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CU MBB Rankings/NET/KenPom/Bracketology Catch-All

torero said:
I'm more baffled by the love the Big 10 is getting. Purdue is slightly ahead of Arizona, and Illinois is ahead of Wazzu, but I can't comprehend how that translates to 6 Big 10 bids and 3 at most for the Pac. Do people think wins over a really ****ty Michigan team matter?
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I absolutely support MSU being in. They've got a clean resume and their record only looks mediocre because they scheduled very tough while also notching some strong wins.

But Wisconsin as a lock? Northwestern, Nebraska, Ohio State and Iowa getting love? I think I can make a better case for the MWC getting 6 than I can for the B1G getting 5.
 
I think the obvious factor is the perception, real or not, that the Pac is really bad this year. And our two blowout losses to AZ don’t help.

I also don’t get how we get no pass for a team with one of the most missed games by starters in the country. I thought that was a factor the selection committee looks at.
 
CU has a very clean resume. No truly bad losses. Also no wins that are going to get anyone too excited.

Looking at the losses, Arizona destroyed us twice. So we didn't compete when we played one of the 5 best teams in the country. That's our "bad".

Other losses:

Florida State by 6 in OT ("neutral" game played in Florida)

Colorado State away by 5 (Q1 vs a Top 35 NET)

Then conference road games, many with a starter or more injured. ASU by 3, Cal by 4, WSU by 9, Utah by 5 and UCLA by 4.
 
Darth Snow said:
Something weird happening this year. This team should be in at this point but teams with weaker resumes are consistently ahead of us.
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I agree with a win @Ore St, CU is a solid 3rd in the Conference ending the regular season with a 6 game win streak finishing with 22 wins. I'm not sure if the prognosticators are giving CU the short-stick or just sticking it to the PAC12, since they imploded. The PAC12 was not great this year, but most have them as a 2 team only bid conference no matter what, outside a wildcard winning the PAC12 conference tourney. I sort of see the Bracketologist's just shuffling teams within certain conferences to make their conference numbers not really moving teams that much. I agree with the B1G discussion, seems like 6 teams--no matter what.

I disagree on Villanova. If they lose to Creighton, they will be 17-14 on the season. Generally, this record requires at least a run to the conference finals, if not winning it to get in. It will probably only get weirder with the conference tourneys.
 
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Buffnik said:
CU has a very clean resume. No truly bad losses. Also no wins that are going to get anyone too excited.

Looking at the losses, Arizona destroyed us twice. So we didn't compete when we played one of the 5 best teams in the country. That's our "bad".

Other losses:

Florida State by 6 in OT ("neutral" game played in Florida)

Colorado State away by 5 (Q1 vs a Top 35 NET)

Then conference road games, many with a starter or more injured. ASU by 3, Cal by 4, WSU by 9, Utah by 5 and UCLA by 4.
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I have a hypothesis that past results in close games is not particularly predictive of results in future close games.

We profile as a team that has a uniquely horrible matchup with the best team we played, that will take care of business against inferior opponents, and always play tight games in quality matchups.

IMHO, we're like 2 timely made 3 pointers away from talking about whether we're a #6 or #7 seed.
 
GRM said:
I agree with a win @Ore St, CU is a solid 3rd in the Conference ending the regular season with a 6 game win streak finishing with 22 wins. I'm not sure if the prognosticators are giving CU the short-stick or just sticking it to the PAC12, since they imploded. The PAC12 was not great this year, but most have them as a 2 team only bid conference no matter what, outside a wildcard winning the PAC12 conference tourney. I sort of see the Bracketologist's just shuffling teams within certain conferences to make their conference numbers, not really moving teams that much. I do not get Utah slotted above CU in many brackets--not even close in the NET, they lost to Ore St and we beat a few weeks back by like 20. Sure, they have more Q1 wins, but 2 Q3 losses.
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Regarding the CU vs Utah debate:

Record: 21-9 vs 18-12
Conference: 12-7 vs 9-10
NET: 29 vs 47
KenPom: 32 vs 49
Head-to head: split with each winning at home - CU by 24 and Utah by 5

If only there was some way we could make a reasonable determination about which team is better.
 
For one of the play-in games for the 11 seeds, I am betting that they make a father-son matchup for tv by pitting St John's against New Mexico.
 
I trust that NCAA selection committee doesn’t listen to the yahoos, right? Isn’t the NET the be all end all of their selection criteria? That’s why it exists, right?
 
Hallett Hell said:
I trust that NCAA selection committee doesn’t listen to the yahoos, right? Isn’t the NET the be all end all of their selection criteria? That’s why it exists, right?
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I can't believe a CU team with a NET of around 30 isn't in the tourney, and they should not be slated to play in Dayton. My suspicion is that these bracket people work off of each other's brackets, so there is a circular bias that forms between them. It is tough to break that bias, but once a few prominent brackets factor in the Oregon win, we may see CU projected as being in the tourney in most predictions going forward.
 
Buffman64 said:
I can't believe a CU team with a NET of around 30 isn't in the tourney, and they should not be slated to play in Dayton. My suspicion is that these bracket people work off of each other's brackets, so there is a circular bias that forms between them. It is tough to break that bias, but once a few prominent brackets factor in the Oregon win, we may see CU projected as being in the tourney in most predictions going forward.
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I could totally see being in the 8/9 on Selection Sunday and all these same pundits quickly saying how it's absolutely justified by the criteria that is used. I mean, is anyone really going to cry about a miscarriage of justice if the Seton Hall Pirates they love so very very much are "snubbed" with a #63 NET and went 7-4 in the non-con with no good wins? Their resume is that they beat UConn and Marquette at home.
 
Bone Buff said:
If I recall correctly, in 2011, our net rankings (I think it was still rpi back then ) sucked, but we beat k-state 3 times. So we're on the other end of it.

Am I remembering that right?
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NET is new since then. Seton Hall getting in for beating UCOnN makes as much sense as Stanford getting in for beating Arizona.
 
I do think the Pac12 only having 2 teams in the field at this point is hurting us and as mentioned we got blown out twice by the only elite team in the conference. Plus we only have 2 quad 1 wins and those are low end Q1 wins at that. And also as mentioned, it seems like the committee puts a high amount of stock into Q1 wins above other metrics.
 
Bone Buff said:
If I recall correctly, in 2011, our net rankings (I think it was still rpi back then ) sucked, but we beat k-state 3 times. So we're on the other end of it.

Am I remembering that right?
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Also beat good Texas and Missouri teams, iirc. We all thought we were golden after the 3rd KSU win, but the committee thought we needed to beat KU on top of it. Absurd.
 
The Buffs have done just enough to give the commitee doubt, i.e. losing to Cal. They HAVE TO NEED TO take care of business in their next 2 games. If the Buffs are still playing next Friday in Vegas I think they're in.
 
Bubblebuff said:
Washington over Wazou was equally as big of a win for us. Now we’re basically locked in to have two Quad 1 road wins! Solid measures all around! Win 3 more and we might be an 8 or 9. Win 4 and the pac12 title and we’re a Uconn-esque 7 seed poised to make a run, with KJ being the next kemba walker.
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Hate to complain about potential seedings but an 8/9 would be worse than a 10 or 11, assuming we don't get stuck in the play-in in Dayton as an 11 seed. An 8/9 seed would put us in a potential 2nd round game in Brooklyn against UConn, in Memphis against Houston, in Charlotte against Tennessee or in Indy against Purdue. Essentially a road game in any of these situations. Granted these scenarios are a ways off, first need to get in and then worry about winning a first round game.
 
A lot of the pac12 bias is likely that we’re not a 4 bid league, which sadly is true. Going into this week, utah and CU were the top first 4 out teams, with pretty equal representation which to me meant a lot of brackets had 3 pac12 teams in, but we were cannibalizing eachother. Us rising and them dropping (if they lose tonight) will be huge.
 
Robert Sorell said:
March 7, in on 30/90 brackets at bracketmatrix

March 8, in on 59/105 brackets at bracketmatrix, highest seed is #10
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I'd be very happy with an 11-seed bye. Tougher RD1 than a seed between 7-10, but much better path to a Sweet 16.

Mostly, I don't want to be seeded where our Buffs had to play UConn, Houston, Purdue or Arizona in Rd2. If we get stuck in a situation like that, hopefully we draw Tennessee (probably the 4th #1 seed if the Dance started today). We match well with their style of play and have confidence from beating them last year.
 
Through March 8:

#30 NET (Indiana State swapped spots with us last night)
#32 KenPom

Games we care about today (NET in parentheses):

Buffs (30) at Oregon State (158), 3pm, PACN

Georgetown (204) at St. John's (37), 10am, Fox
Memphis (71) at FAU (33), 10am, CBS
Siena (353) at Iona (207), 11am, ESPN+
Oklahoma (40) at Texas (26), 12pm, ESPN
Texas A&M (49) at Ole Miss (80), 12pm, CBS
Creighton (11) at Villanova (31), 12:30, Fox
South Carolina (47) at Miss State (39), 12:30, SECN
William & Mary (325) vs Towson (154) in CAA tournament, 12:30
Richmond (70) at George Mason (93), 12:30
USF (73) at Tulsa (196), 1pm, ESPN+
Utah Tech (279) at SFA (167), 1pm, ESPN+
Northern Iowa (104) vs Indiana State (29), 1:30, CBSSN
Miami (95) at Florida State (98), 2pm, ESPN2 - good wins better for the resume than good losses
CSU (36) at AFA (270), 2pm
Florida (28) at Vanderbilt (216), 2:30, SECN
UCF (67) at TCU (38), 3pm, ESPN+
Grambling (292) at Alabama State (314), 3pm
Baylor (13) at Texas Tech (35), 4pm, ESPN2
Bradley (57) vs Drake (46), 4pm, CBSSN - MVC tournament
Clemson (24) at Wake Forest (41), 4pm, ACCN
Utah (48) at Oregon (68), 5pm, PACN
NC State (83) at Pittsburgh (43), 5:45, CW
UConn (3) at Providence (61), 6pm, Fox
GA Tech (124) at Virginia (50), 6pm, ACCN
New Mexico (27) at Utah State (32), 6:30, CBSSN
DePaul (322) at Seton Hall (63), 6:30, FS1
Minnesota (82) at Northwestern (52), 7pm, BTN
Arizona (4) at USC (99), 8pm, ESPN
UNLV (75) at Nevada (34), 8:30, CBSSN
ASU (123) at UCLA (119), 9pm, FS1

Besides lack of Q1 wins and a weak road record, the other negative on CU's resume is its non-conference strength of schedule. So we can benefit quite a bit if Iona, Towson, Richmond, Milwaukee, CSU, FSU, Miami, Grambling, Utah Tech and UNCO all finish well. Pepperdine is done after losing to San Diego last night in the WCC tournament.

Of note for Pac-12 tournament, if Oregon & ASU win we'll have a 5-way tie for 5th and I have no idea how those tiebreakers would work out for P12T seeding. Looks like CU with the 3-seed will get the 6 vs 11 winner and the 11 will be Stanford, USC or ASU (ASU could also be the 6 from that 5th place tie if they win today).
 
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Buffnik said:
Through March 8:

#30 NET (Indiana State swapped spots with us last night)
#32 KenPom

Games we care about today (NET in parentheses):

Buffs (30) at Oregon State (158), 3pm, PACN

Georgetown (204) at St. John's (37), 10am, Fox
Memphis (71) at FAU (33), 10am, CBS
Siena (353) at Iona (207), 11am, ESPN+
Oklahoma (40) at Texas (26), 12pm, ESPN
Texas A&M (49) at Ole Miss (80), 12pm, CBS
Creighton (11) at Villanova (31), 12:30, Fox
South Carolina (47) at Miss State (39), 12:30, SECN
William & Mary (325) vs Towson (154) in CAA tournament, 12:30
Richmond (70) at George Mason (93), 12:30
USF (73) at Tulsa (196), 1pm, ESPN+
Utah Tech (279) at SFA (167), 1pm, ESPN+
Northern Iowa (104) vs Indiana State (29), 1:30, CBSSN
Miami (95) at Florida State (98), 2pm, ESPN2 - good wins better for the resume than good losses
CSU (36) at AFA (270), 2pm
Florida (28) at Vanderbilt (216), 2:30, SECN
UCF (67) at TCU (38), 3pm, ESPN+
Grambling (292) at Alabama State (314), 3pm
Baylor (13) at Texas Tech (35), 4pm, ESPN2
Bradley (57) vs Drake (46), 4pm, CBSSN - MVC tournament
Clemson (24) at Wake Forest (41), 4pm, ACCN
Utah (48) at Oregon (68), 5pm, PACN
NC State (83) at Pittsburgh (43), 5:45, CW
UConn (3) at Providence (61), 6pm, Fox
GA Tech (124) at Virginia (50), 6pm, ACCN
New Mexico (27) at Utah State (32), 6:30, CBSSN
DePaul (322) at Seton Hall (63), 6:30, FS1
Minnesota (82) at Northwestern (52), 7pm, BTN
Arizona (4) at USC (99), 8pm, ESPN
UNLV (75) at Nevada (34), 8:30, CBSSN
ASU (123) at UCLA (119), 9pm, FS1

Besides lack of Q1 wins and a weak road record, the other negative on CU's resume is its non-conference strength of schedule. So we can benefit quite a bit if Iona, Towson, Richmond, Milwaukee, CSU, FSU, Miami, Grambling, Utah Tech and UNCO all finish well. Pepperdine is done after losing to San Diego last night in the WCC tournament.

Of note for Pac-12 tournament, if Oregon & ASU win we'll have a 5-way tie for 5th and I have no idea how those tiebreakers would work out for P12T seeding. Looks like CU with the 3-seed will get the 7 vs 10 winner and the 10 will be Stanford, USC or ASU (ASU could also be the 7 from that 5th place tie if they win today).
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Wouldn’t we get the winner of 6v11?
 
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