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Bubble Watch - Saturday 3/12

Buffnik said:
Pretty much everyone had them among the first 4 out before the night started. UNLV taking over 3rd place in the conference standings and CSU losing can't really be called a good night.

What are your thoughts on the ACC? Is FSU still a tourney lock after getting crushed by Maryland tonight? Is there anyone else among BC, MD, Clem, Miami, VaTech you think is tourney worthy (or likely to turn it on and get the invite)?

Edit: P.S. I think that North Carolina has the pieces to surprise people with a deep tourney run this year.
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ACC sucks this year again, but that's compared to where they have been previously. VaTech's game on Sat vs Duke is HUGE for them - they win and I think they're in. BC got worked by Miami, so that really hurts them. I think ACC gets in Duke, UNC (who I don't think are going to make any noise, but I'm biased...they're a year away from becoming real good again), FSU (yes, I think they're in, MD is a good team), VaTech, and either Clemson or MD (perhaps both, but I think only one). I think Clemson is left out, because they suck...and their OOC sucked...and they suck. It is the ACC though, and the tourney committee is biased...they'll probably give the ACC six bids even though they only deserve five this year.
 
The Big 12 will get at least 6 teams in, including the Glorious Golden Buffaloes who will win out, and have a good showing in the b12 tourney
 
dyemeduke said:
ACC sucks this year again, but that's compared to where they have been previously. VaTech's game on Sat vs Duke is HUGE for them - they win and I think they're in. BC got worked by Miami, so that really hurts them. I think ACC gets in Duke, UNC (who I don't think are going to make any noise, but I'm biased...they're a year away from becoming real good again), FSU (yes, I think they're in, MD is a good team), VaTech, and either Clemson or MD (perhaps both, but I think only one). I think Clemson is left out, because they suck...and their OOC sucked...and they suck. It is the ACC though, and the tourney committee is biased...they'll probably give the ACC six bids even though they only deserve five this year.
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If the ACC gets 6 teams in that would be a joke. And if they do get 6 bids then the committee better not ever speak the words "We don't pick at-large teams based on conference affiliation" again. FSU is in as you said, and after that you have Clemson, VT, MD, and you forgot about BC. They're gonna be a tough call because they will likely end up with a losing conference record but they're SOS will be hard to ignore. Duke is obviously the only elite team in this conference and UNC only has as good a record as they do because the conference is so down this year. I think they're a 1-win team in the tournament. I'm just surprised at how mediocre the ACC is right now. And Sidney Lowe has to be done after this year, it's time to make the tough decision and let him go.

MWC: UNLV is all but in after winning last night and CSU still has a good shot, but I see this as a 4-bid league at best. UNM would have to win the MWC tourney at this point.
 
we needed not to lose to SF on the road and beating A&M when we had them on the ropes would have been key....i still cant talk about baylor.
 
UtterBuffLuv said:
The Big 12 will get at least 6 teams in, including the Glorious Golden Buffaloes who will win out, and have a good showing in the b12 tourney
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smoked.jpg
 
Junction said:
At this point Snow has the best idea, though. We're not getting an at-large bid barring a miracle. Let's just go kick some ass and play our way into the tourney...
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If we can win these last 3 and get 1 win in the Big 12 tourney we'd be right in the thick of the bubble talk. Obviously the Texas game is the major hurdle but it is at home and after that we have 2 games that we have a very good chance of winning. Then our first tourney game would likely be against TT or ISU.

After the Texas game our direction will be clear - win and we're still hanging on for an at-large berth, lose and our only hope is to win the conference tournament.
 
I just checked our schedule on realtimeRPI we played 7 schools with RPI's of 290 or higher.
 
absinthe said:
I just checked our schedule on realtimeRPI we played 7 schools with RPI's of 290 or higher.
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What nik said is right on the money, that if he had played someone like DU and Wyoming instead of MD-ES and Alcorn State our SOS wouldn't be so terrible and therefore our RPI would be better.
 
If CU can get a strong finish down the stretch, including a win against TX, they're RPI would likely finish the regular season in the mid to upper 70's. CU can get to 8-8 (19-12), finishing likely 6th in the conference. Likely!!
They would then play either Tech or OU in KC their first game ... with a win there, getting to 20, they'll be on the bubble for sure.

The problem is that CU would unfortunately be on the bubble with more notable & popular major conference schools such as Maryland, Clemson, Marquette, Illinois, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Michigan State. Honestly, if you're an outside source looking in and you have say 4 schools to pick, who is it least likely to be? :sad1:

The A&M game is really haunting CU right now in many-many ways, as are some of the other bone-headed losses. Every little detail counts. You really see that when you're this close.
 
coereg said:
If CU can get a strong finish down the stretch, including a win against TX, they're RPI would likely finish the regular season in the mid to upper 70's. CU can get to 8-8 (19-12), finishing likely 6th in the conference. Likely!!
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CU is 6-7 (17-11) right now. If they finish with 3 wins they'll be 9-7, 20-11. Just thought I'd point that out, because...

coereg said:
Every little detail counts.
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:smile2:
 
I agree though. CU can win their last 3 games and finish 9-7 (19-11 ... keep in mind the W. New Mexico game won't count). Finishing at 9-7, with a win in the conference tournament to get 20 wins, with an RPI in the lower to mid 70's if not lower, would plant them firmly on the bubble and in position. However, if they lose one down the stretch, as I've predicted (probably @ ISU, I hate to say it) it hurts their chances big time.

It's time to suck it up and get it done. Time to see what Burks and Higgins can really do with their backs in the wall.
 
The WNM game absolutely counts. It counts toward the overall record and they count it in the Pomeroy. It's only in RPI and Sagarin, which only look at D1 wins, where it doesn't count.

Let's not pretend that RPI is the be-all and end-all of NCAA tourney selection. Some of it comes down to the selection committee wanting to know whether your team is capable of winning games. With victories over Missouri, Kansas State (2) and -if it happens- Texas, then CU's resume looks great compared to a lot of programs that have higher RPIs but didn't beat anyone.
 
Buffnik said:
The WNM game absolutely counts. It counts toward the overall record and they count it in the Pomeroy. It's only in RPI and Sagarin, which only look at D1 wins, where it doesn't count.

Let's not pretend that RPI is the be-all and end-all of NCAA tourney selection. Some of it comes down to the selection committee wanting to know whether your team is capable of winning games. With victories over Missouri, Kansas State (2) and -if it happens- Texas, then CU's resume looks great compared to a lot of programs that have higher RPIs but didn't beat anyone.
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This is why I keep making the posts bitching about some of the faults with RPI. ESPiN and other media outlets tend to beat it to death, but I don't think the selection committee is as obsessed with it. And as I keep pointing out, it puts a very heavy emphasis on the ranking of the teams played OOC. But when you look at teams 200+ in the RPI winning something like 2% of games against top 50 teams, when it comes right down to it there really isn't as much difference between a win against a team ranked in the low 200s and one ranked in the mid-300s as their formula might suggest. For most tourney candidate teams, all those games should be wins anyway.
 
CU needs to beat Nebraska and Iowa State....lose one of those and there are no NCAA bids (beat both and lose to Texas puts us at 19-12)

Best possible Big XII Tournament scenario....1st round versus Oklahoma. The players would be a lot more focused on not losing to that team again. We beat Oklahoma to improve to 20-12.

Play Texas A&M in Quarterfinals....finish the job this time and improve to 21-12.

Than Tad Boyle gets his third shot at Kansas. We probably lose that game but end up 21-13 with wins over Kansas State twice, Texas A&M and have a chance to get into the tournament...probably in one of those play in games on Tuesday.
 
It's true that the RPI isn't the end-all for picking the at-large teams, it's just one of the many factors the committee takes into account. I'm sure it becomes more of a factor when they're comparing teams who are .500 or just over in a major conference and have 16-20 wins. But it seems like what they look at more than anything is how many wins you have against the top 40 or 50, and we're in decent shape in that area.

Having said all this, we won't be in consideration without beating Texas.
 
rpi doesn't get you in the tournament, but it can keep you out. the statistical evidence over the years shows it's a fairly reliable measure. rpi over 50, you are in trouble or have to be a Big East team (getting a lot of media love and a ton of very vocal benefit of the doubt). i remember one of the early Gillespie years at ATM and the talking heads were going on and on about how Syracuse didn't have the wins because the BE was SO SO tough but they, gash darnit, they belonged and ATM, their mates on the bubble, hadn't played anyone (partly true OOC)....but on and on they went about ATM's schedule. turns out in all the rpi.coms of the world, ATM had TOUGHER SOS than Syracuse and it really wasn't close. the Big East is deep and good, but a lot of times perception is totally out of wack. it's like the Big Ten in football. BIg Ten fans will act like a road trip to Purdue is a really tough game and MIssouri sucks....but Purdue has sucked for many years and MU has been a legit top 15 program for the same time frame.

i think the Big XII gets 5. Baylor may have screwed the pooch losing at home to Tech. somehow, KSU has turned into a "feel good" story despite player suspensions and attrition and Martin's batsh#t crazy vibe....they are probably in. and a solid rpi.
 
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RedDirtBuff said:
We're gonna end his love affair with the nubbies.
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that is a must win, to me. at home, crush their NCAA hopes. end the series.

if we beat UT, great. ISU is a tossup in Ames....they've lost at home, we've struggled on the road. but, we must beat NU at the Foam Dome. they remain a bad matchup for us, but they suck in an existential way. that's Nebraska.
 
I am worried Almeida might die on the court here, and if he doesn't CU is doing something wrong.
 
Florida beating Georgis helps the cause even though it slightly dings our RPI.
 
Marquette just won at UConn. They just solidified their case quite a bit.
 
Saw Longwood won tonight on the crawler. Yeah RPI!

Indiana has been in a free fall, and Oregon State is pretty bad. Looked up Alcorn State and they've won 3 games all year.

Agree that the Marquette win hurts
 
West Virginia lost. We'd need an epic collapse there given their RPI, but we need to see the Big East down to 10 bids and I'd rather root against Huggins than Marquette.

St. Mary's is playing Gonzaga right now. A loss by the Zags would really help us.
 
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