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How worried are you about the Hawaii game?

How confident are you in a win at Hawaii?

  • 5 - Mark it. Buffs roll in this one.

    Votes: 16 9.5%

  • 4 - I respect UH in this one, but expect Buffs to win.

    Votes: 73 43.2%

  • 3 - Could go either way.

    Votes: 50 29.6%

  • 2 - Recent history of CU results, especially on the road, make me expect a loss.

    Votes: 28 16.6%

  • 1 - We'll be ****ed before the 1st Saturday of the season.

    Votes: 2 1.2%
  • Total voters
    169
Hawaii is not a better team than CU and I trust 'Tini that they have more question marks than we do. The game still worries me. The first game of the year has not gone well for us all the way back to Barnett's days coaching. Plus we are on the road and Hawaii is a much more inspired team at home.
I do feel much more confident that Mac and his staff will have the team better prepared than the last three coaching staffs would have and that they are much less likely to get out-coached on game day; but, I can not shake the feeling that we may not show up with our A game. I sure hope we do, a win at Hawaii gives us momentum and one win closer to bowling.
 
Good news!! Hawaii and UMass are 118 and 119, respectively, in the SBNation statistical analysis!!
 
DBT said:
Good news!! Hawaii and UMass are 118 and 119, respectively, in the SBNation statistical analysis!!
Click to expand...

As long as they play to that level and Buffs win, then I'm happy with it. SOS is not really a major concern for CU at this point.
 
DavisBuff said:
Hawaii is not a better team than CU and I trust 'Tini that they have more question marks than we do. The game still worries me. The first game of the year has not gone well for us all the way back to Barnett's days coaching. Plus we are on the road and Hawaii is a much more inspired team at home.
I do feel much more confident that Mac and his staff will have the team better prepared than the last three coaching staffs would have and that they are much less likely to get out-coached on game day; but, I can not shake the feeling that we may not show up with our A game. I sure hope we do, a win at Hawaii gives us momentum and one win closer to bowling.
Click to expand...
This is also something not unique to CU. Hawaii is 3-7 in their first game of the season since 2005, with two of those wins coming against FCS teams and one against CU. Hawaii usually played good teams, but there's nothing to suggest they don't struggle either.
 
CU is 7-9 in their openers since the beginning of the Barnett era, with 6 of the losses coming to CSU, and 1 each to Fresno St, Montana St, and @ Hawaii. Not an awful record until you consider that all 16 openers have come against G5 or FCS teams.
 
15 point win for CU. Playing against a 3-4 defense in practice everyday as opposed to running it off scout team cards will allow the offense to play better than they normally would for an opening game.
 
'Tini said:
This is also something not unique to CU. Hawaii is 3-7 in their first game of the season since 2005, with two of those wins coming against FCS teams and one against CU. Hawaii usually played good teams, but there's nothing to suggest they don't struggle either.
Click to expand...
That right there is why no Buff fan should feel comfortable. I appreciate your optimism, but it's rooted almost entirely in

tumblr_inline_nory9d4MAw1rfncl9_500.gif
 
BuffNut99 said:
That right there is why no Buff fan should feel comfortable. I appreciate your optimism, but it's rooted almost entirely in

tumblr_inline_nory9d4MAw1rfncl9_500.gif
Click to expand...
Yeah but Embree coached that team, so I put little stock in it. Sac State beat us at home because Embree couldn't figure out how to defend a slant pass....I mean...
 
'Tini said:
Yeah but Embree coached that team, so I put little stock in it. Sac State beat us at home because Embree couldn't figure out how to defend a slant pass....I mean...
Click to expand...

I will seriously worry for your health if the game is at all close.
 
We should win handily with a more experienced team. Really the only question is how do we perform on the road in the first game. Hopefully the coaches have prepared the team.

CU coaches >> Hawaii coaches
 
Luckily this is the first game of the season. What day is the team flying out? I'd fly out for the weekend and let 'em enjoy a couple of days then go to work on game prep, maybe, Monday and Tuesday.
 
Phil Steele has Wittek as MW 1st team QB over established QBs and offenses like BSU, Nevada and CSU. He also has the UH receiving corps as his second and third string all MWC. My read on this is that Phil thinks the UH offense numbers are going to blow up based on respect for new UH offensive coordinator Bailey and his ability to adapt a modern, fast paced offense to fit his players abilities. A lot of people are big on Bailey as an OC up and comer....that is why he was FCS coordinator of the year in 2014. If his career keeps going as projected he will be at UH maybe a year or two at most.

Wittek and Bailey correct the two causes of UH's anemic offenses under Chow. 1) Lack of an even semi-decent QB and 2) Chow's insistence on running a West Coast pro set (a la Jon Embree) even though he didn't have the USC or pro-style talent to make it work.

There is a UH article on this that provides some context:

http://www.kaleo.org/sports/terminal-ve ... a205c.html

My thoughts on CUvsUH remain similar though: CU is a decent, experienced team now and too many changes for Chow to pull off in the first game. There will be a lot of sloppy play. Hopefully our new 3-4 won't have hiccups and can capitalize.
 
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...also gotta rep that we need to bang on that UH Dline.

This brings up another CU issue for 2015. Can we stop the RB by committee and just go with Powell as the powerback/FB and maybe Lindsay as scatback? Rational:
1) Despite splitting the carries Powell still gets the most yardage...even as the short yardage back!
2) Like body blows, hard running pays dividends that don't show up in the stats.
3) Got to give at most two backs a chance to get a rhythm.
4) Rhythm on interior run blocking: Got to turn 3rd and a fews into new downs instead of field goal attempts.
5) Powell is a senior that's always given good effort and who should be motivated to have a standout year.
 
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Those three teams all lost a senior qb, none are proven. Csu does not have an established offense with a brand new coach and system.


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'Tini said:
Those three teams all lost a senior qb, none are proven. Csu does not have an established offense with a brand new coach and system.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Agreed, but their QBs have been in the system and they still return most of their OLs. CSU returns most of it's OL and future pro wr Rashard Higgins. For Phil to name a new QB transfer, on a team that was terrible at QB last year...and I know this is the MWC and not the PAC-12...but that is still saying something.
 
8Jah said:
Agreed, but their QBs have been in the system and they still return most of their OLs. CSU returns most of it's OL and future pro wr Rashard Higgins. For Phil to name a new QB transfer, on a team that was terrible at QB last year...and I know this is the MWC and not the PAC-12...but that is still saying something.
Click to expand...

A breakdown of what Nevada, CSU, and Boise State return at QB. QB tends to be a position that unless you are a special talent, which none of those teams likely have, experience is a huge factor in production.

-BSU
PlayerCmpAttPctYdsY/AAY/ATDIntRate
Ryan Finley122744.416165.821111.6
-Nevada
PlayerCmpAttPctYdsY/AAY/ATDIntRate
Hasaan Henderson010000000
-CSU
PlayerCmpAttPctYdsY/AAY/ATDIntRate
Nick Stevens1525601365.46.210118.9


Those teams have damn near zero experience returning. The point I was making is that Wittek being named 1st team in the MWC isn't all that big of a deal, there's just not much returning in the MWC. The MWC loses 6 of their top 10 total yard passers this year. As far as career OL starts for CSU, they are #109 nationally according to Phil Steele, Hawaii ranks #68. A pretty important stat for future predictions is returning yards%, CSU is #107, Hawaii is #43. Hawaii returns a good amount, but CSU lost a ton again this year.
 
...but Wittek is pretty inexperienced as well:

SEASON
 CMPATTYDSCMP%YPALNGTDINTSACKRATRAW QBRADJ QBR
2013142621253.88.1544014114.614.312.3

, and he's coming into a new system with all new people around him. Phil actually has as his all-MWC 2nd through 3rd string as:

Joe Gray, San Jose St
, Keaton, Utah St
, Tyler Stewart, Nevada

I get were your coming from, but Phil Steele kind of goes out on a limb to give Wittek this honor.
 
8Jah said:
...but Wittek is pretty inexperienced as well:

SEASON CMPATTYDSCMP%YPALNGTDINTSACKRATRAW QBRADJ QBR
2013142621253.88.1544014114.614.312.3

, and he's coming into a new system with all new people around him. Phil actually has as his all-MWC 2nd through 3rd string as:

Joe Gray, San Jose St, Keaton, Utah St, Tyler Stewart, Nevada

I get were your coming from, but Phil Steele kind of goes out on a limb to give Wittek this honor.
Click to expand...

Wittek also is a USC Transfer he is going to get the benefit of the doubt because of the school that signed him originally.
 
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