CFP Race 2024

[Robert Sorell]

I tried to set an objective standard to pick P4 teams with a clear path to the CFP and came up with 2 or less losses as the threshold. Coincidentally that worked out the same as being ranked in the AP top 25.

Here's the teams ordered by AP Rank with their remaining schedule. Mizzou an Illinois feel like extraneous inclusions, but if they do handle their remaining schedules which is a very real possibility I don't think they'd need a ton of chaos to at least be in the bubble discussion for the last couple of at-large bids.

Conference	Team	AP Rank	W	L	Con W	Con L	11/2	11/9	11/16	11/23	11/30
B1G	Oregon	1	8	0	5	0	at Michigan	Maryland	at Wisconsin	BYE	Washington
SEC	Georgia	2	6	1	4	1	Florida	at Ole Miss	Tennessee	UMass	GaTech
B1G	Penn State	3	7	0	4	0	Ohio State	Washington	at Purdue	at Minnesota	Maryland
B1G	Ohio State	4	6	1	3	1	at Penn State	Purdue	at N'Western	Indiana	Michigan
ACC	Miami	5	8	0	4	0	Duke	at GaTech	BYE	Wake	at Cuse
SEC	Texas	6	6	1	3	1	BYE	Florida	at Arkansas	Kentucky	at Texas A&M
SEC	Tennessee	7	6	1	3	1	Kentucky	Miss State	at Georgia	UTEP	at Vandy
Independent	Notre Dame	8	7	1	n/a	n/a	BYE	Flordida St.	Virginia	Army	at USC
XII	BYU	9	8	0	5	0	BYE	at Utah	Kansas	at AZ State	Houston
SEC	Texas A&M	10	7	1	5	0	at So Carolina	BYE	NM State	at Auburn	Texas
ACC	Clemson	11	6	1	5	0	L'ville	at VaTech	at Pitt	Citadel	So. Carolina
XII	Iowa State	11	7	0	4	0	Texas Tech	at Kansas	Cincy	at Utah	Kansas State
B1G	Indiana	13	8	0	5	0	at Mich State	Michigan	BYE	at Ohio State	Purdue
SEC	Alabama	14	6	2	3	2	BYE	at LSU	Mercer	at Oklahoma	Auburn
SEC	LSU	16	6	2	3	1	BYE	Alabama	at Florida	Vandy	Oklahoma
XII	Kansas State	17	7	1	4	1	at Houston	BYE	AZ State	Cincy	at Iowa State
ACC	Pitt	18	7	0	3	0	SMU	Virginia	Clemson	at L'ville	at BC
SEC	Ole Miss	19	6	2	2	2	at Arkansas	Georgia	BYE	at Florida	Miss State
ACC	SMU	20	7	1	4	0	at Pitt	BYE	BC	at Virginia	Cal
XII	Colorado	23	6	2	4	1	BYE	at Texas Tech	Utah	at Kansas	Ok State
B1G	Illinois	24	6	2	3	2	Minnesota	BYE	Mich State	at Rutgers	at N'Western
SEC	Mizzou	25	6	2	2	2	BYE	Oklahoma	at So Carolina	at Miss State	Arkansas

Call your shots.

 

[Robert Sorell]

Pure chaos scenarios for CCGs

BYU upset by Arizona State, K-State beats Iowa State, Buffs win out; 4-way tie at 8-1 in Big XII play

Ohio State wins today over Penn State and Beats Indiana, Oregon loses one of their road games or the finale to Washington; 4-way tie at 8-1 in B1G Ten play

SMU beats Pitt today, Clemson and Miami win out; 3-way tie at 8-0 in ACC play

Texas beats A&M, LSU wins out, Georgia wins out, 4-way tie at 7-1 in SEC play

 

[Buffnik]

Notre Dame beats Army but fumbles its playoff opportunity by losing at USC the final week.

 

[Robert Sorell]

I think Wazzu has an outside shot if they finish 11-1.

Illinois is "officially" dead.

Does Vandy contorl their own destiny? They have tSo.Carolina, @LSU, Tennessee remaining. Approx. zero chance they win out, but that schedule would get them in methinks.

The first CFP rankings will be very telling. I think Indiana beats it's AP ranking by a couple of spots. Tulane and Navy maybe in the back end so they're on the radar if Army and Boise slip up.

 

[Darth Snow]

Big 12 being complete hairy ass is going to be a real anchor to any B12 teams hopes.

 

[CarolinaBuff]

I'd be very surprised if WSU gets any serious consideration at 11-1. Their best win would be, let's see......Texas Tech.

 

[Robert Sorell]

Wrong thread... oops

 

[FLounder]

Pure chaos scenarios for CCGs

BYU upset by Arizona State, K-State beats Iowa State, Buffs win out; 4-way tie at 8-1 in Big XII play

Ohio State wins today over Penn State and Beats Indiana, Oregon loses one of their road games or the finale to Washington; 4-way tie at 8-1 in B1G Ten play

SMU beats Pitt today, Clemson and Miami win out; 3-way tie at 8-0 in ACC play

Texas beats A&M, LSU wins out, Georgia wins out, 4-way tie at 7-1 in SEC play

This scenerionleaves CU and BYU with one loss.

ISU and KSU would have two losses.

 

[Robert Sorell]

I'd be very surprised if WSU gets any serious consideration at 11-1. Their best win would be, let's see......Texas Tech.

I mean, Texas' biggest win so far is Vandy? by a FG. Clemson's is Virginia? Pitt's is Cincy? SMU's will be Pitt?

10-2 Buffs best win would be... Texas Tech? or Cincy?

11-1 Indiana (loss to tOSU) best win would be Michigan? or Washington?

I think they're in the discussion compared to 10-2 teams, and it just depends on how many and who.

 

[Robert Sorell]

This scenerionleaves CU and BYU with one loss.

ISU and KSU would have two losses.

The post was before Houston and Texas Tech pulled off upsets.

 

[Buffnik]

My top 12 if I was voting:

1. Oregon
2. Miami
3. Ohio State
4. Georgia
5. Texas
6. BYU
7. Indiana
8. Tennessee
9. Notre Dame
10. Penn State
11. Boise State
12. Alabama

 

[Birch1]

I mean, Texas' biggest win so far is Vandy? by a FG. Clemson's is Virginia? Pitt's is Cincy? SMU's will be Pitt?

10-2 Buffs best win would be... Texas Tech? or Cincy?

11-1 Indiana (loss to tOSU) best win would be Michigan? or Washington?

I think they're in the discussion compared to 10-2 teams, and it just depends on how many and who.

Washington State or CU for ratings?

 

[Robert Sorell]

My top 12 would be:

1. Oregon
2. BYU
3. Ohio State
4. Georgia
5. Miami
6. Indiana
7. Tennessee
8. Texas
9. SMU
10. Penn State
11. Alabama
12. Boise State

wrong side of the bubble: Notre Dame, Texas A&M, LSU, Ole Miss, Iowa State, Pitt (lol), Army

BYU is not going to be there, but their best wins are on the road against a very good SMU squad, and a blowout of KSU, I could see dropping them behind tOSU/Georgia who have losses to good teams and bigger wins.

Miami's best win is one of @Florida or @L'ville, which doesn't hold water to BYU's two biggest wins.

Indiana's best win is Washington? or @Michigan State? They've been dominant, but their schedule has been Charmin soft.

Tennessee best win is over Bama, mabybe they deserve to be ahead of Miami and Indiana too, they have a worse loss than Texas, SMU and Penn State though so they could also slide down to 10

Texas' biggest win is +3 over Vandy, so that's not enough for me to put them over any unbeatens

Penn St's is Illinois +14

You could argue SMU as high as #7, I think Pitt is going to lose at least one more if not 2 though, so that weakens their best win, their loss to BYU is not bad at all

Bama is the quality loss champions, and wins any and all brand strength tiebreakers, the Georgia win is good, and if Mizzou hangs around top 25 that blowout is a big help.

Notre Dame's horrible loss, and the quality of the A&M win taking a hit leave them as the last one out.

Army / Notre Dame being a playoff elimination game is fantastic for the sport.

Ole Miss jumps right in if they can beat Georgia next week, otherwise they are dead in the water.

A&M vs. Texas on Thanksgiving weekend could be a play in game, Texas' rating is really inflated by Michigan and Oklahoma being grossly overrated when Texas got them. I'm not sure beating Florida/Arkansas/Kentucky down the stretch then losing to A&M should guarantee the Longhorns a spot, but it probably would be good enough.

I'm going to update the table I started this thread with each week after the CFP rankings come out.

 

[Robert Sorell]

Washington State or CU for ratings?

Ratings tiebreaker clearly goes to CU, and the bump to all the hot take shows for CU getting a big jump in the final rankings if they're sitting out the CCG would also be great.

That said, on paper WSU 11-1 vs their schedule is probably stronger than Buffs 10-2 with this schedule.

 

[BuffWarHog]

Pure chaos scenarios for CCGs

BYU upset by Arizona State, K-State beats Iowa State, Buffs win out; 4-way tie at 8-1 in Big XII play

Ohio State wins today over Penn State and Beats Indiana, Oregon loses one of their road games or the finale to Washington; 4-way tie at 8-1 in B1G Ten play

SMU beats Pitt today, Clemson and Miami win out; 3-way tie at 8-0 in ACC play

Texas beats A&M, LSU wins out, Georgia wins out, 4-way tie at 7-1 in SEC play

Now do aTm loses to SCAR AND Texas, and UGA loses to Ole Miss

 

[BuffWarHog]

I think Wazzu has an outside shot if they finish 11-1.

Illinois is "officially" dead.

Does Vandy contorl their own destiny? They have tSo.Carolina, @LSU, Tennessee remaining. Approx. zero chance they win out, but that schedule would get them in methinks.

The first CFP rankings will be very telling. I think Indiana beats its AP ranking by a couple of spots. Tulane and Navy maybe in the back end so they're on the radar if Army and Boise slip up.

Navy??

 

[BuffWarHog]

The post was before Houston and Texas Tech pulled off upsets.

All my previous posts in here were just jokes. But the takes prior to finishing out last night were pretty funny.

 

[Duff Man]

My top 12 if I was voting:

1. Oregon
2. Miami
3. Ohio State
4. Georgia
5. Texas
6. BYU
7. Indiana
8. Tennessee
9. Notre Dame
10. Penn State
11. Boise State
12. Alabama

I know why you have Miami at #2, but I would have them around #8 or #9.

 

[Buffnik]

I know why you have Miami at #2, but I would have them around #8 or #9.

The thing is, I don't see anyone except Oregon having an elite season thus far and I'm not sure I see anyone that makes me say, "That's an elite team but they just laid an egg that one week." So I went with the undefeated team that has similar relative talent and the best QB among the top ten and put them at #2.

 

[Birch1]

I know why you have Miami at #2, but I would have them around #8 or #9.

Would love to sneak in and play bitch ass Lanning again.

 

[ahoelsken]

Can we call A&M probably out with that loss last night? I don't think they beat Texas.

 

[Duff Man]

Aside from Miami, the hardest team to rank is Tennessee IMO. They're not great, but their defense is as good as any in the country.

 

[H.E. Pennypacker]

I cannot stand this guy, but he's right.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1853100517473317293

 

[Buffnik]

Buffs are #24 in the new Coaches Poll.

https://sportsdata.usatoday.com/football/cfb/coaches-poll

 

[Robert Sorell]

Can we call A&M probably out with that loss last night? I don't think they beat Texas.

Texas' best win is by 3 over Vandy.

A&M has huge variance in performances.

That game is the purest example of "any given Saturday," especially in a rivalry.

Give me Texas, but zero shock if A&M ended up dominating that one.

 

[ahoelsken]

Texas' best win is by 3 over Vandy.

A&M has huge variance in performances.

That game is the purest example of "any given Saturday," especially in a rivalry.

Give me Texas, but zero shock if A&M ended up dominating that one.

Sure. I think Texas is a lot more talented than A&M is though. I'd say UT is probably the third most talented team in the sport behind Georgia and Oregon. If UT is engaged, my guess is that's a 10-14 point Longhorns victory.

 

[Robert Sorell]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1853152018677797143

 

[4BienemyTDs]

Buffs are #24 in the new Coaches Poll.

https://sportsdata.usatoday.com/football/cfb/coaches-poll

Kansas State has to be pissed with being below us one spot in the AP. I would vote them ahead of us right now to be honest, they beat us at our house, but it is so sweet and funny

 

[Buffnik]

Kansas State has to be pissed with being below us one spot in the AP. I would vote them ahead of us right now to be honest, they beat us at our house, but it is so sweet and funny

I also think it's surprising how few votes that ASU is getting.

 

[Robert Sorell]

Conference

Team

AP Rank

W

L

Con W

Con L

11/9

11/16

11/23

11/30

T25 Wins

Losses

Best Win if no t25

B1G

Oregon

1

9

0

6

0

Maryland

at Wisconsin

BYE

Washington

Boise+3, tOSU+1

SEC

Georgia

2

7

1

5

1

at Ole Miss

Tennessee

UMass

GaTech

nClem+31, atTex+15

atBama(-7)

B1G

Ohio State

3

7

1

4

1

Purdue

at N'Western

Indiana

Michigan

atPennSt+7

atOregon(-1)

ACC

Miami

4

9

0

5

0

at GaTech

BYE

Wake

at Cuse

atL'ville+7

SEC

Texas

5

7

1

3

1

Florida

at Arkansas

Kentucky

at Texas A&M

atVandy+3

Georgia-(15)

B1G

Penn State

6

7

1

4

1

Washington

at Purdue

at Minnesota

Maryland

tOSU(-7)

Illinois+14

SEC

Tennessee

7

7

1

4

1

Miss State

at Georgia

UTEP

at Vandy

Bama+7

atArk.(-5)

B1G

Indiana

8

9

0

6

0

Michigan

BYE

at Ohio State

Purdue

Washington+14

XII

BYU

9

8

0

5

0

at Utah

Kansas

at AZ State

Houston

atSMU+3, KsSt+29

Independent

Notre Dame

10

7

1

n/a

n/a

Fla St.

Virginia

at Army

at USC

atTexAM+10, L'ville+7

No.Ill.(-2)

SEC

Alabama

11

6

2

3

2

at LSU

Mercer

at Oklahoma

Auburn

Georgia+7

atVandy(-5),atTenn(-7)

MWC

Boise State

12

7

1

4

0

Nevada

at SJ State

at Wyoming

Oregon St

WashSt+21

atOregon(-3)

ACC

SMU

13

8

1

5

0

BYE

BC

at Virginia

Cal

L'ville+7, Pitt+23

BYU(-3)

SEC

LSU

14

6

2

3

1

Alabama

at Florida

Vandy

Oklahoma

OleMiss+3

nUSC(-7),atTexAM(-15)

SEC

Texas A&M

15

7

2

5

1

BYE

NM State

at Auburn

Texas

LSU+15

ND(-10), atS.Car(-24)

SEC

Ole Miss

16

7

2

3

2

Georgia

BYE

at Florida

Miss State

Kentucky(-3),atLSU(-3)

atSCaro+24

XII

Iowa State

17

7

1

4

1

at Kansas

Cincy

at Utah

Kansas State

TxTech(-1)

atIowa+1

American

Army

18

8

0

6

0

at No. Texas

BYE

Notre Dame

UTSA

ECU +17

ACC

Clemson

19

6

2

5

1

at VaTech

at Pitt

Citadel

So. Carolina

nGeorgia(-31),Lville(-12)

atWake+35

Pac Dos

Wash State

20

7

1

0

0

Utah St

at New Mexico

at Oregon St

Wyoming

atBoise(-21)

Washington+5 or TxTech+21

XII

Colorado

21

6

2

4

1

at Texas Tech

Utah

at Kansas

Ok State

atNebraska(-18),KsSt(-3)

Cincy+11

XII

Kansas State

22

7

2

4

2

BYE

Arizona State

Cincy

at Iowa State

atColo+3

atBYU(-29),atHou(-5)

ACC

Pitt

23

7

1

3

1

Virginia

Clemson

at L'ville

at BC

atSMU(-23)

Cuse+28

SEC

Vanderbilt

24

6

3

3

2

So.Carolina

BYE

at LSU

Tennessee

Bama+5

atGASt.(-4),atMizzou(-3),Texas(-3)

ACC

Louisville

25

6

3

4

2

BYE

at Stanford

Pitt

at Kentucky

atClemson+12

atND(-7),SMU(-7),Miami(-7)

Remaining games for AP top 25 with losses and best wins listed.

Looking at it this way, BYU and SMU's resumes are better than their rankings.

Louisville deserved that #25 spot, tough to have 3x one score losses to ranked teams.

Glad the voters didn't cram in all SEC teams, but Mizzou and South Carolina are top among the receiving votes crowd.

Boise could end up facing the Lambkins in the MWC title game,

LSU or Bama picks up their third loss next week; I don't think 3 losses necessarily KO's SEC schools, but it makes it a hell of a longshot.

Buffs got lucky and unlucky with Utah and Okie Lite being ass this year, just one of those being what they expected to be would give us some much needed upwards leverage on the remaining schedule.

Vandy won't win out, but closing with three straight wins agains South Carolina, LSU, Tennessee would make them an interesting bubble team.

If Jaxson Dart balls out against Georgia that's huge for the Heisman race and the playoff race.