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CFP recommended to expand to 12-team model

Duff Man

Moderator
Club Member
Junta Member
They will probably go internal to try and keep things going right?

Maybe? There is so much turnover within that assistant coaching staff from year to year, even the "internal" candidates are more outsiders than insiders.

They probably make a Hail Mary attempt at Dabo to start though.
 

Jens1893

Moderator
Club Member
Junta Member
You could be on to something there. Urban “retires” from Ohio State and they don’t miss a beat. Alabama is well suited for that kind of continued success. I’m not certain that Clemson is, though.

I've seen it happen in football with the Champions League and I am seeing similar things in college football with the recent success of Alabama, Clemson and to a lesser extent Oklahoma, Ohio State and Georgia or LSU. And I think the latter four are those who stand to gain the most here.

The playoff gives you such a boost in exposure, finance, recruiting etc. and in turn a competitive advantage over others that's really hard to overcome, and then you have the multiplier effect when you do it 3-4 times. In the end I can see college football ending up with a scenario where you have a group of 8-10 teams (Clemson, Alabama, LSU, UGA, Ohio State, Oklahoma plus maybe Notre Dame if they join a conference, 1-2 P12 teams and maybe another B1G and B12 team) that win 95% of the conference titles and also gobble up pretty much all the playoff at-large spots.

I also think this probably won't be the last expansion.
 

Jens1893

Moderator
Club Member
Junta Member
Saban retiring will cause at least a slight step back at Bama. It is hard to overstate how much he completely controls that entire operation.

And I think they may essentially be coach proof by then and be able to qualify for an expanded playoff no matter who they hire as the recruits will keep flocking to them due to the level Saban has elevated to.

They won't win a national title every other year then, but qualifying for the playoffs will be the key and I think those playoffs will largely be contested by the same 8-10 teams who will all more or less be at the same level year in, year out.
 

TSchekler

Club Member
Club Member
Based on the current state of college football, I really don't understand how people can see this as a negative thing. Maybe you preferred how it was 20+ years ago, but the current post season is awful, so I don't see the point in staying with it.

The fact that 2016 CU would have been in the tournament as the 11 seed playing 6 seed Michigan is all people should need to be pumped at the idea
 

Not Sure

Sets low bar, barely exceeds it.
Club Member
Based on the current state of college football, I really don't understand how people can see this as a negative thing. Maybe you preferred how it was 20+ years ago, but the current post season is awful, so I don't see the point in staying with it.

The fact that 2016 CU would have been in the tournament as the 11 seed playing 6 seed Michigan is all people should need to be pumped at the idea
I think there’s a difference between accepting this as better than the current system and actually being pumped about it. Yes, it’s better. Yes, it will likely expand to 16 teams at some point. I think the problem many have with it is that it is one step closer to NFL lite. If I want to watch the NFL, I’ll watch the NFL.
 

TSchekler

Club Member
Club Member
I think there’s a difference between accepting this as better than the current system and actually being pumped about it. Yes, it’s better. Yes, it will likely expand to 16 teams at some point. I think the problem many have with it is that it is one step closer to NFL lite. If I want to watch the NFL, I’ll watch the NFL.
I’m not sure there will be an appetite for 16 because it doesn’t work with bye weeks and once Bama and Clemson etc get used to a bye week, they aren’t going to push for playing the extra game vs the 13-16 seeds
 

TSchekler

Club Member
Club Member
Whoops, 2016 CU would have been the 10 seed vs OU not 11 vs Michigan.

Either way, we love seeing these kinds of matchups in OOC play at the beginning of the year, so why the hell would people not want to see them at the end of the year, regardless of whether a 5-12 seed is likely to upset a 1-4 seed?



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TSchekler

Club Member
Club Member
If Sark ends up being a candidate for Bama's job in the next 5 years or so, that means he's gotten Texas back to being a top 5 program. At that point, why make the move?
 

30Something

Barzil 3 Applicant
Club Member
I'd love to see a rule that limits the number of participants from a single conference. I'm imagining 4 SEC schools getting in every year.
 

Not Sure

Sets low bar, barely exceeds it.
Club Member
I'd love to see a rule that limits the number of participants from a single conference. I'm imagining 4 SEC schools getting in every year.
Unlikely, IMO. They beat the hell out of each other during the course of the regular season. So while I agree that LSU, Georgia. Alabama, and probably A&M and Florida would all be strong candidates in any given year, the chances of all of them ending up the year ranked in the top 12 is pretty remote.
 

TSchekler

Club Member
Club Member
I'd love to see a rule that limits the number of participants from a single conference. I'm imagining 4 SEC schools getting in every year.
Eh, I don’t think it would be good to limit that. End of the day, the SEC has invested in their football more than other conferences. You can’t just punish them like that. Besides, over the last 10 years, they would have averaged about 3 teams (32 SEC spots) a year, which includes 4 in 2020 that was a really wonky season, but you still want to see the best teams have a shot
 

30Something

Barzil 3 Applicant
Club Member
Eh, I don’t think it would be good to limit that. End of the day, the SEC has invested in their football more than other conferences. You can’t just punish them like that. Besides, over the last 10 years, they would have averaged about 3 teams (32 SEC spots) a year, which includes 4 in 2020 that was a really wonky season, but you still want to see the best teams have a shot
The problem with saying "you still want to see the best teams have a shot" is that the "best teams" are determined based on largely subjective criteria (coaches poll, AP poll, and the slightly more objective computer models). The entire premise of expanding the pool is to ensure those with a fair claim actually have a chance, without getting railroaded by people who don't think a 12-0 mid-major passes the "eye test".

Additionally, If you're the 4th best team in a 12-14 team conference, how can you be considered one of the best in CFB? Hell, you're not even in the top 25% in your conference.

3 teams max per conference seems like it would be a fair compromise, although I would personally prefer to see 2 max.
 

30Something

Barzil 3 Applicant
Club Member
Unlikely, IMO. They beat the hell out of each other during the course of the regular season. So while I agree that LSU, Georgia. Alabama, and probably A&M and Florida would all be strong candidates in any given year, the chances of all of them ending up the year ranked in the top 12 is pretty remote.
The 2016 model posted above had 4 B1G schools in. I'd guess it'll happen more frequently that we'd like.
 

Not Sure

Sets low bar, barely exceeds it.
Club Member
The 2016 model posted above had 4 B1G schools in. I'd guess it'll happen more frequently that we'd like.
It also had three PAC 12 teams. No way to know before it actually happens, but I tend to think that would be very much the exception rather than the norm. With 12 teams in the playoff, I think the goal is for two teams from each P5 conference and two G5 teams. It might not ever work out that way, but I sense that’s the target.
 

hawg1

Club Member
Club Member
The problem with saying "you still want to see the best teams have a shot" is that the "best teams" are determined based on largely subjective criteria (coaches poll, AP poll, and the slightly more objective computer models). The entire premise of expanding the pool is to ensure those with a fair claim actually have a chance, without getting railroaded by people who don't think a 12-0 mid-major passes the "eye test".

Additionally, If you're the 4th best team in a 12-14 team conference, how can you be considered one of the best in CFB? Hell, you're not even in the top 25% in your conference.

3 teams max per conference seems like it would be a fair compromise, although I would personally prefer to see 2 max.
These are not the criteria the Committee uses. Polls have nothing to do with it.
 

hawg1

Club Member
Club Member
It also had three PAC 12 teams. No way to know before it actually happens, but I tend to think that would be very much the exception rather than the norm. With 12 teams in the playoff, I think the goal is for two teams from each P5 conference and two G5 teams. It might not ever work out that way, but I sense that’s the target.
Has that ever happened in CFP if you apply new criteria? Data I saw show B1G and SEC substantially over-represented, as expected.
 

onealcd

Club Member
Club Member
If he’s unable to do it at Texas, why would he be able to at Alabama? Why would Alabama want him if he isn’t able to elevate Texas?
If you have texas rolling it is the best job in the country just ahead of a rolling USC and no one is leaving those jobs unless they want to go to the NFL. Now, a lot can change in 7 years with all these changes coming down in the sport so who knows what the landscape will look like but no one is leaving texas for Alabama when they built it into a winner.
 

Not Sure

Sets low bar, barely exceeds it.
Club Member
Has that ever happened in CFP if you apply new criteria? Data I saw show B1G and SEC substantially over-represented, as expected.
I don’t know. I’m speculating at their motives. Over time, it would probably work out that SEC and B1G are over represented. Anybody’s guess at the level of that over-representation. Maybe it works out that the SEC averages 2.5 teams per year over ten years, the B1G 2.25 and the others fall somewhere below that.
 
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