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Official Buffs Dance Resume Thread

You have got to be ****ing kidding me, BYU. Lose at home to 6 win Pacific. Stick a fork in BYU finishing top 50.

CSU took control late to beat Nevada. Rams 13-10 but RPI horrid
 
Big win for Arizona at Washington. Both now have 4 losses. It would be foolish to not expect Zona to make a push over these final few weeks, but catching Oregon will be very tough as the Ducks have the tiebreaker (they only play once) and a 2 game advantage

Hampton with a horrible loss to Maryland-Eastern Shore.

Auburn down 11 at Georgia in the second

This is an abysmal day for our opponents.
 
Whoa, whoa, whoa: ****ING HAWAII IS GETTING VOTES AND CU ISN'T?!

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I know CU lost twice last week (albeit on the road at RPI #3 and #33 by 4 points), but Hawaii is 106 in the RPI!
 
Denver_sc said:
Whoa, whoa, whoa: ****ING HAWAII IS GETTING VOTES AND CU ISN'T?!

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I know CU lost twice last week (albeit on the road at RPI #3 and #33 by 4 points), but Hawaii is 106 in the RPI!
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There is only one 7 loss team in the Top 25 and they also have a higher RPI rank than us. If I am not mistaken the section committee will take things like you are suggesting into to consideration. That being said, if we were a top 25 team, we'd have won those two games.
 
MiamiBuffs said:
There is only one 7 loss team in the Top 25 and they also have a higher RPI rank than us. If I am not mistaken the section committee will take things like you are suggesting into to consideration. That being said, if we were a top 25 team, we'd have won those two games.
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It's semantics, but Texas has 8 losses.

Secondly, I have no illusions about CU having performed like a top 25 team to date, but there are 46 teams that received votes last week and CU wasn't one of them. I strongly believe that CU is a top 40 team and has performed like one, and that's the point. There are 3 teams receiving votes with 7 losses (Notre Dame, Utah, and Michigan) and one with 8 losses (LSU). There's also a slew of 6 loss teams (San Diego State, Seton Hall, VCU, UNC Wilmington, Connecticut) All of whom have lower RPI ranks than the Buffs.

But the most egregious to me is Hawaii, who has two wins against a top 100 opponent, both are against UCSB. UCSB is barely in the top 100 and considering they play number 256 and 264 this week, they'll likely be out either way.

If Hawaii has played 2 games against teams better than CU's worst loss and lost both of them, how could you possibly know they're any better than CU?
 
Denver_sc said:
It's semantics, but Texas has 8 losses.

Secondly, I have no illusions about CU having performed like a top 25 team to date, but there are 46 teams that received votes last week and CU wasn't one of them. I strongly believe that CU is a top 40 team and has performed like one, and that's the point. There are 3 teams receiving votes with 7 losses (Notre Dame, Utah, and Michigan) and one with 8 losses (LSU). There's also a slew of 6 loss teams (San Diego State, Seton Hall, VCU, UNC Wilmington, Connecticut) All of whom have lower RPI ranks than the Buffs.

But the most egregious to me is Hawaii, who has two wins against a top 100 opponent, both are against UCSB. UCSB is barely in the top 100 and considering they play number 256 and 264 this week, they'll likely be out either way.

If Hawaii has played 2 games against teams better than CU's worst loss and lost both of them, how could you possibly know they're any better than CU?
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Voters don't look that deep.
 
I think we should ignore "others receiving votes." 3 people thought Hawaii belongs in the top-25? Not even worth complaining about. Perhaps it would make sense to put out a weekly "top-25" RPI listing alongside the major polls. After all polls are opinion-oriented and RPI is based on data.
 
Denver_sc said:
It's semantics, but Texas has 8 losses.

Secondly, I have no illusions about CU having performed like a top 25 team to date, but there are 46 teams that received votes last week and CU wasn't one of them. I strongly believe that CU is a top 40 team and has performed like one, and that's the point. There are 3 teams receiving votes with 7 losses (Notre Dame, Utah, and Michigan) and one with 8 losses (LSU). There's also a slew of 6 loss teams (San Diego State, Seton Hall, VCU, UNC Wilmington, Connecticut) All of whom have lower RPI ranks than the Buffs.

But the most egregious to me is Hawaii, who has two wins against a top 100 opponent, both are against UCSB. UCSB is barely in the top 100 and considering they play number 256 and 264 this week, they'll likely be out either way.

If Hawaii has played 2 games against teams better than CU's worst loss and lost both of them, how could you possibly know they're any better than CU?
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Colorado needs to finish the season strong and things will take care of themselves. It starts with winning the remaining home games.
 
cnbuff410 said:
Both ISU and SMU lost. Horrible day for us.
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Not really. Still 28th. At this point, the only thing that could be considered a horrible day for us is losing to a bad team like WSU. We need to take care of home court and try to get one road win the rest of the way, and we should be fine.
 
Medford M. said:
Not really. Still 28th. At this point, the only thing that could be considered a horrible day for us is losing to a bad team like WSU. We need to take care of home court and try to get one road win the rest of the way, and we should be fine.
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Agreed, just don't see the one road win part. I think every little bit of RPI helps.
 
cnbuff410 said:
Agreed, just don't see the one road win part. I think every little bit of RPI helps.
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Besides it gives us an interest in a lot more games than just when the Buffs play. Ultimately you can choose to pay attention only when the Buffs play (clearly the outcome of those games has the greatest influence on our position), or keep an eye on how our opponents do. Although I'm not convinced that caring about whether Nichols wins actually has anything to do with whether they win.
 
Saturday:

Buffs 18-7 (7-5) vs Washington 15-9 (7-5): Every game is big this time of year, but this one is especially key both for Pac12 seeding purposes and the NCAA Tournament. The loser of this game will not end up with a top 4 bye. There's certainly no guarantee the winner will, but they'll live to fight another day. Besides, even if both CU and UW end up without the bye, I'd much rather be a 5 seed facing Wazzu than a 6 seed facing ASU or Stanford. For NCAA Tournament hopes, if CU loses this the picture suddenly becomes pretty desperate. It's no secret that the remaining schedule is rough. A loss and suddenly there is a very real possibility of CU winning 1 remaining regular season game (ASU). For UW, they're 15-9 and have an RPI on 57. They're likely out if the season ends today. A top 50 road win can be the difference. They're eyeing a banged up CU that they smoked in Seattle as their chance to make a move. UW is going to want to make this a high scoring affair. Buffs favored by 3.5

Omaha 16-10 (8-4) vs North Dakota State 16-9 (6-5): Omaha had two miserable losses to W. Illinois and Denver, but got back on track with a top 50 win over league leader S. Dakota State. Those two awful losses likely killed Omaha's chances of a top 100 RPI (currently 134) and their hopes to get the 1 seed for the conference tournament, but they're in good shape to be a 2 or 3 seed. While SDSU is the favorite, I wouldn't be overly shocked if Omaha ended up in the Dance. Omaha favored by 4.

BYU 18-8 (9-4) @ Santa Clara 9-16 (5-8): BYU's inability to stay focused and take care of business against the dregs of the WCC will cost them an at-large ticket next month. This team had the talent to do it, but losses to Portland and Pacific are just killers. They showed what they're capable of last time out: Emery hit 10 threes and the Cougs steamrolled San Fran, hanging 114 on the road. But, those two bad losses have BYU with an RPI of 71 instead of the 40s. Gonzaga is the only decent opponent remaining. BYU favored by 10.5

#11 Oregon 20-5 (9-3) @ Stanford 11-11 (4-7): Oregon got killed in Berkeley, but now comes a likely cure: Stanford. The Cardinal have dropped 4 in a row, all by 12+ and have thus gone from being on the edge of the NCAA Tournament discussion to now likely finishing the season below .500 and thus not even being eligible for the NIT. Is the end finally here for Dawkins? Oregon, meanwhile, is still in good shape to win the Pac12 regular season if they take care of business in Palo Alto. 3 of their final 5 are in Eugene and they hold that crucial tiebreaker over Arizona. Ducks favored by 7

Nicholls State 7-18 (3-8) @ Southeastern Louisiana 5-18 (3-7): Suddenly Nicholls decided that they wanted to win a few more before the season ended. After that horrid losing streak, they've now won their last two including an 11 point win over one of the top sides in their conference. Their RPI has shot all the way up to 307. Does this have the early makings of a Final Four run?

Northern Colorado 8-16 (5-7) @ Eastern Washington 14-10 (8-4): The Bears have dropped 3 straight as they hit a difficult part of their Big Sky slate. Still a couple more winnable games down the stretch, but winning at EWU is highly unlikely. EWU favored by 13

Auburn 9-14 (3-8) vs Vanderbilt 14-10 (6-5): What a disappointing year for Auburn, things are falling apart for Pearl it seems. Cant has now left the team. The Tigers have now dropped 6 in a row, losing all by double digits. It's made all the worse by the fact that essentially every SEC game is at least somewhat "winnable". You face mediocre teams game after game in the SEC. Auburn has closed up shop for the year at this point. Who knows when this losing streak will end. Vandy favored by 10

Penn State 12-12 (3-8) @ Nebraska 13-12 (5-7): For all its limitations, PSU may actually still finish the season with a winning record. After this, remaining games include: @ Rutgers, and Nebraska, Illinois and Northwestern all at home. PSU is coming off a win over Indiana, so they're still battling. A PSU win in Lincoln is unlikely, but not out of the question against this odd Nebraska side. With PSU's RPI already sitting at 105, it's certainly not out of the question that we end up with a surprise extra top 100 win in our pocket. Corn favored by 6.5

Oregon State 15-8 (6-6) @ Cal 16-8 (6-5): The Beavs can taste the NCAA Tournament. They want it badly. Just when they were left for dead, they've reeled off 3 straight wins (with help from the refs) over Utah, CU and @ Stanford. As a result, their RPI is suddenly all the way up to 32 and they are building themselves a case. However, OSU has 4/6 remaining games on the road, and its nasty: @ Cal, @ Oregon, @ USC, @ UCLA. Besides, Cal also wants a Dance bid. The Bears looked like a side that woke up to the reality that it might be slipping away and came out and destroyed Oregon by 20. Cal also has an unkind finish: after OSU, Cal has 4/6 on the road, including a visit to Arizona, and the 2 home games being a difficult USC/UCLA swing. This is a big one for both sides as wins are going to be difficult to obtain down the stretch. Have to give Cal the edge at home. Bears favored by 9

#14 Iowa State 17-7 (6-5) vs #24 Texas 16-8 (7-4): ISU's stock is sinking a bit, having dropped 3/4. In fact, they're all the way down to sitting alone in 6th in the Big XII. They can climb back up the standings in a hurry with some wins, but this Texas side is playing good basketball and clearly has confidence right now. Cyclones favored by 5.5

Colorado State 14-10 (6-5) @ UNLV 14-11 (5-7): Fresh off of being the beneficiary of one of the worst overturned calls ever (maybe the worst?), CSU heads to Vegas. It's testament to just how ****ty the MWC is that CSU is sitting with this record. Mediocre SDSU is cruising and everyone else is complete crap. However, maybe, just maybe, CSU can get into the top 150 and at least give us a little return on our CSU/Auburn road wins that have gone to ****. A road win here would bring CSU mighty close. UNLV favored by 7

Air Force 12-13 (3-9) @ San Diego State 18-7 (11-1): This is going to get ugly. Aztecs favored by 18

#16 SMU 20-3 vs Gonzaga 20-5: Unsurprisingly, SMU has lost a lot of motivation after dropping their first game. They don't have anything to play for now, and it shows. They've dropped 3 of 5. This should be a fun game, but Gonzaga knows what this win can do for its resume. We'll see if SMU shows up. Mustangs favored by 6
 
Obviously the CU win was the main thing that mattered today. It also got the Buffs a game clear of UW in the Pac-12 standings (currently alone in 4th, pending other results). Moved CU to RPI 25.

But a lot currently happening that could help the Buffs beyond that.

Omaha already took down a solid North Dakota State squad, improving to 17-10, RPI 124.

Louisville is up 43-36 on Notre Dame at half. Doesn't sound significant, but it is. Projection is that if Louisville wins, it moves from RPI 28 to 22 while ND drops from 22 to 27. It's like CU moving up a spot since Louisville won't be playing in the postseason.

Stanford leads Oregon by 4 at the half. If the Trees won, it would pretty much guarantee that those stay as Top 100 wins for the Buffs. It would also bring us within a game of 1st place for the conference title.

BYU (18-8, RPI 70) can snare a road win today at Santa Clara. Very nice for the CU resume if they keep winning.

Virginia is up at Duke (RPI 18) deep into the 1st half. Home loss would bring Duke back toward the Buffs and within easy striking distance.
 
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