You might be right. UNC, USU, SJSU, UTEP, UNLV, WYO all should be wins, but will CSU lose at least two of those? Probably. USU might be a little stronger than expected, they play UTEP on the road, and Wyo punked them by 44 last year. There's no discounting just how horrible CSU looked against UNM. Zero improvement whatsoever. Still, no excuses for not getting to 6-6, they couldn't possibly keep Fairchild after that.
Once they lose a couple they might completely fall apart like they did last year and lose out.
By all rights Fairchild should have been fired after last year but CSU just doesn't have the money to buy him out. He might even survive another year like last year for that reason.