Just a few little things - Fun With Statistics

[AlferdJasper]

Let me say up front that I didn't set out with any particular point to make, but I was thinking about the statement that "it's just the little things" and that we were about 10 plays away from a bowl game.

So I pulled out some random statistics to see what I could shake out.

Now I happened to pull out missed kicks (easiest stat to add up), and interceptions and sacks, but granted, if someone wanted to go back through the games and find dropped passes, or penalties, or any other stat, you could make your own case one way or the other.

These stats below are ONLY for lost games in 2009, and only for the random stats I could find easily -- just a couple categories.

But here's what stands out:
we were not shut out in any games.
our biggest losses were against the two highest ranked opponents
overall, we were a couple bounces or two scores away from winning any games except Texas (lost by 24 points) and Missou (lost by 19 points.) With 8 sacks in that game, we are lucky it wasn't a bigger difference.

This isn't meant to pick on Goodman or Cody Hawkins, just pointing out that the team really was only a few plays away from winning a lot more games. Yes, you could argue that we were a few plays away from LOSING a couple more games as well.

But take a look. Just adding in the missed kicks to the lost games we would have changed the stats in these games:

vs Toledo 38 to 54. Add in 3 missed FGs it becomes 47 to 54. One touchdown away from a tie.
vs. WVA 24 to 35. Add in 3 missed FGs it becomes 2 point game.
vs. Okie State 28-31. Add in the missed FG and it's a tie game.
Even against NU, the six points in missed FGs bring us to 26-28, so close. So very close.

Of course, this shows that we would have STILL lost those games except OSU, but the point is, maybe if we tweak a few things, if we CAN fix a few things like too many penalties, short punts, etc. the team looks a whole lot better.

I'm not sure if this is a "make lemonade" type of post, but I can see where Hawkins comes off with the "10 plays and we are in a bowl" statement and believes it to be true. There were few teams that dominated us, and often we -- our own players and plays -- caused the losses, just mistakes that were made, and missed opportunities.

As I said, you could go back and do this with any statistic and see if there would have been an opportunity to change the outcome of the game.

 

[Darth Snow]

ummm. who is responsible for mistakes again?

 

[DBT]

People, fans, are just tired of losing and tired of excuses/statements. I think that, almost, the fact that if we'd been sharper (better coached) we could have won several more. But I get your point. Thats why I think we really are close.

 

[RoadrunnerBB]

The difference is good teams, more importantly well coached teams find a way to make those plays and you hear about how they do the "little things" right.....

I agree with you though that there were a couple of plays that could have turned the season but both for the good and bad. Hawkins talks in generalities though. I dont think he can tell you what those plays were or what needs to be done to fix them....He doesnt have a high football IQ. His mentor, Bob Foster admitted as much when he said Hawkins "must be the dumbest coach in america" after Hawkins complained about trying to teach a player over and over, but the player just wasnt grasping it.....

 

[HotRack]

Take away the special teams gaffes of allowing punt returns for TDs in the Okie Lite and Nubraska games and we WIN those games. Don't even need to add in the missed FG vs. Okie Lite and only need to make one of 2 vs. Nubs.

"Hawk must go" didn't work so let's try....RIDDLE MUST GO!

 

[Duff Man]

I would buy this argument if we could actually show the coaches knew how to tweak things to avoid mistakes. Did Aric Goodman suddenly become a bad kicker this season? No. Did Cody Hawkins suddenly start throwing too many interceptions this season? No.

 

[AlferdJasper]

It just seems plausible to me that with some changes in either coaches or coaching -- whatever it takes -- we COULD clean up some little things and be competitive.

If many of our games were lost on player mistakes, mistakes that are CORRECTABLE with player personnel changes, or maybe coaching the players on where the mistakes seem to congregate ... there is hope.

With these guys, these players, this team in 2010. There is hope.

But someone has to make the changes that are needed. We can see where there are breakdowns, do something about it.

 

[Buffnik]

We never got rolled this season. That tells me we are good enough to win and that the coaches never lost the team.

I probably don't think there's as much to fix as other people do. Some of it will fix itself by virtue of being an older, more experienced football team. And while we will definitely miss some of our seniors, every single one we lose is replaced by a better overall athlete.

 

[HotRack]

The difference is good teams, more importantly well coached teams find a way to make those plays and you hear about how they do the "little things" right.....

I agree with you though that there were a couple of plays that could have turned the season but both for the good and bad. Hawkins talks in generalities though. I dont think he can tell you what those plays were or what needs to be done to fix them....He doesnt have a high football IQ. His mentor, Bob Foster admitted as much when he said Hawkins "must be the dumbest coach in america" after Hawkins complained about trying to teach a player over and over, but the player just wasnt grasping it.....

When did this happen? I don't remember hearing that quote before. Very interesting,especially coming from his "mentor."

 

[AlferdJasper]

When did this happen? I don't remember hearing that quote before. Very interesting,especially coming from his "mentor."

It's a story Hawkins tells himself repeatedly. Has to do with him saying that he told a player to do something over and over and the player still didn't get it. And the mentor says, then you must be the dumbest coach in America.

It wasn't an assessment of Hawkins by Foster, it was to make a point, that good coaches are able to reach players in the way they need to be reached. You can't keep telling the same thing and expecting them to get it, if they "don't get it."

 

[AlferdJasper]

We never got rolled this season. That tells me we are good enough to win and that the coaches never lost the team.

I probably don't think there's as much to fix as other people do. Some of it will fix itself by virtue of being an older, more experienced football team. And while we will definitely miss some of our seniors, every single one we lose is replaced by a better overall athlete.

I think, in his homespun, folksy, (sometimes foot in the mouth) way, that is what Hawkins is trying to say. We are a decent team getting better. We have some things to work on, but they aren't the deal-breaker type of things, they are FIXABLE things.

Really hope he's right.

 

[White_Rabbit]

I don't know, it looks nice the way you put it, but we just had so many issues this season. Sacks, interceptions, fumbles, red zone failures, bad kicking, bad punting, poor special teams coverage, penalties, and big plays allowed by the defense. Hopefully Grossnickle sets the world on fire next year as a punter and kicker. We weren't overly bad with penalties before this year under Hawk, so hopefully that fixes itself. The sacks and interceptions went down with Tyler at the helm. Fumbles can be worked on. We still have a lot of work to do to be a good team.

 

[Duff Man]

I think, in his homespun, folksy, (sometimes foot in the mouth) way, that is what Hawkins is trying to say. We are a decent team getting better. We have some things to work on, but they aren't the deal-breaker type of things, they are FIXABLE things.

Really hope he's right.

But one could argue we were making many of the same mistakes at the end of the season that we were making at the start of the season. That is where Hawk loses people. Was anyone really that surprised when Aric Goodman missed kicks and when we gave up a punt return TD against NU?

 

[SanDiegoBuff]

As I said, you could go back and do this with any statistic and see if there would have been an opportunity to change the outcome of the game.

This is one of my pet peeves with sports and most irritating Hawk arguments.

"If we'd scored there it would've been a one score game" or "We only lost the game by one score"

Bull****. If you change the outcome of the first field goal, the whole game changes, maybe we lose by 30 instead of one score, maybe we win by 2 scores. It's a nice thing for the fans to feel good, and pretend things really aren't that bad, but really, it means absolutely nothing. A loss is a loss, we were NOT 10 plays away from a bowl game. Changing one play completely changes the game, it's not like it just adds that TD to the final score.

 

[AlferdJasper]

But one could argue we were making many of the same mistakes at the end of the season that we were making at the start of the season. That is where Hawk loses people. Was anyone really that surprised when Aric Goodman missed kicks and when we gave up a punt return TD against NU?

I thought our QB protection was pretty good against NU. Seriously, before the game I thought Tyler would get sacked 8 or 9 times or get hurt. We improved slightly. In some areas.

Just throwing some possibilities out there. And yes, I could have done the chart the opposite by finding stats to show how deep a hole we are in, that we will never climb out.

but NO shut-outs.
Many games that were a couple scores away from being ours.
We led games that we lost but should have won.

Could it be that we don't totally suck?

 

[SanDiegoBuff]

I thought our QB protection was pretty good against NU. Seriously, before the game I thought Tyler would get sacked 8 or 9 times or get hurt. We improved slightly. In some areas.

Just throwing some possibilities out there. And yes, I could have done the chart the opposite by finding stats to show how deep a hole we are in, that we will never climb out.

but NO shut-outs.
Many games that were a couple scores away from being ours.
We led games that we lost but should have won.

Could it be that we don't totally suck?

That is more telling. The O-Line and Defense did show improvement as the season progressed and as Hawkins started playing players like Givens and Hansen and Simas.

Talent-wise, we are not a 3-9 team.

 

[Daaah]

Our kicking issues were/are huge. It's not just the field goals that are missed. The lack of confidence in your kick game also changes the way you call plays when you make it into what would normally be considered field goal range. I feel bad for the kid, but I cannot wait until I don't have to see 'money' trot his way out there anymore.

And the punter. Did he get worse or did I just not notice him in the past? Holy Crap.

 

[Daaah]

That is more telling. The O-Line and Defense did show improvement as the season progressed and as Hawkins started playing players like Givens and Hansen and Simas.

Talent-wise, we are not a 3-9 team.

The Oline played well vs. the corn, but we averaged about 2 feet a carry vs osu. I wouldn't say there was any sort of steady improvement in oline play.

 

[buffs04]

How much can you chalk up missed fg's, bad turnovers, and stupid penalties as little mistakes when they happen over and over again? When the same stuff happens in almost every game - missed fg's that should be gimmes, giving up special teams scores, etc - it means that there is a problem and that it isn't being fixed.

Goodman wasn't benched until the last quarter of the season... Cody took far too many snaps this year.

I understand your point but I don't look at these things as little things.

 

[AlferdJasper]

How much can you chalk up missed fg's, bad turnovers, and stupid penalties as little mistakes when they happen over and over again? When the same stuff happens in almost every game - missed fg's that should be gimmes, giving up special teams scores, etc - it means that there is a problem and that it isn't being fixed.

Goodman wasn't benched until the last quarter of the season... Cody took far too many snaps this year.

I understand your point but I don't look at these things as little things.

They are not little things because they killed our momentum and lost us games. I give you that.

But I'm trying to translate what Hawkins keeps insisting, that we are not that far away from being a successful, even very good team. And I thought I'd see if what he calls "little things" are things that can be improved.

Penalties, for example. Surely you can teach guys to quit making stupid penalties that push us back 9 times a game. It's not a "little thing" but drilling this into someone's head "NO PENALTIES" should be a small thing that is teachable.

 

[AlferdJasper]

Our kicking issues were/are huge. It's not just the field goals that are missed. The lack of confidence in your kick game also changes the way you call plays when you make it into what would normally be considered field goal range. I feel bad for the kid, but I cannot wait until I don't have to see 'money' trot his way out there anymore.

And the punter. Did he get worse or did I just not notice him in the past? Holy Crap.

Statistically, punting was worse this season than last year. Your hunch was correct.

 

[RoadrunnerBB]

They are not little things because they killed our momentum and lost us games. I give you that.

But I'm trying to translate what Hawkins keeps insisting, that we are not that far away from being a successful, even very good team. And I thought I'd see if what he calls "little things" are things that can be improved.

Penalties, for example. Surely you can teach guys to quit making stupid penalties that push us back 9 times a game. It's not a "little thing" but drilling this into someone's head "NO PENALTIES" should be a small thing that is teachable.

Again, talking about the "little things" is one thing, but knowing what those little things are and how to get your players to do that is entirely different and it is something that Hawkins has shown he can not do...."Dont talk to me about the labor pains, just show me the baby."...Not sure what that means, but i've always wanted to say it.

Again, I go back to well coached teams and how you always hear that they do the little things right......we dont hear about it for four years in post game press conferences.

 

[Buffalo Brad]

All this analysis prooves to me is that we were consistently bad. We consistently missed the field goals or had the interceptions or penalties or poor use of timeouts or..or...or....

It was too many issues to much of the time. We were consistently bad in many areas. That caused the loses and put us at the bottom of the NCAA in almost every single category measured.

Sorry but that is the way I see it.

 

[buffsyko]

Good thread. The main downfall of this team was the red zone offense and penalties in the red zone. The fg's hurt but this team could have won 3-4 more games if they would have executed in the red zone.

Special teams also was a negative stat, fg's, awful PR avg and Punt returns given up.

Problem is, this has been going on for 4 years.

 

[Buffnik]

But one could argue we were making many of the same mistakes at the end of the season that we were making at the start of the season. That is where Hawk loses people. Was anyone really that surprised when Aric Goodman missed kicks and when we gave up a punt return TD against NU?

I hear you.

I'm hopeful that next year with the additional depth and overall experience of the team that we'll be playing more scholarship players on special teams instead of relying on walk-ons so much.

Admittedly, that's thin until we see that the scholarship athletes are actually playing on our special teams and that they are improved. It's definitely a "show me" type of thing.

 

[Creebuzz]

Special teams killed us all year, but it wasn't just the 3 points on the missed FG. It was loss of momentum. Really deflating to march 60 yards and get no points. Plus it seemed like our opponents started at the 50 all year long, while we started inside the 15. Return game and kick coverage were awful.

Penalties were also drive killers. So many false starts on the Oline. I love Beatty's enthusiasm, but he seemed to have an offsides streak going there for awhile on D too.

Fortunately, all of these things can be "cleaned up". I suspect Grossnickle will be a better punter than Dillalo. The FG competition will be opened up with Aweida plus hopefully a scholly frosh kicker.

B Lock should return kicks for us next year. Maybe Orms.

Offsides penalties should subside with more experience on both lines.

 

[AlferdJasper]

Special teams killed us all year, but it wasn't just the 3 points on the missed FG. It was loss of momentum. Really deflating to march 60 yards and get no points. Plus it seemed like our opponents started at the 50 all year long, while we started inside the 15.

The difference in our punting distance and placement and the rest of the world was significant. If you could just fix that one thing, that one "little" thing, our guys gain 20-30 yards every drive.

 

[FChairbanks]

the "little things" that concern me the most this year were lost yards and lost momentum due to penalties and sacks. those two statistics alone negated our entire team rushing performance this year.

i posted a little "fun with stats" analysis illustrating this prior to the fusker game http://www.allbuffs.com/forums/showthread.php?t=41851here

you can't win games when you lack the discipline to correct the mistakes in those two areas.

 

[AlferdJasper]

i posted a little \"fun with stats\" analysis illustrating this prior to the fusker game here

finally...if you look at the overall yards lost to mistakes...

DEFENSE PENALTY YARDS AGAINST = 225
ST PENALTY YARDS AGAINST = 137

TOTAL YARDS LOST = 1,190

those statistics don't account for impact during the game due to loss of field position and momentum. it is clear to me that the yards lost due to mistakes pretty much negates any chance we have of winning games.

that puts the season in perspective for me, unfortunately.

So what would it take to correct this?

I am serious: is this do-able? Can the players we have on the field next year be coached to fix these mistakes?

 

[FChairbanks]

So what would it take to correct this?

I am serious: is this do-able? Can the players we have on the field next year be coached to fix these mistakes?

i don't have an answer...but in my opinion the lack of discipline, direction, and self-responsibility exhibited by the coaching staff bleeds down to the players.

repetition and practice develops into discipline. if they work hard enough together in practice, at some point the players start acting as a unit of singular mind. i didn't see that singularity from this team this year.

can they get to that point next year? that depends on the level of commitment by the coaches and the players...amazing things can happen if everybody is on the same page and prepared properly.