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College Football as a 64-Team League

There won't be 64 teams that make the cut.
I think it's actually harder to limit it to 48. That would require some very difficult cuts. But money talks and if the hyper elites are told by media companies that the total money is the same at 48 & 64, then it will be 48 teams. Back of the envelope math is that at 48 teams, everyone makes $20M for every $1B in revenue vs $15M per school with 64 teams. Everyone is going to look for max revenue.
 
I think it's actually harder to limit it to 48. That would require some very difficult cuts. But money talks and if the hyper elites are told by media companies that the total money is the same at 48 & 64, then it will be 48 teams. Back of the envelope math is that at 48 teams, everyone makes $20M for every $1B in revenue vs $15M per school with 64 teams. Everyone is going to look for max revenue.
I think 48 is the right number after a lot of reflection
Groups of 6 would be slick, play everyone in your group (5)
Play 1 member from each of the other 7 groups (7)
And then have the playoff with the 8 group winners and 8 wildcards, and the 8 group winners host
 
I think it's actually harder to limit it to 48. That would require some very difficult cuts. But money talks and if the hyper elites are told by media companies that the total money is the same at 48 & 64, then it will be 48 teams. Back of the envelope math is that at 48 teams, everyone makes $20M for every $1B in revenue vs $15M per school with 64 teams. Everyone is going to look for max revenue.

Were about to enter the range where TV pays $120M per school per year (pSpY). Or more. Very few schools after the first 20 to 25 that are easy to name deliver audience to justify that amount. You have to be able to sell a lot of advertising to make those numbers work. Im not saying its impossible. But its a lot harder unless this 64 team conference includes unequal revenue.

Anyway, we have awhile to think about it.

The B1G deal runs thru 2029-2030 estimated to pay $80m to $100m pSpY
The SEC deal runs thru 2033-2034 just paid $51m pSpY

Why the difference? The B1G has engineered a map that delivers much more massive TV markets.

If the pattern above of payments holds true you might see some SEC teams start to complain.
 
Were about to enter the range where TV pays $120M per school per year (pSpY). Or more. Very few schools after the first 20 to 25 that are easy to name deliver audience to justify that amount. You have to be able to sell a lot of advertising to make those numbers work. Im not saying its impossible. But its a lot harder unless this 64 team conference includes unequal revenue.

Anyway, we have awhile to think about it.

The B1G deal runs thru 2029-2030 estimated to pay $80m to $100m pSpY
The SEC deal runs thru 2033-2034 just paid $51m pSpY

Why the difference? The B1G has engineered a map that delivers much more massive TV markets.

If the pattern above of payments holds true you might see some SEC teams start to complain.
I saw an interview with the former president of Fox Sports and he was asked the question:

"Which is more important, Market, Brand, or something else?"

He actually said that the new measurement is essentially a "Q" Rating, similar to Hollywood and Social Media valuations.
It is all about Social Media Clicks, Views, Appeal, etc, and is not totally related to Market or even just the historic brand.

Who would you all say right now has the highest "Q" Rating in CFB? Pretty damn sure it is PRIME

CFB is a Media Business, and all the boring ass white guy coaches that look down at Prime are useless
Screenshot 2024-07-08 at 11.54.33 AM.png
 
I saw an interview with the former president of Fox Sports and he was asked the question:

"Which is more important, Market, Brand, or something else?"

He actually said that the new measurement is essentially a "Q" Rating, similar to Hollywood and Social Media valuations.
It is all about Social Media Clicks, Views, Appeal, etc, and is not totally related to Market or even just the historic brand.

Who would you all say right now has the highest "Q" Rating in CFB? Pretty damn sure it is PRIME

CFB is a Media Business, and all the boring ass white guy coaches that look down at Prime are useless
View attachment 73507


So do the ad execs paying FOX $250,000 for 30 seconds care about this Q score?

Might those execs figure out they could buy that internet ad spot instead to reach the same demographic from twitter or tiktok instead?

Scroll down in this Nielsen article and you’ll see the viewership demographics for PRIME also pop quite bigly.




The big question is can we get out of the B12 and into the B1G now before Prime retires? Or is it too little too late? As in sometime this year.
 
Were about to enter the range where TV pays $120M per school per year (pSpY). Or more. Very few schools after the first 20 to 25 that are easy to name deliver audience to justify that amount. You have to be able to sell a lot of advertising to make those numbers work. Im not saying its impossible. But its a lot harder unless this 64 team conference includes unequal revenue.

Anyway, we have awhile to think about it.

The B1G deal runs thru 2029-2030 estimated to pay $80m to $100m pSpY
The SEC deal runs thru 2033-2034 just paid $51m pSpY

Why the difference? The B1G has engineered a map that delivers much more massive TV markets.

If the pattern above of payments holds true you might see some SEC teams start to complain.
The SEC is projected to be paying out $100m pspy by 2028.
 
The right number is 64. It works.

The way this happens is if Notre Dame proposes it. Notre Dame can make this happen. None of the rest of the jabronis in college sports can pull this together.
 
The SEC is projected to be paying out $100m pspy by 2028.

Sorry I posted from the NYT/Athletic that requires a login. Here are the two quotes that defined it

The current fiscal year largely will feature the same sources of revenue, so the average payout may only go up slightly. But starting with the 2024-25 fiscal year, the new TV deal with ESPN will kick in, and it’s expected to be worth around $811 million [14 + 2]
The SEC still would be short of the Big Ten, with its new $1.1 billion TV deal. [14 + 4]

These dont include post season revenue.

This made me chuckle...

But the two conferences are by far the richest in college sports, a big reason they announced last week they were teaming up to form an “advisory council” to work on the ongoing issues in college athletics.
 
The right number is 64. It works.

The way this happens is if Notre Dame proposes it. Notre Dame can make this happen. None of the rest of the jabronis in college sports can pull this together.
64 is only the right number if you convince the biggest brands to make less money per school than they could be otherwise. Truth is there likely won't even be 48 in that upper tier.
 
64 is only the right number if you convince the biggest brands to make less money per school than they could be otherwise. Truth is there likely won't even be 48 in that upper tier.
As I mentioned, it really only takes convincing Notre Dame. Get them on board, everybody else falls in line.
 
As I mentioned, it really only takes convincing Notre Dame. Get them on board, everybody else falls in line.
You mentioned that, but it's incorrect. Alabama, Georgia, Texas, Ohio State, Oklahoma, etc. aren't taking less money because Notre Dame told them it would be fun.

Edit: And that's not even mentioning the fact that Notre Dame's every action in realignment has been to preserve their football independence, whereas this proposal forces them into a division/ conference. So your proposed fix unfortunately just fails in every way.
 
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You mentioned that, but it's incorrect. Alabama, Georgia, Texas, Ohio State, Oklahoma, etc. aren't taking less money because Notre Dame told them it would be fun.

Edit: And that's not even mentioning the fact that Notre Dame's every action in realignment has been to preserve their football independence, whereas this proposal forces them into a division/ conference. So your proposed fix unfortunately just fails in every way.
Oh yeah they would. No doubt in my mind that if ND proposed this, every single one of those schools would fall in line.

And the fact that what you mention as their historical reluctance to join a conference is the very thing that would drive everybody else to follow suit.
 
Oh yeah they would. No doubt in my mind that if ND proposed this, every single one of those schools would fall in line.

And the fact that what you mention as their historical reluctance to join a conference is the very thing that would drive everybody else to follow suit.
My man, no, the others aren't leaving money on the table because Notre Dame said so.

Do I wish it would happen? Sure. Nik's proposal mostly looks like fun. But there's not 48 teams, much less 64, that can drive revenue the way the big dogs want.
 
My man, no, the others aren't leaving money on the table because Notre Dame said so.

Do I wish it would happen? Sure. Nik's proposal mostly looks like fun. But there's not 48 teams, much less 64, that can drive revenue the way the big dogs want.
If Notre Dame says “this is good for college football, we will all make as much or more than we did before, and we are doing it”. The others will fall in line. I think there’s a good reason to suspect a 64-team college football league would make a lot more than what is being passed out now, even to the SEC and the B1G. The matchups would be better, the competition for content would be higher, and there would be an actual college football playoff that would rival any televised sporting event. Oh, and there would be two extra regular season games per team.

As with most things like this, there’s no way to know until it happens, but I am personally convinced there would be more money to go around. Notre Dame is the lynchpin, though.
 
Oh yeah they would. No doubt in my mind that if ND proposed this, every single one of those schools would fall in line.

And the fact that what you mention as their historical reluctance to join a conference is the very thing that would drive everybody else to follow suit.
There are only a handful of hyper elites that will consistently deliver elevated ratings to a national broadcast (even if it only significantly elevates in a high value region).

Notre Dame & Texas at the top.

Michigan, USC, Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Florida, Miami, Florida State, LSU, Oklahoma and Penn State are also in this tier.

Auburn, aTm, UCLA, Oregon, Tennessee and some others matter but aren't at the level of the first couple groups.

I'd say that if ND & UT aligned that the others would be joining with them in a heartbeat.

As a side note, Prime CU is among the group that moves the needle regardless of record. I can't imagine media companies leaving CU out when there may only be a half dozen programs that generate more business for them right now.
 
You’re missing the point entirely. This system that Nik “came up with” is the best possible solution. It’s a bajillion times better than what we have. It resores some regionality while increasing revenue across the board. There will be some losers, but far fewer than what we have now. It increases payouts, makes college football interesting again, helps keep the non revenue sports afloat, and places the leverage back with the schools instead of with the networks. I’m not concerned about “some of those teams”. I’m concerned with the long term viability of college sports.
It won’t increase payouts per team. You are missing a key point. Others have tried to tell you as well.
 
Were about to enter the range where TV pays $120M per school per year (pSpY). Or more. Very few schools after the first 20 to 25 that are easy to name deliver audience to justify that amount. You have to be able to sell a lot of advertising to make those numbers work. Im not saying its impossible. But its a lot harder unless this 64 team conference includes unequal revenue.

Anyway, we have awhile to think about it.

The B1G deal runs thru 2029-2030 estimated to pay $80m to $100m pSpY
The SEC deal runs thru 2033-2034 just paid $51m pSpY

Why the difference? The B1G has engineered a map that delivers much more massive TV markets.

If the pattern above of payments holds true you might see some SEC teams start to complain.
These two leagues will decide who gets invited to the 48 party.
 
The NFL gets something like $10B/year in TV money. I just have to believe there is at least half that available to a national, NFL style college football league that includes every major market and some cannon fodder programs.

A $5B/year deal would be around $80m/year/school in a 64 team league, btw, assuming it was split evenly, so roughly what the P2 are making now.
 
The NFL gets something like $10B/year in TV money. I just have to believe there is at least half that available to a national, NFL style college football league that includes every major market and some cannon fodder programs.

A $5B/year deal would be around $80m/year/school in a 64 team league, btw, assuming it was split evenly, so roughly what the P2 are making now.
NBA just inked at $2.67B per year. That's the 2nd richest domestic deal. But that league does crazy well with international and digital, so its total media deal was $76B over 11 years (just under $7B per year).

Based on what the hyper elites in CFB are getting right now, I think you have to show them something like $150M pspy to get them to agree to scrap what they've got going on currently. That is the kind of money that would make, for example, UM-OSU-USC-PSU give zero fvcks about anyone else in the B1G. With balanced revenue, that's a $4.8B deal on 32 teams, a $7.2B deal on 48 teams, or a $9.6 on 64 teams.

I don't think $9.6B is realistic and $7.2B may not be either. So we're maybe looking at 32 unless the number goes higher than I would have thought possible. Otherwise, we may see 64 through teams taking half shares rather than getting left out. It would suck, but leverage is everything and I guarantee that if CU was given the choice between $75M or being left behind we'd take the half rate and bitch constantly about how UT & USC greed was ruining CFB.

Edit: maybe $120M-ish pspy would get it done since there would still be maybe $10-20 pspy available on a deal for all other sports?
 
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If Notre Dame says “this is good for college football, we will all make as much or more than we did before, and we are doing it”.
"This is for the good of college football, you'll all make less money per school than you could be, but make the sacrifice for the sport. You know, like you always have."

Ya I'm sure Texas et al. will sign right up.
 
Other thing is that it's not just the media money. There's also the postseason revenue and the sponsorship agreements which would go up in value while being split into significantly fewer shares.
 
"This is for the good of college football, you'll all make less money per school than you could be, but make the sacrifice for the sport. You know, like you always have."

Ya I'm sure Texas et al. will sign right up.
You might want to check multi quote again. They’d make more, not less.
 
As I mentioned, it really only takes convincing Notre Dame. Get them on board, everybody else falls in line.
someone die GIF
The Critic Leprechaun GIF
 
You might want to check multi quote again. They’d make more, not less.

You might want to check basic math again. The biggest brands will make less per school in a 64 team league than they will in a smaller league.
I’m not sure why either of you are making definitive statements about this. Everyone automatically following ND’s lead seems like a stretch and there is certainly a way for everyone to make more money as an organized league entity that puts its multiple media deals out for bidding among the traditional networks and streamers.
 
I’m not sure why either of you are making definitive statements about this. Everyone automatically following ND’s lead seems like a stretch and there is certainly a way for everyone to make more money as an organized league entity that puts its multiple media deals out for bidding among the traditional networks and streamers.
Fair. I’m making an assumption option that the addition of additional games, more content, better matchups, and a compelling playoff will increase payouts. Berkeley is assuming the opposite.
 
I’m not sure why either of you are making definitive statements about this. Everyone automatically following ND’s lead seems like a stretch and there is certainly a way for everyone to make more money as an organized league entity that puts its multiple media deals out for bidding among the traditional networks and streamers.
I'm not saying I know what the cutoff is, I'm just saying that the idea that a league which includes Northwestern, Syracuse, Boston College, Wake Forest, UCF, WSU, etc can generate as much money per team as a league made more predominantly of Texas, Ohio State, Alabama and the like is failing to grasp basic economic reality.

Looked at a different way, those proposing 64 teams are already admitting there's a cutoff point, because they're not including all the FBS teams currently in a "G5" league. You only see proposals for 64 teams on the message boards of teams who aren't for sure in the top 24 - 48. And that's because it's an attempt to grasp at a number that makes that person's chosen team "safe" while justifying it via some pleasing numerical balance (as id that matters). Meanwhile, the top brands have message boards (and big donors) who think 48 is too big.

And yes, the "everyone will just fall in line behind Notre Dame" thing is beyond ridiculous.
 
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