Man, if the P12 ever wanted to replace WSU with a more lucrative "competitive" school, this could be the opportunity.
After thinking for a hot second, this could actually be the impetus for the top 30-60 schools to actually leave the rest behind. Those schools might not even need to leave the NCAA - everyone else may be "voluntarily" dropping down to FCS or even D2 or D3.
I've been talking about this for years.
Big time college football is simply getting too expensive for most schools to come close to competing. As the TV landscape changes that is going to get even more divided. The networks that are paying want big name programs in their time slots.
Those schools that are generating the revenue aren't going to be willing to continue to share it with the tail end programs (in terms of revenue generation) and the schools that are left out which will include almost if not all the G5 schools are going to be left fighting for even smaller scraps.
D1 (which may actually end up being a completely new and separate organization from the NCAA) with 40-60 schools.
Second tier consisting of most of the G5 schools and some top FCS schools like NDSU and the Montana schools as examples
Third tier with the lower half of current FCS and top D2 schools (Northern Colorado and CSU Pueblo would fit here)
Fourth including lower D2 teams and most current D3.
Top tier with players paid for their images and all athletes receiving checks to cover (cost of enrollment.) Programs run almost like a pro franchise.
Second tier with 60-75 scholarships, no payments for cost of enrollment (similar to what the rules currently allow.) Full coaching staff, fly to most or many games
Third tier with 50-65 scholarships but those scholarships can be split allowing financial aid for a larger number of players. Smaller football staff, bus to most games.
Fourth tier limited if any scholarships, programs run similar to a top HS program with limited staff and bus to most games.
Some programs are not going to be very happy being forced down because they will no longer be able to claim they are "big time" but in the end they won't have much choice. A few schools may make the decision that if they are no longer in the top division they might as well either drop football or drop down to a significantly cheaper level going from current G5 to the third or fourth tier. I could see schools like San Jose State and UMass giving up football entirely.
CSU would try to hold on as high as they could for as long as they can and that second tier would be a natural fit for them.
Whete does CU end up in your scenario?
CU despite our terrible results in recent years still would fit revenue wise into the top tier. We get good TV ratings (much better when we are winning) and we draw well on the road.
Question is if the administration would be willing to commit to maintaining a program that requires that kind of financial and administrative support.
