Washington is very much a bubble team, but I think on the low end of that bubble ranking. Like most bubble teams, they have a lot of work to do. Currently 54 in Kenpom, 65 in NET.
They have a similar resume to Gonzaga, Butler, Iowa, Syracuse, and Florida. All have no Quad 1 wins, a few Quad 2 wins, and no Quad 3-4 losses. The game to getting in the tournament is to avoid ugly losses in non-conference and hope for a few quad 1 wins.
So compare Washington to Florida (who is about a 12 seed on most sites). Washington is 0-5 in Quad 1 and Florida is 03. if Washington swapped out two of their Quad 1 games for Quad 4, which is what Florida did, and sat a 9-6, would you rank them the same?