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Official Buffs Dance Resume Thread

Wednesday games we care about:

COLORADO (14-4) at Washington (12-5) - 8:00, PACN... UW is the surprise team of the Pac-12 this year. Andrew Andrews leads a bunch of talented young pups. They're athletic and they can shoot the rock. First place in the Pac-12, but capable of bad nights (losing to Oakland and UCSB). Only #62 in RPI despite the great conference record due to those losses. Buffs win would put our boys (#21 RPI) in a tie for 2nd in the Pac-12, a half game back of USC.

CSU (10-8) at Air Force (10-8) - 7:00... Not sure we care who wins this one. So I'm just gonna cheer for the Zoomies.

UCLA (11-7) at Oregon State (11-5) - 9:00, ESPNU... This looks like an early tipping point game in the Pac-12. Both teams come in at 2-3 in conference play. Huge difference between 3-3 and 2-4. Both are also bubble teams. OSU still maintains the #40 RPI while UCLA's big victories have kept them up there at #61.
 
Need to have some urgency on this road swing. Washington is off to a good start, but they're inconsistent. Wazzu is clearly the most favorable Pac road game and the one team that likely blemishes our resume with a "bad loss" (sub-150). The final road games are tough after these 2. Basically, if we want to have a winning conference record, we likely need to get at least 1 this week. If we want to continue the talk of 11 or 12, we probably need both. I don't feel wild about winning in Eugene, USC or Salt Lake (although given Utah's recent struggles, I like our chances a bit more). Pauley is always going to be difficult. That leaves Corvallis as the one place with a decent chance (and that's certainly no guarantee). Basically, after this week I think it's a big stretch to envision anything beyond 2 more road wins.
 
Our road record in pac play:
2011-'12: 3-6
2012-'13: 4-5 (wins at wazzu, Oregon, osu, Stanford)
2013-'14: 3-6
2014-'15: 2-7

Had forgotten how close we were to a winning road mark in dre's last year (thanks chards). Still, I'd be stoked and surprised if we managed four this year.
 
WasianCU said:
I'd argue the opposite. I would rather avoid the bad loss on the resume.
Click to expand...

Since Jay Bilas isn't on the selection committee, the guiding rule is that who you lose to matters much more than who you beat. Avoid bad losses (sub-150). Rack up strength of schedule points by getting clobbered on the road against elite teams. It's the formula for getting into the Dance.

So if we're hypothetically going to see a split from this road trip:

The win being against UW would be better for conference standings and conference tourney tiebreakers
The win being against WSU would be better for NCAA tournament selection
 
Huskies favored by just 1.5

Live RPI gives the Buffs a 49% chance of getting the W

O/U all the way up at 163
 
CVilleBuff said:
Huskies favored by just 1.5

Live RPI gives the Buffs a 49% chance of getting the W

O/U all the way up at 163
Click to expand...

Huskies are fifth in the country in adjusted tempo (78 possessions per 40 minutes). Should be a fun game to watch.
 
Goose said:
And I believe JG mentioned that they struggle in transition D - which is huge in the Buffs favor.

Gotta stop Andrew2.
Click to expand...

Washington is eerily similar, at least offensively to UNO. The Huskies will play much better half court defense and rebound better than Omaha, though.

Hope they learned something from that game. It was pretty ugly for a while.
 
Last night's loss dropped the Buffs to #25 RPI.

Thursday games we care about (big night):

Wisconsin (10-9) at Penn State (11-8) - 6:00, BTN... PSU are 3 point home dogs. Important game for them and their #84 RPI.

Arizona State (11-7) at Cal (12-6) - 7:00, FS1... Cal favored by 7. Cal win helps us more since we play them twice.

#21 USC (15-3) at Oregon (14-4) - 7:00, PACN... Ducks favored by 4.5. We want Oregon since we play them twice.

Omaha (12-7) at Denver (10-9) - 7:00... Good opportunity for RPI #148 Omaha to get a boost from a road win. Favored by 1.5.

Northern Colorado (5-13) at Southern Utah (5-11) - 7:00... Might be best chance for a road win. UNCo is a 3.5 pt dog.

Portland (9-11) at Pacific (5-12) - 8:00... It's a testament to how poorly Portland has performed that they're 2.5 pt dogs. Need to build on that BYU win and fix that #252 RPI with a road win.

#12 Arizona (15-3) at Stanford (10-6) - 9:00, PACN... We want Stanford since we played them twice.

Utah (13-5) at Washington State (9-8) - 9:00, FS1... Not a big difference for CU, but I'll root for WSU due to conference standings and desire to see Wazzu in the Top 150 of RPI.

BYU (13-6) at Loyola Marymount (9-9) - 11:00... Need BYU to win this one and get a road win RPI bump from #74. Favored by 9.
 
One thing really nice about how CU's schedule worked out in the Pac-12 is that RPI considerations push us to cheer against the AZ and LA schools in every conference game due to only playing them once apiece. That's a rare occurrence.
 
Good slate of results following that PSU loss:

Omaha and UNCo got their road wins
Cal beat ASU & Oregon beat USC

Buffs made a little move from 25 to 23 so far tonight. Probably finish the night at 24 with current scores, but Stanford has Arizona in range while Portland is close at Pacific... so this could end up being a very strong day for the resume.
 
I should perhaps know this, but what RPI number is likely to make the tournament, given some 68 teams with guaranteed spots for a certain number of conference + conf tournament winners? I understand the uncertainties with surprise conf tourney winners, but curious what RPI we should be aiming at.
 
aghcsm said:
I should perhaps know this, but what RPI number is likely to make the tournament, given some 68 teams with guaranteed spots for a certain number of conference + conf tournament winners? I understand the uncertainties with surprise conf tourney winners, but curious what RPI we should be aiming at.
Click to expand...

As a member of a Power 6 conference, a Top 40 RPI should make getting a bid a lock. Usually anything in the 40s is safe. 50s getting very shaky and 60s would require a big surprise with a lot of controversy.
 
Utes just abused Wazzu tonight. Hopefully a sign of Wazzu starting to fold with the losses taking their toll
 
Saturday:

Buffs 14-5 (3-3) @ Washington State 9-9 (1-5): Big one for the Buffs as this is by far the most winnable road game and CU does not want to blemish its resume with a sub-150 loss (Wazzu currently 162). After beating UCLA, the Cougs have dropped 4 straight. The Utes went into Pullman and just wrecked them, 92-71. Buffs favored by 3.5

#8 SMU 18-0 (7-0) @ Temple 10-7 (4-2): Postponed until Sunday

Air Force 10-9 (1-5) vs Fresno State 12-7 (3-3): AFA is coming apart after a having an OOC performance that was a little better than expected. Falcons have dropped 4 in a row. Really could use a W here before this season spirals out of control. Fresno favored by 7

Northern Colorado 6-13 (3-4) @ Northern Arizona 3-14 (1-5): All of a sudden UNCo has won 2 in a row , including a road game (!) and now has this winnable road game against the bottom team in the Big Sky. NAU is favored by 1.5

#19 Iowa State 14-4 (3-3) @ TCU 9-9 (1-5): Cyclones have crept back into the Big XII picture with their win over Oklahoma and the Jayhawks and Mountaineers dropping some games. TCU is about the only poor opposition the Big XII has on tap. ISU favored by 9.5

UCLA 12-7 (3-3) @ Oregon 15-4 (4-2): Bruins took care of business in Corvallis, and as a result got their RPI up to 47. If the Bruins cut the stupid losses and find themselves a couple more nice wins, they should be ok. Tall task to knock off Oregon in Eugene this year, though. Ducks favored by 7.5

Nicholls State 5-14 (1-4) vs Central Arkansas 2-13 (1-4): Rare occasion in which Nicholls is facing a side that's likely even worse than they are. This should be a win. Central is 0-9 on the road this season.

Hampton 10-7 (6-0) vs Savannah State 7-9 (3-2): Hampton is on a roll on conference play. They seem to be a notch above the rest and look to be the favorite for the auto-bid if they can avoid slipping up in the MEAC Tournament. This area of Virginia only got rain, so it should be good to go.

BYU 14-6 (5-2) @ Pepperdine 12-7 (5-3): BYU currently sits in 3rd in the WCC behind St. Mary's and Gonzaga, but they still get both out in Provo. With their RPI at 67, hopefully they can not slip up and take advantage of those home games to climb towards 50. It's unlikely, but not impossible. BYU favored by 3

Auburn 9-8 (3-3) @ Florida 12-6 (4-2): Auburn is on a nice little mini-run, knocking off Kentucky and Alabama. Tiger RPI currently sits at 80. Gators aren't great this year by any means, but going to Gainesville is still one of the taller tasks in the SEC. Gators favored by 12

Omaha 13-7 (5-1) @ Oral Roberts 11-10 (3-4): Omaha's RPI is 140, want it to remain in that top 150. They may not be the best in the Summit League, but they're pretty damn close. Outside of South Dakota State and IPFW, they really shouldn't be losing to anyone. Omaha favored by 1

#12 Arizona 16-3 (4-2) @ Cal 13-6 (3-3): If Cal's performance against ASU was any indication, losing Wallace has taken them down a notch. The Bears got the W, but it was closer than it would have otherwise been. With their RPI at 50, Cal is going to start feeling the heat of being on the bubble unless they can find a way to get a big home win like this or grab some road wins. Washington still sits above Arizona in the Pac standings, but you get the feeling that it might only be a matter of time before the Wildcats take control of first place. Arizona favored by 3

Portland 9-12 (3-5) @ St. Mary's 16-2 (7-1): This would be about the most surprising win of the day. Portland really should be this bad. They've shown flashes such as beating BYU, but they're poorly coached and don't play defense. SMC favored by 18

Arizona State 11-8 (1-5) @ Stanford 10-7 (3-3): The Pac is kicking ASU's ass at the moment, and I love it. Looking at ASU's schedule, it's hard to see how they will dig themselves out of this hole towards .500 as they've already blown some key home games. Meanwhile, Stanford definitely needs this W as a nasty 3 game road swing of Cal, Utah and Colorado is next. Stanford's overall record isn't pretty at 10-7, but with their RPI at 48 they're presumably still holding on to some hopes of a Dance bid. Gotta get this to keep those hopes realistically alive.
 
Oregon can score. On their way to another performance in the mid 80s+, up 13 on UCLA right now.
 
Early results:

AFA lost
ISU won
Nicholls lost
UNCo won
Oregon beat UCLA
 
Hampton tied at the half.

Auburn @ Florida tips off at 6pm MT. Florida played a very strong non-con schedule, so its RPI sits at #20 despite the 12-6 record. An Auburn road win here would do a ton for CU's positioning in the pecking order. SEC Network for those who want to watch.
 
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