How worried are you about the Hawaii game?

[Leon Sandcastle]

No, not a one way street. Just that it can be an equalizer to a talent disparity. Throw in that we are on the road playing at 11pm MST against a 2 new coordinators, and it raises pause in feeling like this should be the day that we see a substantially improved team. It likely (read not definitely) will not present itself that way. History shows as much for many teams across the country every year.

That being said, I see us blowing CSU out of the water this year, 2 weeks later.

 

[Darth Snow]

I feel like we should win, but will find a way to make it closer than it needs to be. Really worried about their offense coming out and lighting us up early until we figure it out and settle down. I expect a high scoring affair.

The CSU game is where my real fear lies.

 

[pcbuff]

How many road wins does Colorado have in the last 7 years?

3

Superb job of summarizing the state of fandom versus reality we find ourselves in every off season, where guys and gals here predict up to seven wins and a bowl game.

So, in the spirit of the thread, CU by thirty bitches.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

I am not making comparisons to this team by any stretch, but a good example is our season opener in 2001...and that was even at home. I know Fresno State was a talented team that year, but no one could convince me that their team could hold a candle to our talent level that year. Mental mistakes can kill a team more than anything else and it makes a team look grossly more deficient than it really is.

Eh, talent as a whole, you're probably right. However, they weren't far behind with the best QB in the country and a team that swept it's OOC schedule that included CU (Big 12 Champs and ended up a top 5 program), Oregon State (#10) and Wisconsin (#23). They ended the season 11-3 and ranked #20.

I get your overall point and agree with it to a certain extent but it's slightly different situations.

 

[CUFan]

This is an easy feeling to have, but I would warn that first games are notoriously sloppy. We could be markedly improved as a team and not reflect it in a season opener, on the road, in HI. I expect us to win personally, but I also would not be surprised if we faltered because we do NOT have the talent to overwhelm anyone and overcome a plethora of mental mistakes that can happen in a first game....it's just the way it goes in season openers. I expect us to be as well prepared as we can be, but the wild card in this all is the new DC/OC....that is bound to throw some wrinkles into this matchup that we are not prepared for....and that concerns me.

I am not making comparisons to this team by any stretch, but a good example is our season opener in 2001...and that was even at home. I know Fresno State was a talented team that year, but no one could convince me that their team could hold a candle to our talent level that year. Mental mistakes can kill a team more than anything else and it makes a team look grossly more deficient than it really is.

All certainly true. First games are usually messy, and were particularly that way under Barnett (unless my memory is warped). His teams almost never seemed to be ready early. Honestly, part of my post was trying to imply that we better be more prepared and more polished than our opponents in game 1 and the games beyond. This is something that must be taught by our coaches and our players must buy in for this program to rise. There is no margin for error for a team trying to rise and with the talent we've got. So, if we come out against Hawaii with a lot of mistakes, penalties and generally just looking like an early season Barnett team, I'm not going to be pleased. Most of these kids have seen a lot of game time and should know what to expect.

The above expectation might be unrealistic, but I am done holding CU to ever lower standards. It time to expect something meaningful from these coaches and players.

 

[MiamiBuffs]

This is kind of where I am as well. For all the hand wringing over our recruiting, our average class rank over the last 5 years is far and away better than any of our OOC opponents. We *should* be 4-0 heading into the conference schedule. Anything less and it'll be a disappointment, IMO.

This is where I am at as well. We have more talent, better coaching, and return more starters. Plus, our JUCO additions + Samson widens that gap.

This is where I am as well. Just to reiterate. :lol:

I am not quite there yet.

 

[dply]

Where do you guys get your memory loss drink? I probably need some before I join the "we will be better" conga line.

 

[WizzersGhost]

I am not making comparisons to this team by any stretch, but a good example is our season opener in 2001...and that was even at home. I know Fresno State was a talented team that year, but no one could convince me that their team could hold a candle to our talent level that year. Mental mistakes can kill a team more than anything else and it makes a team look grossly more deficient than it really is.

Craig Ochs lost that game. Everybody knows that! Just ask Gary Barnett.

That said. UH usually plays tough at home because of jet lag and disinterest on the part of other teams.

Somehow, I don't believe J. Leavitt will allow that as an excuse for his unit in particular and HCMM for the team as a whole. If they're close at half, the sound you hear coming from the CU locker room will not be a new Hawaiian volcano.

 

[DBT]

Craig Ochs lost that game. Everybody knows that! Just ask Gary Barnett.

That said. UH usually plays tough at home because of jet lag and disinterest on the part of other teams.

Somehow, I don't believe J. Leavitt will allow that as an excuse for his unit in particular and HCMM for the team as a whole. If they're close at half, the sound you hear coming from the CU locker room will not be a new Hawaiian volcano.

Jet lag sure as hell better not be an excuse for the first game of the year, :lol:

 

[leftybuff]

Jet lag sure as hell better not be an excuse for the first game of the year, :lol:

"We lost our focus on the bus...." Ellen, circa 1997.

 

[SINKRATZ]

I'd say worried to....quite worried.

 

[absinthe]

I said it earlier the only reason they didnt beat us in boulder last year was attrocious QB play, they replaced that QB which should be a huge upgrade. If it proves to be the case, we'll be in trouble.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

I said it earlier the only reason they didnt beat us in boulder last year was attrocious QB play, they replaced that QB which should be a huge upgrade. If it proves to be the case, we'll be in trouble.

Way too much has changed for both teams to use last year's results as any indication as how the game in 2015 will play out.

 

[Darth Snow]

Way too much has changed for both teams to use last year's results as any indication as how the game in 2015 will play out.

Is there a reasonable argument to be made for Hawaii beating CU this year? Or must all arguments be dismissed out of hand?

 

[Quattro]

I said it earlier the only reason they didnt beat us in boulder last year was attrocious QB play, they replaced that QB which should be a huge upgrade. If it proves to be the case, we'll be in trouble.

Their punter pinning us inside our 20 6 times didn't do much go affect the outcome...

 

[slider]

Way too much has changed for both teams to use last year's results as any indication as how the game in 2015 will play out.

FAIL.

That's actually the best indicator

 

[J.R. Ewing]

Their punter pinning us inside our 20 6 times didn't do much go affect the outcome...

So we're hopeful that we'll win because they lost their punter?

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Is there a reasonable argument to be made for Hawaii beating CU this year? Or must all arguments be dismissed out of hand?

Sure, there's a reasonable argument to made, but with major staff and personnel changes for both teams, I don't think that argument begins with last year's result.

 

[Darth Snow]

Sure, there's a reasonable argument to made, but with major staff and personnel changes for both teams, I don't think that argument begins with last year's result.

If we are throwing out last year's results and adjusting for major changes, where does it begin?

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

FAIL.

That's actually the best indicator

With a new QB, OC and DC for them and a new DC for us, also not to mention it's the first game of the year and at a different location, how are last year's results at all relevant?

 

[Shldr2Shldr]

I said it earlier the only reason they didnt beat us in boulder last year was attrocious QB play, they replaced that QB which should be a huge upgrade. If it proves to be the case, we'll be in trouble.

I would expect their D to take a step back. They graduated 22 players. I can't find their depth chart online, but of those 22 players 9 were on defense. So not only are they losing a lot of experience on that side of the ball, they are also changing coaches. The offense is losing their leading rusher, 2 starting OL and 2 primary backup OL. The ST is graduating 2 punters and their place kicker.

They graduated a ton of depth and a ton of experience and are replacing a coordinator. Their offense should be able to absorb the loss of their QB especially because they are upgrading the position with a transfer. The rainbows are always tough in hawaii, especially when we will be playing at 11pm local time, but if the buffs take the game seriously things should work out fine.

 

[Darth Snow]

I would expect their D to take a step back. They graduated 22 players. I can't find their depth chart online, but of those 22 players 9 were on defense. So not only are they losing a lot of experience on that side of the ball, they are also changing coaches. The offense is losing their leading rusher, 2 starting OL and 2 primary backup OL. The ST is graduating 2 punters and their place kicker.

They graduated a ton of depth and a ton of experience and are replacing a coordinator. Their offense should be able to absorb the loss of their QB especially because they are upgrading the position with a transfer. The rainbows are always tough in hawaii, especially when we will be playing at 11pm local time, but if the buffs take the game seriously things should work out fine.

This is a good response.

Edit: it's not complete, and misses the Buff's issues, but it makes good points.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

If we are throwing out last year's results and adjusting for major changes, where does it begin?

I think nik summed it up well early in the thread...

Before seeing how it plays out, my intuition is:

CU DC change = positive for the Buffs
UH OC change = positive for the Bows
UH DC change = negative for the Bows

After the coordinator unknowns, I think the conversation moves to how their QB performs. He may have the potential to be better than their previous one and could potentially outplay Sefo (maybe even dominate), but he's only played in 5 games and thrown 26 passes in his career. They have 3 huge changes from last year that are complete unknowns at 3 pretty important staff and personnel positions.

 

[J.R. Ewing]

Hawaii pushed us around last year, but we should have the advantage in the trenches this year.

Bill Connelly 2015 Hawaii preview is up. http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo.../hawaii-football-2015-preview-schedule-roster

Like all his previews, it is a good read.

 

[Darth Snow]

I think nik summed it up well early in the thread...



After the coordinator unknowns, I think the conversation moves to how their QB performs. He may have the potential to be better than their previous one and could potentially outplay Sefo (maybe even dominate), but he's only played in 5 games and thrown 26 passes in his career. They have 3 huge changes from last year that are complete unknowns at 3 pretty important staff and personnel positions.

You realize where you are implicitly starting from, right? Of course you don't.

 

[Quattro]

So we're hopeful that we'll win because they lost their punter?

No, just that us being pinned so deep all 2nd half made it tougher to move the ball. Their QB sucked, but that punter kept them in the game.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

You realize where you are implicitly starting from, right? Of course you don't.

I just don't understand why this has to be so complicated. Hawaii has a new OC, DC and QB among losing 9 defensive players, their leading rusher, 2 starting OL, their punter and their place kicker. (Thank you for that info Shldr2Shldr) n Once all the staff and personnel changes are taken into consideration for them, you can look to our changes at DC and Secondary coach, among a few new OL and some other additions on the DL.

Taking everything into account, I just simply don't believe last year's outcome has much bearing on this year's game.

Maybe you can add value to this discussion by giving your opinion, if you have such a problem with mine. Talk about exhausting.

 

[Shldr2Shldr]

This is a good response.

Edit: it's not complete, and misses the Buff's issues, but it makes good points.

Listing the buffs problems would take a while.

However, in general, we didn't graduate much depth so we should be more experienced as far as the roster is concerned. It will be the first test for our OL, but I think we have some talent there to absorb the change. Special teams will be interesting. New kickers seem to never have a smooth transition, but I like that talent that is back there. Punting should be good. PK will probably be as frustrating as it has been around here since Crosby left. It is difficult to predict how the D will respond to the new coordinator. There is talent on the D, but it has been mismanaged to this point.Generally though, I think we upgraded our defensive coaching staff while UH downgraded.

On paper CU SHOULD be in a better spot than last year while I believe UH SHOULD be in a worse one.

 

[MtnBuff]

The outcome of this game has nothing to do with talent.

Their's isn't as bad as we are acting like and ours isn't as good as some are thinking but we are still significantly more talented than they are at most positions. If it were a video game we should win easily.

What this game is really about though is can we get our heads together on the road, in the first game of the season, and win in a fairly hostile environment.

Last year we had a bunch of close games, we won Hawaii at home and UMass on the road but neither was what you would call an impressive win. The rest of the season we had some games that were close in the fourth quarter but managed to lose all of those.

This game is a must win for the Buffs. Lose it and we start into a downward spiral that most likely includes a loss to the sheep and a hard time winning a conference game leaving M2 as a lame duck.

Win it and the team can start to believe in themselves. 4-0 OOC is a real possibility meaning that we have some confidence going into conference and even if we don't get a bowl 5-6 wins and a happier team is a big step up from last year.

This game will tell us a lot about the future of CU football including how much longer we can expect the current coaching staff to be here.

The last time we played there we came in with a lot of optimism. JE's team had won 2 of the last 3 the year before including a road game and fans were pumped. What we got was the beginning of the meltdown that was one of the worst seasons in college football history.

Now I don't for a minute imagine that M2 and his staff have the complete and utter inability to make adjustments that the Embree staff did but bottom line is lose this game and we can start speculating on who and when the next coach will be named.

 

[Burrito]

We'll see...