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Early 2015 Season CU Buffs Football Predictions
- Thread starter maverick
- Start date
Y'all need a ring, for real.
Oh, the dreaded drive-by blast from Tini. Did you watch the CSU game last year? Are you honestly telling me CSU rushing for 260+ yards had little due to the outcome? Are you ****ing kidding me? Not to mention you do not think CSU lit us up on the scoreboard? What game were you watching?
The 6 to 12 yard gashes were meaningless
Exactly. IN MOST CASES. However, we are talking about the CSU game where their rushing yards were completely relevant to the outcome of the game.
So there you go, your **** just backed up Duff's claim.
So let's see, the 5 Factors from the link above are:
- Explosiveness (35%) - Yards Per Play
- Efficiency (25%) - 3rd Down Conversion
- Field Position (15%)
- Finishing Drives (15%) - Red Zone Points
- Turnovers (10%) - Turnover Margin
Let's apply the CSU game to those:
[TABLE="class: grid, width: 289"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]YPP[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]3rd Down%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Avg FP[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]RZ Pts[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]TO Margin[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]CU[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]5.14[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33.3%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]27[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]10[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]CSU[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]5.88[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45.5%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]22[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]28[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]CSU[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]CSU[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]CU[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]CSU[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]CU[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
So CSU won the battle in the two most important categories; explosiveness (86% win% for the team who wins this battle) and efficiency (83% win% for teams who win this battle), as well as red zone scoring (~75% ""). All of those factors are more relevant than total yards, and there is a lot of data to back it up.
Thanks for the stats. How many yards per carry did CSU have? I bet that added up to a lot of rushing yards, which helped them win. How many of their 3rd down conversions were from rushes? How many rushing touchdowns did they have from the red zone? I bet that added up to some important yards that helped them win.
Well good, I am glad this thread is now over...
FlatironsBuff
Well-Known Member
Early pre-season rumble...opcorn:
I think Casa Bonita is going to put in new facilities with all the extra income streams from Allbuffs throwdowns.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Explosive and efficient teams win. CSU was more efficient than we were, and shocking they won. Yet they had 25 more yards.
Just like time of possession isn't significant, total yards is the same.
Gonna move on now, not gonna continue with this circular argument.
Things like "time of possession" and "total yards" don't mean much statistically. The numbers support Tini on this.
But the vast majority of games that compile these "numbers" do not feature a team that is lining up and just running it down the other teams throat! When that happens, throw all stats out the window. The team that is imposing it's will and running it down the other guys throat wins every single time. CSU took it to CU's front 7 and embarrassed the program. Period.
Newsflash: It will happen again unless a couple of our Juco linemen step up and play as pissed off as the rest of the D-line. Because Solis can only go so many plays.
Same thing with "turnover margin". Most games it's a tight margin and it's not the over-riding factor. Look at the numbers for +3 per game.
But the vast majority of games that compile these "numbers" do not feature a team that is lining up and just running it down the other teams throat! When that happens, throw all stats out the window. The team that is imposing it's will and running it down the other guys throat wins every single time. CSU took it to CU's front 7 and embarrassed the program. Period.
Newsflash: It will happen again unless a couple of our Juco linemen step up and play as pissed off as the rest of the D-line. Because Solis can only go so many plays.
Same thing with "turnover margin". Most games it's a tight margin and it's not the over-riding factor. Look at the numbers for +3 per game.
SerenityBuff
Well-Known Member
As the season draws near, I like our chances more against Stanford than I do Arizona. I'll say 7-6, with 4-0 non-con and wins against OSU, Stanford, and WSU.
FlatironsBuff
Well-Known Member
Tini should probably read Holic's post. CSU imposed their will and dominated the LOS, I do not need a bunch of stats to tell me how they won. Anyone with eyes can understand why they won, they ran the ball all second half. Or maybe run the numbers on teams that finish games with at least 250 RUSHING yards in a game. I bet the winning percentage is pretty high.
Put simply, Harbaugh said that when he took the Stanford job his philosophy was based on what he had always observed as a player: the tougher team almost always won the game.
The point is that the more efficient and explosive team usually wins, CSU did both via the run game. A team can gain a bunch of yards, but if they turn it over, can't stay on the field, or can't punch it in from inside the 40 then it doesn't mean much.
So then why are you so high on our offense?
@Hawaii W
UMass W
CSU W
NSU W
Oregon W
@ASU L
Arizona W
@OSU L
@UCLA W
Stanford L
USC L
@Wazzu W
@Utah W
UMass W
CSU W
NSU W
Oregon W
@ASU L
Arizona W
@OSU L
@UCLA W
Stanford L
USC L
@Wazzu W
@Utah W
Because they put up 28.5ppg while being young at the skill positions and QB.
I anticipate Sefo taking the next step and decreasing the TO's via a improved running game and a improved defense to help take the pressure off. We were top 25 in red zone scoring%, need to improve on 3rd downs (again, running game being stronger will help). We need to be more explosive, but with an improved running game and with WR's having more experience, we should see more help for Spruce leading to bigger plays.
89BUFF89
Well-Known Member
Wow glass way more than half full kinda guy!
To me, I look at what areas CU has improved, stayed the same or gotten worse since they handily beat Hawaii last year.
Defense - The worst CU defense in recent memory (maybe history??) held Hawaii to 12 points. To think that we made a big time upgrade at the DC position, have a veteran laden defense in '15, and some solid additions from JUCO guys, I don't see why our defense should have any reason to "fear" Hawaii's offense.
Offense - The offense has shown that they are the strength of this team by getting markedly better in each of Mac/Lindgren's 2 seasons. With a veteran QB, a very good group of WRs, and an experienced OL and RBs, I can't see any reason to believe that a mediocre to bad Hawaii defense in 2014, who is learning a brand new scheme under a new, unknown DC, will slow us down enough for their even worse offense from 2014 to keep them in it.
Obviously, those takes are from 2014, but it seems to me that the only real, tangible reason why CU fans are skeptical (some even predicting a loss), is because it's an Away game. I know Hawaii is a tough game on the islands, but I feel as if some people are acting like we're walking into The Shoe to play Ohio State or something. CU has be so bad on the road over the past decade, but consider the overall state of the program during that stretch. Hawaii went 3-4 at home last year, so to use the Buff's road performance history as the only reason to predict a loss or not be confident is a little dramatic, IMO.
Defense - The worst CU defense in recent memory (maybe history??) held Hawaii to 12 points. To think that we made a big time upgrade at the DC position, have a veteran laden defense in '15, and some solid additions from JUCO guys, I don't see why our defense should have any reason to "fear" Hawaii's offense.
Offense - The offense has shown that they are the strength of this team by getting markedly better in each of Mac/Lindgren's 2 seasons. With a veteran QB, a very good group of WRs, and an experienced OL and RBs, I can't see any reason to believe that a mediocre to bad Hawaii defense in 2014, who is learning a brand new scheme under a new, unknown DC, will slow us down enough for their even worse offense from 2014 to keep them in it.
Obviously, those takes are from 2014, but it seems to me that the only real, tangible reason why CU fans are skeptical (some even predicting a loss), is because it's an Away game. I know Hawaii is a tough game on the islands, but I feel as if some people are acting like we're walking into The Shoe to play Ohio State or something. CU has be so bad on the road over the past decade, but consider the overall state of the program during that stretch. Hawaii went 3-4 at home last year, so to use the Buff's road performance history as the only reason to predict a loss or not be confident is a little dramatic, IMO.
Hawaii got much better on offense. On paper anyway. Max Wittek is a very large improvement over any QB that was eligible to play last year. The QB's we faced last year couldn't hit water if they fell off a boat.
I won't argue that from recruiting profiles from his high school days, Wittek is a much better option than what they had last year. They were still 87th in total offense last year and 110th in points scored. To continually praise Wittek as a Terrell Pryor-esque phenom that will instantly vault that offense to anything more than pedestrian is misguided, IMO.
Don't think anyone is claiming that Wittek is the next Pryor. Just pointing out they will be much improved with a capable QB. Like our D, their O can't get any worse. An average Offense from Hawaii would have likely given us problems last year.