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Matches thread- Soccer visits OSU (Thursday, 10/26, 4:00 PM MT) & Oregon (Sunday, Noon MT)

I should add that the draws with both CSU and Cal State Northridge earlier in the season aren't going to help with the RPI or getting an at-large bid to the NCAA tourney.
 
MarkW said:
CU's RPI now at #37. Utah, the Buff's final opponent is #102.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the update! A few (I'm sure too many) random thoughts and ramblings from me-
  • That's a far nicer RPI bump (#43 to 37) than I anticipated, even with the 2 wins, especially with Oregon now being at RPI #105 and OSU #170. (Although I realize an opponents RPI isn't an exact correlation to predict how playing them might affect your team's RPI, and of course any week's overall RPI movement is also affected by how ALL the Buffs (and other Pac teams') prior (non-conference) opponents did last weekend, as well as their opponents).
  • Assuming the Buffs can take care of business against the Utes (which is of course all they can control at this point), the Buffs might be thought to be in pretty good shape if the RPI doesn't go down too much after playing the Utes, but of course who knows (??? certainly NOT me) exactly what committees (other than maybe committee members themselves) HAVE valued in the past over what else when selecting teams, and HOW that might be changing from year to year.
  • Regarding Utah, hope (and assume) the Buffs will NOT be complacent AT ALL and will play with GREAT hunger when playing the last place Utes this Friday. In addition to possible tournament ramifications, the Buffs have lost to the Utes all 3 times they've played in Salt Lake since joining the conference.
  • Traditionally, I know in the sports I follow more closely, a 40 RPI has usually put a team in at minimum a good "bubble" position, especially if the team is in a "power conference". (Of course, like with any other NCAA sport, things like "bubble busting" upsets in conferences that have season-end tournaments can affect who gets in.) I did find this article regarding men's basketball (http://thesportsdaily.com/ncaa/analyzing-the-rpi-for-at-large-teams-2/). Of course, I have NO idea how the committees in the different sports might look at things differently, but if I read it right, it looks like NO Power Conference men's basketball team from 2008-2016 with a top 47 RPI had not been selected. For women's soccer, an analysis at https://sites.google.com/site/rpifordivisioniwomenssoccer/predicting-the-bracket indicates the RPI "bubble zone" in general is/ has been from RPI 31-57, but doesn't break out the power vs. non-power conference factor.
  • The only free bracketology analysis I could find was http://www.allwhitekit.com/. That site's last analysis (dated 10/28) predicts the Buffs will NOT be selected. Of course, based on the 10/28 date, that analysis didn't include, at minimum, Sunday's matches or today's updated RPI's. (Topdrawersoccer.com also has a notable weekly bracketology analysis which looks to have started, but that's a premium part of the site for which I don't have a subscription.)
  • I must say I never envy tournament committee-members, as I assume any "bubble" team's fans can ALWAYS bring forth arguments why THEIR team should have been selected over some other team. Assuming the Buffs defeat the Utes, As a Buff fan, I would probably rant some if, as the prior point's bracketology analysis predicts, Washington State would be selected over the Buffs. WSU does have one HUGE signature win (UCLA ~10 days ago), which I assume might put them "over the top" in the committee's eyes. However, the Buffs:
  1. Beat WSU head-to-head IN PULLMAN 2-0,
  2. Currently have a higher RPI (37 vs. 48)
  3. I would say at worst the Buffs are tied for "worst match result" (RPI-wise) of the year, as for the Buffs the only "sub-150" RPI opponent blemish is a 1st match of the season tie at #228 Colorado State, while WSU LOST (also on the road) to RPI #170 Oregon State early this month.
  4. (***) The Buffs will be guaranteed to finish ahead of WSU in the conference standings assuming they beat the Utes. (With each team only having one match remaining, the Buffs are currently 6th in the Pac with 14 points, while WSU is 7th with 12 points.)
  • ***Wanted to note that, regarding the conference standings point #4 I noted above, I will consider that by far the least important thing I mentioned above until I see differently. That is a belief born from what happened to the volleyball team back in 2015. (For those who don't remember, the vball team didn't play the "RPI game" well enough in non-conference that year, and the Pac had a relatively off year RPI-wise overall, so CU was "only" at #64 RPI at selection time, and so weren't selected. This was in spite of the fact they finished ahead in the standings over THREE other Pac teams that were selected, and finished 4-2 head-to-head against those teams. That year, the (11-9) Buffs became the 1st Pac team with a winning conference record (after 113 straight WERE selected) to not make the tournament since 1992.)
  • Regarding conferences, I do get the sense that relatively early in the process, committee-members DO have/ get a sense at how many teams they "feel" each conference "deserves" to be selected overall (maybe based on the conferences overall average RPI and/ or average strength of schedule???). Somehow, I get a sense (again depending on how many "bubble busters" might pop up from conference tournaments) that the Pac is looking at getting around 6 teams in overall (with 5, the California schools and Arizona, already being "locks"). ASSUMING this is true, and it might be between the Buffs and WSU for the last "slotted" Pac selection spot, Buff fans, in addition to hoping for a Buff win, might want to root for the Huskies as they host the Cougars this coming Saturday. (Actually, Washington is the other Pac team with an (outside) chance for selection. However, they are a ways back in RPI (#57), and their "big" win (against RPI #19 Florida early in the year) isn't as good as WSU's. They also aren't doing that well in conference (2-6-2), so I consider them much less a threat to the Buffs as opposed to WSU.)
 
I continue to worry that even with a win v Utah on Friday and an RPI in the 30s they will be at the mercy of the selection committee.
 
Just looked again at the one Bracketology website (also noted in my post above) I could find (http://www.allwhitekit.com/), and it now predicts the Buffs getting into the tournament in one (it calls "Aggressive") of the two models it uses.

(Note- in my earlier post, I gave an indication that it might be CU vs. WSU in who gets a tournament spot, but their bracketology still has WSU getting in it both its models, even the one that says CU gets a spot. In that bracketology, they have Santa Clara being the team not getting in that DOES get in in the other ("Conservative") model that shows the Buffs not getting selected.)
 
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Two things: 1) those jerseys are cool. 2) we have to find a better color than red for our goalie. Red is unacceptable for any Buff to wear.
 
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