CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues

[rosstr]

Because which schools are getting invited to the SEC or B1G? As is, including us (and that's being generous), there's maaaaaaybe two schools that would bring enough revenue to make it worth the SEC/ B1G's time.

When the networks decide to kill off the rest of the Big12, Pac12 and ACC, they will only have to split all of college football into two massive pies. More than enough money will be ‘created’ by diverting it from the rest of college athletics, in a similar math exercise that Buffnik outlined from ESPN.

 

[BerkeleyBuff]

When the networks decide to kill off the rest of the Big12, Pac12 and ACC, they will only have to split all of college football into two massive pies. Similar math that ESPN evaluated in Niks post. More than enough money will be created by diverting it from the rest of college athletics.

So your argument is that media will stop paying any non-SEC/ B1G team at all. Ok. The issues with that claim are a bit too many to get into, so believe as you wish.

 

[rosstr]

So your argument is that media will stop paying any non-SEC/ B1G team at all. Ok. The issues with that claim are a bit too many to get into, so believe as you wish.

We are witnessing this very concept play out in real time with the Big12 vs Pac12. This is ESPNs calculated play to avoid paying for the entire remaining 10 pac in favor of paying just 4 of them in a reconstituted Conference USA

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

I probably missed it, but are we assuming CU had to sign up for that 99 year agreement with this move (and any other schools added would as well)? If the end game for CU is trying to position ourselves for a P2 move if the option is there at the end of this media rights term, that is going to make it a hell of a lot tougher. It’s still a huge chunk of change to come up with and amortized over the term of the Big12 deal that’s like $14M per year. So we must feel really positive that the value to CU being in the Big12 compared to the PAC (media deal, exposure, recruiting, time zones, etc.) is significantly more valuable than $14M per season better.

It hasn’t really been mentioned but I think at this point, you kind of have to assume CU is subject to the same exit fee.

However, some numbers being floated for the Pac 12 media number are $20m/year, so CU is possibly making $70-$80m more in the Big 12 over the next 7 years from media rights alone, so already they are close to 70-80% of break even for the exit fee.

Let’s say they get invited to the B1G at even a 2/3 payout to what those teams are likely making next round (~$60m for media). They are still going to come out ahead and be in a better financial position after only a couple years.

 

[Uncle Ken]

Y’all doubted me. Based on the poll numbers on another thread, the Baylor hate is real. Look forward to it. Hope y’all beat the horned frogs this year.

And I hope that Ken Starr reaches up from the very depths of hell, and creates a massive sinkhole that sucks bailer university with its Southern Baptist slavery and institutionally protected rape and murder down into the fiery depths.

 

[Uncle Ken]

Being in the PAC was soul sucking due to that apathy from the Bay Area schools and this is from someone who grew up with the Big 8 especially CU & OU. Apathy is an alien concept for any Big 8 school.

I still hope UA, ASU, UO, OSU, UW, WSU, and UU end up in better conference homes while the CA schools can burn in hell.

I am not 100% happy with the move back to a different Big 12 but I am relieved to be back in a conference that is viewed as more caring towards athletics. I know we have our differences of opinions over how to view Baylor but I still want to see CU beat Baylor up.

I don't disagree that this move is bittersweet but it's good to be home!

My joke was about my hope that you would abandon college football and go do something else, and I get this? ****. I guess I deserved it.

 

[Burrito]

And I hope that Ken Starr reaches up from the very depths of hell, and creates a massive sinkhole that sucks bailer university with its Southern Baptist slavery and institutionally protected rape and murder down into the fiery depths.

You keeping your screen name has really paid off! Prescient!

 

[Uncle Ken]

You keeping your screen name has really paid off! Prescient!

I'm playing the long game. Sinkholes take time.

 

[BerkeleyBuff]

We are witnessing this very concept play out in real time with the Big12 vs Pac12. This is ESPNs calculated play to avoid paying for the entire remaining 10 pac in favor of paying just 4 of them in a reconstituted Conference USA

We're seeing ESPN trim the fat perhaps. Yet they're still paying well for the Big XII + friends. In your argument they have no incentive to pay the current Big XII anything since they have the SEC and B1G. So already your argument fails. ESPN doesn't like to overpay, but if you whittled college football down to the 24 best teams (as an example), that's still not enough content for ESPN/ Fox/ etc to remain happy.

 

[InTheBuff]

If the PAC wants to survive they will have to think way outside the box. The MWC exit fees are $34 million per school. No way SDSU, csu, Fresno or Boise can come up with that.

Some circles are saying they need to form an Eastern Division and invite
USF, Tulane, SMU, Memphis, Rice for instance.

If Oregon, Washington, Arizona, ASU and Utah are all gone, would adding these Eastern schools keep the PAC in its P5 status ? Yuck.

Once Zona goes BIG12 all hell will break loose.

 

[MiamiBuffs]

Let’s not forget. The big 12 is a WORSE conference that just so happened that random timing allowed it to go to rights 1 year early.

The big 12 will implode at the drop of a hat. Just a matter of time.

The evidence, as much as I dont like it, suggests otherwise. Rather than testing the market the B12 accepted a new deal in the early window with the existing partners and added basketball schools (conference revenue from March Madness?). They didnt make any trouble and took what they could get.

The P12 and GK otoh, failed to see the TV money drying up while deciding to test the market. The Presidents failed to see their own weaknesses, Like the effect of 10 years of weak football across the conference, and they didnt understand where the TV market is going. And it sounds like they were divided internally on the best course.

 

[Uncle Ken]

We're seeing ESPN trim the fat perhaps. Yet they're still paying well for the Big XII + friends. In your argument they have no incentive to pay the current Big XII anything since they have the SEC and B1G. So already your argument fails. ESPN doesn't like to overpay, but if you whittled college football down to the 24 best teams (as an example), that's still not enough content for ESPN/ Fox/ etc to remain happy.

College football fans like college football for a reason. And some percentage of them (like me) choose college football over the NFL.

I'm wondering if there is a hand-selected, super-resourced P2, if fans don't begin to gravitate to the less resourced remaining teams. Would I rather watch the future versions of Alabama v. LSU or Washington State v. NC State? In a P2 world, I could see myself choosing the latter.

 

[hokiehead]

If the PAC wants to survive they will have to think way outside the box. The MWC exit fees are $34 million per school. No way SDSU, csu, Fresno or Boise can come up with that.

Some circles are saying they need to form an Eastern Division and invite
USF, Tulane, SMU, Memphis, Rice for instance.

If Oregon, Washington, Arizona, ASU and Utah are all gone, would adding these Eastern schools keep the PAC in its P5 status ? Yuck.

Once Zona goes BIG12 all hell will break loose.

At this point, the idea of a merger with the ACC has to seem way more attractive to the remaining Pac members than it did 3 months ago.

 

[PAHIBuff]

Don't forget Yeshiva U!

Does Naropa have sports?

 

[BerkeleyBuff]

College football fans like college football for a reason. And some percentage of them (like me) choose college football over the NFL.

I'm wondering if there is a hand-selected, super-resourced P2, if fans don't begin to gravitate to the less resourced remaining teams. Would I rather watch the future versions of Alabama v. LSU or Washington State v. NC State? In a P2 world, I could see myself choosing the latter.

Agreed. It's why I've been enjoying more fcs games since becoming employed by a fcs university. I wouldn't watch a mega-P2 mini-NFL. If I want the NFL, I'll just watch the NFL, not a ****tier version of it.

 

[MiamiBuffs]

We're seeing ESPN trim the fat perhaps. Yet they're still paying well for the Big XII + friends. In your argument they have no incentive to pay the current Big XII anything since they have the SEC and B1G. So already your argument fails. ESPN doesn't like to overpay, but if you whittled college football down to the 24 best teams (as an example), that's still not enough content for ESPN/ Fox/ etc to remain happy.

ESPN lost B1G rights and is replacing them by ousting CBS from the SEC. I think this all takes effect after this upcoming fall 23-24 NCAA calendar.

AP sources: ESPN out of Big Ten TV rights negotiations

The Big Ten's next television contracts will not include a deal with ESPN. Two people familiar with the negotiations told The Associated Press that the Big Ten was looking for a seven-year deal worth $380 million per year from ESPN, and the network declined.

apnews.com

For ESPN its SEC, ACC, and B12.

 

[ScreamingBeagle]

There isn't enough spots at the table for all relevant universities to fit in the P2. There are many fantastic programs that are relevant and make college football what it is. The networks know they can't lose the fan bases that don't make it.

They need either a 3rd or 4th conference for the leftovers. The schools that couldn't secure a P2 invite. That conference (as I lean towards 3 conferences) will be paid well, but not at the same level as the P2.

If this goes to 24 schools per conference (which is still a Big If), the networks will need to dip back into that conference to finalize final spots. There will not be a NFL stand-alone league this go around. It won't work and it's not going to fit the cfb model.

CFB needs the smaller programs punching up. It needs the underdog in the playoff. It needs NU vs CU, OU vs OSU, TT vs UT. And games like this will be preserved in non-conference and cfb playoff.

Edit- But it can no longer afford letting the kings of sport rule their own fiefdoms. They need compelling matchups, and they need to force more of them to get more eyeballs on screen. They can't afford a big 8 where Nebraska or OU just blow everybody out for boring games all season. Or UT dominating an uninteresting SWC.

 

[BuffWarHog]

Oh I remember verrrry clearly how this started...and the real concern at the time that Ken Starr was going to get Baylor and the other Texas schools to the Pac 12 at the expense of leaving CU stuck with like iowa state and kansas.

And the slander campaign.

 

[Bison]

If the PAC wants to survive they will have to think way outside the box. The MWC exit fees are $34 million per school. No way SDSU, csu, Fresno or Boise can come up with that.

They can get that $ and it really comes down to how much they pay per year over a defined time frame. Right now it’s not a smart idea and the moves would occur in 2025 Instead of next year unless the MWC can work something out.

As for the P12 surviving, they might have to drop football and there would be a new FB only conference out west.

 

[Ever]

I look at these conferences and think... we almost all need to sit back down at the table and reorganize... Like doing some sort of draft or trades...Like so many of these conferences have a good 4 or 5 teams that really have no business being in their respective conferences.

I have no illusions if there were some proverbial draft where CU would fall on that scale but this hodgepodge is pretty silly. Just make some super duper conference with the top 28 teams and have some sort of relegation league like in soccer...for the rest.

 

[BuffWarHog]

College football fans like college football for a reason. And some percentage of them (like me) choose college football over the NFL.

I'm wondering if there is a hand-selected, super-resourced P2, if fans don't begin to gravitate to the less resourced remaining teams. Would I rather watch the future versions of Alabama v. LSU or Washington State v. NC State? In a P2 world, I could see myself choosing the latter.

Samsies.

 

[BuffWarHog]

Pretty funny - for about 2 days, this thread was fun and interesting. It’s back to ****.

 

[Buffnik]

College football fans like college football for a reason. And some percentage of them (like me) choose college football over the NFL.

I'm wondering if there is a hand-selected, super-resourced P2, if fans don't begin to gravitate to the less resourced remaining teams. Would I rather watch the future versions of Alabama v. LSU or Washington State v. NC State? In a P2 world, I could see myself choosing the latter.

You're in a minority and it's probably a small one.

People will gravitate to the best teams with the best players with the biggest stage and the most promotion with the biggest stakes.

Even if someone is a huge fan of MAC sports, they still are a consumer of the big event matchups in the sport and will choose that over anything other than their team playing or occasionally another conference game which will impact their standings (if they're in the conference title hunt).

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

You're in a minority and it's probably a small one.

People will gravitate to the best teams with the best players with the biggest stage and the most promotion with the biggest stakes.

Yeah, I can appreciate the idea that people like CFB over the NFL because of true rivalries, stadium entrances, traditions, pageantry, regional matchups, etc but those aspects were born from meaningful games between great players and programs, not the bottom feeders.

Some people really enjoy G5, FCS and D2 level football but that is certainly a small minority. I also think the narrative that all the things that made CFB great are completely gone is a little dramatic. The only thing I don’t particularly like about the current state of the sport is that instead of 10-12 programs traditionally dominating, it’s been reduced to 3-4.

 

[Beavis]

Pray to god CU didn’t sign ANYTHING. This duct taped Big12 will fall apart sooner than later.

That’s both the beauty and folly of the Big 12. No current members will ever be part of the power 2, it is in every sense the conference of relegated teams. So it’s not going to die, but it’s not going to be part of the upper echelon that ultimately breaks away.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

That’s both the beauty and folly of the Big 12. No current members will ever be part of the power 2, it is in every sense the conference of relegated teams. So it’s not going to die, but it’s not going to be part of the upper echelon that ultimately breaks away.

Depends. If football programs remain University entities the B12 will have a seat at the table because they have many of the top basketball brands and the B1G and SEC won’t be able to leave them behind. They’ll make less money than the P2, but it should all remain part of the same system

 

[Ever]

You're in a minority and it's probably a small one.

People will gravitate to the best teams with the best players with the biggest stage and the most promotion with the biggest stakes.

Even if someone is a huge fan of MAC sports, they still are a consumer of the big event matchups in the sport and will choose that over anything other than their team playing or occasionally another conference game which will impact their standings (if they're in the conference title hunt).

Get rid of stopping the clock after first downs, reduce the hash marks, and get rid of the dumbest overtime rule and it might make college football more enjoyable

 

[Victory]

It hasn’t really been mentioned but I think at this point, you kind of have to assume CU is subject to the same exit fee.

However, some numbers being floated for the Pac 12 media number are $20m/year, so CU is possibly making $70-$80m more in the Big 12 over the next 7 years from media rights alone, so already they are close to 70-80% of break even for the exit fee.

Let’s say they get invited to the B1G at even a 2/3 payout to what those teams are likely making next round (~$60m for media). They are still going to come out ahead and be in a better financial position after only a couple years.

I know you believe this could get paid off but since the local reporters didn’t ask we have no idea how CU thinks about paying $100M or how they would go about doing so or even their long term aspirations.

In terms of making more in the B12, I don’t see how that’s a factor. CU is not going to apply the extra revenue to a rainy day fund (they’ll spend it) and they probably won’t view it as an opportunity cost had they stayed. That extra revenue is what they get and use to compete today.

I agree on the reduced payout. That’s the most likely.

Let’s say the total reduced payout is $70M
They make $50M in the B12
$20M is left over to apply to the exit fee
But they’ll likely need some of that to compete
So let’s say $10M/yr is the true net differential
It would take 10 years to pay that off (interest?)

The only way they pull any of this off is w/ help from the university to cover the initial exit fee which will be due after leaving.

Which brings me back to the original point, we don’t know how CU admins views this which is a problem bc the athletic dept will need their help.

 

[SINKRATZ]

It hasn’t really been mentioned but I think at this point, you kind of have to assume CU is subject to the same exit fee.

However, some numbers being floated for the Pac 12 media number are $20m/year, so CU is possibly making $70-$80m more in the Big 12 over the next 7 years from media rights alone, so already they are close to 70-80% of break even for the exit fee.

Let’s say they get invited to the B1G at even a 2/3 payout to what those teams are likely making next round (~$60m for media). They are still going to come out ahead and be in a better financial position after only a couple years.

They’d be better off in the BIG no matter what conference they are coming from though. If your numbers are in the ballpark, we’re making $70-$80M more in the Big 12 compared to the Pac12 over the next 7 years but we’ll have a $100M exit fee at that point if we go to the BIG compared to $0 in the Pac12 (assuming the term of whatever deal the PAC ultimately signs is similar in length).

Again unless I’m missing something, the move to the Big12 would seem to be more lucrative than the Pac12 only if we stay beyond the current 7 year term. So maybe moving to the Big12 is a hedge in case a BIG invite never comes?

 

[Duff Man]

They’d be better off in the BIG no matter what conference they are coming from though. If your numbers are in the ballpark, we’re making $70-$80M more in the Big 12 compared to the Pac12 over the next 7 years but we’ll have a $100M exit fee at that point if we go to the BIG compared to $0 in the Pac12 (assuming the term of whatever deal the PAC ultimately signs is similar in length).

Again unless I’m missing something, the move to the Big12 would seem to be more lucrative than the Pac12 only if we stay beyond the current 7 year term. So maybe moving to the Big12 is a hedge in case a BIG invite never comes?

To your last sentence-absolutely.