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Colorado Basketball Win Shares and Adjusted +/- for the last 5 seasons

Trust me I get that watching paint dry is more exciting to most people than sports analytics. That being said, if you like sports, gambling and #'s at all the Predictive Sports Betting Analytics panel at the MIT Conf is pretty entertaining. It's moderated by Jeff Ma, he's one of the people profiled in the book "bringing down the house" and the move "21". And the panel includes Chad Millman (editor for ESPN Mag and their gambling writer) Bob Voulgaris (bball gambler) and Matthew Holt from Cantor Gaming.
 
shang said:
Hey jg... was wondering if you're familiar w/ Prof. David Berri's stat model on hoops efficiency? Is it similar to the James method of Win Shares? Also noticed that stalzer was not on the chart. There's all the stats for the NBA, was wondering if there was a model for the college game. Also maybe I missed it but is there a 2012/2013 IER chart for this past season somewhere on this site? thx
Click to expand...

Sorry I'm so incredibly late in the discussion here - I'm a big analytics not - but NOT a Berri guy. He's just recently changed the weight of defensive rebounding to his work - and before than he did position adjustments - all in an attempt to have the results not be bad. I could go into details - but suffice to say, Dennis Rodman had a higher "Wins Produced" than Michael Jordan one season according to Berri.

I just created my WAR for the NBA - not the NCAA. I'll still be ranking college players by HnR (an overall seasonal rating, 100 D1 average) or HnI (same as HnR except based on impact when availabe to play - missed games don't hurt player's rating). I currently now have the last four seasons of ALL D1 players over 20% of available team minutes rated and ranked - about 3000 players each season.

Dan
www.hoopsnerd.com
https://NOPE/Hoops_Nerd
 
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Win Shares are updated for the 2013/2014 season. Adjusted +/- is not updated yet, the individual KenPom #'s have not been updated on his site to populate the formula. Will update Adjusted +/- once those are updated.
 
Thoughts on the season -

Gordon is good, his efficiency is off of the charts. And if you look at his shot chart there is a good reason why.

Gordon shot chart through two games

Gordon Through 2 games.jpg



Booker didn't have a great game against Baylor - you can see his shot chart, lots of 3's and mid-range shots.

Booker Baylor.jpg

Compare that to the UT-Martin game shot chart, he shot more shots at the rim and most of his shots were good shots within the offense.

Booker UT.jpg
 
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Looking at the shot charts for the last few games and for the season I found a couple of things interesting that I'd pass along. Here is Booker's shot chart through 4 games, what I found interesting is outside of the one right elbow jumper, he hasn't made anything outside of the lane from the right side of the court. This will be something interesting to watch as the season progresses.
ski through games.jpg

As Tante pointed out, lots of 3's and shots in the paint against Jackson St. A shot chart I can get behind here:
CU vs Jackson State.jpg
 
jg - Good stuff!

You missed that 3 that Ski made in the last game from the right side though. I know you remember it, because he came around a screen to his left, squared up in rhythm, and drained it... then proceeded to try to force the same shot the next time down the court and missed it since he was falling to his left as he took it.
 
Buffnik said:
jg - Good stuff!

You missed that 3 that Ski made in the last game from the right side though. I know you remember it, because he came around a screen to his left, squared up in rhythm, and drained it... then proceeded to try to force the same shot the next time down the court and missed it since he was falling to his left as he took it.
Click to expand...

against jackson st? I've got ski with to left side 3's and the deep one from the top of the key. Talton had a nice one in the right corner.
 
jgisland said:
against jackson st? I've got ski with to left side 3's and the deep one from the top of the key. Talton had a nice one in the right corner.
Click to expand...

Maybe I'm mis-remembering, but I thought that was Ski on Saturday morning.
 
Something I've been following and will continue to follow this year is tempo/pace. KenPom broke it down pretty well in a post the other day. The cliff notes are basically that scoring is up b/c more fouls are being called in lieu of turnovers and not necessarily because the game is being played faster.

As I've said about 75 times I've thought this new emphasis is a good thing for CU (CU gets to the line at a great rate and compared to other teams doesn't send their opponents to the line). Here's a comparison of CU's overall tempo, length of offensive possession, length of defensive possession and my twist where I think this new rule could make a huge impact, the % of field goal attempts in the last 5 seconds of the shot clock. As you can see in the last 3 years CU has never shot above 50% in the last 5 seconds of the shot clock and this year CU is shooting 5% less shots in those last 5 seconds. So this is another good thing for CU, because so many fouls are being called CU isn't putting themselves into a situation where they have to put up a shot late in the shot clock, where they aren't tremendously efficient. (this is obviously a small sample size of 4 games, but worth tracking as the season goes on)

[TABLE="class: grid, width: 430"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]2013/2014[/TD]
[TD]2012/2013[/TD]
[TD]2011/2012[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tempo[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]68.6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]65[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]65.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tempo Rank[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]104[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]216[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]189[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Avg Off Poss[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17.9[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Avg Off Poss Rank[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]72[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]148[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]110[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Avg Def Poss[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17.6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]18.4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]19[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Avg Def Poss Rank[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]105[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]227[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]323
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]% of FGA in last 5 sec of shot clock[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.4
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11.6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]eFG% in last 5 sec of shot clock[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]46.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]48.3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]46.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
Arkansas St shot chart: once again pretty solid, lots in the paint around the rim and 3's.

arky st.jpg

Here is the whole season shot chart - the disparity of makes on the left side of the court from 3 is starting to become more apparent.

cu through arky state 1.jpg
 
Inside the numbers for the KU game

[TABLE="class: grid, width: 392"]
[TR]
[TD]CATEGORY
[/TD]
[TD]Colorado[/TD]
[TD]Kansas[/TD]
[TD]DIFFERENCE[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]FGA[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]56[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]51[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]FTA[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]37[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]20[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]True Shot Attempts[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]73.575[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]60.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13.075[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Off Rebs[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TOs[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]14[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]ORB - TO[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TS%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]50.97%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]61.98%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-11.02%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]ORB%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]38%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]32%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.055[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TO%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]21%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.091[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Points/100 Poss[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]111.1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]94[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
Thanks, jg.

Two things that really stand out to me:

On win shares, J-Hop is steadily progressing to "6th starter" type numbers on a very balanced team.

On the KU game, it's amazing that even a team as talented as KU benefits from slowing pace/ reducing possessions against the Buffs.
 
As much as we joke about it, Snow's totally right. Tad isn't afraid to ugly it up to win (TadBall). CU shot like ****, but Tad finds a way to win with the offensive rebounding margin and TO battle in such dramatic fashion that CU ends up with 13 more true shot attempts.
 
jgisland said:
As much as we joke about it, Snow's totally right. Tad isn't afraid to ugly it up to win (TadBall). CU shot like ****, but Tad finds a way to win with the offensive rebounding margin and TO battle in such dramatic fashion that CU ends up with 13 more true shot attempts.
Click to expand...
How awesome was that 13th shot?
 
i've got a some time today so I'm going to update a few things - if anybody has anything they're curious about or would like me to pull the #'s on......go.....!
 
Would like to see an updated shot chart. I feel like our presence in the paint should be getting pretty apparent by now.
 
Shot chart breakdown based on where we are in the shot clock. If possible.
 
Everything is updated through the WSU game - updated shot charts may not happen today. The database I'll pull this from is eff'd. (rugged - i'm working on something on the shots late in the shot clock, will probably answer some of what you're looking for)

A couple thoughts on the win shares/adjusted +/-

Wes’ offensive rating has dropped 20 points since the Kansas game

Josh Scott’s #'s haven't moved, been playing at a consistently high level

Booker with his highest offensive rating in a CU uniform - and also he's in the positive for the first time in in adjusted +/-. This purely because he's being more efficiency on the offensive end of the floor. What we've all seen and been commenting on his good year is really showing up in his numbers.
 
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