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Colorado v Oregon - September 23rd, 1.30pm Mountain, ABC

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jaybird said:
Before the season, projections were around us being 3 td underdogs against the ducks. Doesn't seem like it's moved enough considering how both of these teams have been playing vs their competition. I don't think we should be the favorite, but being 2 td underdogs seems too much. But hey, it will be good in the long run. Give the buffs another chip on their shoulder to play for.
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Which books posted those numbers?
 
jaybird said:
Before the season, projections were around us being 3 td underdogs against the ducks. Doesn't seem like it's moved enough considering how both of these teams have been playing vs their competition. I don't think we should be the favorite, but being 2 td underdogs seems too much. But hey, it will be good in the long run. Give the buffs another chip on their shoulder to play for.
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Oregon and CU both still big unknowns that won’t get any more clarity this week with Rams/Hawaii matchups. I suppose TCU-Houston might tell us a little more about that win.
 
PAC MAN said:
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well we just won the number 1 2 (edited) sports viewership for Saturday across all networks with 8.73 million viewers for the CU/knu game. for those that got their education in Oregon...viewership impacts media contracts and therefore the distribution. For comparison Oregon was highest in the Pac12 last year with an average of 2.21m viewers.
 
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The traditional thinking is that the books want half the money on each team and then they collect the vig. This is a zero percent risk position for them. The lines I believe move with the volume of bets on each team in an effort to get to the 50/50 ratio. There are probably advanced analytics beyond these basics these days but if you keep the fundamentals in mind then the whole odds making thing becomes simpler. At least to me.
 
Liver said:
The traditional thinking is that the books want half the money on each team and then they collect the vig. This is a zero percent risk position for them. The lines I believe move with the volume of bets on each team in an effort to get to the 50/50 ratio. There are probably advanced analytics beyond these basics these days but if you keep the fundamentals in mind then the whole odds making thing becomes simpler. At least to me.
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That’s not how bookmaking is done anymore.
 
manhattanbuff said:
That’s not how bookmaking is done anymore.
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i wondered.

thanks for weighing in. i am sure the data available is light years better than it used to be. in the "new way", are they actually using data to attract bettors to a bet that they believe the book will win?

if so, ****ing amazing world.
 
Liver said:
i wondered.

thanks for weighing in. i am sure the data available is light years better than it used to be. in the "new way", are they actually using data to attract bettors to a bet that they believe the book will win?

if so, ****ing amazing world.
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Modern day books release lines to test the market. They want to gauge what profitable bettors see as inefficient lines at low limits. As the limits go up, they have a position on that they believe is the right side of a line. They want to accept as much money as possible on the “wrong” side of the line.

This is why betting poor numbers is a losing strategy in the long haul despite the interloper’s ignorant musings.
 
manhattanbuff said:
Modern day books release lines to test the market. They want to gauge what profitable bettors see as inefficient lines at low limits. As the limits go up, they have a position on that they believe is the right side of a line. They want to accept as much money as possible on the “wrong” side of the line.

This is why betting poor numbers is a losing strategy in the long haul despite the interloper’s ignorant musings.
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this might help explain why a modest bet on travis to win the heisman at long odds drew a flag from the casino book
 
LesGrossman said:
Not to mention he was the “unnamed” coach that talked a bunch of **** in the off-season + he was a bitch to DNVR about Prime at media day

Oregon and (all 0 of their natties) is ****ed
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Do we know that? I always assumed it was probably him.
 
LesGrossman said:
Not to mention he was the “unnamed” coach that talked a bunch of **** in the off-season + he was a bitch to DNVR about Prime at media day

Oregon and (all 0 of their natties) is ****ed
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Yeah is this actually confirmed?
 
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