOULDER TO SHOULDER!!! Remember?
BuffUp, just so you know, kids are a lot less likely to sign if you drive their parents away. Mo' thanks for being the voice of reason, as usual.
Yep, we must get four and five star guys to be any good. Guys like Katoa, Givens, Kasa, Major, etc. We need to, at least for the first couple of years, trust the staff's ability to evaluate talent. My one big concern so far is losing the top guys from Colorado. Mac made it a priority and, right off the bat, he closed the borders. But, like good old John Regal used to say, "Be happy with the guys you got and don't worry about the ones you didn't get." He also believed that only about 1 in 3 of the four/five star guys end up becoming special and the meat of the program are the rest of the recruits.
I like that we are getting back into Texas. It seemed like Hawkins was lucky to get one kid out of the state. Also, Ebree and EB need to reestablish relationships with kids and with programs. Its pretty tough to come in and not get in on kids until the end of their junior year and into their senior year. The top recruits had already developed relationships and, in many cases, whittled their list down to a top 5. Pretty hard to turn those guys. The encouraging thing to me, as someone who does not follow recruiting, is that it seems like those kids are at least giving us a look. That is the one other thing Regal said about Mac's early recruiting years: The first thing you have to do is get into the star's homes. Once you do that, then you can start to sign some of 'em.
I like that we are getting back into Texas. It seemed like Hawkins was lucky to get one kid out of the state. Also, Ebree and EB need to reestablish relationships with kids and with programs. Its pretty tough to come in and not get in on kids until the end of their junior year and into their senior year. The top recruits had already developed relationships and, in many cases, whittled their list down to a top 5. Pretty hard to turn those guys. The encouraging thing to me, as someone who does not follow recruiting, is that it seems like those kids are at least giving us a look. That is the one other thing Regal said about Mac's early recruiting years: The first thing you have to do is get into the star's homes. Once you do that, then you can start to sign some of 'em.
What's the quote again? Something like "it's not the players you don't get that hurts you, it's the players you do get that don't contribute that hurt you." The star system has a ton of flaws, but think of it as sort of a betting book. If a high school player gets 5 stars, there's probably a 90% chance* that he'll be a contributor, and a 10% chance that he'll be a bust. For a 4 star, it's probably around 80/20, and 3 stars are probably somewhere between 60/40 and 50/50.
If you have a staff that consistently pulls in 4 and 5 star recruits, but the ones they get belong to the 10 and 20 per cent that are busts (*cough* UCLA *cough*), things don't turn out so well. On the other hand, if you are actually pretty good at talent evaluation, you can build a very good team out of three star recruits - but only if nearly every one of them is in the 60% group.
The Hawkins staff were magicians in that, with a few notable exceptions, they managed to always find the 10/20/40 players from each star level. Embree and co aren't going to be able to pull in a bunch of 4-5 star players right now. Let me rephrase that, not even god himself could recruit a bunch of 4-5 star players to Colorado right now. But, if Embree can make sure that almost every single one of his 3 star recruits are in the 60% that can and will contribute, he will get the program turned around.
It will however take a few years.
*these percentages are SCWAGs - Scientifically Calculated Wild Ass Guesses.
If you have a staff that consistently pulls in 4 and 5 star recruits, but the ones they get belong to the 10 and 20 per cent that are busts (*cough* UCLA *cough*), things don't turn out so well. On the other hand, if you are actually pretty good at talent evaluation, you can build a very good team out of three star recruits - but only if nearly every one of them is in the 60% group.
The Hawkins staff were magicians in that, with a few notable exceptions, they managed to always find the 10/20/40 players from each star level. Embree and co aren't going to be able to pull in a bunch of 4-5 star players right now. Let me rephrase that, not even god himself could recruit a bunch of 4-5 star players to Colorado right now. But, if Embree can make sure that almost every single one of his 3 star recruits are in the 60% that can and will contribute, he will get the program turned around.
It will however take a few years.
*these percentages are SCWAGs - Scientifically Calculated Wild Ass Guesses.
Recruiting to Colorado is not horrendously difficult. Guys like Embree and EB with solid recruiting chops will be able to recruit decently to at least upgrade the talent at this point. Give them just a smidge of good momentum and they will pull serious recruits. Just look at Danny boy after going 2-10 and then 6-7. Pulled in the 15th ranked class in the country.
Walter White
Member
EB and JE need help from the media. CU needs to put the full press on PR. It's ridiculous how little CU buzz is here in the Denver metro, even when CU is good.
Media buzz and establishing relationships with high school coaches in Colorado.
Media buzz and establishing relationships with high school coaches in Colorado.
I used to think good recruits would not want to come here after Fairbanks ruined the program. We all know things did eventually change for the better.
buffs04
Well-Known Member
Like clockwork: CU fails to recruit highly-rated prospects => ratings mean nothing. Strangely enough, I didn't hear much of this sentiment early in the DS/Major/Katoa class.
Yes, many of our 4*/5* players of recent years haven't panned out. Guess what? Small sample size. This is obvious to anyone possessing even a trivial knowledge of statistics. Any actual analysis of recruiting rankings suggests that 4*/5* players are much more likely to be impact players than 2*/3* players. As far as some of you are concerned though, the cases of Rodney Stewart and Darrell Scott represent sufficient evidence for the dismissal of thousands and thousands of observations worth of data.
What the "ratings don't matter at all" crowd is doing is distorting facts and cherry-picking anecdotes to support their particular claim because that claim is the most favorable to CU football right now. In the future, if CU were to start pulling in highly-rated classes, it is a near-certainty that they will take precisely the opposite position.
This argument has been done to death on this board -- and elsewhere -- and those that are far more knowledgeable with respect to recruiting than myself continually reach the same conclusion: highly-rated players are more likely to be good players. Counterexamples change nothing about the validity of that assertion.
Yes, many of our 4*/5* players of recent years haven't panned out. Guess what? Small sample size. This is obvious to anyone possessing even a trivial knowledge of statistics. Any actual analysis of recruiting rankings suggests that 4*/5* players are much more likely to be impact players than 2*/3* players. As far as some of you are concerned though, the cases of Rodney Stewart and Darrell Scott represent sufficient evidence for the dismissal of thousands and thousands of observations worth of data.
What the "ratings don't matter at all" crowd is doing is distorting facts and cherry-picking anecdotes to support their particular claim because that claim is the most favorable to CU football right now. In the future, if CU were to start pulling in highly-rated classes, it is a near-certainty that they will take precisely the opposite position.
This argument has been done to death on this board -- and elsewhere -- and those that are far more knowledgeable with respect to recruiting than myself continually reach the same conclusion: highly-rated players are more likely to be good players. Counterexamples change nothing about the validity of that assertion.
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moett88
Well-Known Member
I want to come with a different perspective based upon what is in the corral now. If any of these 2*/3* players get bumped to 4*/5* players, how does that change the argument? Then what does/or does not that say about CU? And if they do not........what would be your final answer for the class of 2012?
There is a correlation between star rating and success of a player. However, there isn't causation.
moett88
Well-Known Member
Ok because I want to learn... now what does the downgrade of Shane's rating explain? Also with Connor Wood?
The Guest
Guest
I think Moett's point is a good one.
This staff is built for recruiting. Not only do they seem to develop solid relationships with recruits, but there is evidence that they have a superior eye for talent.
In another thread, it was discussed that CU provides the first offer more most of these young men. Additionally, those players who we offered that appeared to be in the middle of the pack with recruiting services seem to be having outstanding senior seasons.
So this is how a bump in stars (or offers from other big name schools) changes the argument: It shows that when it comes to evaluating talent we can trust our coaches more than the recruiting services. They seem to have a knack for the evaluation part, so maybe--in the case of this staff at least--we can disregard the stars. For other staffs they may be more relevant, but I trust the guys we have in place right now.
This staff is built for recruiting. Not only do they seem to develop solid relationships with recruits, but there is evidence that they have a superior eye for talent.
In another thread, it was discussed that CU provides the first offer more most of these young men. Additionally, those players who we offered that appeared to be in the middle of the pack with recruiting services seem to be having outstanding senior seasons.
So this is how a bump in stars (or offers from other big name schools) changes the argument: It shows that when it comes to evaluating talent we can trust our coaches more than the recruiting services. They seem to have a knack for the evaluation part, so maybe--in the case of this staff at least--we can disregard the stars. For other staffs they may be more relevant, but I trust the guys we have in place right now.
Shane is a damn good QB, but it is fair to rate him as just a high 3 star. He's not perfect, and not the greatest athlete.
Stars are more a reflection of some combination of interest, stats, and athletic ability. There are outliers, but that combination is usually key.
But as we have learned, being a good football player is abou tmore than how many coaches liked you in high school, what your stats were, or even your athletic ability. Those are all good signs, but without the right coaching/support/mentality, even the most highly rated players can fail.
So getting highly rated players increases your odds of getting a successful college player, but is no guarantee. Fighting the system will just make you insane. Pick the right situation for your kid and he will have a great chance of success. When dealing with humanity, nothing is guaranteed, and all you can do is put yourself in the right situation and give yourself the best odds.
Stars are more a reflection of some combination of interest, stats, and athletic ability. There are outliers, but that combination is usually key.
But as we have learned, being a good football player is abou tmore than how many coaches liked you in high school, what your stats were, or even your athletic ability. Those are all good signs, but without the right coaching/support/mentality, even the most highly rated players can fail.
So getting highly rated players increases your odds of getting a successful college player, but is no guarantee. Fighting the system will just make you insane. Pick the right situation for your kid and he will have a great chance of success. When dealing with humanity, nothing is guaranteed, and all you can do is put yourself in the right situation and give yourself the best odds.
While I think the staff certainly knows talent, it is also fair to say that this staff and recruiting services often agree on prospects. Many of the offers have gone out to players that both recruiting services and other teams agree are very good players. Sometimes the star ratings and what the coaches see do not line up, but I still think that more than not, a lot of the players we really want also happen to be highly rated.
The issue that arose during the Hawkins years was taking on so many guys that you had to "trust the staff" on. That works with 5-7 kids a year, not so much with 15 kids a year. I think Nik says it best when the star rankings are a nice way for fans to gauge how well the team is doing on the recruiting trail, but you have to dig deeper than that at times if you want to get the whole story. I do not think it should surprise anyone that we seem to lack talent in a lot of areas when you realize we beat out very few (if any) BCS programs for most of the guys on our roster.