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Looking ahead to Oklahoma State

Yeah, but KenPom has us winning all of our home games with the lowest chances (right now) are Arizona @ 51% and Oregon @ 61%


Probability of winning every game at home. So say you have three games, the first you have a 85%, the second you have a 72%, and the third you have a 65% probability of winning, if you take (.85*.72*.65) you get a 39.8% probability of winning those three games
look at you!
 
Oh gotcha, we could've lost either game, so not a bad prediction at all. We know CSU won't ever be an easy win and Harvard is the type of team that can beat us at Coors.

Very pleased to not have been proven right. Although being down 14 to Harvard early in the second and trailing CSU with a few minutes left verified my concerns to a degree.
 
Very pleased to not have been proven right. Although being down 14 to Harvard early in the second and trailing CSU with a few minutes left verified my concerns to a degree.

It'd be nice to see them jump on a team early and not let up. Haven't done that yet. Elon and Georgia are good oppurtunities to do so.
 
Don't know too much about Elon, but is there any reason they shouldn't be in control for the duration of the game?
 
I had a discussion about Elon on a gambling forum last night - (not that I agree with all of this) but this is what's being said. Everybody plans on being on Elon, they expect the spread to open around 14 and will take Elon as far down as 10. They like the spot for Elon coming between KU and Okie St as a let down game. Elon limits transition opportunities b/c much like UCSB and Wyoming they don't go after a lot of offensive rebounds and they immediately get back on defense. Elon takes a lot of 3's overall and the Tanner Samson kid is a good 3 pt shooter who really only takes 3's, if he gets hot they could keep it somewhat close.
 
OK State really doesn't have any size on their front court. We all know how potent their guard play is, but this might be a great thing for us. Sure, if you look at their roster, they have Gaskins (6'10), Cox (6'10) and Soucek (7'0), but combined they only average 8.8 mpg/2ppg/3.3rpg. The only height they have on their roster that is producing minutes are 6-8 Murphy (19 mpg/6ppg/6rpg) and 6-8 Cobbins (21.7 mpg/4.6ppg/5.1rpg).

When you break down production and height between rosters this is what is looks like.

Colorado / Oklahoma State
Dinwiddie (6'6) 31.3 min / 15.5 ppg / 4 apg Smart (6'4) 30.1 min / 19.0 ppg / 3.9 apg
Scott (6'10) 27.8 min / 12.4 ppg / 8.6 rpg Brown (6'3) 32.1 min / 15.9 ppg / 3.3 apg
Booker (6'2) 25.5 min / 11.5 ppg / 1.9 apg Nash (6'7) 26.1 min / 13.8 ppg / 6.0 rpg
Johnson (6'7) 26.1 min / 10.0 ppg / 6.1 rpg Forte (5'11) 20.7 min / 11.7 ppg / 1.0 apg
Gordon (6'9) 26.1 min / 7.6 ppg / 6.3 rpg Williams (6'5) 26.5 min / 10.1 ppg / 3.9 rpg
Hopkins (6'5) 16.8 min / 5.4 ppg / 1.3 rpg Clark (5'11) 16.3 min / 7.5 ppg / 3.7 apg
Thomas (6'8) 14.5 / 5.1 ppg / 3.1 rpg Murphy (6'8) 19.0 min / 6.0 ppg / 6.0 rpg
Talton (6'2) 16.0 min / 4.1 ppg / 1.7 apg Cobbins (6'8) 21.7 min / 4.6 ppg / 5.1 rpg

Now let's look at our top five's height vs theirs:
Colorado Average Height (Dinwiddie/Booker/Johnson/Gordon/Scott) - 6'7
Oklahoma State Average Height - 6'5

It's going to be a great game and I am happy we have the size advantage.
 
OK State really doesn't have any size on their front court. We all know how potent their guard play is, but this might be a great thing for us. Sure, if you look at their roster, they have Gaskins (6'10), Cox (6'10) and Soucek (7'0), but combined they only average 8.8 mpg/2ppg/3.3rpg. The only height they have on their roster that is producing minutes are 6-8 Murphy (19 mpg/6ppg/6rpg) and 6-8 Cobbins (21.7 mpg/4.6ppg/5.1rpg).

When you break down production and height between rosters this is what is looks like.

Colorado / Oklahoma State
Dinwiddie (6'6) 31.3 min / 15.5 ppg / 4 apg Smart (6'4) 30.1 min / 19.0 ppg / 3.9 apg
Scott (6'10) 27.8 min / 12.4 ppg / 8.6 rpg Brown (6'3) 32.1 min / 15.9 ppg / 3.3 apg
Booker (6'2) 25.5 min / 11.5 ppg / 1.9 apg Nash (6'7) 26.1 min / 13.8 ppg / 6.0 rpg
Johnson (6'7) 26.1 min / 10.0 ppg / 6.1 rpg Forte (5'11) 20.7 min / 11.7 ppg / 1.0 apg
Gordon (6'9) 26.1 min / 7.6 ppg / 6.3 rpg Williams (6'5) 26.5 min / 10.1 ppg / 3.9 rpg
Hopkins (6'5) 16.8 min / 5.4 ppg / 1.3 rpg Clark (5'11) 16.3 min / 7.5 ppg / 3.7 apg
Thomas (6'8) 14.5 / 5.1 ppg / 3.1 rpg Murphy (6'8) 19.0 min / 6.0 ppg / 6.0 rpg
Talton (6'2) 16.0 min / 4.1 ppg / 1.7 apg Cobbins (6'8) 21.7 min / 4.6 ppg / 5.1 rpg

Now let's look at our top five's height vs theirs:
Colorado Average Height (Dinwiddie/Booker/Johnson/Gordon/Scott) - 6'7
Oklahoma State Average Height - 6'5

It's going to be a great game and I am happy we have the size advantage.

I'm working on a stats preview - spoiler the size advantage (while nice) doesn't appear to hurt Oklahoma St's defense, especially their defense at the rim
 
Must be a very bad concussion, if he's looking at being out for 3+ weeks. Hope his longterm health is good, as that is the most important thing. If it's the play that I think it was, scary to think that he reentered the game.
 
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