Elon @ Colorado Basketball Game thread

[CVilleBuff]

Bzdelik's debut when they got ~7k was a big deal. It was the largest opener in some time. My sophomore year, we had some decent attendance games when it looked like we would be a Tourney team at one point and the OU game I believe sold out(or came close) which was huge considering it wasn't KU. But yeah I was used to almost always seeing the bleachers above where the band sat(before they were moved along with the students) almost always completely empty.

We're at the point where we are complaining about wins. That's both a good and bad thing IMO. Noticed DC ran a headline talking about FT woes tonight AFTER A WIN. That would've been unheard of a few years ago.

I think me and you are in the same boat Cville, neither of us is happy just to make the dance but we don't have unrealistic Final Four expectations and coasting through conference play (although that would be nice)

Yeah, the dance is just so tricky. It's all about match ups and so much can be luck of the draw as you know. I don't like making an entire season a success or fail based on a weekend, even though that's largely how it is and I get that. I want to see us post our best Pac 12 record yet (in a much tougher Pac) and get a decent single digit seed. That's my goal right now and then worry about Dance expectations when it comes and we know what we're facing. I do dream of the day we benefit from some other upsets in the dance, I admit that...

 

[Ruckus]

Good win. Came out flat, Elon hit a bunch of 3s (some contested), but we did what we were supposed to do and won.

Dust and King were struggling past few games, but played better tonight, which hopefully continues. Hop and Tre struggled. We need frosh production so my hope is we don't have games where all 4 play poorly. Can't have everyone have a good game all the time so 2/4 of them should be fine in most games.

Spencer is still a little too passive at times, but that's his game. Hope ski is ok, he looked good getting to the basket. XJ was huge. Scott quietly had a great game. Talton was a little painful to watch tonight.

Overall I'm happy.

 

[CVilleBuff]

Also, being ranked is awesome. Being able to drive around 1,500 miles from Boulder listening to radio and hear (brief) mention of an upcoming CU game against Elon is great. Exposure matters.

 

[cubuffs85]

Yeah, the dance is just so tricky. It's all about match ups and so much can be luck of the draw as you know. I don't like making an entire season a success or fail based on a weekend, even though that's largely how it is and I get that. I want to see us post our best Pac 12 record yet (in a much tougher Pac) and get a decent single digit seed. That's my goal right now and then worry about Dance expectations when it comes and we know what we're facing. I do dream of the day we benefit from some other upsets in the dance, I admit that...

Best sports tournament but also results in a weakened regular season IMO especially since higher seeds don't advance at the rates they used. It's probably unfair to base an entire season on how you do it, but postseason success in sports tends to weigh pretty heavily. But hey we benefitted from that a few years with our Pac-12 run and subsequent victory over UNLV. The season looks a lot different if we don't get hot at the right time (even if it was in a weakened P-12).

 

[CVilleBuff]

Also, being ranked is awesome. Being able to drive around 1,500 miles from Boulder listening to radio and hear (brief) mention of an upcoming CU game against Elon is great. Exposure matters.

Best sports tournament but also results in a weakened regular season IMO especially since higher seeds don't advance at the rates they used. It's probably unfair to base an entire season on how you do it, but postseason success in sports tends to weigh pretty heavily. But hey we benefitted from that a few years with our Pac-12 run and subsequent victory over UNLV. The season looks a lot different if we don't get hot at the right time (even if it was in a weakened P-12).

Yep. I wouldn't trade it for anything, just hard for me to sit here and say "we need to reach X round or we fail" when we might have to face Albany and Oral Roberts or face Georgetown and North Carolina.

 

[absinthe]

Yep. I wouldn't trade it for anything, just hard for me to sit here and say "we need to reach X round or we fail" when we might have to face Albany and Oral Roberts or face Georgetown and North Carolina.

these are the thoughts of a sophisticated fan.

 

[cubuffs85]

Yep. I wouldn't trade it for anything, just hard for me to sit here and say "we need to reach X round or we fail" when we might have to face Albany and Oral Roberts or face Georgetown and North Carolina.

I don't think were quite at the Duke level to say "anything less than a Final Four is a disappointment." Eventually when were perennial contenders advancing past the first weekend on a regular basis, we can make such statements.

 

[CVilleBuff]

these are the thoughts of a sophisticated fan.

or a cautious one still recovering from a decade in the dark ages of college sports :lol:. like many i was not sure i would ever see the day CU hoops was a ranked relevant program. And i'm not even particularly old . Our grandparents went through the Depression and remained so cautious with finances forever, maybe that's us current generation of Buff fans with expectations for CU :lol:

 

[cubuffs85]

or a cautious one still recovering from a decade in the dark ages of college sports :lol:. like many i was not sure i would ever see the day CU hoops was a ranked relevant program. And i'm not even particularly old . Our grandparents went through the Depression and remained so cautious with finances forever, maybe that's us current generation of Buff fans with expectations for CU :lol:

Ha I certainly didn't ever expect to see GameDay coming to CU, well I did but that was when football was relevant against. Now I wouldn't have been surprised if they got a few years from now, but I was surprised we were a finalist so soon (yes I expect to get it, but who knows).

 

[Ruckus]

I will be disappointed no matter when we lose (if at all) and I assume the team will be also. Even if we lose in the championship, I'll be ****ing pissed we couldn't win one more. But it will still obviously be a great season. I think the limit of where I can be upset at the season, is losing first round of the tourney. I think we are a top 32 team and should be seeded high enough where a first round loss is a huge letdown.

Can't say that for sure about a 2nd round loss until I see the matchup and watch the game. It's called march madness for a reason. If we lose 2nd round to an average team because we played ****ty, that will be a disappointment on the season to me. But if we lose 2nd round because we got beat and no matter what we did, we just couldn't get the victory, I'll be upset, but more content. It's all situational.

 

[CVilleBuff]

I will be disappointed no matter when we lose (if at all) and I assume the team will be also. Even if we lose in the championship, I'll be ****ing pissed we couldn't win one more. But it will still obviously be a great season. I think the limit of where I can be upset at the season, is losing first round of the tourney. I think we are a top 32 team and should be seeded high enough where a first round loss is a huge letdown.

Can't say that for sure about a 2nd round loss until I see the matchup and watch the game. It's called march madness for a reason. If we lose 2nd round to an average team because we played ****ty, that will be a disappointment on the season to me. But if we lose 2nd round because we got beat and no matter what we did, we just couldn't get the victory, I'll be upset, but more content. It's all situational.

Yeah if the season ended right now a first round loss would suck, not gonna lie. We'd be like a 4 or 5 seed probably and that would mean falling victim in a pretty big "upset" (although they love throwing major conference bubble teams into those 12 spots lately)

 

[cubuffs85]

I will be disappointed no matter when we lose (if at all) and I assume the team will be also. Even if we lose in the championship, I'll be ****ing pissed we couldn't win one more. But it will still obviously be a great season. I think the limit of where I can be upset at the season, is losing first round of the tourney. I think we are a top 32 team and should be seeded high enough where a first round loss is a huge letdown.

Can't say that for sure about a 2nd round loss until I see the matchup and watch the game. It's called march madness for a reason. If we lose 2nd round to an average team because we played ****ty, that will be a disappointment on the season to me. But if we lose 2nd round because we got beat and no matter what we did, we just couldn't get the victory, I'll be upset, but more content. It's all situational.

Yeah whenever they lose, it will be disappointing and could be lingering depending on how it happens.

When we lost to Baylor, I was upset the journey had to end, but I had never been more happy to be a CU fan before.

 

[Buffnik]

I will be disappointed no matter when we lose (if at all) and I assume the team will be also. Even if we lose in the championship, I'll be ****ing pissed we couldn't win one more. But it will still obviously be a great season. I think the limit of where I can be upset at the season, is losing first round of the tourney. I think we are a top 32 team and should be seeded high enough where a first round loss is a huge letdown.

Can't say that for sure about a 2nd round loss until I see the matchup and watch the game. It's called march madness for a reason. If we lose 2nd round to an average team because we played ****ty, that will be a disappointment on the season to me. But if we lose 2nd round because we got beat and no matter what we did, we just couldn't get the victory, I'll be upset, but more content. It's all situational.

We're getting to the point where there are only about 10 games a year (1/3 of the schedule) where we won't be significantly favored to win. And we'll expect to win at least half of those. From there, it's just a matter of how long the post-season ride can last.

 

[Buffnik]

I just took a look at the box score from tonight.

Watching the game, I knew that Elon was living and dying by the 3 and that it was pretty much 2 guys. But it was even more than I thought:

2pt FGs: 9/27
3pt FGs: 13/32

2 guys made all of Elon's 3 pointers.

Tanner Samson: 4/9 (and 0/1 from 2pt)
Sebastian Koch: 9/16 (and 0/2 from 2pt)

Neither player made a 2pt FG or even attempted a FT, but scored 39 of Elon's 63 points. Kind of a bizarre stat line from a team.

 

[tante]

So about Booker he had a turnover and that Elon recovered. He dove for the ball to tie it up and the Elon player rolled over him. He limped out of the game and I saw them take his shoe off to get treatment. It looked like a sprained ankle to me.

 

[Quattro]

2013: 69.4%
2012: 69.2%
2011: 69.3%
2010: 68.9%

Those are the D1 averages for FT% since 2010, we are at 69.4% (which is the average in D1 as of Friday)....so where's the issue with the FT%? Just looking at the number it looks like it doesn't help or hurt us, but when you factor in how often we get to the line (#10 in D1), it helps a whole lot. Average FT shooting team but well above average team at getting to line.

 

[Ruckus]

2013: 69.4%
2012: 69.2%
2011: 69.3%
2010: 68.9%

Those are the D1 averages for FT% since 2010, we are at 69.4% (which is the average in D1 as of Friday)....so where's the issue with the FT%? Just looking at the number it looks like it doesn't help or hurt us, but when you factor in how often we get to the line (#10 in D1), it helps a whole lot. Average FT shooting team but well above average team at getting to line.

Curious what the FT% is for teams who have made the elite 8 or final 4 in those years?

 

[BehindEnemyLines]

So about Booker he had a turnover and that Elon recovered. He dove for the ball to tie it up and the Elon player rolled over him. He limped out of the game and I saw them take his shoe off to get treatment. It looked like a sprained ankle to me.

Appreciate the info. I hope the mri is just precautionary.

 

[wyobuff]

Yeah, the dance is just so tricky. It's all about match ups and so much can be luck of the draw as you know. I don't like making an entire season a success or fail based on a weekend, even though that's largely how it is and I get that. I want to see us post our best Pac 12 record yet (in a much tougher Pac) and get a decent single digit seed. That's my goal right now and then worry about Dance expectations when it comes and we know what we're facing. I do dream of the day we benefit from some other upsets in the dance, I admit that...

I thought SDSU Was going to do the dirty work for us in the pit 2 years ago. They came so damn close.

 

[Scotch]

2013: 69.4%
2012: 69.2%
2011: 69.3%
2010: 68.9%

Those are the D1 averages for FT% since 2010, we are at 69.4% (which is the average in D1 as of Friday)....so where's the issue with the FT%? Just looking at the number it looks like it doesn't help or hurt us, but when you factor in how often we get to the line (#10 in D1), it helps a whole lot. Average FT shooting team but well above average team at getting to line.

Its not so much that they're missing them, its when they're missing them. Elon got to within 7 points inside the last 10 minutes of the game. During that run the Buffs missed 5-6 straight. They could have put KU away in the last few minutes, but kept missing ft's during that period and KU was able to tie it up at the end. Evevtually missed ft's down the stretch will come back to bite them in the ass if they don't get any better.

 

[cubuffs85]

2013: 69.4%
2012: 69.2%
2011: 69.3%
2010: 68.9%

Those are the D1 averages for FT% since 2010, we are at 69.4% (which is the average in D1 as of Friday)....so where's the issue with the FT%? Just looking at the number it looks like it doesn't help or hurt us, but when you factor in how often we get to the line (#10 in D1), it helps a whole lot. Average FT shooting team but well above average team at getting to line.

I expect them to be better than *average* in this aspect.

 

[Buffnik]

I expect them to be better than *average* in this aspect.

I'd take the 71% range. That puts them in the top half of the nation and right where Louisville & Michigan were last year.

As Scotch pointed out, the success at pressure FTs is really what counts on percentage. Otherwise, volume is the big factor that correlates to wins -- and the Buffs are elite at getting to the line so far.

 

[Quattro]

Curious what the FT% is for teams who have made the elite 8 or final 4 in those years?

Not sure, when I'm done with my finals today I'll look it up, would be pretty interesting.

I expect them to be better than *average* in this aspect.

Have you heard of the 'Four Factors' that were derived by Dean Oliver? Here they are in order of importance (#1 will have more weight than #4)

1. Effective FG%
2. Turnover%
3. Off. Reb.%
4. FTA/FGA

I'd argue that getting to the line is more important than how much above/below average our FT% is, so I'm not concered. We get to the line on 59% of our possessions, that's really good and gives us a lot more chances to get some points and offensive rebounds off of misses. Would it be great and would it help if we were significantly above average in the FT% department? Absolutely but here is a quick example of last years national champion, Louisville.

The D1 average last year, as listed above (2013), was 69.4%. Louisville shot 70.9% (2.2% above average) from the stripe but they got to the line on 40% of their possessions, which was #71 in D1. I'm going to further look into it with more examples but I think it's a safe assumption given the four factors that (FTA/FGA)>FT%, although you can't completely discount it.

Its not so much that they're missing them, its when they're missing them. Elon got to within 7 points inside the last 10 minutes of the game. During that run the Buffs missed 5-6 straight. They could have put KU away in the last few minutes, but kept missing ft's during that period and KU was able to tie it up at the end. Evevtually missed ft's down the stretch will come back to bite them in the ass if they don't get any better.

Good point. I didn't get to watch the game last night so I'm just going off of the box score but the KU game our FT shooting did almost kill us, thankfully we got to the line on 66.1% of our possessions and KU only got their on 39.2% because they didn't shoot well either. The good news is that I don't expect Spencer to miss many FTs going forward and Spencer (86%), Ski (76%), and Scott (82%) all shoot a decent amount above average and Scott and Spencer are good at getting to the line. We really need Gordon (57.1%) and XJ (60.5%) for our starters to improve their FT%, and of course the three freshman.

 

[cubuffs85]

Not sure, when I'm done with my finals today I'll look it up, would be pretty interesting.


Have you heard of the 'Four Factors' that were derived by Dean Oliver? Here they are in order of importance (#1 will have more weight than #4)

1. Effective FG%
2. Turnover%
3. Off. Reb.%
4. FTA/FGA

I'd argue that getting to the line is more important than how much above/below average our FT% is, so I'm not concered. We get to the line on 59% of our possessions, that's really good and gives us a lot more chances to get some points and offensive rebounds off of misses. Would it be great and would it help if we were significantly above average in the FT% department? Absolutely but here is a quick example of last years national champion, Louisville.

The D1 average last year, as listed above (2013), was 69.4%. Louisville shot 70.9% from the stripe but they got to the line on 40% of their possessions, which was #71 in D1. I'm going to further look into it with more examples but I think it's a safe assumption given the four factors that (FTA/FGA)>FT%, although you can't completely discount it.

Sure getting to the line is generally more important except in the last few minutes when you can't convert and give the other team a chance to win. I don't disagree with the priority list and no I hadn't heard of it, but thanks for sharing. Just because it's #4 doesn't mean I'm satisfied however. I expect to be better than we have been in this game and against KU. When we have Louisville talent, I don't think converting FTs will be so important.

 

[Quattro]

Sure getting to the line is generally more important except in the last few minutes when you can't convert and give the other team a chance to win. I don't disagree with the priority list and no I hadn't heard of it, but thanks for sharing. Just because it's #4 doesn't mean I'm satisfied however. I expect to be better than we have been in this game and against KU. When we have Louisville talent, I don't think converting FTs will be so important.

Here are the two teams adj. efficiency...

Adj. Off. Efficiency: 109.0 (#67)/105.9 (#3)
Adj. Def. Efficiency: 93.9 (#20)/87.7 (#1)

Which team is which?

 

[BeBe]

2013: 69.4%
2012: 69.2%
2011: 69.3%
2010: 68.9%

Those are the D1 averages for FT% since 2010, we are at 69.4% (which is the average in D1 as of Friday)....so where's the issue with the FT%? Just looking at the number it looks like it doesn't help or hurt us, but when you factor in how often we get to the line (#10 in D1), it helps a whole lot. Average FT shooting team but well above average team at getting to line.

I think the problem is that the FT% has dropped off quite a bit in the past few games after they started the season doing quite well.

 

[Buffnik]

I think the problem is that the FT% has dropped off quite a bit in the past few games after they started the season doing quite well.

My completely unscientific and unresearched impression is that our FT% goes down considerably in the big games. Too keyed up early and dead legs from the defensive energy late.

I could be wrong and it's just that I'm so much more aware of any misses in those games, but it's felt that way this year.

 

[Darth Snow]

My completely unscientific and unresearched impression is that our FT% goes down considerably in the big games. Too keyed up early and dead legs from the defensive energy late.

I could be wrong and it's just that I'm so much more aware of any misses in those games, but it's felt that way this year.

spencer's FT % is directly correlated to his energy level. Outside of one or two games per year (CSU, usually), his % numbers seem to really drop off if he's in most of the game. And it's cumulative, like a hard stretch of games i a row does effect him.

 

[GoonieBuff]

My completely unscientific and unresearched impression is that our FT% goes down considerably in the big games. Too keyed up early and dead legs from the defensive energy late.

I could be wrong and it's just that I'm so much more aware of any misses in those games, but it's felt that way this year.

Then why was the FT% under our season average last night? That was anything but a "big" game. I know you mentioned your theory was unscientific and unresearched, so I'm especially curious as to why you'd mention this after a game that goes against your theory.

 

[Buffnik]

Then why was the FT% under our season average last night? That was anything but a "big" game. I know you mentioned your theory was unscientific and unresearched, so I'm especially curious as to why you'd mention this after a game that goes against your theory.

I was thinking more about Kansas.