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Colorado RPI Watch

not an exact science, but Murray State is forecast to finish #54 overall in RPI and St Johns at #60 with Murray State having more wins, but a much easier schedule (206th to 58th). If Murray State does anything close to what it did last season (not likely). Their out of conference schedule is pretty easy this year so that hurts their RPI and ours.
 
Boston College is clearly not the worst team in the ACC like the media poll predicted. Gave Baylor a good fight, and now look to be in a close game with Dayton. Come on Flyers, get this....
 
I never thought I'd see the day when 100+ are in the BB forum and 24 in the FB forum in November...
 
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Oregon State has started strong against Purdue. Ups 22-13 with 11 mins to go in the 1st . Not expecting a win here, but this one would be very big for the conference if it happens.
 
I have a hypothetical question about RP. If you had the #1 RPI in college basketball, how many wins wins would you need to be considered a tournament team?
 
dio said:
I have a hypothetical question about RP. If you had the #1 RPI in college basketball, how many wins wins would you need to be considered a tournament team?
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Most likely you would have the most wins in the country (unless you have a terrible SOS - I am talking about you Murray State). It would be impossible to be #1 in RPI and only have something like 18 wins. I guess maybe if you played 30 games and they were against the top 14 teams (all on the road) and won 18 of those it would be possible.
 
dio said:
I have a hypothetical question about RP. If you had the #1 RPI in college basketball, how many wins wins would you need to be considered a tournament team?
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I'm not sure I understand the question. #1 RPI at the end of the season will be one of the handful of teams that finishes with 30+ wins in a power conference.

RPI is calculated as follows:

In its current formulation, the index comprises a team's winning percentage (25%), its opponents' winning percentage (50%), and the winning percentage of those opponents' opponents (25%). The opponents' winning percentage and the winning percentage of those opponents' opponents both comprise the strength of schedule (SOS). Thus, the SOS accounts for 75% of the RPI calculation and is 2/3 its opponents' winning percentage and 1/3 times its opponents' opponents' winning percentage.

RPI = (WP * 0.25) + (OWP * 0.50) + (OOWP * 0.25)


where WP is Winning Percentage, OWP is Opponents' Winning Percentage and OOWP is Opponents' Opponents' Winning Percentage.


The WP is calculated by taking a team's wins divided by the number of games it has played (i.e. wins plus losses).


For Division 1 NCAA Men's basketball, the WP factor of the RPI was updated in 2004 to account for differences in home, away, and neutral games. A home win now counts as 0.6 win, while a road win counts as 1.4 wins. Inversely, a home loss equals 1.4 losses, while a road loss counts as 0.6 loss. A neutral game counts as 1 win or 1 loss. This change was based on statistical data that consistently showed home teams in Division I basketball winning about two-thirds of the time. Note that this location adjustment applies only to the WP factor and not the OWP and OOWP factors. Only games against Division 1 teams are included for all RPI factors. As an example, if a team loses to Syracuse at home, beats them away, and then loses to Cincinnati away, their record would be 1-2.

Considering the weighted aspect of the WP, their winning percentage is 1.4 / (1.4 + 1.4 + 0.6) = 0.4117

Because SOS is so important with RPI, this is why we say that losing at Kansas is better than beating Texas Southern at home. They're going to have a huge winning percentage (1/2 the calculation) and they play in an excellent conference so their opponents have a high win percentage (1/4 the calculation). A loss to them is still a net positive on 3/4 of the RPI calculation. Conversely, beating Texas Southern at home is win that doesn't get any extra weight for being home or neutral (1/4 the calculation with a downward modifier) and then they'll end up with about a .500 record (1/2 the calculation) in a conference that will lose more games than it wins (1/4 the calculation). In that case, it helps for 1/4, hurts for 1/4, and is pretty much neutral for half. That win does nothing to help RPI and may actually hurt.

Given this, the formula for getting into the NCAA tournament as a bubble team is to play a lot of good teams and then find a way to get to over 20 wins. That makes a team a lock. In 2010 we had got passed over for teams that played crap records (USC, Penn State, etc.) but played great schedules.

Anyway, to be #1 it takes a great schedule and a great record. That team is going to get a #1 seed in the Dance.

Today's win for the Buffs gives us a neutral site win (no modifier) against a team that will have an excellent record in an excellent conference. Translation: Huge RPI boost.
 
St. John's/Murray State underway....Even with the championship Sunday, I like that the Buffs get 5 hours more rest. St. John's with the early lead.

Solid win by Dayton. Need them to push for the Dance the rest of the way. Their biggest remaining OOC games are Alabama and Murray State (the Murray State game is Dec 22nd, obviously not related to the tournament in Charleston) and @ Southern Cal (actually want USC to win that one, but you get the point). Then they enter a loaded A-10 with plenty of chances for quality wins.
 
Buffnik said:
Oregon State has started strong against Purdue. Ups 22-13 with 11 mins to go in the 1st . Not expecting a win here, but this one would be very big for the conference if it happens.
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Beavs up 11, 39-28 on Purdue at halftime. Need to get this.

St. John's still up on Murray State, 23-14 deep in the first half
 
Johnnies are looking pretty good. I would rather play Murray State because they are somewhat one dimentional and we know we can shut down guard play.
 
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Still think St. John's essentially playing only 7 guys catches up with them in a tournament like this. May not be until Sunday, but...
 
Six days before Thanksgiving, Colorado has accomplished something no Pac-12 team did last season: It defeated a ranked team.

Roll Tad
 
tante said:
Six days before Thanksgiving, Colorado has accomplished something no Pac-12 team did last season: It defeated a ranked team.

Roll Tad
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Thats not true. 1 Pac 12 team beat a ranked team last year, Colorado beat UNLV.
 
So, we're playing Murray State on Sunday. Not a bad match up for us, IMO. Ski's type of game, and should be able to hit the boards hard. Murray State is a solid team though, and basketball is a religion in western Kentucky. Let's get this
 
Buffnik said:
Oregon State has started strong against Purdue. Ups 22-13 with 11 mins to go in the 1st . Not expecting a win here, but this one would be very big for the conference if it happens.
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Oregon State ended up beating Purdue by 8 for another Pac 12 OOC win against a power conference.
 
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