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Dinwiddie vs Murray

Bass

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Club Member
are you asking Dinwiddie or Jamal Murray?

that's a stupid question if serious
 

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
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Junta Member
They're a lot closer statistically than most would think. Murray's younger, more explosive and with more upside. Spencer's bigger and more efficient.

I think the general consensus of NBA folks would be that Murray is a Top 15 PG while Spencer is a Top 25 PG.
 

Denver_sc

Club Member
Club Member
Yes. If you're the Nuggets, who would you rather have and why?
Full disclosure: I thought it was a stupid question at first as well. But I wanted to take a deeper dive and it's a lot closer than I would have expected.

From a traditional statistical point of view, Murray has a higher percentage of makes in every category (2Pt, 3Pt, FT), and has an edge in steals and rebounding. Spencer has better assist and turnover numbers.

Looking at the more advanced metrics, they have exactly the same True Shooting Percentage (which surprised me). Murray has a stronger True Rebounding Percentage, but Spencer has a much higher assist rate. Spencer's actually got a bit higher PER and WS/48 numbers, and they have very similar defensive rating numbers whereas Spencer has a higher ORating.

The elephant in the room is obviously that Murray is almost 4 full years younger, so his ceiling is probably a lot higher and the period where he's a servicable player is probably longer. On the flip side, I think Spencer's game will age better. Also, Spencer's put up his numbers on a worse team which means he's had less support but also could mean that his numbers look a little better than they otherwise would.

Overall, Murray's potential is too much to pass up for me, but it's much closer than I originally thought.
 

Medford M.

Well-Known Member
It's a good question. Dinwiddie has a higher PER by a little over 2 points, a higher EFG%, and his win shares are almost a full point higher despite fewer minutes.

Plus Dinwiddie is one of the most clutch players in the league. It's pretty even, actually.
 

Bass

Club Member
Club Member
Yes. If you're the Nuggets, who would you rather have and why?
you know diving into the stats, i see they are definitely a lot closer than I thought and almost identical in many ways. That being said because of the 4 year age difference right now I would still select Murray based on where he could potentially be in the next few years. With Jokic, the Nuggets also don't have to rely on the traditional point guard which is how i envision Spencer where Murray is more of a combo guard in my mind.
 

Jeric

...
Club Member
If we're talking about the Nuggets specifically, I don't think Spencer would play well off of Jokic, he doesn't play well when he isn't the primary ball-handler. I don't know how good of a defender Murray is but Spencer's pretty terrible on that end (strike that, he's actually been much improved this season apparently). I don't know, I think they're sort of fine in their roles as they are and I'm not sure how they'd fit outside of it, if you said I could drop Murray and take Dinwiddie for the Nuggets, I'd probably say no purely on who fits better. If the question is whether I'd want Spencer as my 6th man or Jamal as my starting PG, I'd take Spencer any day. I'm not sure I see either as the ideal PG of the future for any franchise, so on a pure ability and age perspective you'd probably have to go with Jamal but I hope his game matures over time.
 
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Da Lama

Well-Known Member
If we're talking about the Nuggets specifically, I don't think Spencer would play well off of Jokic, he doesn't play well when he isn't the primary ball-handler. I don't know how good of a defender Murray is but Spencer's pretty terrible on that end, I've never seen a man struggle with ball screens so much and he fouls a lot for a PG. I don't know, I think they're sort of fine in their roles as they are and I'm not sure how they'd fit outside of it, if you said I could drop Murray and take Dinwiddie for the Nuggets, I'd probably say no purely on who fits better. If the question is whether I'd want Spencer as my 6th man or Jamal as my starting PG, I'd take Spencer any day. I'm not sure I see either as the ideal PG of the future for any franchise, so on a pure ability and age perspective you'd probably have to go with Jamal but I hope his game matures over time.
This is where I ended up. Murray frustrates the hell out of me and for a "projected" Top 15 guard in this league, you just can't have 4 pt, 4 ast, 4 reb nights on a semi-regular basis. My huge fear is that he pulls one of those in a critical playoff situation. Just can't happen. I was full on "Team Mayor", but you're right in saying he just wouldn't be the right fit here at the moment despite what my heart wants. Still not sold on Murray, however.
 
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