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Official Buffs Dance Resume Thread

Tourney seeding geeks, what needs to happen for the Buffs to get a 1st/2nd round slot in Denver?
 
Saturday:


Penn State 11-10 (2-6) vs Michigan 16-5 (6-2) (New York, NY): The B1G is starting to take its toll on Penn State. They just are not good enough to compete with the middle to upper teams in this conference. PSU has 3 remaining games against Rutgers, Northwestern and Illinois in which they have a decent shot of winning. Outside of that, every game is a stretch. PSU's RPI sits at 99. They should be safe for a top 150 finish, but top 100 would involve a few quality wins that I doubt they're capable of piecing together. Michigan would certainly fit the bill. This Michigan team is coasting under the radar a bit, but they're in position for a top 4 finish in the B1G. Wolverines favored by 11

#14 Iowa State 16-4 (5-3) @ #5 Texas A&M 17-3 (7-1): I wasn't buying A&M at a top 5 team and their loss to a 9-10 Arkansas team this week justified that skepticism in my eyes. Sure, it's tough to play on the road, but a true top 5 team doesn't lose to a team with a losing overall record in any location. A&M kicked Baylor's ass OOC, but other than that A&M has a few decent wins, but nothing that jumps out. They also lost to ASU in the OOC by 13. The 17-3 record is more about playing in a mediocre SEC than anything else. This one is in College Station and I'm sure A&M is going to be determined to put in a good performance after being embarrassed by Arkansas. However, if my team has to face a 2 or 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament, make mine Texas A&M. Aggies favored by 4.5

Washington 14-6 (6-2) @ USC 16-5 (5-3): Big top 4 bye implications in this one. Last time around, USC blew a 22 point second half lead in Seattle and lost. Washington is coming off a nice win @ UCLA to boost their NCAA Tournament hopes by getting their RPI up to 52. USC is in great shape in that department with an RPI of 23. If the Huskies win this, they'd enter the second half of the Pac schedule tied atop the league. If USC wins, Washington falls back into the 3 loss club with USC, CU, Utah and the fight for the top 4 gets even sloppier. Trojans favored by 7.5

Air Force 10-11 (1-7) @ San Jose State 6-15 (1-8): Just win a damn game, AFA. The Falcons are on a nasty slide. This is the one MWC team that's worse than they are. Can they beat them on the road? SJSU favored by 2

Stanford 11-8 (4-4) @ Utah 16-5 (5-3): The Utes look like they've found their form over the last 3 games, sweeping the Wash. schools on the road and beating a solid Cal team. Stanford is coming off getting trounced in Boulder. Despite the mediocre record, Stanford's RPI remains a decent 50 and thus they're still in the Dance picture. A win in SLC (completing a sweep of Utah) would obviously be huge - Stanford is going to have to reel off a couple unexpected big wins down the stretch if they're to make it. Utes favored by 10.5

Nicholls State 5-16 (1-6) @ Incarnate Word 9-8 (4-2): Nicholls might not be the worst team in D1, but they're close. Not only do they suck, but they've seemingly given up on the season now with back to back losses to two fellow Southland cellar dwellers. Doubtful they win anymore games.

Colorado State 12-8 (4-3) @ Wyoming 10-12 (3-6): The weak MWC has allowed for CSU to keep the record respectable. CSU currently sits alone in 5th in the MWC and it's not out of the question that they could finish 4th. Says it all about how bad this conference is given the issues we know the Rams face. CSU isn't beating anyone worth a damn or winning road games aside from the bottom 2 MWC teams (SJSU, AFA) so the result is their RPI remains a horrible 196. Wyoming has dropped 3 straight and 4/5. Wyo favored by 3.5

Hampton 11-8 (7-1) vs Norfolk State 10-12 (6-1): Hampton is coming off its first conference loss of the season. They now lead their opponent, Norfolk State, by a half game. This may well be a preview of the conference tourney final that will determine who gets the NCAA Tournament bid. Hampton's RPI sits at 197. Hard to see it going much of anywhere even if they pile up the wins given the weakness of the conference.

Washington State 9-11 (1-7) @ UCLA 12-9 (3-5): UCLA is starting to enter serious hot water regarding the NCAA Tournament. Obviously there's a ton of time for UCLA to do what needs to be done, but sitting 12-9, tied for 9th in the Pac, and an RPI of 63 is dicey...and right after this they visit USC and Arizona. Wazzu is the chief victim of this brutal Pac12. Hawkinson and Iroegbu are nice pieces, but Wazzu can't compete on a nightly basis. They're capable of having their night though, evidenced by their win over UCLA in Pullman. Bruins favored by 12

Auburn 9-10 (3-5) vs Oklahoma State 10-10 (2-6): Kind of a bummer that Auburn is sitting with this record. I hoped for a bit more from them, but when you can't win road games this is what happens. Their RPI is still decent at 91. They've been pretty good at home, hopefully they step up and take care of business in this winnable game against Okie Lite. Pokes favored by 1.5

#13 SMU 18-1 (7-1) vs Memphis 13-7 (4-3): It'll be interesting to see how SMU responds coming off their first loss of the season. Given that SMU isn't eligible for the postseason and there was a ton of talk about the goal for the season being to go undefeated, it's entirely possible that SMU might be extremely deflated. Still, they're clearly the best side in the AAC and should handle this mediocre Memphis side (I'd imagine Pastner's seat is getting warmer). Mustangs favored by 9.5

Omaha 14-8 (6-2) vs South Dakota 10-12 (2-6): Omaha is coming off a loss at conference favorite South Dakota State. Now Omaha is tied atop the standings with SDSU, IPFW and IUPUI. South Dakota is poor and next to last. Omaha should roll. Favored by 8.5

Northern Colorado 7-13 (4-4) vs North Dakota 10-9 (5-3): The Bears have taken advantage of winnable games and put themselves right in the middle of the Big Sky. Given how horrendous they were OOC, they're having a nice little turnaround. If they won this, they'd be looking at making a move for 3rd (!) in the standings. Fighting Sioux favored by 1

Oregon State 12-7 (3-5) @ #18 Arizona 16-5 (4-4): Arizona's long home winning streak came to an end against the Ducks. This truly signaled that the Pac12 is up for grabs as the Wildcats are now tied for 6th (and don't face the Pac leading Ducks again). OSU is coming off a lopsided loss at ASU. That's not bad by itself...ASU was bound to win some games at some point. However, the Beavs have now lost 4/5 and their RPI has dropped to 65. What looked like it might be the first OSU team to make the Dance in a good 25 years is starting to fade away. It's a rough ride to the finish for OSU. A ton of opportunity to boost the resume, but more realistically a fair amount of losses awaiting them. Hard to fathom Arizona dropping back to back home games. Wildcats favored by 13

BYU 15-7 (6-3) vs Pepperdine 14-7 (7-3): BYU sits in 4th in the WCC, a half game behind Pepperdine. They've also got 2nd place Gonzaga and 1st place St. Mary's coming to Provo. Thus, they've got a shot to make a run at the title despite having a couple stupid losses. Their RPI sits 67, it'd be great if they could finish strong and make a move towards being a top 50 win. BYU favored by 9.5

Portland 9-14 (3-7) vs Santa Clara 7-15 (3-7): Another "should win" for Portland, but they've already lost about 5 "should wins" this season. Portland favored by 5.5
 
USC tops Washington at the Galen Center, so the Huskies fall back to the 3 loss group and Oregon is alone in first on 2 losses
 
Beavs are playing Zona tough in Tucson so far. 51-47 Wildcats, 11 min

Northern Colorado tops North Dakota. UNCo now 5-4 in the Big Sky...nice work in conference play
 
BYU took care of business against Pepperdine. BYU is now up to 59 in the RPI. Sure would be nice for BYU to get inside that top 50 to count as an OOC quality win for us.
 
Sunday:

Buffs 16-5 (5-3) vs Cal 14-7 (4-4): Cal is without Wallace, but don't be tricked into thinking they aren't capable of beating CU now. They've knocked off Arizona and played UCLA tough on the road. Their young talent has been putting up some big numbers. This is another key game for a top 4 bye spot. After this, Cal returns to Berkeley for a 3 game home stand while CU has a nasty trip to Eugene. Cal's RPI is now up to a solid 33. With Oregon State and Stanford both fading, CU could really really use this to add to the resume as a quality win. Right now it's Oregon and not much of anything. Live RPI gives the Buffs a 57% chance of victory. Buffs favored by 3.5

#23 Oregon 17-4 (6-2) @ Arizona State 12-9 (2-6): The Ducks are fresh off a huge win in Tucson and now sit alone in first place. Oregon has dropped just 1 game since Jan 3: CU. Arizona State finally put a stop to their losing with a blowout win over Oregon State. ASU is not as bad as their record indicates: 3 of their Pac losses are by 5 or less. Another is by 7. They've knocked off 5th ranked Texas A&M by 13. Their RPI is 66 (how many conferences have their 11th place team anywhere near 66? The Pac is insane) and a win here would suddenly vault ASU all the way up to about 50. If ASU wins this, they'll give themselves a chance to climb a couple spots up the Pac12. However, it's going to be difficult as the back half of their schedule includes visits to Tucson, Boulder. SLC, and Seattle. Ducks favored by 2
 
CU RPI at 20 with the win. Let's see if the national media continues to ignore a 17-5 (6-3) side with such a solid RPI. With another quality win on a Sunday evening I'd brace myself for the Buffs remaining largely under the radar.
 
CVilleBuff said:
CU RPI at 20 with the win. Let's see if the national media continues to ignore a 17-5 (6-3) side with such a solid RPI. With another quality win on a Sunday evening I'd brace myself for the Buffs remaining largely under the radar.
Click to expand...
Do you think we're going to need to beat zona or Oregon to get ranked?
 
Daaah said:
Do you think we're going to need to beat zona or Oregon to get ranked?
Click to expand...

Since we only received 1 vote this past week, it seems like it would be a huge jump to get ranked this week even though we're very arguably deserving of it. And then with the Buffs very likely to lose at least 1 game this week on the road...who knows when it will ever happen unless the pollsters finally collectively take notice that there's a 17-5 side with a really good RPI and correct it. These Sunday evening games seem to largely get lost in the shuffle, though..
 
Buffs won't be ranked unless they sweep on the road this week, unfortunately. If you put Arizona's name next to our resume we might be in the top 20. If they're still in the top 25 tomorrow at 5-4 I might vomit.
 
We SHOULD be ranked tomorrow, but given where we are currently in the minds of voters, I doubt it will happen.

The only thing that gives me hope is several teams that were ranked this week in the 16-25 range lost games this week, and many of the teams receiving more votes than us also lost games.
 
**** it, let's go scum debils! That would technically put us in first with the tie breaker in our favor.

37-36 ducks at the half
 
I wouldn't mind Oregon beating ASU tonight and moving up in the polls. Then we can stomp them in their house on Thursday to claim first place.
 
Monday:

#13 SMU 19-1 (8-1) @ Houston 15-6 (5-4): Kelvin Sampson is breathing some life into this Houston program. This is a sneaky tough game on the road, but SMU should be aware of that seeing as they only beat Houston by 4 when the Cougars paid the Mustangs a visit a couple weeks back. SMU is the one ranked team of the conference and has the target on their back. You can bet they'll get Houston's best shot again. SMU favored by 4.

Nicholls State 5-17 (1-7) @ New Orleans 7-12 (3-5): It's painful even listing Nicholls. They are absolutely abysmal.
 
Why did we even schedule Nicholls? Even more reason to hate Bernardi. I'm guessing it was a nice favor to Bernardi's bro who is AD there
 
For those not happy with a lack of a Top 25 rating for CU right now:

There are 3 ranked teams with 5 losses: Duke, ND, and Witchita St. None have an RPI worse than 33rd. 2 of those 3 lost this week and may be falling out when the new rankings get posted.
 
Highlander said:
For those not happy with a lack of a Top 25 rating for CU right now:

There are 3 ranked teams with 5 losses: Duke, ND, and Witchita St. None have an RPI worse than 33rd. 2 of those 3 lost this week and may be falling out when the new rankings get posted.
Click to expand...

USC was ranked in Week 11 and dropped for Week 12 after losing two games, but they still received 27 votes (to our 1 vote). Utah hasn't been ranked since Week 8, but have been receiving votes each week including 5 last week (again to our 1 vote). USC and Utah both went 2-0 this week along with us. There's no way we will be ranked because we're not going to jump both of them and there's no way all three of us move up that far. That's what sucks about not getting ranked early.

EDIT: I also meant to point out we have the same overall and conference record as those two schools.
 
sliderNcider said:
Why did we even schedule Nicholls? Even more reason to hate Bernardi. I'm guessing it was a nice favor to Bernardi's bro who is AD there
Click to expand...

IIRC, the Nicholls BB game was part of the package deal to get the 1-and-done football game.
 
Rugged said:
USC was ranked in Week 11 and dropped for Week 12 after losing two games, but they still received 27 votes (to our 1 vote). Utah hasn't been ranked since Week 8, but have been receiving votes each week including 5 last week (again to our 1 vote). USC and Utah both went 2-0 this week along with us. There's no way we will be ranked because we're not going to jump both of them and there's no way all three of us move up that far. That's what sucks about not getting ranked early.

EDIT: I also meant to point out we have the same overall and conference record as those two schools.
Click to expand...

This. Beating SMU and/or Utah was our chance. Would have been ranked the next week if we'd have won either game.

Just need to keep the RPI # in the top 30 before heading to Vegas. Who knows, get a road split this week, and sweep the Washington schools at home next week, and getting ranked is possible.
 
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