CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues

[ahoelsken]

Nobody is arguing that we should stay in the Pac 10. Lots of people ARE arguing that it doesn't make sense to make a panic move at this moment.

Sidebar: I've been negotiating large commercial deals for 25 years. I have a philosophy that I train my teams (and executives on) which goes something like this:

Every negotiation is a three-legged stool. We'll call the legs Speed, Risk and Economics. If you maximize/prioritize one of those legs over the others, you sacrifice the other two and fall on your ass. Unless you're dealing with morons, there is no practical way to move quick and maximize the economics and avoid risk. Similarly, if you are risk adverse it is likely to cost you money and time.

Back to the story: What do we know right now (within an acceptable range of certainty)?

1. If the B1G wanted OR and WA, they would have gone with USC and UCLA.
2. It is unlikely that the SEC would bring in either of those schools at this time.
3. The ACC is not expanding to the Pacific NW.
4. If Oregon or Washington move in the next month (unlikely) we're not in any worse shape than we are now. However, we WILL at least have data to understand our relative value.
5. There is unrealized value in the PAC12 asset base, because the PAC12 decided to maintain ownership of all media rights as part of the PAC12 Network. That **** is likely for sale now and can be heavily monetized. Said another way, nobody is going to extend the same ****ty media deal Larry Scott put in place.

Look, we all know that the conference is not worth the same as it was a month ago, but there is likely a lot more to give/sell than the Big12 will offer. However, we may look at the data in 30-45 days and decide the Big 12 is the right move. But you make that decision based on facts, not emotions.

Keep calm, and let's see what happens.

Here's the problem with the economics of this whole deal-You have one interested party here. FOX is done with the Pac 10. No interest whatsoever from CBS, Turner, or any major streaming company that I know of. The only interested party is ESPN. Tell me why I shouldn't expect the TV money to decrease from the $30M we get under this deal.

 

[Go Buffs]

No I didn't. You're a larger ass clown than Ahoel. And your handle sucks.

Simmer down bitch.

 

[ShnaultzSaltNMaltAssault]

The ACC schools are not leaving anytime soon, unless they are willing to pay an absolute **** ton of money to the remaining members (likely more than they would receive from the SEC over a decade). And what makes you think the B1G has any interest whatsoever in Kansas?

CU has two options right now. Big 12, or PAC 10. None of the scenarios you laid out would negatively impact CU's ability to move to the Big 12.

AAU and basketball.

I mean, you're joking right? The B1G is about to sign a what, $1-1.5 billion contract. SEC signed a $3 billion contract that begins in 2024. Clemson currently makes 35 mill in TV revenue. Ummm yeaaah, Clemson would swallow whatever fines the ACC throws their way, and send them a check with a note: Lol, sorry. Here's a tip, it's on the house

SEC leaving CBS for ESPN in US$3bn deal from 2024 - SportsPro

Disney confirms exclusive rights to conference’s marquee football games for ten years.

www.sportspromedia.com

 

[Hank]

Simmer down bitch.

I'm just getting started.

 

[BuffWarHog]

Where are people getting the idea that the new B12 is going to generate a lot more money than the P12(0)? Is this an article I missed or a random twitter guy or what

Probably something having to do with people actually watching the teams that are in the current Big XII

 

[Alfred91]

Nobody is arguing that we should stay in the Pac 10. Lots of people ARE arguing that it doesn't make sense to make a panic move at this moment.

Sidebar: I've been negotiating large commercial deals for 25 years. I have a philosophy that I train my teams (and executives on) which goes something like this:

Every negotiation is a three-legged stool. We'll call the legs Speed, Risk and Economics. If you maximize/prioritize one of those legs over the others, you sacrifice the other two and fall on your ass. Unless you're dealing with morons, there is no practical way to move quick and maximize the economics and avoid risk. Similarly, if you are risk adverse it is likely to cost you money and time.

Back to the story: What do we know right now (within an acceptable range of certainty)?

1. If the B1G wanted OR and WA, they would have gone with USC and UCLA.
2. It is unlikely that the SEC would bring in either of those schools at this time.
3. The ACC is not expanding to the Pacific NW.
4. If Oregon or Washington move in the next month (unlikely) we're not in any worse shape than we are now. However, we WILL at least have data to understand our relative value.
5. There is unrealized value in the PAC12 asset base, because the PAC12 decided to maintain ownership of all media rights as part of the PAC12 Network. That **** is likely for sale now and can be heavily monetized. Said another way, nobody is going to extend the same ****ty media deal Larry Scott put in place.

Look, we all know that the conference is not worth the same as it was a month ago, but there is likely a lot more to give/sell than the Big12 will offer. However, we may look at the data in 30-45 days and decide the Big 12 is the right move. But you make that decision based on facts, not emotions.

Keep calm, and let's see what happens.

That's way too sensible and doesn't have near enough paranoia to be a true Allbuffs post.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Sorry, maybe South Carolina or Missouri get the boot before Arkansas? I don’t know, Arkansas would definitely be the 5th to get the boot after that

 

[GawainBuff]

With how rapidly things are changing in college football, I think planning out 5+ years is a fool's errand.

This seems an ironic assertion from a lawyer who accused another lawyer of inherently offering bad advice to his clients.

But then I’m barely paying attention to any of this part of the discussion.

 

[30Something]

AAU and basketball.

I mean, you're joking right? The B1G is about to sign a what, $1-1.5 billion contract. SEC signed a $3 billion contract that begins in 2024. Clemson currently makes 35 mill in TV revenue. Ummm yeaaah, Clemson would swallow whatever fines the ACC throws their way, and send them a check with a note: Lol, sorry. Here's a tip, it's on the house

SEC leaving CBS for ESPN in US$3bn deal from 2024 - SportsPro

Disney confirms exclusive rights to conference’s marquee football games for ten years.

www.sportspromedia.com

Fine?

Tell me you don't know how GOR termination remedies work without telling me you don't know how GOR termination remedies work.

 

[Alfred91]

I would bet that KU + ISU are on the table as travel partner additions for the Pac-10.

Some current members love the AAU prestige. And those schools need an affiliation that gives them a reset and a hope for a seat at the table - just like the remaining Pac-10.

Dude. There is absolutely no way Iowa will ever let ISU join the Big Ten. It probably wouldn't be very popular with Minnesota or the Nubs, either.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Where are people getting the idea that the new B12 is going to generate a lot more money than the P12(0)? Is this an article I missed or a random twitter guy or what

It was speculated that a Big18 would be $500m-$600m in TV money, while the Pac 10 would be $250m-$300m. Works out to be roughly the same per school assuming equal revenue share.

 

[Thisuniversityisf’ed!]

No I didn't. You're a larger ass clown than Ahoel. And your handle sucks.

Well that escalated quickly

 

[chitownbuff]

Will be interesting to see how serious the PAC is about expansion - I’d be hesitant to stay in a conference that’s unwilling to be aggressive in these times. Bonus points if they turn the tables on the Big12 by adding Kansas, OK St., TCU, and Houston, as well as adding SDSU and UNLV. Finally, move the HQ to Vegas and start hosting our championships, tournaments, and media days there ASAP. Profit.

 

[BuffWarHog]

Sorry, maybe South Carolina or Missouri get the boot before Arkansas? I don’t know, Arkansas would definitely be the 5th to get the boot after that

The team with the highest increase in football attendance in the NCAA and one of the highest in the country, the team that set the record two years in a row for season attendance for basketball, #7 in the Learfield cup, only team in the nation to finish Top 25 in Football, Baseball, and Basketball, the current NCAA athletic department of the year 21-22? K.

 

[ahoelsken]

It was speculated that a Big18 would be $500m-$600m in TV money, while the Pac 10 would be $250m-$300m. Works out to be roughly the same per school assuming equal revenue share.

I've seen as low as $220m for the Pac 10.

 

[H.E. Pennypacker]

Will be interesting to see how serious the PAC is about expansion - I’d be hesitant to stay in a conference that’s unwilling to be aggressive in these times. Bonus points if they turn the tables on the Big12 by adding Kansas, OK St., TCU, and Houston, as well as adding SDSU and UNLV. Finally, move the HQ to Vegas and start hosting our championships, tournaments, and media days there ASAP. Profit.

Didn't they already move HQ to Las Vegas? I know for sure they got out of their million a month San Fran rental.

 

[Hank]

AAU and basketball.

I mean, you're joking right? The B1G is about to sign a what, $1-1.5 billion contract. SEC signed a $3 billion contract that begins in 2024. Clemson currently makes 35 mill in TV revenue. Ummm yeaaah, Clemson would swallow whatever fines the ACC throws their way, and send them a check with a note: Lol, sorry. Here's a tip, it's on the house

SEC leaving CBS for ESPN in US$3bn deal from 2024 - SportsPro

Disney confirms exclusive rights to conference’s marquee football games for ten years.

www.sportspromedia.com

You don't understand what grant of rights means. It literally means you grant your rights to the conference. So, if you jump to a new conference, even if it pays you $100 million annually, you fork ALL OF IT over to your old conference. To my knowledge, the ACC agreement does not have a liquidated damages clause or "fines" provision that replaces the grant of rights. And it has a very long term.

Is it enforceable? Who knows? But my impression is that university presidents, regents, etc., are not the types to say, "**** it, let them sue us."

Often, the league will negotiate with the exiting member, the idea being "Let's not keep the exiting member another year or two more than they are contractually obligated." But the ACC deal runs through 2036. Not much room for bargaining. It will cost a pretty penny to exit.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

The team with the high increase in football attendance in the NCAA and one of the high is the country, the team that set the record two years in a row for season attendance for basketball, #7 in the Learfield cup, only team in the nation to finish Top 25 in Football, Baseball, and Basketball, the current NCAA athletic department of the year 21-22? K.

Lol yes. If/when the time comes where the SEC has to dump programs to add Clemson/FSU/Miami/ND/etc Arkansas would probably be 5th on the chopping block. Maybe Kentucky, but they’re a blue blood hoops school.

 

[SuperD]

I've seen as low as $220m for the Pac 10.

There is no way that West Virginia tweeter already has ESPN’s offer number. Who knows if they have even talked numbers. So stupid we all gave up so much money to be able to take all the rights to the market at the same time and the LA schools bail at the 2 yard line.

 

[Hank]

This seems an ironic assertion from a lawyer who accused another lawyer of inherently offering bad advice to his clients.

But then I’m barely paying attention to any of this part of the discussion.

If you think Aheol is a lawyer, then you are right. You are barely paying attention to the discussion. Not that being a lawyer makes your opinion any more qualified. There are tons of dumbass lawyers out there who think that (See Guy Smiley, for example).

My only point was that Ahoel probably wouldn't make a very good lawyer because he tells people that they should do stupid things that are harmful.

 

[30Something]

Here's the problem with the economics of this whole deal-You have one interested party here. FOX is done with the Pac 10. No interest whatsoever from CBS, Turner, or any major streaming company that I know of. The only interested party is ESPN. Tell me why I shouldn't expect the TV money to decrease from the $30M we get under this deal.

Because your assumptions may not be accurate, and even if they are we're in no worse shape in 3 months than we are now.

You assume there is only one interested party, and you assume ESPN, NBC or CBS is not interested in paying more per school for expanded rights to West coast athletics that they don't currently have. Fox has B1G (including USC and UCLA), and you don't think the other networks would love to counter that with competing programming on the west coast?

IMO It would be grossly negligent for the schools and PAC to not take the time to test the market.

 

[BuffWarHog]

Lol yes. If/when the time comes where the SEC has to dump programs to add Clemson/FSU/Miami/ND/etc Arkansas would probably be 5th on the chopping block. Maybe Kentucky, but they’re a blue blood hoops school.

Thought hoops wasn’t part of this.

 

[ShnaultzSaltNMaltAssault]

No I didn't. You're a larger ass clown than Ahoel. And your handle sucks.

OMG you're so right, UO & UW leaving wouldn't be worse at all! In fact, you know what would really strengthen our position, replacing them with UNLV and Fresno state! Wow, you're so smart. We could become king of the new PACWEST conference!

So ass clown, lol haven't used that in 10 years, in case you're unaware, these TV contracts also cover mens basketball. If you'd rather we sit on our hands waiting for UO & UW to make a move instead of playing in one of the best basketball conferences in the country bringing Arizona with us...feel free but I'm here to tell you that's stupid. We'd be waiting on a hail Mary instead of trying to better our situation.

Seriously what's your salary? You don't seem too bright

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Thought hoops wasn’t part of this.

When football brands are equal, a blue blood basketball program probably tips the scale. I know you have a vested interest in Arkansas, I’m just saying if the B1G and SEC ever decide to drop the bottom half of their conferences in order to add more valuable programs and increase the per school layouts, Arkansas probably gets cut.

 

[ShnaultzSaltNMaltAssault]

Fine?

Tell me you don't know how GOR termination remedies work without telling me you don't know how GOR termination remedies work.

You're right I don't. Pretty sure $300 million a year would solve it tho

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

You don't understand what grant of rights means. It literally means you grant your rights to the conference. So, if you jump to a new conference, even if it pays you $100 million annually, you fork ALL OF IT over to your old conference. To my knowledge, the ACC agreement does not have a liquidated damages clause or "fines" provision that replaces the grant of rights. And it has a very long term.

Is it enforceable? Who knows? But my impression is that university presidents, regents, etc., are not the types to say, "**** it, let them sue us."

Often, the league will negotiate with the exiting member, the idea being "Let's not keep the exiting member another year or two more than they are contractually obligated." But the ACC deal runs through 2036. Not much room for bargaining. It will cost a pretty penny to exit.

@hawg1 had a number on 247 of something like $2.25B for three schools to leave the ACC. Not sure where he got those numbers from though

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

You're right I don't. Pretty sure $300 million a year would solve it tho

Who is getting $300m/year?

 

[Hank]

Seriously what's your salary? You don't seem too bright

How long yo dick?

 

[30Something]

OMG you're so right, UO & UW leaving wouldn't be worse at all! In fact, you know what would really strengthen our position, replacing them with UNLV and Fresno state! Wow, you're so smart. We could become king of the new PACWEST conference!

So ass clown, lol haven't used that in 10 years, in case you're unaware, these TV contracts also cover mens basketball. If you'd rather we sit on our hands waiting for UO & UW to make a move instead of playing in one of the best basketball conferences in the country bringing Arizona with us...feel free but I'm here to tell you that's stupid. We'd be waiting on a hail Mary instead of trying to better our situation.

Seriously what's your salary? You don't seem too bright

Where do you think Oregon and Washington are gonna go? They only wanted the B1G. They are not getting the B1G.

 

[30Something]

You're right I don't. Pretty sure $300 million a year would solve it tho

You think they are gonna get $300m/year from the SEC? GTFOH.