If the people making these decisions are in fact that stupid (not saying they aren't), then the goats' dreams may come true...Violent agreement here. To my knowledge, the value baseline for TV agreements is the size of the markets of the conference teams, not historical viewership rates, which is would seem the more logical metric to use.
I still think too much money is on the line for that level of incompetence. On the other hand one thing I've learned to never bet against is the capacity of human beings to be really, really stupid.