I agree that it will eventually be the P2, but that doesn't mean anything w/r/t dropping football. There are still G5, FCS, D2, and D3 programs that exist in the current environment and a Pac 10 at 20m/year payouts still dwarfs the current G5 conferences. Assuming CU doesn't get the invite to the P2, they will settle with the other 24ish programs from the P10, B12, ACC leftovers.Unfortunately the future of CU football and athletics is no longer in the hands of CU. People scoff at the idea of dropping football but that may be on the table within the next 5 years. If the PAC 12 TV deal is in the range of $20 million per year than CU will have to consider options which may include dropping to a Mountain West type conference and the PAC might already be there. It is becoming clearer the narrative of the Power 5 conferences is going by the wayside. It is becoming the Power 2 with another tier falling below that. The Big 10 is talking about $100 M per school per year payout. There is no way that PAC schools can compete with that with a $20 M payout per school.
Schools like CU are going to have to reevaluate how much they spend. Pac 12 schools will not be able to pay the Salaries to coaches that Big 10 schools do. There is going to have to be shift from what the system is today. I believe adding more schools removes more money than it adds.
What I hope happens (and this is really a hope) is the Big 10 decides to tie up the major TV markets in the west and invite CU, UW, ASU, and Stanford. That gives them Denver, Seattle, Phoenix and Bay Area TV markets. Oregon has been good but lacks a major TV market. Other than that type of scenario, CU is toast. Big12 or the Pac makes no difference as the money differential between those conferences and the Power 2 is too great to compete with.
CU football is dying and fans are worried about road trip quality.