CU Perspective on CSU's Claims to the Denver Market

[BSUTOP25]

Hey Buffs - We've got several CSU Rams fans on the MWCBoard claiming that they have a significant market share of viewers in the Denver market and that number is sure to grow exponentially if they get into the Big XII. Part of their argument is that CU has either become irrelevant in Denver or they've hit the ceiling, which provides CSU a lot of potential to pick up the casual fan or transplant resident. Some are making the claim that there are more CSU grads in Denver than CU grads.

I realize it is an instate rivalry and there are going to be some biases but it has always been my perception that CSU was the little brother in the Denver MSA while CU was the dominate player when it came to college athletics.

Anyway, would you be so kind as to share some insight into this and also comment on what you truly believe CSU's P5 chances are? Thanks

 

[Jello Bear]

This summarizes my thoughts on their chances.

 

[Darth Snow]

(insert laughter here)

The dominant player when it comes to Denver is the Broncos. Then the Broncos. Then the Broncos. Then maybe the rockies. Then the Broncos. then the Nuggets. Then the Aves (that can fluctuate). Then Broncos. Then CU. Then Broncos. Then rockies again. Then the rapids. then the outlaws. then the DU hockey team. Then CSU football.

It's an afterthought of an afterthought. And that's during CU's worst period in history while they've been (for them) relatively successful. There's always a lot of chatter during the CU v CSU game week. Then nothing after that because, well, Broncos.

To be truthful, Cu has not brought a lot of eyeballs to the Pac 12 because the Denver metro area is all about the Broncos (and CU has been terrible). CSU will bring a fraction, maybe, of that. So, CSU will bring very very little.

Here is the current state of affairs, after CU's worst decade ever: http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/5/9/11638970/ncaa-football-fans-map-teams-schools

Reddit:

CommonCensus:

and the NYT : http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/10/03/upshot/ncaa-football-map.html#7,38.575,-102.776

anyways, conclusion: CU "owns" the Denver metro area despite a horrible stretch when it comes to college sports.

However, you have to fit that into the fact that Denver is not a college sports town. So CSU's ceiling is very, very, very small.

 

[Fight CU]

This summarizes my thoughts on their chances.

Behold the elegant bushes!

 

[Fight CU]

and the stunning vistas!

 

[Buffnik]

CU is the flagship school.

CSU does have more in-state alums, I think. They also probably get more folks from neighboring Big 12 states since they're an Ag school.

Frankly, they're more worthy of being P5 than a lot of P5s. But they are historically awful and missed the boat while similar schools joined at the hip to the more prestigious flagship (OSU with OU / KSU with KU) to keep conference affiliation and legislative interlocking.

Now - maybe too late for them. Last gasp effort.

 

[BSUTOP25]

(insert laughter here)

The dominant player when it comes to Denver is the Broncos. Then the Broncos. Then the Broncos. Then maybe the rockies. Then the Broncos. then the Nuggets. Then the Aves (that can fluctuate). Then Broncos. Then CU. Then Broncos. Then rockies again. Then the rapids. then the outlaws. then the DU hockey team. Then CSU football.

It's an afterthought of an afterthought. And that's during CU's worst period in history while they've been (for them) relatively successful. There's always a lot of chatter during the CU v CSU game week. Then nothing after that because, well, Broncos.

To be truthful, Cu has not brought a lot of eyeballs to the Pac 12 because the Denver metro area is all about the Broncos (and CU has been terrible). CSU will bring a fraction, maybe, of that. So, CSU will bring very very little.

Here is the current state of affairs, after CU's worst decade ever: http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/5/9/11638970/ncaa-football-fans-map-teams-schools

Reddit:

CommonCensus:

and the NYT : http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/10/03/upshot/ncaa-football-map.html#7,38.575,-102.776

anyways, conclusion: CU "owns" the Denver metro area despite a horrible stretch when it comes to college sports.

However, you have to fit that into the fact that Denver is not a college sports town. So CSU's ceiling is very, very, very small.

Thanks for the feedback. Do you think the new stadium will help to increase their presence or footprint at all? Their end goal is P5 inclusion. Frankly, I don't think CSU brings enough to the table for the Big XII - my assumption is they expand East with Cincy and either UCF or Houston.

 

[FLounder]

I have never seen those pictures of Hughes before, I busted out laughing in Organic Chemistry.

 

[Darth Snow]

Thanks for the feedback. Do you think the new stadium will help to increase their presence or footprint at all? Their end goal is P5 inclusion. Frankly, I don't think CSU brings enough to the table for the Big XII - my assumption is they expand East with Cincy and either UCF or Houston.

It will help some, and especially will help their fort collins fan base. CSU fans that live in denver just don't make that drive up to Foco in large numbers, historically.

But as nik said -> too little, too late.

 

[Shldr2Shldr]

Thanks for the feedback. Do you think the new stadium will help to increase their presence or footprint at all? Their end goal is P5 inclusion. Frankly, I don't think CSU brings enough to the table for the Big XII - my assumption is they expand East with Cincy and either UCF or Houston.

CSU doesn't bring enough eye balls, ticket sales. access to recruiting or prestige in any program to be on the short list for P5 expansion. Sad reality that they refuse to accept. The stadium will provide a temporary boost to ticket sales, but I don't see that lasting once the novelty and newness of the stadium wears off.

 

[CitizenKane]

For the most part CSU will lose market share in the Denver area by switching to the Big 12 (if they get an offer). The reason is simple, they will lose many more games than they do today. Plus they won't always get to play Wyoming and Air Force and those games did ok for them in Denver.

That being said, there is one game a year where market share will be higher. When they play Texas (because there are so dang many Texas transplants here and even if they didn't go to Texas they seem to cheer for the short horns). Also, CSU would sell out their stadium every year they hosted Kansas State. That fan base will do anything and everything they can to get out of the little apple. So you could expect an 80-90% purple stadium on those days.... Plus Oklahoma fans love to watch a good beat down and likely would fill up half of CSU's stadium.
Oh and during basketball season Kansas fans would happily make the drive.

But Denver market share? Not unless CSU won big in the Big12 and that just isn't happening.

 

[Alfred91]

(insert laughter here)
Reddit:

If I'm reading that right, and I'd like to think my knowledge of Colorado counties is pretty good, CSU isn't even the number team in their own county.

Looks to me like Larimer County is Buckeye Country, lol.

 

[BuffNut99]

I don't think they know what "exponentially" means.

 

[MiamiBuffs]

CU is the flagship school.

CSU does have more in-state alums, I think. They also probably get more folks from neighboring Big 12 states since they're an Ag school.

Frankly, they're more worthy of being P5 than a lot of P5s. But they are historically awful and missed the boat while similar schools joined at the hip to the more prestigious flagship (OSU with OU / KSU with KU) to keep conference affiliation and legislative interlocking.

Now - maybe too late for them. Last gasp effort.

Im not exactly sure how to tabulate that bolded part. But its my impression that more in state kids go to CSU over CU.

Consider the following...
The MWCs TV contract is with CBS and ESPN
The Big XIIs TV contract is with Fox and ESPN
The PAC12s TV contract is with Fox and ESPN

Right now each conference has their own TV deals on seperate networks. If CSU moves from MWC to the BigXII they would be a local team competing for airtime on the same networks in a more legit conference. ESPN will deny both conferences over the SEC. Just a fact to consider.

 

[InTheBuff]

and the stunning vistas!

Can't really make this argument anymore since they are building the new stadium. I will say that although nice it's still a bit small IMHO for P5 status.

 

[sackman]

CSU is a small fish in a small pond.

 

[Fight CU]

Can't really make this argument anymore since they are building the new stadium. I will say that although nice it's still a bit small IMHO for P5 status.

Yes I can. you're not the boss of me!

 

[sackman]

Thanks for the feedback. Do you think the new stadium will help to increase their presence or footprint at all? Their end goal is P5 inclusion. Frankly, I don't think CSU brings enough to the table for the Big XII - my assumption is they expand East with Cincy and either UCF or Houston.

CSU is a victim of some ridiculously horrible choices made by their administration in the 50's and 60's. One of those choices was to build their stadium off campus. While CU was expanding Folsom and moving to the Big 7 (predecessor to the big 8 and eventually Big 12), CSU was wallowing in the RMAC and making no attempt to improve its situation. Around that same time, they cancelled the annual series with CU, built Hughes, and slipped into a three decade long period of obscurity that was accepted by pretty much everybody associated with the school. It wasn't until Sonny Lubick caught lightening in a bottle and they made it to a few bowl games that folks began to wonder why the world of college football head left them behind. Problem is, it's too late now. The ship has sailed and they are still at the pier, hoping a life raft gets sent their way.

 

[SuperiorBuff]

CSU will miss out on conference expansion and drop to FCS level within the next 10 years. They will become one of the dominant FCS teams in the country and enjoy far more press than they currently garner.

 

[dio]

Thanks for the feedback. Do you think the new stadium will help to increase their presence or footprint at all? Their end goal is P5 inclusion. Frankly, I don't think CSU brings enough to the table for the Big XII - my assumption is they expand East with Cincy and either UCF or Houston.

CSU is a tier 2 or tier 3 school for expansion. They would be a decent add - but you would think the Big12 would look for a travel partner with WVU. Cincinnati, USF, Memphis. If they do come West, I think the conversation starts with BYU. Boise State is next, although BSU doesn't bring a worthwhile media market. I would also think that Houston is a better target for the Big12, with that massive market.

Once you get past them, CSU could be a good option... but then you have lots of schools at the level vying for a seat at the table. I'm not sure CSU's current leadership can grease the wheels enough to make it happen. But, I've been wrong before.

 

[Bufffan68]

Denver is 95% Broncos...the rest benefit from not having their season coincide with the NFL. The idea that CSU has enough market share to entice the Big XII is a joke.

 

[EddieCrowder]

UNT in my backyard has no designs on ever being a P5 quite happy with their place in CFB. Even they had the foresight to build 50K seats at Apogee Stadium its a nice stadium looks similar to the new CSU stadium. It has the "eagle wing" stands in the foreground, I take the little guy 2 or 3 times a year.

 

[MtnBuff]

Equating the number of alumni in an area with the level of support in an area is not an accurate measure. By that measure Metro State should be a P5 school and dominate in Denver instead of being a D2 school with no football program.

It is not just a question of how many alums you have but how bought into the program are the alums, how much interest do you get from non-alums, and how much attention can you get to maintain and grow interest.

In Denver the Broncos dominate the media, other pro sports grab almost all the scraps. Of the Colleges CU by nature of tradition and conference affiliation gets the largest share (which is still small.) There isn't much left over for CSU.

If they want to argue about strength in the Denver area they should start by selling more tickets to the game in Denver that Buffs fans hate but still turn out to in much larger numbers than CSU fans. They should start selling more tickets to their home games, if they have that much interest then the drive to Ft. Collins which timewise isn't much longer than the drive to Boulder on game day shouldn't be much of an obstacle.

Their program is and will continue to bleed money in an era when other schools are putting millions more into their programs. CSU simply can't keep up.

@SuperiorBuff is correct. Sometime in the future CSU will have one of the nicest stadiums in FCS.

 

[FLounder]

CSU is not Idaho, they will not drop down to FCS. Lets be real, they are a tier below P5. until we go to mega conferences of 16 teams they won't get pulled up.

 

[BehindEnemyLines]

I imagine it's not just uTerus alums in Colorado, but grads/families with ties to other b12 Texas colleges as well. Regardless, those folks are already tuned into whatever carrier is providing b12 content, so the increase brought in by csewe is very minimal.

The bottom line is that csewe stands to gain but the conference stands to lose money from the move. I think the b12 can ill afford that at this time and the foreseeable future.

I would like to think the b12 brass is smarter than that. (softball)

 

[MtnBuff]

CSU is not Idaho, they will not drop down to FCS. Lets be real, they are a tier below P5. until we go to mega conferences of 16 teams they won't get pulled up.

The school is pumping over $15 million a year into a football budget that is still one of the lowest in FBS. This is not including stadium cost. At some point they will have to question the ROI, especially as they continue to fall farther behind.

 

[MiamiBuffs]

CSU is a victim of some ridiculously horrible choices made by their administration in the 50's and 60's. One of those choices was to build their stadium off campus. While CU was expanding Folsom and moving to the Big 7 (predecessor to the big 8 and eventually Big 12), CSU was wallowing in the RMAC and making no attempt to improve its situation. Around that same time, they cancelled the annual series with CU, built Hughes, and slipped into a three decade long period of obscurity that was accepted by pretty much everybody associated with the school. It wasn't until Sonny Lubick caught lightening in a bottle and they made it to a few bowl games that folks began to wonder why the world of college football head left them behind. Problem is, it's too late now. The ship has sailed and they are still at the pier, hoping a life raft gets sent their way.

The school is pumping over $15 million a year into a football budget that is still one of the lowest in FBS. This is not including stadium cost. At some point they will have to question the ROI, especially as they continue to fall farther behind.

So which is it?

Spend as little as possible on a stadium like Hughes and stay in the RMAC and be left behind? Or spend a ridiculous amounts subsidizing sports and building a new stadium and be left behind?

Im confused.

 

[MtnBuff]

So which is it?

Spend as little as possible on a stadium like Hughes and stay in the RMAC and be left behind? Or spend a ridiculous amounts subsidizing sports and building a new stadium and be left behind?

Im confused.

Long term they are going to do both.

Short term they are going to try to pretend that they are a big time sports school. They will continue to subsidize football with a limited return. They have already committed to spending millions on a new stadium which even if they filled it would leave them short of competitive on a P5 basis. They won't fill it or even come close.

They will get a short term bump from the stadium but nothing like what they need to fill it. They still aren't going to become a consistent winner, even in the MWC where they are outgunned financially.

In time the combination of appathy and financial losses will force an evaluation which will lead to a decision to either be a grossly underfunded BCS team that is kicked around in front of nobody or to move to the FCS level where they can effectively compete. Either way they will be playing in a white elephant stadium but the cost will be lower at FCS and they can achieve some success.

 

[sackman]

So which is it?

Spend as little as possible on a stadium like Hughes and stay in the RMAC and be left behind? Or spend a ridiculous amounts subsidizing sports and building a new stadium and be left behind?

Im confused.

I doubt you're really that confused. We all know the story here. CSU is throwing a Hail Mary. Maybe it will work, but I wouldn't bet on it.
The TV money is all gone. There isn't a sugar daddy out there to pick them up. The Big 12 has about ten schools it would rather have. The PAC 12 is a non starter. It would take a miracle for them to get a P5 invite. Had they paid the requisite attention to their athletic department in the 50's and 60's, they wouldn't be in this spot now.

If there was ever a poster child for not allowing your athletic department to die on the vine, it's CSU. They'll end up spending hundreds of millions of dollars for a gorgeous new D-2 stadium.

 

[MiamiBuffs]

Let the hate flow thru you (both)...

In all seriousness I was amused with Mtns argument that they cant spend their way to success and juxtaposed your post against his. Ill not bring up what we paid Jon Embree and Rick Neuheisel instead of going to market and getting a big fish once upon a time. Or that we had to use general fund money to pay for the east side of Folsoms expansion. CU and others have plenty of examples of being dumb and frugal at times as well doing the right things (IPF) to subsidize their AD and make it a success. I think about 90% of universities are in the red on their AD. At least they were until these mega TV contracts came along.

The fact is that TV time is free advertising to attract out of state tuition payers. Im sure that CSU, Cincy, Memphis or whomever the B12 offers will accept a lopsided financial agreement in order to get that TV time.