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Make A Prediction
- Thread starter alexanderdo3
- Start date
SJSU recruiting since 2008 vs. CSU recruiting since 2008
2008
SJSU: 115 (2.06 star average)
CSU: 90 (2.16 star average)
2009
SJSU: 87 (2.11 star average)
CSU: 101 (2.14 star average)
2010:
SJSU: 100 (2.23 star average)
CSU: 58 (2.56 star average)
2011:
SJSU: 99 (2.26 star average)
CSU: 64 (2.41 star average)
2012:
SJSU: 99 (2.25 star average)
CSU: 120 (2.25 star average)
2013:
SJSU: 122 (2.00 star average)
CSU: 82 (2.29 star average)
SJSU: 103.7 rank (2.2 star average)
CSU: 85.8 rank (2.3 star average)
Gotta give MacIntyre the coaching advantage here.
2008
SJSU: 115 (2.06 star average)
CSU: 90 (2.16 star average)
2009
SJSU: 87 (2.11 star average)
CSU: 101 (2.14 star average)
2010:
SJSU: 100 (2.23 star average)
CSU: 58 (2.56 star average)
2011:
SJSU: 99 (2.26 star average)
CSU: 64 (2.41 star average)
2012:
SJSU: 99 (2.25 star average)
CSU: 120 (2.25 star average)
2013:
SJSU: 122 (2.00 star average)
CSU: 82 (2.29 star average)
SJSU: 103.7 rank (2.2 star average)
CSU: 85.8 rank (2.3 star average)
Gotta give MacIntyre the coaching advantage here.
3option
Member
Most of the optimism here is based on a new head coach (who won't touch the ball) and spring ball (where the QBs couldn't be touched.) While trashing JE for selecting Webb as "the best practice player" AllBuffs has now anointed a QB based on spring practice and ignored actual game results. Can any of our QBs get the ball to P Rich in game conditions with players lost from what was a porous OL? Did anyone watch the games last year? I really hope we improve significantly this year, but I'm sticking with what my eyes showed me last year and ignoring the hype. While I'm impressed with M2 so far, this is going to take some time and the first few games will be rough. To drink kool-aid now is just to set yourself up for a big fall. I hope I'm wrong, but I see us losing to both the lambs and Central Arkansas.
Fight CU
Well-Known Member
strong post, this is.
Most of the optimism comes from the fact that we had no business losing to the Lambs last year and there's no reason this year. We don't have freshman starting across the board this year either and we have more talent. Way to ignore CSU's issues as well while only talking about our issues. How are they going to cover PRich? Our starting OL will be just fine, especially in an offense where the QB doesn't hold the ball long and we have a OC who was runner up for QB coach of the year and set records at SJSU in his first and only year.
Plus, MM knows what to expect from CSU.
The QB question still needs an answer, no doubt.
I think there needs to be a distinction made here though. Last spring, Wood was basically handed the job and promptly did little to gain the coaches' trust, so Webb was signed. When Webb was given the job early on in fall camp, it should not have come as a major surprise. Even when he was average at best through the first month of the season, I think people still understood why Webb was getting most/all of the snaps in games. However, that sentiment changed when it became clear we were heading for a historically bad season. There was a feeling with a good portion of the fanbase that we needed to see what guys like Hirschman and Wood could do because Webb had done enough to have a complete stranglehold on the job. That is when you saw fans questioning Embree's judgement when it came to QBs. Now did Hirschman or Wood play well last season? Not even close. Quite frankly, the play of all three QBs was pretty bad.
Fast forward to this spring and we have a brand new coaching staff with an open competition. Through the first week of practices, no one really distinguished themselves at the QB spot. I was at the first scrimmage and thought none of them looked the part. That changed when Wood actually stepped up the second half of the spring. Seriously, he looked like a completely different QB. Now we will see how he handles this summer and fall. Obviously, the live game action will tell the story in the end.
I think 3option's concerns about the QB position are completely valid. Without definitive answers at that position, nothing else on offense really matters. I think the offense will look much better this year, but it is hardly a certainty.
CSU has no reason to fear this game, just like every other team on our schedule. That is half the battle right there.
I agree there are concerns with Wood, but I have a lot of faith in Lindgren in his ability to suit the offense to build his confidence and get him in a groove in this game. Confidence is key here and Wood has a lot right now. Obviously that can change when it goes live but I have faith that this staff can maintain the confidence, at least through the first three games.
If MM loses to Central Arkansas he might as well resign because the stats say he likely won't be successful here, but I really doubt we lose either of the first two. We have the X factor in both games.
I will gladly be eating crow if it turns out otherwise and will publicly do so, but sorry sunshine pumpers, I'm going to be saying I told you so come Monday Sept 2nd. I actually used to be the same way, where I could find the silver lining and always make a case for winning, but then I got wiser.
This is simply based on the state of our program, along with the fact that this is MM and staff's first game with our players. There is always a steep learning curve in game 1. Tini mentions that even Embree beat CSU his first year, but that was because he had 2 previous games to get acclimated with his staff and players. MM doesn't have that luxury.
We're gonna lose.
This is simply based on the state of our program, along with the fact that this is MM and staff's first game with our players. There is always a steep learning curve in game 1. Tini mentions that even Embree beat CSU his first year, but that was because he had 2 previous games to get acclimated with his staff and players. MM doesn't have that luxury.
We're gonna lose.
I will gladly be eating crow if it turns out otherwise and will publicly do so, but sorry sunshine pumpers, I'm going to be saying I told you so come Monday Sept 2nd. I actually used to be the same way, where I could find the silver lining and always make a case for winning, but then I got wiser.
This is simply based on the state of our program, along with the fact that this is MM and staff's first game with our players. There is always a steep learning curve in game 1. Tini mentions that even Embree beat CSU his first year, but that was because he had 2 previous games to get acclimated with his staff and players. MM doesn't have that luxury.
We're gonna lose.
I like how you only focus on our issues. Anyway, if Embree can almost beat them despite his coaching blunders and lack of ability to be a head coach then I don't see why we shouldn't expect a coach who turned SJSU into a top 25 team, had them playing hard for all four quarters against Alabama in his first game, and has been considered the next superstar in coaching by one of the all time greats to be able to beat CSU in his first game, whom he smacked by 20 last year with less talent than we have.
And I'm not looking at the silver linings, I'm looking at how we lost last years game and how with even below average coaching we win that game. Coaching blunders lost the game last year, not talent.
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Only focusing on our issues? You are only focusing on the positives.
We WERE the WORST team in college football last year!! By a mile! We weren't kind of bad, or mediocre, we were history making horrific. We ranked dead last in all of college football in offense AND defense. We are at rock bottom right now in almost every possible way as a program. Seriously, are you ****ing blind?
CSU sucks ass, but they also are in year 2 with their staff and were starting to show some improvement last year by winning 3 of their last 5. You can spin it any way you want, but any time a program ends the season on a positive note, it is going to give them momentum and confidence.
Do I think MM is a good coach and that he can right the ship at Colorado? Yes. Will he smack around the lambs starting next year? Very likely. Will he win his very first game with the reigning worst team in college football against a confident team that focuses every inch of their existence on winning this game? Nope.
boydbuff
Club Member
Valid arguments EXCEPT for the fact that none of us really knows what % of the fault for last year's disgusting performance is on the coaches. I think Tini and I would be amongst those arguing north of 75%. If you buy that, than you can buy that a competent coaching staff may have had us around 4-5 victories last year and more competitive games in the ones we lost. Meaning the data you are drawing from is skewed by the fact we probably had the worst overall coaching staff in D1 last year.
If on the other hand you look at our overall recruiting classes and lack of depth, etc. and conclude that more than 50% of the problem last year was overall lack of talent, than we are in for a worse year than some of us believe. Top to bottom I believe we are probably around 9th in the Pac 12 with the players we currently have on our team which means if our coaching staff is at least as good as 9th best in the Pac 12 we should come out around there by the end of the year. If that is true, we should beat the rammies and Central Arkansas.
1. Um no I'm not. I have openly ackowledge that there are concerns at QB, big concerns if anyone on our OL gets injured, and about the LBs and S play. Lucky for us, Grayson is a bad passer and has no deep threat to go to. CSU has their running game but that's it.
2. Yes I understand that, there is a reason why Embree and everyone was fired. Yet despite that, we lost to CSU 22-17 despite not being able to score from the half yard line and sending out a returner who had never returned a punt before which lead to a fumble and CSU scoring a TD with 0:26 left to cut the lead to 14-9 instead of 14-3. Even with how bad our previous staff was their dumbasses nearly found a way to beat the Lambs. So yet even when we had the worst staff in America we were firmly in control of the game up until Goodson was sent out for no good reason.
3. You do know who they beat right? New Mexico (#114 in the F/+ rankings, 1-11), Us (#124 in the F/+ rankings, 1-11), Hawai'i (#121 in the F/+ rankings, 3-9), and UNLV (#103 in the F/+ rankings, 2-11) so four teams with a combined record of 7-42. Yeah, I'm really concerned about who they beat last year with that elite list of teams. I also doubt something that happened eight months ago is going to hold much weight with the players.
And FYI, CSU finished #119 in the F/+ rankings, man I'm intimidated by them! You will not convince me they will win this game this year. Last season we had true freshman starting all over the board, nearly everyone will be back and have another year of experience with a coach who has coached under a HoF NFL coach. Average coaching wins this game by a touchdown.
So if CSU doubles PRich, who are they going to plug in the middle to stop Powell (who was also playing RB for the first time last season)? If they clog the middle, who is going to be able to cover PRich? PRich opens this whole game open for CU, something CSU can't say. If SJSU can go out and play hard for four quarters while they are getting smacked around by the #1 team in the nation in MM's first game then this team can sure as hell go out and beat the Lambs.
I mean considering our former staff couldn't stop a slant route against a FCS team last year maybe. I think it's too high, more like 60-40 coaching/talent, although the talent issue doesn't hold up when compared to CSU IMO.
Post weakened considerably by the bolded portion. Why rely upon what happened under the worst coach to ever wear a CU visor? That's like trying to predict where the bear will go, by looking at the tracks showing where he came from!
Systems last year were destined to fail from the get-go: O was too complex for the timing to develop, creating doubts and slowing down the players to reactive level of play. Wood even stated the play-calling was so lengthy and complicated, he wasn't certain he ever was correct. That kind of doubt is a play killer in FB at any level and it showed. Webb was elevated because he got the system's intricacies down and could at least call a play. Then there was Brown running defensive schemes dating from the '70's, all the while not bothering to coach the DB's and allowing the DL's to stay fat and out-of-shape. Cabral mailed in LB coaching, in a snit he did not get the HC job.
Combine those FUBARS with the team's division---fostered by JE playing favorites and practicing only the "1"s---and his inability to plan and motivate ( Alternately sulking and screaming obscenities is not "motivation.") and its no wonder LAST year's team was a laughingstock of the worst team evah in Boulder.
So, if you want to look backward, do so at the peril of your own credibility.
boydbuff
Club Member
We are all pulling crap out of our asses at this point and wasting time debating what might or might not happen in game 1. I don't think anyone really knows.
But yes I honestly think 75% of our crappy play last year should be attributed to our coaching. Terrible schemes. Too complicated. Changing entire philosophies from one game to the next. Not selecting the right players to be on the field. Bad game-day coaching and terrible, or lack of game-time adjustments, tearing players down more than building them up, apparently creating some rifts b/w Hawk's players and Embree's players, lack of coordination amongst the coaches, coaches in way over their heads in terms of the responsibilities they had....
Need I say more? I honestly believe we had the worst D1 coaching staff in the nation. Need further proof how bad they were in comparison to our athletes on the field? How do you explain virtually last in most important offensive and defensive statistics when our team was made up of recruiting classes (Rivals data):
2009 9th in Pac 12, 48th in the nation
2010 11th in Pac 12, 66th in the nation
2011 12th in Pac 12, 74th in the nation
2012 8th in Pac 12, 36th in the nation
Assuming recruiting rankings are a relatively good measure of overall talent on a team, last year, with coaching that did not enable us to play above or below our ability, we should have been approximately the 56th best team in the nation last year instead of last at 124th. Using those same statistics we should have been in 10th place in the Pac 12 instead of dead last.
It is hard to statistically prove that the discrepancy is equal to 75% but I believe the statistics show that our coaching staff were absolutely awful (something we knew without this analysis) and that they accounted for an important amount of our putrid play last year.
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The major flaw in your argument is not looking at the attrition in those classes. The youth along the DL was mostly out of Embree's control and we paid dearly for it. Expecting several true freshmen to hold up there is wishful thinking. The secondary's youth should have been better managed, but a couple true freshmen playing a lot of snaps was inevitable. On the other side of the ball, the WR group was just not very talented. You can rag on the scheme for days (with good reason), but a lot coaching staffs would struggle in the passing game with that group. A lot. The RB group outside of Powell was below average as well. Talent matters.
boydbuff
Club Member
You are not convincing me that using aggregated class rankings is not a reasonable way of estimating on-field performance or comparing teams. Sure we had attrition, sure we had injuries-but all teams have attrition and injuries. Some teams had fewer weaknesses say in their receiving core but then maybe had more in LBs, etc.
Speaking of LBs, we had on paper a great LB core and they played below average with an LB coach who has always been considered one of the best. I don't believe Cabral was the reason (b/c how do you explain stellar play numerous LBs throughout his tenure). I believe it was scheme at the D level, I believe it was GB being way out of his league as the DC.
I'm not even trying to defend the coaching, it was awful. I'm merely pointing out that attrition at certain positions (DL, WR, DB, RB) killed us last year. If you can find another PAC-12 team with a worse WR group than the 2012 Buffs, I would love to see it. Also, while I agree the LBs underachieved last season, that was not a "great" unit on paper.
You are using what we call Hawkins logic. Some of your points have merit, but you are basing some them on wishful thinking.
1 and 2 I can live with, but to point 3 again, you have to start somewhere as a new coaching staff at a bottom level program. Jim McElwain and CSU did exactly what a building program has to do in the beginning, which is win the games you should win and continue improving throughout that first year. They did that to close the season and now have a very real thing called momentum. If I was a lamb fan, I would absolutely have reason to be cautiously optimistic. The question now is if they can take the next step.
As for stopping Powell and PRich. They aren't All Americans, although they are very promising. Good coaches can gameplan to minimize their impact. CSU won't likely be standing their with their thumbs up their asses while PRich and Powell run by.
Where your Hawk logic comes in, is when you try to parallel us with SJSU. We all fell into that exact same trap with Hawk and Boise State. We projected Boise's success onto what would happen with Colorado. We all know how that turned out. MM may very well be a great coach and mentored under Bill Parcells, but improvement doesn't just happen overnight, and while we all love to poke fun at McElwain, he does come from an exceptional college coaching tree himself.
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boydbuff
Club Member
Again you are not convincing me, because now you want to look at specific position groups and compare to others within our conference. Our receivers were bad last year in general, but our QBs also played appallingly and our OC had never been more than a RB coach and was completely out of his league. Would our receivers have played better under better coaching with better QB play (spurned on by better coaching?) Hell ya!
So my point is still valid-our overall talent on the team for the 4 year period was 56th best in the country yet we ranked 124th in many statistics. Sure we had some bad position groups and sure we had attrition and injuries but that is part of life. And if our attrition was truly much worse than everyone else's than that too has to go on our coaching staff.
In conclusion, our coaching staff sucked ass last year, was probably the worst in D1 and probably the worst overall in the history of CU (presumably worse than the Fairbanks era), and has to bare a significant responsibility for the disgusting play on the field last year. What % is arguable, but it is a high %.
FlatironsBuff
Well-Known Member
The difference is Hawk came....and the good coaches stayed with the true brains of the football staff in Boise. MM, he brought almost everyone with him. So it lies within reason that he can replicate his success at SJSU here at CU. I just think it will take a bit longer than three years due to the nature of competing in the PAC 12 instead of the WAC.
Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk 2
I think you are entirely missing my point. I asked if you could come up with a worse WR group in the conference and all you can say is they were bad at times. I am trying to drive home the point it was a bad group (some due to inexperience) before PRich got hurt. After that, it was worse. The skill position players in the PAC-12 matter. A lot. Coaching only goes so far. And I will even point out that Embree/Bieniemy struck out far too often in recruiting at the skill positions as well.
I am not remotely implying the talent was bad enough to be the worst team in college football. I am saying expecting a team to match a 56th aggregate recruiting ranking over four years, with the highest ranking class in that time period being true freshmen, is pretty stupid. A lot of youth with a severe lack of depth pretty much cripples a football team, terrible coaching just compounds it.
I am not remotely implying the talent was bad enough to be the worst team in college football. I am saying expecting a team to match a 56th aggregate recruiting ranking over four years, with the highest ranking class in that time period being true freshmen, is pretty stupid. A lot of youth with a severe lack of depth pretty much cripples a football team, terrible coaching just compounds it.
boydbuff
Club Member
Fine we'll take out the last class despite the fact many of them played which makes their ranking somewhat relevant. Taking the 3 prior classes only into consideration, we should have ranked 63rd best team, ie. 61 places better than we finished. Happy now?
To be honest, our recruiting was at or near the bottom of the conference for all the years he analyzed, so pointing out how our WRs were the worst in the conference should come as no surprise. To his point, though, that we should have been much better than 124th, I think there is validity there. We should have.
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As BB said, at this point I don't think anyone can really say what to expect. I'm sure the oddsmakers will have the Buffs only favored to win a couple of games. New coach, coaches, offense, defense, and eventually a new AD!? Win or lose, It will be a totally different scheme on both sides of the ball from what we've seen over years past.
Now look at the attrition in those classes. What if I told you over half the players in the 2009 class never made it to upperclassman eligibility and that two 4* players in that class (Nuckols and Simmons) never made any impact at CU? Those are two guys who inflated that class ranking quite a bit. That '09 class should be the nucleus of this team with the '10 class (plenty of attrition as well). Some of it falls on Embree, but not much. The attrition in those two classes was really bad and it showed on the field last season.
You are absolutely right. The point I am making for tini is that he is projecting MM's greatness into his very first game as HC at Colorado. I'm trying to point out that past results is no guarantee of future success and to expect it in game 1 is absolutely ludicrous.