To create a league?
That approach has always made sense to me. There's really no reason to remain under the NCAA for broadcast sports.
AllBuffs | Unofficial fan site for the University of Colorado at Boulder Athletics programs
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
-
Prime Time. Prime Time. Its a new era for Colorado football. Consider signing up for a club membership! For $20/year, you can get access to all the special features at Allbuffs, including club member only forums, dark mode, avatars and best of all no ads ! But seriously, please sign up so that we can pay the bills. No one earns money here, and we can use your $20 to keep this hellhole running. You can sign up for a club membership by navigating to your account in the upper right and clicking on "Account Upgrades". Make it happen!
College Football Realignment
- Thread starter InTheBuff
- Start date
That approach has always made sense to me. There's really no reason to remain under the NCAA for broadcast sports.
Or you see a complete re-organization resulting in six divisions, eight teams each, total of 48.
In this situation because the organizations that are currently called the SEC and the Big 10 as well as the ACC and Big 12 cease to exist they are able to throw out a few schools that are collecting huge amounts of money each year without really adding much value. Northwestern, Vandy, as examples plus a number of recent additions to the ACC/B12 which end up again relegated to the pretender level along with schools like CSU.
At some point the big money schools are going to look at their current conference mates and wonder why they are sending $100 a year to them when they are responsible for much less in actual value. Drop two schools which the networks wouldn't mind losing and that leaves an additional $20 million per year for each of the remaining schools.
I don't see the SEC or Big10 dissolving themselves. Too much 'ego' when they are raking in the $$ as it is.
15 Years ago we never would have seen the PAC gone and USC/UCLA part of the B1G.
Ego and tradition go out the window when tens of millions per year are involved.
It would have to be substantially more $$$. Those two are already printing their own money. Personally I don't see it happening anytime soon.
I still think private equity is a trap, reports are they are looking for 30% of revenue as their cut.
I think P2 contraction happens without disolving their conferences. They'll vote to add new rules requiring each school to have a certain level of financial investment in football, a certain size stadium, attendance, minimum viewership, etc... that Northwestern, Vandy, whoever... couldn't meet without some seismic change.
BerkeleyBuff
Well-Known Member
I think you've got the right 20, except I'm really not sure Syracuse brings anything. Would rather have Cal or Stanford than SDSU if going all the way to California (obviously biased though).
I think the decision for who gets invited and how it's structured, if trying to form something that would attract SEC/B1G level media money, begins and ends with:
"Hey, Notre Dame. What would it need to look like for you to be a full member of a conference?"
BerkeleyBuff
Well-Known Member
And I don't think that is anything remotely near possible, hence why I don't even mention it. Should Yormark take a swing? Sure, of course, just like I'd take my shot if I ever saw Scarlett Johansson in real life. I just would bet a very large sum of money it never happens.
If ND goes anywhere, it'll be wherever and whenever the hell they want. They haven't won a title since fvcking 1988, but unfortunately, they are a brand.
Adding to the above, my understanding is that Notre Dame values a few things:
- scheduling flexibility (8-game schedule)
- traditional rivalries
- national schedule that gives them exposure in key recruiting & alumni areas
- peers in conference (well-heeled private colleges and high academic reputations)
Let's assume that the SEC adds 2 to match B1G at 18 members and the new Notre Dame led conference will match those numbers. With that, there's a lot of meat on the bone. I'm not sure there's a conference membership group with enough at the top if SEC & B1G go to 20 each, taking 6 away instead of 2. But even then, it would be a much more valuable membership group than the Big 12 & ACC currently have and be worth pursuing.
- scheduling flexibility (8-game schedule)
- traditional rivalries
- national schedule that gives them exposure in key recruiting & alumni areas
- peers in conference (well-heeled private colleges and high academic reputations)
Let's assume that the SEC adds 2 to match B1G at 18 members and the new Notre Dame led conference will match those numbers. With that, there's a lot of meat on the bone. I'm not sure there's a conference membership group with enough at the top if SEC & B1G go to 20 each, taking 6 away instead of 2. But even then, it would be a much more valuable membership group than the Big 12 & ACC currently have and be worth pursuing.
Last edited:
It kind of did when SEC & B1G both went to 14, along with ACC. Then, when SEC announced OU/UT, B1G matched with USC/UCLA. B1G going to 18 with UO/UW was a weird move fueled by Phil Knight refusing to take no for an answer and them taking a horrible deal to get in. So, I think the likelihood is that SEC matches with 18. Their footprint interest has always been to have North Carolina and Virginia. The SEC geography is the Confederacy.
If the ultimate goal of the networks is to have two competing conferences, it most certainly matters
Many of us would love to see this but the TV execs who control the money wouldn't let that happen. Notre Dame brings big ratings.
Also though if push came to shove Notre Dame can act as elite as they want to but if it came down to a decision of making $150 million plus per year and accepting being part of a super conference or making $30 million per year outside of that superconfernce they would not only join but act like it was their idea all along.
If it makes them money the networks will figure it out.
They have no trouble figuring out how to distribute broadcast rights for the NFL. Sunday day games AFC for CBS, NFC for Fox (with some exchange when needed) Sunday night for NBC, Monday night for ABC/ESPN, Thursday now for Amazon Prime with some other individual games mixed around.
With 30-50 teams in a super league there would be enough content for all.
The end game remains 8 divisions of 8 teams with a 14 game regular season. Play everybody in your division and one team from each of the others. 16-team playoff with the winners of each division getting in and the remaining 8 teams chosen via ranking. Revenue sharing across all 64 teams. It’s NFL lite, but it would still be marginally entertaining.
#1 pick
Well-Known Member
ND made like 150 million more than every school just by making the natty and not having to split with anyone. That's why ND has no interest in joining a conference and now their favorites are in the ACC. As long as ND doesn't leave, the ACC will live. In fact, maybe longer than the Big XII. The Big XII needs Colorado or loyalist like Texas Tech to emerge and dominate. They want to avoid Kansas and especially Utah from doing it as those two teams are teams that want to bail.
#1 pick
Well-Known Member
I still don't believe this super conference will happen before 2035. 2036 which the ACC contract is up is when we will know what the landscape will look like.
BerkeleyBuff
Well-Known Member
I mean, would be awesome, but will never happen/ no impetus for it to happen. But ya, I think most of us would probably sign up for that.
I believe it will happen. The money for something like that would be absurd. Way more than what is being done now. If ND says it wants this to happen, which I believe they will (at some point) then it will happen. I acknowledge this won’t happen until ND is on board. In theory, it could be 65 teams, with 8x8 plus ND who can set their own schedule as they see fit. That could be the accommodation that makes it happen.
BerkeleyBuff
Well-Known Member
I'm not sure the money per school is more in that model is more than it currently is for the top of the B1G and SEC, thus why I see no impetus for it. There is still some finite amount of money, whatever it is, and the current model funnels more of that to a select few schools instead of across 64, so the B1G and SEC powerbrokers have no reason to desire such a change. But hey, again, I'd be happy as **** if it came to pass. If it happens I'll buy you enough beers to get you ****faced at the next Buffs game.
The current NFL media deal pays out $10B/year. Assuming college football could get 75% of that, it would pay all 65 teams a minimum of $115MM per year. That’s before ticket sales, bowl payouts, merchandising, concessions, etc. The money *should* be there. It would also make college football enjoyable again.
I just think CFB is too regional to warrant that kind of money. The average NFL game viewership is 17.5m people. That is 5m more viewers than Ohio State/Michigan last year. That’s why the NFL gets $10B/year. I don’t see a 64 team CFB league warranting anything close to that.
I think that the impetus isn't that the top 5-10 want it because they'll get more money (i.e. you'reabsolutely right), but the impetus is that 11 through 64 want it because they'll get more money, and end of day, if they act in coordination, 1 through 10 will have to go along.
It's not going to be 60+ teams.
The big money programs do not want to share their millions (billions over a decade) with UCF, BYU, Iowa State, SMU, Louiseville, Pitt, even with traditional conference mates like Vandy, Northwestern, Kentucky, etc.
It won't work without a relatively balanced revenue sharing and Texas, Michigan, etc. don't see the need to share their financial bonanza with schools that don't produce TV ratings and don't fill seats.
As long as Prime is here (or the program is carrying on his legacy) CU is in decent shape but just a few years ago we were a prime candidate to be left out when the consolidation happens.
BerkeleyBuff
Well-Known Member
Right now, teams 11-34 (the remainder of the SEC and B1G) also make more money per school than they would if all the money of CFB got divided 64 ways. So I don't see why they'd go along, either.
You don’t need that kind of viewership per game when you have twice the number of games.