chitownbuff
Club Member
Just wait until Bill Walton gets his address.
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Official 2016 Bubble Watch Thread
- Thread starter Buffnik
- Start date
NCAA Tournament question for those in the know..
What are the odds that the Buffs play their first/second round games in either Providence or Brooklyn?
What are the odds that the Buffs play their first/second round games in either Providence or Brooklyn?
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
About 25%.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Last big day for teams to make a statement before the conference tournaments begin (and the upsets start to pop bubbles)
Vanderbilt 19-11 (11-6) @ #20 Texas A&M 20-7 (12-5): RPI 45. Vandy has won 4 in a row to likely put themselves on the right side of the bubble for now. They've been on a surge - this was a team that sat just 8-7 in January. A road win at A&M would likely do the trick for keeping Vandy in the field. A loss and it's on to the SEC Tournament with hopes of finding a final quality win. Palm has Vandy as an 11 in the play-in game, while Lunardi's SEC pimping has them a 9. I think Palm is far closer to the current reality of where the Commodores stand.
Ohio State 19-11 (11-6) @ #2 Michigan State 25-5 (12-5): RPI 77. The Buckeyes are still very much on the fringe. Lunardi has OSU in his "First Four Out". Once again, he's likely wrong. The Buckeyes just picked up their third top 100 victory with a home win over Iowa. They've also got a handful of poor sub-100 losses. It's odd saying that an 11-6 B1G team is a fringe bubble squad, but this is the reality of the new B1G schedule. Ohio State has accumulated a pile of junk wins in conference due to the uneven scheduling. They pretty much have to get a win here in East Lansing. Otherwise, there's just not enough there.
Providence 21-9 (9-8) @ St. John's 8-22 (1-16): RPI 42. Providence has not been playing particularly well lately. They've plummeted from the team that made a foray into the top 10 earlier in conference play. As long as they avoid any horrific losses, they'll get in. However, St. John's is precisely the type of disastrous loss that would place Providence in a highly precarious position.
Syracuse 19-11 (9-8) @ Florida State 17-12 (7-10): RPI 59. Syracuse is all over the place. This is a team that can win @ Duke, yet lose to an 8-22 St. John's. They've recovered nicely from that disastrous 0-4 ACC start without Boeheim, and I think that will result in them being cut a little slack. Also, having the tradition and name "Syracuse" never hurts in this situation. Syracuse is generally viewed as being in the field right now as ~ a 10 seed. A road game like this at FSU is the type of game an NCAA Tournament team finds a way to win. By no means does a loss pop Syracuse's bubble, but it would leave them needing to do some work in the ACC Tournament beyond winning a token game.
Pittsburgh 20-9 (9-8) @ Georgia Tech 17-13 (7-10): RPI 47. Last weekend, Pitt beat Duke and had seemingly all but put itself in the field despite that only being the Panthers' second top 50 win. Then, Pitt went and lost @ Virginia Tech and now faces another tricky road game at Georgia Tech. Neither VT nor GT are bad losses, per se, but ending the regular season with losses to those two is not what you want when you're still not entirely clear from the bubble.
Butler 20-9 (9-8) vs Marquette 19-11 (8-9): RPI 46. Butler seems to be the center point of this season's bubble. Currently, both Lunardi and Palm have the Bulldogs in the field. They seem to be in the 10 seed range at the moment. If they can win this one and make it to the Big East semifinals, they should be fine. Anything less and they're in trouble.
Texas Tech 18-11 (8-9) vs Kansas State 16-14 (5-12): RPI 25. The Red Raiders played a tough OOC and have held their own in the brutal Big XII. They're clearly in as long as they don't lose to KSU and then TCU in the B12T and experience a late plummet.
George Washington 22-8 (11-6) @ Davidson 17-11 (9-8): RPI 60. GW is on the wrong side of things after a home loss to VCU. They've got an excellent win over UVA and a solid win over Seton Hall, but they've offset that with a large dose of mediocre losses and blown chances. GW can't slip up again. They've got to win this and make a deep run in Brooklyn at the A10T.
South Carolina 23-7 (10-7) @ Arkansas 16-14 (9-8): RPI 58. An OOC SOS of 265. Last two games: horrible loss @ Miss State and a home loss to mediocre Georgia. Now comes the chance of a sub-100 loss to Arkansas. South Carolina is limping towards the finish line. This is the type of resume that the committee loves to punish.
Tulsa 19-10 (11-6) vs South Florida 7-23 (4-13): RPI 41. Palm has Tulsa as his final team in, while Lunardi has them "First Four Out". Beating South Florida will do absolutely nothing. Tulsa's fate will be determined in the conference tournament.
Oregon State 17-11 (8-9) @ UCLA 15-15 (6-11): RPI 33. Lunardi has the Beavs in his "Last Four In". Palm has always been oddly high on OSU, currently having them as a 9. I think Lunardi is closer on this one. One of OSU's limitations has been their inability to win road games (1 Pac road win). The Beavs need to find themselves another 2 victories to feel somewhat decent, IMO.
Florida 17-13 (8-9) @ Missouri 10-20 (3-14): RPI 56. It was only about two weeks ago that Florida's RPI sat at 28 and things were looking good. Now, they've dropped 4 straight and find themselves on the wrong side of the bubble. Beating Missouri isn't going to do anything. The Gators need a deep run in the SEC Tournament. Specifically, they need to find Kentucky or Texas A&M and beat them.
St. Bonaventure 21-7 (13-4) @ Saint Louis 10-19 (5-12): RPI 29. Lunardi has St. Bonaventure as his final team in, while Palm has the Bonnies as a 10 seed (playing CU). They've had an excellent A10 season. It's just a matter of finishing strong. A loss to Saint Louis is exactly the type of loss that will knock them out.
VCU 22-8 (14-3) @ Dayton 23-6 (13-4): RPI 41. VCU wasted all of its OOC chances, but they've had an excellent A10 season outside of a horrible loss to George Mason. VCU will absolutely be in if they win (they're not leaving the A10 regular season champ out). A loss won't do much harm, but will leave VCU needing to do some work in the A10T to lock up the bid.
Vanderbilt 19-11 (11-6) @ #20 Texas A&M 20-7 (12-5): RPI 45. Vandy has won 4 in a row to likely put themselves on the right side of the bubble for now. They've been on a surge - this was a team that sat just 8-7 in January. A road win at A&M would likely do the trick for keeping Vandy in the field. A loss and it's on to the SEC Tournament with hopes of finding a final quality win. Palm has Vandy as an 11 in the play-in game, while Lunardi's SEC pimping has them a 9. I think Palm is far closer to the current reality of where the Commodores stand.
Ohio State 19-11 (11-6) @ #2 Michigan State 25-5 (12-5): RPI 77. The Buckeyes are still very much on the fringe. Lunardi has OSU in his "First Four Out". Once again, he's likely wrong. The Buckeyes just picked up their third top 100 victory with a home win over Iowa. They've also got a handful of poor sub-100 losses. It's odd saying that an 11-6 B1G team is a fringe bubble squad, but this is the reality of the new B1G schedule. Ohio State has accumulated a pile of junk wins in conference due to the uneven scheduling. They pretty much have to get a win here in East Lansing. Otherwise, there's just not enough there.
Providence 21-9 (9-8) @ St. John's 8-22 (1-16): RPI 42. Providence has not been playing particularly well lately. They've plummeted from the team that made a foray into the top 10 earlier in conference play. As long as they avoid any horrific losses, they'll get in. However, St. John's is precisely the type of disastrous loss that would place Providence in a highly precarious position.
Syracuse 19-11 (9-8) @ Florida State 17-12 (7-10): RPI 59. Syracuse is all over the place. This is a team that can win @ Duke, yet lose to an 8-22 St. John's. They've recovered nicely from that disastrous 0-4 ACC start without Boeheim, and I think that will result in them being cut a little slack. Also, having the tradition and name "Syracuse" never hurts in this situation. Syracuse is generally viewed as being in the field right now as ~ a 10 seed. A road game like this at FSU is the type of game an NCAA Tournament team finds a way to win. By no means does a loss pop Syracuse's bubble, but it would leave them needing to do some work in the ACC Tournament beyond winning a token game.
Pittsburgh 20-9 (9-8) @ Georgia Tech 17-13 (7-10): RPI 47. Last weekend, Pitt beat Duke and had seemingly all but put itself in the field despite that only being the Panthers' second top 50 win. Then, Pitt went and lost @ Virginia Tech and now faces another tricky road game at Georgia Tech. Neither VT nor GT are bad losses, per se, but ending the regular season with losses to those two is not what you want when you're still not entirely clear from the bubble.
Butler 20-9 (9-8) vs Marquette 19-11 (8-9): RPI 46. Butler seems to be the center point of this season's bubble. Currently, both Lunardi and Palm have the Bulldogs in the field. They seem to be in the 10 seed range at the moment. If they can win this one and make it to the Big East semifinals, they should be fine. Anything less and they're in trouble.
Texas Tech 18-11 (8-9) vs Kansas State 16-14 (5-12): RPI 25. The Red Raiders played a tough OOC and have held their own in the brutal Big XII. They're clearly in as long as they don't lose to KSU and then TCU in the B12T and experience a late plummet.
George Washington 22-8 (11-6) @ Davidson 17-11 (9-8): RPI 60. GW is on the wrong side of things after a home loss to VCU. They've got an excellent win over UVA and a solid win over Seton Hall, but they've offset that with a large dose of mediocre losses and blown chances. GW can't slip up again. They've got to win this and make a deep run in Brooklyn at the A10T.
South Carolina 23-7 (10-7) @ Arkansas 16-14 (9-8): RPI 58. An OOC SOS of 265. Last two games: horrible loss @ Miss State and a home loss to mediocre Georgia. Now comes the chance of a sub-100 loss to Arkansas. South Carolina is limping towards the finish line. This is the type of resume that the committee loves to punish.
Tulsa 19-10 (11-6) vs South Florida 7-23 (4-13): RPI 41. Palm has Tulsa as his final team in, while Lunardi has them "First Four Out". Beating South Florida will do absolutely nothing. Tulsa's fate will be determined in the conference tournament.
Oregon State 17-11 (8-9) @ UCLA 15-15 (6-11): RPI 33. Lunardi has the Beavs in his "Last Four In". Palm has always been oddly high on OSU, currently having them as a 9. I think Lunardi is closer on this one. One of OSU's limitations has been their inability to win road games (1 Pac road win). The Beavs need to find themselves another 2 victories to feel somewhat decent, IMO.
Florida 17-13 (8-9) @ Missouri 10-20 (3-14): RPI 56. It was only about two weeks ago that Florida's RPI sat at 28 and things were looking good. Now, they've dropped 4 straight and find themselves on the wrong side of the bubble. Beating Missouri isn't going to do anything. The Gators need a deep run in the SEC Tournament. Specifically, they need to find Kentucky or Texas A&M and beat them.
St. Bonaventure 21-7 (13-4) @ Saint Louis 10-19 (5-12): RPI 29. Lunardi has St. Bonaventure as his final team in, while Palm has the Bonnies as a 10 seed (playing CU). They've had an excellent A10 season. It's just a matter of finishing strong. A loss to Saint Louis is exactly the type of loss that will knock them out.
VCU 22-8 (14-3) @ Dayton 23-6 (13-4): RPI 41. VCU wasted all of its OOC chances, but they've had an excellent A10 season outside of a horrible loss to George Mason. VCU will absolutely be in if they win (they're not leaving the A10 regular season champ out). A loss won't do much harm, but will leave VCU needing to do some work in the A10T to lock up the bid.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Vandy couldn't get the win at Texas A&M. They are right near the cut off line at the moment.
Ohio State falls at Michigan State. OSU needed a huge win as they lack quality wins in a big way. Outside of a run to the final of the B1G Tournament it's hard to see how OSU has any chance unless the committee goes complete B1G homer
Ohio State falls at Michigan State. OSU needed a huge win as they lack quality wins in a big way. Outside of a run to the final of the B1G Tournament it's hard to see how OSU has any chance unless the committee goes complete B1G homer
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Syracuse falls at Florida State to drop to 19-12 (9-9). RPI 61. Orange are probably still in, but they need to do something in the ACCT.
Pitt falls at Georgia Tech. Panthers now 20-10 (9-9) with just 2 top 50 wins. RPI 53. Still probably on the right side of things, but a one and done at the ACCT would spell trouble. The lack of quality wins is the issue.
Pitt falls at Georgia Tech. Panthers now 20-10 (9-9) with just 2 top 50 wins. RPI 53. Still probably on the right side of things, but a one and done at the ACCT would spell trouble. The lack of quality wins is the issue.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Oregon State up 53-40 at UCLA. Given the other bubble fails today, this would leave OSU liking its chances.
Meanwhile, UCLA might be answering the NIT question. They may not even be eligible.
Meanwhile, UCLA might be answering the NIT question. They may not even be eligible.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Oregon State choking. 83-82, 19 sec
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Oregon State hangs on, 86-82. OSU is by no means locked in, but this is a big win for them. .500 conference record and they took care of a major flaw: road wins
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Cincinnati knocked off #24 SMU. Bearcats are right near the line, so that was a huge win for them. Now 21-9 RPI 52