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Official CU RPI Watch 2016-17

hokiehead said:
4. and, we only play UA, USC and Stanford once. fvck me, we need to win, schedule is not going to do it for us.
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We play the Arizona schools away, the LA schools home. We get Stanford twice. This has to be the weakest possible RPI PAC schedule for this year, unfortunately. Especially with UCLA looking so good, and Oregon sputtering to start the year.
 
CU's RPI actually improved to 107 yesterday. Likely going to see a good improvement to our strength of schedule as programs like Texas start banking wins.

Games we care about for Sunday, 12-11:

Alabama at #24 Oregon (4pm, ESPNU)
Savannah State at Oregon State (4pm, PACN)
Nevada at Washington (6pm, PACN)
Pepperdine at USC (8pm, PACN)

Last night, there was supposed to have been a Portland at Boise State game, but it got postponed due to flights out of Portland getting cancelled. Hopefully that gets rescheduled because that was a significant SOS game for Portland (record of opponent's opponents is very important to CU's RPI calculation & Boise State should be a winning team).
 
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Oregon State just did a good job of hurting Pac-12 teams' RPI by losing to Savannah State at home.
 
35506_bear_polar_bear_facepalm.jpg
 
Only 1 game tonight and Seattle actually notched a win. Every little bit helps.
 
GoonieBuff said:
Oregon State just did a good job of hurting Pac-12 teams' RPI by losing to Savannah State at home.
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Yikes... someone who knows more about CBB can correct me if I'm wrong, but this season is setting up as pretty much a nightmare scenario for the Buffs as a whole:
  • Lost to the wrong teams OOC, and missed opportunities for good wins, so the RPI is much lower than we would have thought at this point.
  • Have a weak remaining OOC schedule, so even if the Buffs win out will probably enter into P12 play with a RPI outside of 100
  • rest of the P12 is worse than projected outside of UCLA, who is WAYYYY better than projected- there are only 5 teams in the top 100 RPI currently
  • The P12 schedule sets up pretty poorly to improve RPI as mentioned due to home/away games
It looks like the Buffs will have to play MUCH better in conference play than I would expect them to be capable of given their performances to date to get their RPI up into the top 40-50, OR win the P12 tournament to get into the tourney. With UCLA playing like they are right now, it would seem unlikely to win the tournament.

So, even though it's early, tourney hopes are looking pretty shaky to me. Am I wrong?
 
Denver_sc said:
Yikes... someone who knows more about CBB can correct me if I'm wrong, but this season is setting up as pretty much a nightmare scenario for the Buffs as a whole:
  • Lost to the wrong teams OOC, and missed opportunities for good wins, so the RPI is much lower than we would have thought at this point.
  • Have a weak remaining OOC schedule, so even if the Buffs win out will probably enter into P12 play with a RPI outside of 100
  • rest of the P12 is worse than projected outside of UCLA, who is WAYYYY better than projected- there are only 5 teams in the top 100 RPI currently
  • The P12 schedule sets up pretty poorly to improve RPI as mentioned due to home/away games
It looks like the Buffs will have to play MUCH better in conference play than I would expect them to be capable of given their performances to date to get their RPI up into the top 40-50, OR win the P12 tournament to get into the tourney. With UCLA playing like they are right now, it would seem unlikely to win the tournament.

So, even though it's early, tourney hopes are looking pretty shaky to me. Am I wrong?
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There are concerns, but it's too early to panic. There is still a lot of funky numbers out there in RPI land, that will normalize. A lot of your analysis is good, but the BYU and Notre Dame losses should not be problematic to RPI, as long as BYU doesn't **** the bed in WCC play, they'll win a lot of games. Losing to the "wrong teams" in OOC is losing to Sac. St., La.-Monroe or Seattle. CSU loss isn't good, but also isn't crippling. Overall Pac-12 weakness could be a problem though, depends on if there is bunch of teams hovering around .500 or if the league stratifies.
 
If team is in top 5 in conference play they will have 20-24 wins. Sure many will abandon ship with the tough opening schedule. Need to find a way to win 3 which would have some good wins

Utah on road
Arizona on road
ASU on road
USC Ucla at home
 
It's not looking good, honestly. Dom should try for a medical if he's not back fairly soon. What's the word on his injury anyway?
 
Oregon rolled in the 2nd half.

Today is another light day for games we care about. UCLA hosts UCSB at 8:30 on PACN and Arizona hosts Grand Canyon at 9:00 on ESPNU.
 
Goose said:
Still early.
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Exactly. What do they have, 2 losses? Against a very tough schedule while their best player was out for much of it? Oregon will be right there in the Pac-12 and nationally this year.
 
Buffnik said:
Exactly. What do they have, 2 losses? Against a very tough schedule while their best player was out for much of it? Oregon will be right there in the Pac-12 and nationally this year.
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And, this should go without saying, but anyone screaming "DOOM" about the Buffs this year needs to chill too. The team is exactly where a lot of people thought they would be preseason.
 
Team one game behind last years pace. Has a victory over ranked non conference opponent (Xavier). Until conference play plays out you don't know either positively or negatively.
 
I don't think 20 wins gets them in. I assume you mean 20 wins before the conference tournament? That's 10-3 going into conference play, then 10-8 in a mediocre conference, which won't get it done. I think they need the next 3 OOC games, 12-6 in conference (with home wins over Oregon and UCLA) and 1-2 wins in the Pac-12 tournament. Even that resume is probably the dreaded 8/9 seed.
 
Goose said:
And, this should go without saying, but anyone screaming "DOOM" about the Buffs this year needs to chill too. The team is exactly where a lot of people thought they would be preseason.
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Minus the CSU loss which killed RPI
 
Thursday, we got a couple good results.

Wofford notched a good home win over Austin Peay, which came in at 4-5.
Seattle beat a horrible Mississippi Valley State team, but a win is a win.

Today, we've got the following on the docket:

Portland hosts a good South Dakota (8-4) squad.
Stanford plays a meaningless D2 game.
Oregon State hosts Long Beach State, which is 2-10 but has played its typically brutal schedule and is likely much better than its record.
 
Sacramento St vs Abilene Christian later on tonight
Lousiana-Monroe down 7 to Northwestern State with 15 minutes left
#21 Notre Dame lost 86-81 to #15 Purdue
Texas lost to Arkansas 77-74
CSU lost to Kansas State 89-70
#17 Xavier and Wake Forest later on tonight
BYU and Illinois later on tonight
Utah up on Prairie View A&M 48-23 with 1 minute left in the 1st half
Arizona State and New Mexico State later on tonight
#19 Arizona beat Texas A&M 67-63
#2 UCLA beat Ohio State 86-73
#24 USC and Troy later on tonight
Washington State beat Santa Clara 69-68
#22 Oregon and UNLV later on tonight
Cal and Cal Poly later on tonight
 
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Louisiana Monroe lost to Northwestern State 68-64
Xavier beat Wake Forest 69-65
Utah beat Prairie View 92-60
Arizona State lost to New Mexico State 81-70
Cal beat Cal Poly 81-55
 
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