Some more on Grayson
QB Rating vs. Team Rushing Attempts
The correlation is 42.93% so there's only a moderately weak relationship here. In the five games with the most rushing attempts since 2011 (where Grayson recorded a stat), here was his QB rating:
Rank | Year | Opposing Team | Rush Att | QB Rating | Result |
1 | 2013 | Boise State | 56 | 133.3 | L |
2 | 2013 | at Wyoming | 54 | 192.6 | W |
3 | 2011 | Wyoming | 51 | 84 | L |
4 | 2013 | Air Force | 49 | 203.2 | W |
5 | 2013 | at New Mexico | 49 | 197.4 | W |
| | Average | 52 | 162.1 | |
Bottom five games in terms of rushing attempts:
Rank | Year | Opposing Team | Rush Att | QB Rating | Result |
1 | 2012 | North Dakota St | 24 | 119.4 | L |
2 | 2012 | at San Jose St | 24 | 127.5 | L |
3 | 2012 | at Wyoming | 26 | 68 | L |
4 | 2013 | at Alabama | 26 | 113.6 | L |
5 | 2013 | San Jose St | 27 | 149.8 | L |
| | Average | 25 | 115.7 | |
There's a 28.65% difference in his average QB rating between the top and bottom 5 games for rushing attempts. There is a 50.97% difference between the average rushing attempts. The big take away here is that they have not won a game when they haven't had at least 34 rushing attempts, and even then when they have exactly 34 attempts they are 1-3, which tells me that Grayson doesn't have what it takes to take the team on his shoulders and win a game.
QB Rating vs. Team Rushing Yards
The correlation here is 62.73%, so there's a moderately strong relationship between the team's rushing yards and Grayson's QB rating.
Top 5 rushing yards:
Rank | Year | Opposing Team | Rush Yards | QB Rating | Result |
1 | 2013 | at New Mexico | 347 | 197.4 | W |
2 | 2013 | Nevada | 331 | 141 | W |
3 | 2011 | Air Force | 321 | 152.3 | L |
4 | 2013 | at Wyoming | 290 | 192.6 | W |
5 | 2011 | Wyoming | 263 | 84 | L |
| | Average | 310 | 153.2 | |
Bottom 5 rushing yards
Rank | Year | Opposing Team | Rush Yards | QB Rating | Result |
1 | | at Utah St | 38 | 62.4 | L |
2 | | at Alabama | 51 | 113.6 | L |
3 | | North Dakota St | 72 | 119.4 | L |
4 | | San Jose St | 89 | 127.5 | L |
5 | | Colorado | 94 | 99.7 | L |
| | Average | 68.8 | 104.5 | |
There's a 31.89% difference with this one, so a good amount more of variation when compared to rushing attempts. The 0-5 record when the ground game isn't working once again makes me jump to the conclusion that Grayson doesn't have what it takes to lead his team to victory without a strong running game. In games where CSU had less than 200 rushing yards, they are 1-11 with Grayson.
QB Rating vs. Yards Per Rush
The correlation here is 52.84%, so a moderate relationship that is stronger than rushing attempts but weaker than rushing yards.
Top 5 Yards Per Attempt
Rank | Year | Opposing Team | Yards/Attempt | QB Rating | Result |
1 | 2013 | Nevada | 8.9 | 141 | W |
2 | 2011 | San Diego St | 7.8 | 41.2 | L |
3 | 2013 | UTEP | 7.4 | 188.2 | W |
4 | 2013 | at New Mexico | 7.1 | 197.4 | W |
5 | 2011 | Air Force | 6.6 | 152.3 | L |
| | Average | 7.6 | 144 | |
Bottom 5 Yards Per Attempt
Rank | Year | Opposing Team | Yards/Attempt | QB Rating | Result |
1 | 2013 | at Utah St | 1.1 | 62.4 | L |
2 | 2013 | at Alabama | 2 | 113.6 | L |
3 | 2012 | Colorado | 2.8 | 167.3 | W |
4 | 2012 | North Dakota St | 3 | 119.4 | L |
5 | 2012 | Utah St | 3.1 | 118.5 | L |
| | Average | 2.4 | 116.2 | |
There's a 19.29% difference between the yards per attempt average. The 1-4 record is telling, once again. When CSU has averaged less than 5 yards per carry CSU is 4-11.
My take: Given the record of Grayson compared to rushing attempts, total rushing yards, and yards per rush of 6-25 that Grayson has yet to prove that he can lead his team to victory without a strong running game helping him. The sample size is 24 games, so it is relatively small but it still paints a good picture.