Concerns Over Class Balance

[RumblinBuff]

I know nothing.

 

[RumblinBuff]

I thought we had a silent agreement not to discuss the potential transfers. *sticks head back in the sand*

 

[BehindEnemyLines]

I think there are a lot of "ifs". So, I'll play devil's advocate and add a few more.


What if there isn't attrition? I realize that it's more likely to happen than not, but it doesn't mean it's a lock. Where do we stand then? We'd have a roster with almost half the players in one class, and very few schollies to hand out over the next 2 years.

What if the incoming players do not want to red-shirt? It is their option, correct? The coaches may strongly recommend that a player use the redshirt year, but the player doesn't have to do that if they don't want to.


Just lookin' at all sides.

 

[Buffnik]

I think there are a lot of "ifs". So, I'll play devil's advocate and add a few more.


What if there isn't attrition? I realize that it's more likely to happen than not, but it doesn't mean it's a lock. Where do we stand then? We'd have a roster with almost half the players in one class, and very few schollies to hand out over the next 2 years.

What if the incoming players do not want to red-shirt? It is their option, correct? The coaches may strongly recommend that a player use the redshirt year, but the player doesn't have to do that if they don't want to.


Just lookin' at all sides.

Redshirting is not a player option. The coach determines playing time. However, a player can certainly make it clear that he's not going to be a happy camper if redshirted and a coach who doesn't listen runs the risk of losing the player to transfer.

 

[mattrob]

I think there are a lot of "ifs". So, I'll play devil's advocate and add a few more.


What if there isn't attrition? I realize that it's more likely to happen than not, but it doesn't mean it's a lock. Where do we stand then? We'd have a roster with almost half the players in one class, and very few schollies to hand out over the next 2 years.

What if the incoming players do not want to red-shirt? It is their option, correct? The coaches may strongly recommend that a player use the redshirt year, but the player doesn't have to do that if they don't want to.


Just lookin' at all sides.

Well, if a 6th player is signed this year, I'd take it as a pretty good indication that the staff expects attrition. They have a shot at some very good talent in the 13 class and I don't think they'd throw the opportunity away. I do have some concerns that this year's class may be a little big, but the more this is discussed, the more I believe we put the best possible team on he floor next year to kept the momentum building. That really should be the priority right now.

 

[AeroBuff99]

This is the lineup we're looking at next year - assuming that we have zero attrition (note: I used Tayler as our sixth recruit, but it could easily be Marvelle Harris or Chris Jones or someone we don't know about could be that sixth). Honestly, there's a lot of speculation about players leaving, but it doesn't affect next year's numbers anyway, so I'm keeping everyone on. Honestly, I think Nik's lineup is pretty dead-on for next year, so we probably won't see many minutes for Shannon, Ben Mills, Talton/Tayler and Jenkins. Two of the frosh will redshirt, and for the purpose of this exercise I think it will be Jenkins and Talton (note: I'm incredibly high on Talton and think he's going to be a steal, but it might take him a year to adjust to the speed of the PAC-12). So what does that lead to for the next season?

Is Chen a scholarship or walk-on for next year?? If he is a scholarship player, we would be at our limit of 13 next year if there is no attrition and we don't sign anyone in the spring period.

As far as Talton is concerned, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up with significant playing time next year. It should be an interesting 4A tourney with Scott, Gordon, and Talton all having legitimate shots at leading their teams to the title.

 

[BehindEnemyLines]

Redshirting is not a player option. The coach determines playing time. However, a player can certainly make it clear that he's not going to be a happy camper if redshirted and a coach who doesn't listen runs the risk of losing the player to transfer.

That's interesting Nik. Everything I've ever heard was that redshirting was a mutual endeavor. I'm sure most of the coaches can be very persuasive in the matter, and virtually all players who do r/s gain from it. Just the first time I've seen someone say that it's not optional.

 

[azbuff]

There have been a lot of people (myself included), concerned over the thought of CU giving out a sixth scholarship to the class of 2012. With 'Nik's post yesterday, it seems like a given that we will have a sixth member of this recruiting class, so I thought I'd take a look over the roster and see if we're freaking out over nothing or if we should be concerned.

Note: the players listed on here who have not committed or signed LOI's with the Buffs are purely speculation on my part. I tried to use common sense, taking in to account our team needs and players that are supposedly high on us. So while I am cautiously optimistic about some of the players I put down, others are pure guesses. I also removed all walk-ons. No offense to the Beaus, but this is purely about scholarships, and honestly I doubt they get much PT in the future anyway (would love to be proven wrong on that one guys, so keep working).

2012-13 Buffs (6 incoming freshmen)

Position	Senior​	Junior​	Sophomore​	Freshman​
PG		Shannon Sharpe*	Spencer Dinwiddie	Xavier Talton Brendyn Tayler
SG	Sabatino Chen*		Askia Booker
SF		Andre Roberson Jeremy Adams*		Chris Jenkins Xavier Johnson
PF				Wesley Gordon
C		Shane Harris-Tunks* Ben Mills		Josh Scott

This is the lineup we're looking at next year - assuming that we have zero attrition (note: I used Tayler as our sixth recruit, but it could easily be Marvelle Harris or Chris Jones or someone we don't know about could be that sixth). Honestly, there's a lot of speculation about players leaving, but it doesn't affect next year's numbers anyway, so I'm keeping everyone on. Honestly, I think Nik's lineup is pretty dead-on for next year, so we probably won't see many minutes for Shannon, Ben Mills, Talton/Tayler and Jenkins. Two of the frosh will redshirt, and for the purpose of this exercise I think it will be Jenkins and Talton (note: I'm incredibly high on Talton and think he's going to be a steal, but it might take him a year to adjust to the speed of the PAC-12). So what does that lead to for the next season?

2013-14 Buffs (2 incoming freshmen)

Position	Senior​	Junior​	Sophomore​	Freshman​
PG		Spencer Dinwiddie	Brendyn Tayler	Jaron Hopkins Xavier Talton*
SG		Askia Booker
SF	Andre Roberson Jeremy Adams*		Xavier Johnson	Chris Jenkins*
PF			Wesley Gordon
C	Shane Harris-Tunks*		Josh Scott	Torren Jones

Sharpe and Mills are gone freeing up two scholarships to use on the class of 2013. Sharpe is due to his knees, and Mills is due to wanting more PT. Roberson is also an early entry for the draft concern, but I wanted to keep him because it makes the hypothetical team more dangerous. This is my post, let me be. Talton and Jenkins have redshirted. For recruiting, we brought in Hopkins & Jones, which is my #1 dream for 2013 that doesn't involve Isaac Hamilton (note: it wouldn't surprise me if Dakarai Allen is a Buff in 2013 either. Keep an eye on him as he fits the Boyle profile perfectly). With those changes, all of a sudden you're starting to see a lot more balance in between the classes. I'm incredibly nervous about the thinness of our front court, but this is hypothetical, so I'm now officially worrying over nothing.

2014-15 Buffs (3 incoming freshmen)

Position	Senior​	Junior​	Sophomore​	Freshman ​
PG	Spencer Dinwiddie	Brendyn Tayler	Jaron Hopkins Xavier Talton*	Dominique Collier
SG	Askia Booker			Josh Perkins
SF		Xavier Johnson	Chris Jenkins*
PF		Wesley Gordon		Jack Williams
C		Josh Scott	Torren Jones

Three years from now, our classes are almost perfectly balanced. And honestly, if Josh Scott is as good as many think he could be (or XJ), we may have three scholarships to use on the class of 2015. So does this mean that the six recruits in one year plan is completely foolproof? Hell no. There are still lots of things that could change and we could end up with a serious backlog of players in one class. But I can see what Boyle & Co are trying to do here, and it makes sense. The lesson in all of this? Tad Boyle is a motherf**king mad scientist, and we should all stop questioning him.

In a side note, if we can land the players that are listed on this depth chart, the Buffs are going to be VERY good and will be a consistent top 20-30 program that has a sweet 16 run or two in them.

:gobuffs:

Fantastic post, Goose. rep sent.

 

[Goose]

BTW, Yung tweeted the following yesterday:

Boyle on signing an additional recruit for 2012: "We're certainly looking at it." he expects that decision to be made after current season.

Expect CU to look into the JC and transfer markets for an addition as well, in response to class balance.

 

[Darth Snow]

BTW, Yung tweeted the following yesterday:

Yung just posted an article which goes more in depth, with a great tidbit about Ski.

“We’ll see what happens, you’re always preparing yourself in case what if scenarios arise,” Boyle said. “That’s something we’ll decide shortly after the season is over with.

“We’d be very concerned with (class balance). We might look at more unconventional ways of recruiting, transfers that might have some exception to play right away. We’ll look at all angles.”

http://buffscoop.com/forum/showthread.php?t=15664

 

[Buffnik]

I'd ****ing love to get a senior PG or sharpshooter who could play immediately. I'd much rather see that than another freshman.

 

[Goose]

I'd ****ing love to get a senior PG or sharpshooter who could play immediately. I'd much rather see that than another freshman.

Agreed. We have a young team next year and could use a Carlon Brown-type to come in and help guide the ship a bit.

I'm a little nervous about our frontcourt depth too. Hopefully we start seeing some more big men's names pop up on the 2013 recruiting index.

 

[jgisland]

Agreed. We have a young team next year and could use a Carlon Brown-type to come in and help guide the ship a bit.

I'm a little nervous about our frontcourt depth too. Hopefully we start seeing some more big men's names pop up on the 2013 recruiting index.

Agreed, front-court depth and a shooter are the 2 biggest holes for next year IMO.

(BTW, great first post goose. ymssr).

 

[mattrob]

Agreed. We have a young team next year and could use a Carlon Brown-type to come in and help guide the ship a bit.

I'm a little nervous about our frontcourt depth too. Hopefully we start seeing some more big men's names pop up on the 2013 recruiting index.

Yeah, a one year bridge to that 2013 class would be ideal. I'd prefer it be a guard though. I think the frontcourt will be ok with Gordon, Scott, Dre and then SHT hopefully showing some improvement as he gets further out from his surgery.

 

[dyemeduke]

hmm...the way I read the Boyle quote is that he's heard some things about someone maybe wanting to transfer or sit out, etc.

Goose - great post, but yeah, this thread has a lot of speculation on what may or may not happen. It's hard to say...so I just hope Tad keeps winning. I will quietly disagree with signing another freshman though...regardless if anyone transfers out.

 

[Buffnik]

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/news?slug=ap-graduatetransfers-list

Players who played Division I basketball last year and are now playing at another D-I school this season as a graduate transfer (with previous school in parentheses):

Olu Ashaolu, Oregon (Louisiana Tech) - F averaging 8.2ppg / 4.7rpg
Michael Bizoukas, Missouri State (DePaul)
Anthony Breeze, Bethune-Cookman (Appalachian State)
Lee Fisher, Chicago State (Northern Illinois)
Trevor Gaskins, Louisiana Tech (Mississippi)
George Goode, Fairleigh Dickinson (Louisville)
Garrett Green, San Diego State (LSU) - F averaging 6.3ppg / 4.8 rpg
Alex Johnson, N.C. State (Cal State Bakersfield) - G averaging 4.7ppg / 3.1 apg
Pierre Jordan, Georgia Tech (Florida State)
DaQuan Joyner, Texas Southern (East Carolina)
Joe Latas, Houston Baptist (Cleveland State)
Sam Maniscalco, Illinois (Bradley) - G averaging 6.9ppg / 2.0rpg / 2.5apg
Jeff Peterson, Florida State (Arkansas) - G averaging 3.4ppg / 2.0apg
Andre Walker, Xavier (Vanderbilt) - F averaging 5.6ppg / 5.9rpg / 2.0apg
Brandon Wood, Michigan State (Valparaiso) - G averaging 8.3ppg / 2.9rpg / 2.2apg

I added in stats for the guys who transferred into major programs. It looks like there are opportunities to find productive players who add depth and possibly start. We're not going to find superstars this way, but we can definitely find guys who could help us win. Problem is, there may only be 5-10 guys in this category who are Pac-12 caliber players so it's hard to land one.

 

[Buffnik]

Great article on Graduate Transfers: http://www.therepublic.com/view/story/e57a4871bfe04bff9c206670290f632b/BKC-Graduate-Transfers/

 

[Goose]

There have been a lot of people (myself included), concerned over the thought of CU giving out a sixth scholarship to the class of 2012. With 'Nik's post yesterday, it seems like a given that we will have a sixth member of this recruiting class, so I thought I'd take a look over the roster and see if we're freaking out over nothing or if we should be concerned.

Note: the players listed on here who have not committed or signed LOI's with the Buffs are purely speculation on my part. I tried to use common sense, taking in to account our team needs and players that are supposedly high on us. So while I am cautiously optimistic about some of the players I put down, others are pure guesses. I also removed all walk-ons. No offense to the Beaus, but this is purely about scholarships, and honestly I doubt they get much PT in the future anyway (would love to be proven wrong on that one guys, so keep working).

2012-13 Buffs (6 incoming freshmen)

Position	Senior​	Junior​	Sophomore​	Freshman​
PG		Shannon Sharpe*	Spencer Dinwiddie	Eli Stalzer Xavier Talton
SG	Sabatino Chen*		Askia Booker
SF		Andre Roberson Jeremy Adams*		Chris Jenkins Xavier Johnson
PF				Wesley Gordon
C		Shane Harris-Tunks* Ben Mills		Josh Scott

This is the lineup we're looking at next year - assuming that we have zero attrition. Honestly, there's a lot of speculation about players leaving, but it doesn't affect next year's numbers anyway, so I'm keeping everyone on. Honestly, I think Nik's lineup is pretty dead-on for next year, so we probably won't see many minutes for Shannon, Ben Mills, Talton/Stalzer and Jenkins. Two of the frosh will redshirt, and for the purpose of this exercise I think it will be Jenkins and Stalzer. So what does that lead to for the next season?

2013-14 Buffs (2 incoming freshmen)

Position	Senior​	Junior​	Sophomore​	Freshman​
PG		Spencer Dinwiddie	Xavier Talton	Jaron Hopkins Eli Stalzer*
SG		Askia Booker
SF	Andre Roberson Jeremy Adams*		Xavier Johnson	Chris Jenkins*
PF			Wesley Gordon
C	Shane Harris-Tunks*		Josh Scott	Torren Jones

Sharpe and Mills are gone freeing up two scholarships to use on the class of 2013. Sharpe is due to his knees, and Mills is due to wanting more PT. Roberson is also an early entry for the draft concern, but I wanted to keep him because it makes the hypothetical team more dangerous. This is my post, let me be. Stalzer and Jenkins have redshirted. For recruiting, we brought in Hopkins & Jones, which is my #1 dream for 2013 that doesn't involve Isaac Hamilton (note: it wouldn't surprise me if Dakarai Allen is a Buff in 2013 either. Keep an eye on him as he fits the Boyle profile perfectly). With those changes, all of a sudden you're starting to see a lot more balance in between the classes. I'm incredibly nervous about the thinness of our front court, but this is hypothetical, so I'm now officially worrying over nothing.

2014-15 Buffs (3 incoming freshmen)

Position	Senior​	Junior​	Sophomore​	Freshman ​
PG	Spencer Dinwiddie	Xavier Talton	Jaron Hopkins Eli Stalzer*	Dominique Collier
SG	Askia Booker			Josh Perkins
SF		Xavier Johnson	Chris Jenkins*
PF		Wesley Gordon		Jack Williams
C		Josh Scott	Torren Jones

Three years from now, our classes are almost perfectly balanced. And honestly, if Josh Scott is as good as many think he could be (or XJ), we may have three scholarships to use on the class of 2015. So does this mean that the six recruits in one year plan is completely foolproof? Hell no. There are still lots of things that could change and we could end up with a serious backlog of players in one class. But I can see what Boyle & Co are trying to do here, and it makes sense. The lesson in all of this? Tad Boyle is a motherf**king mad scientist, and we should all stop questioning him.

In a side note, if we can land the players that are listed on this depth chart, the Buffs are going to be VERY good and will be a consistent top 20-30 program that has a sweet 16 run or two in them.

:gobuffs:

Edited to reflect Stalzer committment.

 

[HawaiiBUFF]

If Shannon + Ben transfer, will that leave us with two scholarships for next year? I am just confused by some on the messages coming from people. Some are saying we are over one with Stalzer and some are saying we still have three for next year. Can someone please quickly clarify for me, thanks!

 

[mattrob]

If Shannon + Ben transfer, will that leave us with two scholarships for next year? I am just confused by some on the messages coming from people. Some are saying we are over one with Stalzer and some are saying we still have three for next year. Can someone please quickly clarify for me, thanks!

We currently have 13 (the limit) under scholarship. Any available 2013 scholarships will only open up through attrition.

 

[Buffnik]

If Shannon + Ben transfer, will that leave us with two scholarships for next year? I am just confused by some on the messages coming from people. Some are saying we are over one with Stalzer and some are saying we still have three for next year. Can someone please quickly clarify for me, thanks!

2013 roster (scholarship only)

Seniors (1): Sabatino Chen*
Juniors (5): Jeremy Adams, Ben Mills**, Andre Roberson***, Shannon Sharpe**, Shane Harris-Tunks
Sophomores (2): Askia Booker, Spencer Dinwiddie
Freshmen (6): Wesley Gordon, Chris Jenkins****, Xavier Johnson, Josh Scott, Eli Stalzer, Xavier Talton****

13 scholarships are available for Men's Basketball. The addition of Stalzer puts us at 14.

* Chen is on a year-to-year scholarship agreement (verbally understood from the beginning that he'd only be on scholarship if we were under 13 and had an extra to apply to him). Chen may not be on scholarship for the 2012-13 season. But if he is, his scholarship is available to sign someone for the 2013 class.

** Mills and Sharpe have been talked about as potential transfers. If either or both transfer, it opens up 2013 scholarship offers. If one transfers, that scholarship opening makes room for us to keep Chen on scholarship next year. If both transfer, we can keep Chen on scholarship or have room to add a graduate transfer as a mercenary for next season.

*** Roberson may opt for the NBA after next season. If he does, that opens up a scholarship for 2013. We would be looking at a spring addition to the 2013 class since we wouldn't know if it would be open during the early signing period this November.

**** Jenkins and Talton are considered the most likely incoming freshmen to redshirt. If they do, we'll add them to another 2 recruits for 2013 (3 if Dre leaves early) and end up with 5 freshmen on the roster for the 2013-14 season.

Obviously, there are still a lot of moving parts to this. But even with bringing in 6 this year I'm not concerned about class balance because I think we're going to see significant attrition from next year's projected junior class along with some freshman redshirting.

 

[mattrob]

I know there's been a lot of talk about the Stalzer commitment and I've given my opinion that I'd rather save the scholly. I thought I'd expand a little here.

First, this really has nothing to do with what Stalzer can/can't do. While he certainly didn't stand out when I watched Mater Dei, it was only one game, and I like the highlights. I agree that he'll be more of a "glue" player than a star, but that's fine, you need those role players. I've also come around on class balance somewhat, thanks to Goose's posts. But I still don't like the signing, and the way it positions us for the next 2 classes.

My first issue is that Talton and Stalzer both seem to profile as decent starters or solid reserves at the PG position. Stalzer may be able to play a little 2, but neither seems to be a rising star. There's also a very good chance that one of the two redshirts. This seems to be poor roster management, imo, as I really think there will be more talented players available in 2013 that will be ready to go right away. To me, this comes across as an admission that Talton likely won't be able to contribute next year.

Also, looking at the projected 2012 roster, we'll have 8 Freshmen or Sophomores on the roster, 4 Guards, 2 wings, and 2 bigs. We'll then have 5 scholarships to use in '13 and '14. Right now, it looks like it'll probably be 3 in 2013, then 2 in 2014, but that can change, as it's all based on attrition. With the current numbers, we'll need a MINIMUM of 2 bigs and a wing, leaving 2 spots open for guards, at most, in the next two classes. I really think Dakari Allen may be the first '13 commit, and hopefully one of Torren Jones, Marcus Lee, or Jordan Bell is also in that class. That would leave one BPA scholarship available. It could be a 2nd big, Jaron Hopkins, Paul Watson, or, hopefully, Isaac Hamilton. If it's anything other than a big though, that would seem to leave only spot open for a guard in 2014, when we may see the best in-state class in years with Collier, Perkins, and Foster. Unless we want to run with only 3 bigs on the roster, we may only be able to take one of those three, which would be an absolute shame, considering we seem to be in good shape with them right now.

In the end, this may all be moot with more attrition, etc., but given the potential talent we're in on at guard and the wing the next two years (Hopkins, Watson, Hamilton, Allen, Stanley Johnson, Zach LaVine, Collier, Perkins, Foster, etc.), this just seems to be poor roster management to me. We'll be loaded with decent, but unspectacular guards, and may have to pass on superior talent in coming classes. The staff just acted like this scholarship was burning a hole in their pockets, and they HAD to use it this year. I can't fault much of what Boyle's done, but I really don't like this. The program is on the verge of something HUGE, but this is the action of a coach trying to survive, not hit a HR. Anyway, I wish Stalzer the best, and I think this makes us marginally better in 2012, but really hope it doesn't come back to bite us in a year or two.

 

[buffted]

What confuses me more than the class balance is that is seems like Boyle is all of the sudden insistent on taking in guys that even the mid majors don't seem to be taking risks on. When were in on 3 or 4 of the top 10 shooting guards next year, and we could probably bring in a top 100 guy at point guard next year as well as maybe another big, its frustrating to see scholarships gone to multiple guys that will likely get minimal minutes. I could see taking in these guys if Boyle felt they could contribute right away, but I really don't see some of our less recruited guys getting many minutes next year or ever. It seems like Boyle wants to find multiple diamond in the rough kind of guys, and I just don't know how to justify recruiting so many guys that are this risky when we have a strong shot at some of the strongest guys in the west for future classes.. Only thing I can think is that maybe the deal with Talton and Stalzer is that they are coming to CU to contribute what they can at PG next year, as well as get publicity so they can transfer out after their freshman seasons.

 

[sackman]

My biggest issue with this is the opportunity cost involved. The scholarship we give to Stalzer is a scholarship we won't be able to give to somebody else - somebody who could be a difference maker. Unless Boyle really feels that Stalzer is a difference maker (something I kind of doubt, frankly), then I have to wonder about this decision.

 

[Buffnik]

My biggest issue with this is the opportunity cost involved. The scholarship we give to Stalzer is a scholarship we won't be able to give to somebody else - somebody who could be a difference maker. Unless Boyle really feels that Stalzer is a difference maker (something I kind of doubt, frankly), then I have to wonder about this decision.

I hear that.

The other side of the coin is "time value". Having a deeper bench, more talent and better practices for the next year has advantages too.

 

[mattrob]

The one thing I think we can safely say is that Tad will do anything he thinks may improve the team NOW. Like it or not, he's going to use every available resource and let things sort themselves out down the line.