Utah will win by 20+ tonight and there is zero chance we overtake a one loss Louisville team with a Heisman trophy winner, even if we win out.
Conference Champion is the 1st consideration on their list. Only way a non-champ gets in is if that team is clearly better in every way. Louisville didn't have to play UNC or VA Tech or even Miami this year. I'm not sure that beating Houston or Kentucky, though solid they'd be solid wins, are going to be all that impressive to anyone.