darth-horax
Well-Known Member
CU-34
WSU-21
WSU-21
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Official Buffs vs. Washington State Score Prediction Thread
- Thread starter Duff Man
- Start date
Looking at only conference play:
Points Scored: WSU 45.3 (#1), CU 32.0
Points Against: WSU 23.0, CU 17.1 (#1)
Yards Gained: WSU 518.7 (#1), CU 451.1
Yards Against: WSU 371.7, CU 338.0 (#1)
I think I see a trend in there...
Pass Offense WSU: 382.3 (#2)
Pass Defense CU: 201.4 (#2)
Pass Efficiency WSU: 160.6 (#1)
Pass D Efficiency CU: 108.4 (#2)
KO Returns: WSU 24.9 (#1), CU 17.4
KO Coverage: WSU 37.7, CU 39.7 (this is average net yardage from the KO spot, so CU has been 2 yards better on this one - may be an altitude thing)
Punt Returns: WSU 16.1 (#1), CU 11.9
Net Punting: WSU 34.6, CU 38.6
FGs: WSU 5-7, CU 10-15 (and we have Price back, who is 4-5)
Sacks By: WSU 15, CU 23 (#1)
Sacks against: WSU 17, CU 19 (edit - 6 of those conference play sacks were against Montez)
TO Margin: WSU +7, CU +4 (Montez had 4 INTs in conference play, take those out and we are +8)
Footnote: No team in the Pac 12 has successfully converted an onside kick in conference play. 4 total attempts, none by or against either WSU or CU.
What does this all mean? It confirms what we already knew. It is the #1 WSU offense going against the #1 CU defense, while the solid, but not spectacular CU offense goes against a WSU defense that has fared much better than historical Mike Leach teams. WSU is much better on special teams than I anticipated, but not enough to give them an outright advantage, IMO.
My prediction? WSU gets most of theirs, but ultimately, defense trumps offense with a timely turnover in the 4th quarter.
CU 33, WSU 28 - and CU goes 10-1 against the spread for the season.
Points Scored: WSU 45.3 (#1), CU 32.0
Points Against: WSU 23.0, CU 17.1 (#1)
Yards Gained: WSU 518.7 (#1), CU 451.1
Yards Against: WSU 371.7, CU 338.0 (#1)
I think I see a trend in there...
Pass Offense WSU: 382.3 (#2)
Pass Defense CU: 201.4 (#2)
Pass Efficiency WSU: 160.6 (#1)
Pass D Efficiency CU: 108.4 (#2)
KO Returns: WSU 24.9 (#1), CU 17.4
KO Coverage: WSU 37.7, CU 39.7 (this is average net yardage from the KO spot, so CU has been 2 yards better on this one - may be an altitude thing)
Punt Returns: WSU 16.1 (#1), CU 11.9
Net Punting: WSU 34.6, CU 38.6
FGs: WSU 5-7, CU 10-15 (and we have Price back, who is 4-5)
Sacks By: WSU 15, CU 23 (#1)
Sacks against: WSU 17, CU 19 (edit - 6 of those conference play sacks were against Montez)
TO Margin: WSU +7, CU +4 (Montez had 4 INTs in conference play, take those out and we are +8)
Footnote: No team in the Pac 12 has successfully converted an onside kick in conference play. 4 total attempts, none by or against either WSU or CU.
What does this all mean? It confirms what we already knew. It is the #1 WSU offense going against the #1 CU defense, while the solid, but not spectacular CU offense goes against a WSU defense that has fared much better than historical Mike Leach teams. WSU is much better on special teams than I anticipated, but not enough to give them an outright advantage, IMO.
My prediction? WSU gets most of theirs, but ultimately, defense trumps offense with a timely turnover in the 4th quarter.
CU 33, WSU 28 - and CU goes 10-1 against the spread for the season.
Last edited:
8Jah
Well-Known Member
Tom me the Leach offense is a spin the wheel and see what you get kind of thing. I have no prediction on this one.
No team in the country relies more on their QB. Faulk has to function at 110% night in and night out. The teams that have slaughtered the cougs over the past few years have gotten consistent, very physical pressure on the QB. I also think we have to put up points early and stay out of any deficit situation because we don't want to give the coug D an advantage.
No team in the country relies more on their QB. Faulk has to function at 110% night in and night out. The teams that have slaughtered the cougs over the past few years have gotten consistent, very physical pressure on the QB. I also think we have to put up points early and stay out of any deficit situation because we don't want to give the coug D an advantage.
HDcoug
Active Member
This is true. The biggest difference in this years team seems to be our OL. Falk still g tsp sacked a good bit, but that is mainly due to how often we pass (sack per drop back numbers are ok), and we run a good bit more this year. It is hard to rattle Falk, as he just seems to move on unless he gets injured, and unlike Halliday he is not opposed to hitting his check downs. Closest thing in the Pac-12 is Cal, but they are more prone to the deep ball and running, where we nickle and dime teams to death. Basically we test the patience of most defenses.
I think the difference will end up being red zone conversion rate for both sides. That sounds like a "duh" statement, but I think it holds particularly true this week.
Wazzu is #7 in the country in TD percentage for red zone offense while CU is #22 in the country in TD percentage for red zone defense. Conversely, CU is #58 in TD percentage for red zone offense while Wazzu is #73 in TD percentage for red zone defense. Strength against strength and (relative) weakness against weakness.
goddamn it's going to be a hell of a game.
Why would we have a goalline stand in a 23 - 24 game? Wouldn't they kick the field goal?
I really think it will be a good game, but there will be lots of scores from Cougs and we will likely trail for a good bit of the game.
can we take a shot to the mouth and come back swinging? can we win in a shootout? while the D may take a couple TD's away from them that they are accustomed to getting, they won't take them all.
I don't like this game one bit - glad it's at home
can we take a shot to the mouth and come back swinging? can we win in a shootout? while the D may take a couple TD's away from them that they are accustomed to getting, they won't take them all.
I don't like this game one bit - glad it's at home
BleedCrimsonandGray
Well-Known Member
The karma is not even. The rally squad saw fit to run Ralphie through our sideline and our players in 1996. Bush league.
Cougs 42
Buffs 31
No. You just learned an important lesson. If a Buffalo is running, get out of the damn way.
All the statistical stuff makes this a coin flip game of strengths on strengths. Glad we're playing at home. Looks like Vegas is going to see it that way, too, with pretty much a home field spread on the game.
I can't wait for Saturday. Great matchup.
I can't wait for Saturday. Great matchup.
CU has a better record than it should against the Pirate. Barnett's teams beat them pretty regularly, even when TT appeared to be the better team. Embree beat them, for goodness' sakes. I hope GB has given MM and JL some pointers on defending the Pirate's offense.
Yup... Ralphie goes the same path every game (unless she gets loose... WHEEE). Nobody is gonna change her path that much. Don't stand there.
Give him a break - they don't know these things.
Opposing coaches are told not to bring their teams out before Ralphie runs. You ignore that advice, then you run the risk of being trampled.
Ask Bill Snyder about it, he saw fit to ignore the advice too. Once.
CitizenKane
Well-Known Member
As many have said, this is a tough game to pick. I think the CU DB's are going to have a great game and shut down the WSU receivers. But, I am greatly worried about the WSU running backs against our linebackers in pass defense. Morrow out of the backfield is a particularly adept pass catcher and game changer.
Here is to hoping that JMFL blitzes like a mad man and puts the DB's in tight press coverage taking away the quick throw. Then WSU will have to decide whether to leak the RB's out for swing passes, getting Falk crushed on repeated plays and risking the rest of their season, or to leave the RB's in to pick up the blitz in hopes their WR group can do better than anyone else has against CU's DB's. I said last year that I thought Falk was the best QB in the PAC12 and I still think that...but pressure is the great equalizer.
If the pressure gets to Falk the Buffs win...if WSU is able to get the backs one on one against our LB's they will win.
Here is to hoping that JMFL blitzes like a mad man and puts the DB's in tight press coverage taking away the quick throw. Then WSU will have to decide whether to leak the RB's out for swing passes, getting Falk crushed on repeated plays and risking the rest of their season, or to leave the RB's in to pick up the blitz in hopes their WR group can do better than anyone else has against CU's DB's. I said last year that I thought Falk was the best QB in the PAC12 and I still think that...but pressure is the great equalizer.
If the pressure gets to Falk the Buffs win...if WSU is able to get the backs one on one against our LB's they will win.
not only the RB out of the backfield, the TE...does WSU use one as a pass catcher often?
CitizenKane
Well-Known Member
The WSU offense doesn't utilize a tight end in the traditional sense. They have no one listed at the position and none of their WR's are really big enough to play there. Huge saving grace for the CU D.
HDcoug
Active Member
No TE in our O. Normally 4 WR and a RB, or 3 and 2 RB (although Morrow or Williams are likely to catch a pass from the two back set). The main thing is to keep you D patient. We will complete lots of short stuff looking to brak some YAC. If you look yardage per attempt we are pretty low. The OL is pretty good this year, watch Oconnel from the LG spot as a run blocker...love watching him play. A guy who is 6'8" and 356 should not be able to get downfield like that. Looking forward to a great injury free game.
This doesn't sound right. Safety is a big deal when running Ralphie, and the path is cleared and monitored. Can I get a citation on this?
I'm open to being wrong here, but this sounds like a false narrative; the sort of myth perpetuated by fan bases to stoke anger at another team.
Aside from calling you a ****ing liar on your opening post, welcome. I'm looking forward to this game.
Just reviewed the scores for home (CU) and away (WSU), and the numbers improve for CU. Though, I didn't review O/D yards (though I suspect they move favorably in CU's directions as well). Also, it should be noted that the sampling is so small, it really boils down to the teams played; so it doesn't tell us much, except what we already know: So far this season, CU has been much stronger at home, as has WSU.
What's a rally squad?
I'm still laughing at this assertion. Can you imagine the conversation that led up to this alleged event?
Ralphie Runner 1: You know what? I think we should just run Ralphie through their team.
Ralphie Runner 2. What? That's a horrible idea. You know that we would never be able to run Ralphie again if something like that happened!
RR1: I think it's worth it.
RR2: Dude. It's Washington State. Why is it worth it?
RR1: I dunno. Just seems like something we should do.
RR2: Dude. It's ****ing Washington State! They've had only a few 8 win or better seasons in the last 25 years. They're not in our conference. We have no history with them.
RR1: They annoy me.
RR2: What? How? Nobody, and I mean NOBODY outside of UW fans hates Washington State! I mean...it's Washington State for ****'s sake! They're the lovable losers. They're from Pullman. Dude. Washington State! Now if it were nebraska, then maybe it would be worth it.
RR1 Their coach seems creepy.
RR2: Well, he won't be there for long. Some big time program will probably snatch him up.
RR1: Have you seen their quarterback? That Ryan Leaf guy? I hate the way he breathes through is mouth.
RR2: **** it! Let's do this!
None of this matters without knowing how the rally squad planned their attack.
did they act alone? it's a conspiriseh!
I figured the conversation would go:
RR1: "Here's whiskey!"
RR2-5, 20 minutes later:"Whiskey's gone, what do we do now?"
RR1: "fuch toose fooking coooogs. RUN RALPHE RUN"
RR1: "Here's whiskey!"
RR2-5, 20 minutes later:"Whiskey's gone, what do we do now?"
RR1: "fuch toose fooking coooogs. RUN RALPHE RUN"