CU 16 Point Dog

[drew6236]

CU has covered in, I believe, 2 games this year. CSU and WVU. Regardless of the history, unless NU plays like poo, it's safe to say CU won't cover and I would put money on that.

 

[The Guest]

I think the line (CU + 15 to 16) is about right.

However, during the last few decades, whenever CU has been a huge underdog to Nebraska, it has usually been a close game (duh, they've almost all been close).

I specifically recall being double digit underdogs in 1986, 1997, 1999, 2001 and winning - I'm sure there are more such instances, but my point is that I'm not awed by the point spread in this game and I see the Buffs hanging tough and covering.

Didn't we lose in 99? 28 point 4th quarter, missed field goal, lost in overtime? Or was that 98? It's all getting muddled...

 

[The Guest]

CU has covered in, I believe, 2 games this year. CSU and WVU. Regardless of the history, unless NU plays like poo, it's safe to say CU won't cover and I would put money on that.

What was the line on OK State?

 

[Spider]

You bring up interesting point in post 24, but more careful examination should lead you to the conclusion that CU's inability to move the ball on offense was the culprit in all cases that you cite. No where does that post specify a good reason that nebraska would score 49 points. If it's a hunch, then fine, but you'll have to spell out your logic a little more clearly if it's based on something more rational.

Not a hunch, per se. Not scientific, either. It seems logical to me given what was going on with these two teams simultaneously during the second half of the football season.

A team-by-team analysis (commonly played teams) helps a bit, too. What we did to them was better than what you did: we scored against Mizzou, you didn't, we squashed KSU's defense, you didn't, we did much better against ISU in their house than you did with them in Boulder.. etc.

I think injuries has been your bugaboo; and I noticed some telling stats about that in a thread here posted a few days ago, although I can't recall exactly it seemed that the Buffs were the most injury affected team in the Big 12.

 

[BuffNut99]

I will also mention that (in my opinion) there is not that big of a divide between Nebraska and Colorado right now, despite what bowl-reservation-making Husker fans would have you think.

Nebraska has won 2 more games than Colorado and has played a far easier schedule. I don't think that Nebraska would have won @ Florida State, @ Kansas, vs. Texas (anywhere), vs. Oklahoma State, or vs. West Virginia. Instead, Nebraska has played San Jose St., New Mexico St., Central Michigan, and has not beaten anyone of signifigance so far this season. When they have played good teams, they have been absolutley crushed (35-0 Oklahoma in 1st quarter anyone?). Nebraska will have played EIGHT homes games this year - if CU had such scheduling moxy (or lack of scheduling guts), I think CU would be able to claim as many victories at this point. just sayin'

 

[The Guest]

Not a hunch, per se. Not scientific, either. It seems logical to me given what was going on with these two teams simultaneously during the second half of the football season.

A team-by-team analysis (commonly played teams) helps a bit, too. What we did to them was better than what you did: we scored against Mizzou, you didn't, we squashed KSU's defense, you didn't, we did much better against ISU in their house than you did with them in Boulder.. etc.

I think injuries has been your bugaboo; and I noticed some telling stats about that in a thread here posted a few days ago, although I can't recall exactly it seemed that the Buffs were the most injury affected team in the Big 12.

I feel like I'm not getting through here...

Yes, team-by-team analysis is fine. BUT you have to look at the scores, not just the gap in the scores (which you insist on doing). CU hasn't demonstrated an ability to move the ball against any Big XII opponent. That accounts for the score deficits. CU's defense has held many opponents to their lowest or second-lowest season scoring total. That's the rest of the story.

I haven't said that nebraska will or won't beat the spread. I don't have strong opinion on that. That's not what I'm talking about.

What I'm saying, is none of your analysis suggests nebraska should score 49 points. Make sense?

 

[Spider]

I feel like I'm not getting through here...

Yes, team-by-team analysis is fine. BUT you have to look at the scores, not just the gap in the scores (which you insist on doing). CU hasn't demonstrated an ability to move the ball against any Big XII opponent. That accounts for the score deficits. CU's defense has held many opponents to their lowest or second-lowest season scoring total. That's the rest of the story.

I haven't said that nebraska will or won't beat the spread. I don't have strong opinion on that. That's not what I'm talking about.

What I'm saying, is none of your analysis suggests nebraska should score 49 points. <b>Make sense?</b>

Sure does. And you're right, the points actually put up, irrespective of the difference is also a big factor.

I admit to focusing on the differences more than that.

Are we approaching

yet?

:lol:

 

[The Guest]

Sure does. And you're right, the points actually put up, irrespective of the difference is also a big factor.

I admit to focusing on the differences more than that.

Are we approaching

yet?

:lol:

We should have passed it, but sometimes the ****ing horse just won't die!

 

[drew6236]

What was the line on OK State?

Sorry 3 games. They did cover in Okie State game...BUT, those were all at "home". Yet to cover on the road though.

 

[drew6236]

I will also add though, people familiar with betting can attest to this as well, if the majority of the public is on one side of a game (i.e. Nebraska), then the other team usually covers. This doesn't happen ALL the time, but it is usually the case.

So if everybody is liking Nebraska...

I noted last night the line dropped to -15.5, it was back at -16 this morning, and is now at -16.5 which means the money so far is coming in on Nebraska.

 

[Crash Davis]

I'll watch what happens. I make it a habit to watch CU's televised road games. It will take a lot more than Hawk being pissed to win this game.

C'mon, don't you know all it takes to win a college football game is for the coach to be pissed!

Hey, I just thought of something! Our next coach should be DBT. :smile2::devil:

 

[Kameltosis]

Damn...that's a tough one...

I'd probly take NU but man I wouldn't want to actually place that bet

 

[Spider]

Pretty good article about Colorado's injury woes:

http://www.huskerextra.com/articles/2008/11/24/football/doc492a12a0252b0099429530.txt

I didn't realize how much of it happened early on.