This is something I have wondered as well. I always thought CU was a better fit culturally in the BIG (if given the option), but I would be over the moon with an SEC invite.
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CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues
- Thread starter InTheBuff
- Start date
I think that has to happen soon. the P2 will start implementing rules requiring their members to commit to a minimum annual spend in football, commit to minimum stadium size, etc... that will force the "free riders" to step up or step out.
Yeah, assuming the SEC is going to match whatever expansion the B1G does, I don't see FSU or Clemson going anywhere but the SEC. UNC is probably more likely to go to the B1G, along with Miami, as I don't think the SEC will care to have 3 FL programs, although, maybe they want to block any kind of recruiting in roads into Florida from the B1G.
B1G goes with Notre Dame, UNC, Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Cal as the surefire next 6 that I don't think would be candidates for the SEC one way or another. Maybe UNC would, but they seem like a much better fit in the B1G. With 2 spots remaining, there's Utah, Virginia, Miami, Arizona, GT and CU that are probably the candidates logical candidates. I would like to say CU and Utah bring the markets and MTZ, along with being travel partners, a bridge to the West Coast, and would form a nice clean 8 team "West Division" with the CA and OR/WA schools.
In that scenario, the SEC would then go Clemson, FSU, Miami, and ASU (gets ESPN/SEC expanding West into a big market) to get to 20 and still have 4 spots to fill between Virginia, Oklahoma State, Arizona, GT, SDSU, Pitt, WVU, and VT. Feels like UVA has been mentioned as a sure fire expansion candidate for someone. Would the SEC want to encroach on B1G country by going up to Pitt? Give ASU a travel partner and add to their MBB portfolio with Arizona? Do they try to get a foothold into CA with SDSU? Those 4 would probably be my choice, but I guess they could further saturate the South with adding GT or bringing the WVU/Pitt rivalry to the SEC.
I think the SEC would consider AZ - particularly ASU.
Their focus, I believe, is going to be getting into NC & VA plus extracting full value and market ownership of the southern US while the B1G does the same in the northern US.
based on an assumption that both conferences will end up with the same number of members. what's the rationale for that assumption?
josef
Club Member
Starting to feel like this is going to be split on the Mason Dixon line....
Because I think they will continue to match each other like they have been doing with the end goal to have an NFL model of two conferences and eventually a 16 team playoff (8 from each comferemce) with winner from B1G playing winner of SEC for CFP Champ
Regarding the state of Florida, I can't imagine that with the population, talent, and brand prestige that the SEC (and ESPN) would be all that opposed to having 3 members from that state.
I'm hoping that when this fully shakes out that we end up with regional separation between the 2 conferences.
And I think that to really capture the country it would take two 28-team conferences for 56 total.
I'm hoping that when this fully shakes out that we end up with regional separation between the 2 conferences.
And I think that to really capture the country it would take two 28-team conferences for 56 total.
If the SEC wants to expand West, I think ASU and maybe SDSU are prime targets. Big markets, gets them into CA for the recruiting and PTZ for night inventory. Of course, I imagine they would like more than just those two being their entire West footprint, so maybe they look for Arizona if the B1G doesn't take them, likewise with either/both CU or Utah, again depending on the B1G.
As far as the B1G, I think their power programs would LOVE to get a foothold in the South for recruiting, especially if this ends up in an NFL style model of two 24 team leagues. Either that, or the B1G might also decide to add TCU or Baylor simply to get into Texas.
I don't think the B1G can remain competitive with the SEC if it doesn't get a presence in FL, GA or TX somehow, which is why I think they would go after Miami or maybe GT.
The biggest obstacle to any further expansion right now is that Notre Dame is the only property left that would allow for adding another slice to the conference media revenue pie while also making the existing 16 slices bigger.
You know what would have been ideal? If we followed the HS model used in most states and the B1G & SEC split the country into 2 public school conferences of 24 teams each.
Then, we add a private school conference as the 3rd major led by ND, USC and Miami. I think you could get to 16 if you included the service academies.
64 total teams would be a nice number.
You know what would have been ideal? If we followed the HS model used in most states and the B1G & SEC split the country into 2 public school conferences of 24 teams each.
Then, we add a private school conference as the 3rd major led by ND, USC and Miami. I think you could get to 16 if you included the service academies.
64 total teams would be a nice number.
241Volcanos
Well-Known Member
Why not take UW/UO/ASU/CU if doing that?
I was thinking UW and UO are long gone to Big10. Maybe the SEC would want to be in So Cal ??
I've seen zero reason to think that the B1G and SEC are cooperating, never mind colluding.
I am in favor of Mutually Assured Destruction vis a vis the B1G and the SEC.
Fogo
Well-Known Member
Or the MWC in 5. Everytime someone here mentions B1G or the SEC there are other foorball forums laughing at us.
Only reason why I'd want Big Ten is that we would play Nebraska every year again.
SEC if the AZ schools & Utah are involved. Otherwise just go straight to the Big 12. UA, ASU, Utah, BYU, KU, KSU, TT, OSU, and ISU would be a nice group of schools to play even if there is WVU, BU, UH, TCU, UCF, and Cincy.
If none of that, I'd suggest that we go to the AAC with AFA & CSU (who nearly joined that conference). We'd be able to go to some good recruiting grounds which the MWC wouldn't be able to give us.
SEC if the AZ schools & Utah are involved. Otherwise just go straight to the Big 12. UA, ASU, Utah, BYU, KU, KSU, TT, OSU, and ISU would be a nice group of schools to play even if there is WVU, BU, UH, TCU, UCF, and Cincy.
If none of that, I'd suggest that we go to the AAC with AFA & CSU (who nearly joined that conference). We'd be able to go to some good recruiting grounds which the MWC wouldn't be able to give us.
That's because the last 4 schools to move have been 3 blue bloods and another premier institution in the second largest media market in the country. The current mindset is fixated on which brands are the best and who are the immediate attractive additions. What we're talking about is who else is included in a world 5-7 years from now, when FOX and ESPN have decided to go full NFL model with two conferences, and how many total teams? If they stop at 40 total, CU on the outside. If they go to 48 total, CU probably gets included to account for one of the largest and fastest growing markets. Anything more than that, and CU is a lock.
It doesn’t make sense to me that any expanding conference would base their decision on those factors alone. There are many equally important criteria that come to mind.Some number crunching from 538:
Where Should The Big Ten Expand Next? We Crunched The Numbers.
Which schools should the Big Ten poach next?fivethirtyeight.com
For the SEC's last 4 slots in your scenario, NC State would be at least as good if not better candidate than Pitt or WV.
I don’t disagree with you but still see that as a temporary solution. As Nik pointed out, the cfb endgame is SEC/B1G and everyone else. So if we don’t end up in those two eventually, I’m not sure how much it matters where we end up
Fogo
Well-Known Member
Just using the largest and fastest growing market as the reason why we get in is the same as using the Flatirons to me. People still want to see good football and no one outside of the hard core CU fans in the largest and fastest growing market gives a sheet about CU. Available eyes vs actual eyes has to matter at some point when you are on the fence. Selling actual eyes to advertisers has to count in the discussion
I was mostly going off the 538 article that had NC State in the lowest tier. I take that article with a grain of salt, of course
Which ones specifically do you think aren't applicable? Fit? Academic / cultural? Market? Athletic success? Those were all included.
The author started out by saying he was explicitly throwing out geography as a criteria, because any conference with both Rutgers and USC obviously doesn't care too much about geography.
CU had the 13th most 1m+ viewer games of any non B1G/SEC/OU/UT/USC/UCLA program in the country between 2015-2019 and 2021. One team ahead of them in that group was Washington State, which isn't going to be considered for expansion, even though they've been relatively decent on the field (they play a lot of night games which boosted their numbers). So in terms of viewership, there's an argument that CU is 12th best among the remaining programs that would be considered for expansion into the two leagues, which is quite amazing, when you consider that they've been relegated to the Pac12 network A LOT over that time.
For as bad as CU has been in modern CFB, it's still a brand that people recognize and tune in for when they play good teams and aren't relegated to the Pac 12.
I admit I didn’t thoroughly read the article and was referring to the chart.
Largest school in NC and more passionate about football than UNC.
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You’re a ****ing idiot.