I updated the OP through February 10th games.
Here's the current CU Team Sheet that the NCAA Selection Committee will use:
Of Note:
Record is really bad against certain groups and we really need some opponents to move up in categories.
Currently, CU has a non-winning record against Top 50 (2-5), 51-100 (1-1) and 101-200 (4-5).
BYU, CSU and Texas into the Top 100 and Portland into the Top 200 would seriously improve the resume.
This isn't even an NIT team right now.
The good news:
Opportunity to change everything by winning these final 6 games.
Washington State tomorrow would get the record against 101-200 to .500. Still bad, but at least not a losing record.
Stanford and Utah rematches at home would get the record against 51-100 to 3-1. That's really good.
Cal at home and Oregon on the road would get the record against 1-50 to 4-5. That's also really good.
Sweep would also push CU's conference record to 10-8, which would be very Dance-worthy.
Where CU can probably slip up:
Oregon on the road. 3-6 against Top 50, 9-9 in Pac-12 and they're ranked so high that losing on the road probably even helps RPI.
If we lose to Oregon, I don't think we can lose any other games and still Dance. If we beat Oregon, we could probably afford to slip up and still have a shot, but it would be a very tough path.
Absolutely must beat Washington State tomorrow and beat Oregon State on the road Thursday.
Pac-12 Tourney:
Our best case is probably to be the 7-seed or 8-seed. Ideally, we want Stanford in the 8-9 game opener (with a win) and then take our shot at Arizona where a neutral loss wouldn't hurt, probably help, and a win would cement a very strong tourney resume.
Summary:
Hope is still alive and CU controls its destiny to make the NCAA Tourney even without winning the Pac-12 Tournament.
It will take one hell of a finish, though.
Any help from teams ahead of us in RPI losing and our non-conference opponents notching wins the rest of the way is absolutely huge for the Buffs.