CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
My other thread is from over a month ago. Let's put other game stuff in here now as we follow action involving bubble teams, the race for the 1 seeds, etc.
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End of Regular Season/Other Conference Tournaments Thread
- Thread starter CVilleBuff
- Start date
watching Wisconsin on DVR time now, start of 2nd half. really hope they can get the #3 overall seed, with a path that doesn't involve playing Kentucky until the CG. (holy ****, Kaminskyi just got blocked).
bracket prediction geeks -- whose projections have you found to be the most accurate over the last few years?
bracket prediction geeks -- whose projections have you found to be the most accurate over the last few years?
The Bracket Project compiled all this and ranked the predictors over the past 3 years.
Andy Bottoms from "Assembly Call" (Indiana Hoosiers site) was #1. Bracketology LINK
No surprise, but Joe Lunardi is #44. ESPN will pretend otherwise. He's good at predicting who makes the Dance, but I can get as close as him based solely on RPI.
http://bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
The ACC champions send their congratulations :thumbsup:
The 8th to 11th place finishers in the Pac12 send their congratulations.
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
Small conference championship games to pay attention to (for those who think the NIT is still a possibility)-
ASUN-N. Florida vs. SC Upstate-N. Florida is the regular season champ (and is heading to the NIT if they lose)
oh ****. Bottoms has Wisconsin as a 2 in Kentucky's bracket. if he's right, Badgers better win out.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
8th-10th now biatch
Kind of surprised by the way Davidson handled VCU.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
VCU has had the injury bug hit in a huge way. Not the same team they were a few weeks ago
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
Lost a ton of respect for him in 2011, and I don't take him real seriously anymore-Lunardi was fairly confident we'd make the tournament that year, and I remember Jerry Palm saying we weren't even close to Mike Evans on the radio that Monday. Most of these guys tend to rely too much on RPI. Look at A&M as an example. The only thing on their resume that will grab you is a sweep of LSU (4th best in a bad league....and an RPI of 55). Both Lunardi and Palm have them in without having to play in the play-in games..........I'd bet money that they miss the tournament without a run to at least the SEC semis.....
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
The thing about Lunardi's confidence on us in 2011 is that our RPI was extremely perilous. I believe we were 66th. Valparaiso is 66 right now and that's not really applicable, but Miami is 65th. In many ways, we were similar in 2011 to Miami this season. Some stupid as **** losses, but some nice wins
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
mid 60s RPI won't get it done-When I look at teams like the Aggies, or even little brother, the only good RPI does for me is show me where the really bad losses on somebody's resume (If they aren't obvious-see Texas Southern beating Michigan State). Its all about who you've beaten.
The ACC tourney should be fun to watch, dog fight.
Big 12 is going to be nuts also.
Just think if Maryland hadn't bolted for the Big 10 and Syracuse was gonna play as well, deep field. Yeah Big 12 should be good too.
NBA Draft isn't helping. 6 first round picks last year and 3 each the previous 3 years. Plus a few programs have found themselves in a bit of a rut recently compared to where they are historically. (UCLA, Furd, Cal, etc.)
Doesn't Stanford seem very up and down in hoops over the years? Kind of like football I guess. They never seem to sustain anything for long periods of time.
I just would think that if basketball is about having the best players impact players and there are only a handful of them compared to football, the Pac12 would have anyone west of the rockies locked down. It is crazy how the mid majors/liberal arts colleges are able to out recruit our league in so many cases.
If you look at the way the bubble works, pretty much any major conference program with an RPI in the 40s is a lock. Teams in the 50s are on the bubble. Teams in the 60s are living on a prayer. For the mid-majors, it's the same only subtract 10 (30s lock, 40s bubble, 50s living on a prayer). The main tiebreakers you want to look at are the records against the Top 50 & Top 100 along with the non-conference strength of schedule the team played. Whether a team is hot at the end of the season doesn't seem to matter like it used to now that there's so much focus on non-con SOS and the "body of work" for the entire season.
Quick notes on NCAA tournament selection (info through 2012 tourney):
The highest rated team left out: #21 Missouri St, #30 Hofstra (2006), #30 Air Force (2007).
... among the big six: #40 Cincinnati (2006). The "big six" conferences were: ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, Pac 10, SEC thru 2012.
The lowest rated teams to get at-large bids (ALB): #67 USC, #64 Marquette (2011), #63 NC State (2005), #63 Stanford (2007).
Quick notes on NCAA tournament selection (info through 2012 tourney):
The highest rated team left out: #21 Missouri St, #30 Hofstra (2006), #30 Air Force (2007).
... among the big six: #40 Cincinnati (2006). The "big six" conferences were: ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, Pac 10, SEC thru 2012.
The lowest rated teams to get at-large bids (ALB): #67 USC, #64 Marquette (2011), #63 NC State (2005), #63 Stanford (2007).
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Seeing USC 2011 just scratched the scab off an old wound
Indiana in trouble. Just lost at home to Michigan State. IU was RPI #53 coming in. This one looks particularly bad because MSU beat them without Brandon Dawson (leading rebounder, double digit scorer & glue guy senior). Hoosiers have got to be on the wrong side of the bubble now.
Hoosiers are not a tourney team as they stand. Lost three straight at home.... Yuk. They were playing better early, but competition has learned to exploit their lack of size, and Crean's defense has steadily deteriorated in scheme. The needs of IU and CU are almost exact opposite. CU needs the guard play that IU offers, IU needs the depth at size that exists on CU.
On the sunnyside, I am enjoying this little bounce in CU fortunes. It helps recruiting, and helps team chemistry per the off season. Win today, keep it going....
A bunch of bubble games just finished up:
#55 LSU won at Arkansas
#42 Oklahoma State lost at West Virginia
#41 Xavier won at Creighton
#46 Texas A&M lost vs Alabama
#35 Temple won vs UConn (should lock the Owls into the Dance)
Also, a potential "Bubble Buster" going on in the Missouri Valley tournament. Illinois State is trailing Wichita State 54-55 with 3:39 left. WSU and N. Iowa are locks, but it's a 2-bid league unless someone else wins the conference tourney.
#55 LSU won at Arkansas
#42 Oklahoma State lost at West Virginia
#41 Xavier won at Creighton
#46 Texas A&M lost vs Alabama
#35 Temple won vs UConn (should lock the Owls into the Dance)
Also, a potential "Bubble Buster" going on in the Missouri Valley tournament. Illinois State is trailing Wichita State 54-55 with 3:39 left. WSU and N. Iowa are locks, but it's a 2-bid league unless someone else wins the conference tourney.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
That's definitely not going to do Wichita St any favors in the seeding department.
Could drop them to a 5. They were a solid 3 if they won the MVC tourney.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Yeah, seems like the conventional wisdom had them as a 4 before this so not even reaching the MVC final could certainly drop them to a 5. May not sound like a big deal in the long run, but there's a huge drop off in quality between seeds 12 and 13 typically.