Blue Chip Rating = Contender, but what's the Transfer Portal impact?

[Buffnik]

The data looked at the national champions going back to 2011. It only looks at initial scholarship recruits (prep & JC) and looks at what percentage of its LOIs were allocated to 4* and 5* players.

Every champion has been over 50%. 10/12 have been over 60% (exceptions were 2016 Clemson & 2013 Florida State). Based on that, the article said that 16 teams were actual contenders to win the natty this year, with 12 above the 60% threshold. FWIW, Alabama set a record in 2023 at 90% - UT is at 70%, UM's at 54% and UW is somewhere in the 40s.

What's interesting is the impact of transfer talent into these programs. Looking at 2023's Top 16, they all had a slight talent drain from the portal (UM was +1% but everyone else was negative except UGA which didn't take anyone). So the transfers are slightly reducing the percentage of their guys who are blue chippers, but it's a small change and hasn't impacted the schools that were already powers.

But what about the schools that weren't already loaded?

Through three years of heavy transfer portal activity, national titles are not being won through the portal. Georgia did not take a single scholarship transfer last season. Teams loading up on transfers are frequently coaches looking for a jumpstart to a new tenure, or, on the other end, looking for a fix to save their jobs.

I think the article is correct. Elites are going to focus on prep unless they need to plug a hole.

That's where CU needs to get to - signing 60%+ blue chip classes while taking very few transfers. That's the elite level. We're currently at the "jumpstart to a new tenure" level with a chance that a great QB and enough NFL talent on the roster to put together a run gels & gets on a roll.

One caveat, though, is that Coach Prime might just be the outlier who can recruit preps at an elite level while still taking a higher number of transfers because of the talent he can attract from the portal. I'm totally nerding out on this one and think it will be a great topic down the road as a case study in being a disruptor and when/whether to shift to greater conformity.

Blue-Chip Ratio 2023: The 16 teams who can actually win a national title

How much talent does it take to win the national championship in college football? And which of the teams in 2023 are most set to deliver on that promise? Unveiling the 2023 Blue-Chip Ratio.

247sports.com

 

[96 Buff]

**** you.

 

[Tatonka Thunder]

Good, interesting stuff Nik. Thanks for sharing. It occurred to me that the improvement to our QB room via the portal has been significant. Not that S2 is in any danger of not playing every possible snap if healthy, but the uptick in talent and experience is going to pay some good dividends this coming year. Having experienced, capable depth in practice every day at that position is huge. From knowing good check downs at the line of scrimmage to better throws and coaching to the receivers, etc, in practice, this just helps everyone. Even the D2 and D3 going against a more seasoned, more confident, more capable QB ‘s everyday in practice through the Spring and onto next Fall is going to make them better.

 

[Buffnik]

Good, interesting stuff Nik. Thanks for sharing. It occurred to me that the improvement to our QB room via the portal has been significant. Not that S2 is in any danger of not playing every possible snap if healthy, but the uptick in talent and experience is going to pay some good dividends this coming year. Having experienced, capable depth in practice every day at that position is huge. From knowing good check downs at the line of scrimmage to better throws and coaching to the receivers, etc, in practice, this just helps everyone. Even the D2 and D3 going against a more seasoned, more confident, more capable QB ‘s everyday in practice through the Spring and onto next Fall is going to make them better.

Plus, #2 was also from the transfer portal. It's been a complete rebuild, mostly via the portal, down to the depth level, which you're bringing up. This is what's unprecedented. This wasn't about plug & play transfers to fill some holes. This was about creating a fully capable 2- to 3-deep via the portal at every position while taking select preps who were evaluated as having likelihood of shooting up a good depth chart. We may never again see anything like this.

 

[Agent Dave Kujan]

The data looked at the national champions going back to 2011. It only looks at initial scholarship recruits (prep & JC) and looks at what percentage of its LOIs were allocated to 4* and 5* players.

Every champion has been over 50%. 10/12 have been over 60% (exceptions were 2016 Clemson & 2013 Florida State). Based on that, the article said that 16 teams were actual contenders to win the natty this year, with 12 above the 60% threshold. FWIW, Alabama set a record in 2023 at 90% - UT is at 70%, UM's at 54% and UW is somewhere in the 40s.

What's interesting is the impact of transfer talent into these programs. Looking at 2023's Top 16, they all had a slight talent drain from the portal (UM was +1% but everyone else was negative except UGA which didn't take anyone). So the transfers are slightly reducing the percentage of their guys who are blue chippers, but it's a small change and hasn't impacted the schools that were already powers.

But what about the schools that weren't already loaded?

Through three years of heavy transfer portal activity, national titles are not being won through the portal. Georgia did not take a single scholarship transfer last season. Teams loading up on transfers are frequently coaches looking for a jumpstart to a new tenure, or, on the other end, looking for a fix to save their jobs.

I think the article is correct. Elites are going to focus on prep unless they need to plug a hole.

That's where CU needs to get to - signing 60%+ blue chip classes while taking very few transfers. That's the elite level. We're currently at the "jumpstart to a new tenure" level with a chance that a great QB and enough NFL talent on the roster to put together a run gels & gets on a roll.

One caveat, though, is that Coach Prime might just be the outlier who can recruit preps at an elite level while still taking a higher number of transfers because of the talent he can attract from the portal. I'm totally nerding out on this one and think it will be a great topic down the road as a case study in being a disruptor and when/whether to shift to greater conformity.

Blue-Chip Ratio 2023: The 16 teams who can actually win a national title

How much talent does it take to win the national championship in college football? And which of the teams in 2023 are most set to deliver on that promise? Unveiling the 2023 Blue-Chip Ratio.

247sports.com

I think it will be interesting to see if going forward, Ole Miss can compete with Alabama or Georgia in SEC with a team that has adopted a transfer heavy strategy.

They are the test case.

I think that the article has some merit but it is still too early to tell if you can build a contender with the portal. IMHO.

 

[Buffnik]

I think it will be interesting to see if going forward, Ole Miss can compete with Alabama or Georgia in SEC with a team that has adopted a transfer heavy strategy.

They are the test case.

I think that the article has some merit but it is still too early to tell IMHO.

Great example. 21 preps with 11 blue chips. Then 10 transfers with 5 blue chips. I agree that this is the one to watch and looks like the standard for Phase 2.

 

[Agent Dave Kujan]

Great example. 21 preps with 11 blue chips. Then 10 transfers with 5 blue chips. I agree that this is the one to watch and looks like the standard for Phase 2.

I was thinking about Washington too. It seems they had a bunch of incoming transfers the last couple of years. They might upend the theory this year.

We will see

 

[FLounda]

Does this take into account the outlier that is UCF in 2017?

 

[Buffnik]

Does this take into account the outlier that is UCF in 2017?

He does talk about the Cincinnati team that made the playoff along with TCU. He said that Cincy actually had 9 players drafted, so that was a very talented team but lost in Rd1. TCU he said proves that having enough playmakers to go with a QB who makes things happen can pull an upset but 2 in a row against this level of competition has, so far, taken a majority blue chip roster.

 

[Liver]

sample size is too small so far. no one has tried what CP has tried at this magnitude.

yeah, uga and bama and michigan and ohio state recruit elite high schoolers and have a pipeline.

maybe a better program to contrast against is oregon or washington. they were very selective with transfers and each upgraded in a big way.

we will know more about all this after a couple more seasons.

 

[GRM]

The data looked at the national champions going back to 2011. It only looks at initial scholarship recruits (prep & JC) and looks at what percentage of its LOIs were allocated to 4* and 5* players.

Every champion has been over 50%. 10/12 have been over 60% (exceptions were 2016 Clemson & 2013 Florida State). Based on that, the article said that 16 teams were actual contenders to win the natty this year, with 12 above the 60% threshold. FWIW, Alabama set a record in 2023 at 90% - UT is at 70%, UM's at 54% and UW is somewhere in the 40s.

I think the article is correct. Elites are going to focus on prep unless they need to plug a hole.

That's where CU needs to get to - signing 60%+ blue chip classes while taking very few transfers. That's the elite level. We're currently at the "jumpstart to a new tenure" level with a chance that a great QB and enough NFL talent on the roster to put together a run gels & gets on a roll.

One caveat, though, is that Coach Prime might just be the outlier who can recruit preps at an elite level while still taking a higher number of transfers because of the talent he can attract from the portal.

Blue-Chip Ratio 2023: The 16 teams who can actually win a national title

How much talent does it take to win the national championship in college football? And which of the teams in 2023 are most set to deliver on that promise? Unveiling the 2023 Blue-Chip Ratio.

247sports.com

I think it will be interesting to see if going forward, Ole Miss can compete with Alabama or Georgia in SEC with a team that has adopted a transfer heavy strategy.
They are the test case.

I agree that Ole Miss is the test case. However, Florida State just missed out on a CFP berth: had they made it with Travis healthy, they would be starting 13 transfers, 7 more in 2-deep--with perhaps 2 more starting, since 3 transfers declared for the NFL draft.

For the teams that BuffNik mentioned, they gain that experience relying on HS recruiting, which they do exceptionally well year after year. His post and the article are facts, so until proven otherwise, they appear correct. However, this year they are more plug-in portal guys as Nik indicated in the CFP than I have seen in the past:

Michigan starting 5 (3 on Oline +1TE--thank you Stanford), 3 more in 2-deep;
Bama starting 5;
Wash has 4, but 1 is Penix their best player; 6 more in 2-deep. They are somewhat of an anomaly, since they are a Jr/Sr laden team, and I think many Jr/Srs beat out the portal guys for starting positions;
Texas has 4 starters incl. QB, P, and dynamic KR;

GA only started 2 transfers, but they won like 28 in a row--they are the outlier: ff you are winning it all with the guys you HS recruit, why do anything different? GA and Florida State were playoff worthy, but it was a weird year and they only take 4. Clemson has avoided the transfer portal and are sort of at a crossroads.

USC may be a test case in a different direction. They have almost always recruited HS well, and were transfer portal darlings in Riley's 1st year. This year they did okay (for them) HS recruiting #18 (19 signed + 1 more committed). Only recently, did they become active in the portal signing 2 UCLA 4* D guys yesterday. However, their roster been decimated by the transfer portal (17 guys--3, maybe 4 5*, and many 4*), graduation (14--in two deep) and NFL declarations (3). Many of their fans say it is good attrition, "they were bums.". Did Riley and staff really miss on that many blue-chip HS recruits? Is it Donte' taking players? They still have like 10# schollies to fill, then maybe more after Spring?

As it sits now, in overall recruiting USC#20, and CU #21, however we do not have all that many remaining spots to fill. We will end up with less quantity, but maybe more quality (right now CU: 89.5, USC 90.4), unless USC continues to sign blue chips out of the already picked-over portal, CU may overtake in quality. Roster wise for SC, I have no idea how they rate the roster losses. I think they will be like CU last season with a ton of necomers (maybe 40-45ish, depending on further attrition) playing together for the 1st time.

 

[Medford M.]

So what is CU's % up to with high school and/or transfer ratings taken into account.

For example...if we counted Okunlola on his transfer rating and Cordale Russell on his prep rating?

 

[Highlander]

So what is CU's % up to with high school and/or transfer ratings taken into account.

For example...if we counted Okunlola on his transfer rating and Cordale Russell on his prep rating?

Overall composite rating for CU on 247 is 89.63 and 21st combined recruiting class in the country.

No sub required:

Colorado 2024 Football Commits

Colorado

247sports.com

 

[Medford M.]

Overall composite rating for CU on 247 is 89.63 and 21st combined recruiting class in the country.

No sub required:

Colorado 2024 Football Commits

Colorado

247sports.com

I was talking about the entirety of the roster for '24

 

[GRM]

I was talking about the entirety of the roster for '24

I would say CU's roster for 2024 pretty much looks like all Div 1, P65 players w/ some real talent. Bigger, stronger, faster and more experienced than CU teams since maybe 2001. They are deeper going into 2024. Does that mean 8-10 wins, I don't know--we have to see. The roster is put together only over 2 seasons.

College football overall is just so much different than in 2001. You have a ton of guys for lower divisions/conferences transferring up. Also, you have guys from P65 teams, even Blue-bloods not getting the playing time or exposure (NIL?) and transferring laterally or maybe down for a 2nd/final go. Personally, over the last 3-4 seasons when I watch conference championship weekend with the games next to each other, or back to back, I think the SEC is a certainly a step above, except for the loaded Clemson teams. The CFP history bears that out to a large degree.

Today, I read an article explaining that for teams playing on NYD or thereafter, their players have 5 additional days to enter the transfer portal. I'll be interested to see what movement is there. I think we have 5-6 schollies left, as of now. Plus, recruiting and attrition is not complete until after Spring with the 2nd transfer portal. It never ends now.

 

[Buffnik]

I was talking about the entirety of the roster for '24

Makes sense to do the math for fall. I don't know if we had any players left who were 4s when signed (HS & JC rating) with what Coach Prime inherited. I'm going to guess that our roster will be over 30% in year 2.